MIRZA S H A H A B BAIG - Profile on Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by MIRZA S H A H A B BAIG
Emerging Challenges to Food Production and Security in Asia, Middle East, and Africa
Tunisia is a small North-African country with a dry Mediterranean climate. It is among the poores... more Tunisia is a small North-African country with a dry Mediterranean climate. It is among the poorest countries in terms of water availability (450 m 3 /capita/year). With 516,000 farms, the agricultural sector occupies 65% of the country's land, contributes with 12.6% to the GDP, and employs 15% of the labor force. The agricultural production represents 9% of the total export earnings. Besides cereals (wheat and barley), Tunisian farmers grow olives, dates, and fresh fruits for both export and domestic consumption. Meat and vegetables are also important consumption commodities. The main agricultural exports are olive oil, dates and citrus. The EU is the principal trading partner for Tunisia. Agricultural products, mainly cereals, represent 8% of total imports and agricultural trade balance is negative (about 40% deficit). Most of climate change projection models foresee a significant decrease (10-35%) in rainfall and an increase (1.9-2.9°C) in temperature during this century. It is expected that climate change will affect negatively many sectors (i.e., tourism, health, etc.) but the heaviest impacts will affect the agricultural sector as it depends largely on natural resources (soil, water, etc.) and meteorological conditions. The main impacts of climate change on Tunisian
Emerging Challenges to Food Production and Security in Asia, Middle East, and Africa
Tunisia is a small North-African country with a dry Mediterranean climate. It is among the poores... more Tunisia is a small North-African country with a dry Mediterranean climate. It is among the poorest countries in terms of water availability (450 m 3 /capita/year). With 516,000 farms, the agricultural sector occupies 65% of the country's land, contributes with 12.6% to the GDP, and employs 15% of the labor force. The agricultural production represents 9% of the total export earnings. Besides cereals (wheat and barley), Tunisian farmers grow olives, dates, and fresh fruits for both export and domestic consumption. Meat and vegetables are also important consumption commodities. The main agricultural exports are olive oil, dates and citrus. The EU is the principal trading partner for Tunisia. Agricultural products, mainly cereals, represent 8% of total imports and agricultural trade balance is negative (about 40% deficit). Most of climate change projection models foresee a significant decrease (10-35%) in rainfall and an increase (1.9-2.9°C) in temperature during this century. It is expected that climate change will affect negatively many sectors (i.e., tourism, health, etc.) but the heaviest impacts will affect the agricultural sector as it depends largely on natural resources (soil, water, etc.) and meteorological conditions. The main impacts of climate change on Tunisian
Critical Perspectives on Emerging Economies
One of the economic phenomena that affects every citizen, almost every day, is inflation (Reddy 1... more One of the economic phenomena that affects every citizen, almost every day, is inflation (Reddy 1999). Monetary policy is considered to be an essential policy response for the control of inflation. One of the key elements of the Washington Consensus is that low and stable inflation is critical for market-driven growth and monetary policy is the most direct determinant of inflation (Bernanke et al. 1999). Monetary policy being the most flexible tool for achieving stabilization in the short run, has led central banks around the world to strive for developing strategies to control inflation and contribute to the stability and growth of the respective economies. Inflation targeting is one of those strategies which New Zealand pioneered, followed by Canada, the United Kingdom, and others. Currently, 41 countries (both developing and developed countries) following different exchange rate regimes have adopted the inflation targeting framework. The list of countries following inflation targeting regimes are presented in Appendix, Table 7.1). Inflation targeting is defined loosely as a monetary policy strategy characterized by public announcement of quantitative targets of inflation rate for a particular period, and by the explicit acknowledgment that price stability is the primary goal of monetary policy in the long run. The other features of the monetary policy framework are an instrument and operational independence, transparency in policymaking, and accountability of the monetary authority. These features are the critical components of the inflation targeting framework (Kamber et al. 2015; Walsh 2015). According to Bernanke et al. (1999), the inflation targeting framework serves two essential functions in an economy, i.e., (1) improving communication between policymakers and the public, and (2) the accountability and discipline in monetary
Critical Perspectives on Emerging Economies
One of the economic phenomena that affects every citizen, almost every day, is inflation (Reddy 1... more One of the economic phenomena that affects every citizen, almost every day, is inflation (Reddy 1999). Monetary policy is considered to be an essential policy response for the control of inflation. One of the key elements of the Washington Consensus is that low and stable inflation is critical for market-driven growth and monetary policy is the most direct determinant of inflation (Bernanke et al. 1999). Monetary policy being the most flexible tool for achieving stabilization in the short run, has led central banks around the world to strive for developing strategies to control inflation and contribute to the stability and growth of the respective economies. Inflation targeting is one of those strategies which New Zealand pioneered, followed by Canada, the United Kingdom, and others. Currently, 41 countries (both developing and developed countries) following different exchange rate regimes have adopted the inflation targeting framework. The list of countries following inflation targeting regimes are presented in Appendix, Table 7.1). Inflation targeting is defined loosely as a monetary policy strategy characterized by public announcement of quantitative targets of inflation rate for a particular period, and by the explicit acknowledgment that price stability is the primary goal of monetary policy in the long run. The other features of the monetary policy framework are an instrument and operational independence, transparency in policymaking, and accountability of the monetary authority. These features are the critical components of the inflation targeting framework (Kamber et al. 2015; Walsh 2015). According to Bernanke et al. (1999), the inflation targeting framework serves two essential functions in an economy, i.e., (1) improving communication between policymakers and the public, and (2) the accountability and discipline in monetary
Emerging Challenges to Food Production and Security in Asia, Middle East, and Africa
Pakistan is primarily an agrarian country with an agriculture sector that is a major source of ec... more Pakistan is primarily an agrarian country with an agriculture sector that is a major source of economic activities, foreign exchange earnings, and the livelihood of the majority of population, caretaker of food and nutritional security, a means to combat rural poverty, and a supplier of raw material for the industries. Out of the total area of 79.6 million hectares, 22.1 million hectares are cultivated of which almost 80% is irrigated and supported with world's largest contiguous canal irrigation system called Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS). However, dependency of this system on transboundary waters is more than 77%. The country has a huge rural population of 132.2 million (more than 64% of total population) which is engaged in some way in on-farm or off-farm activities related to agriculture. Population growth and urbanization are exerting more pressure on the already looming water crisis. This situation is catalyzed by the ever-changing climate. It is estimated that about 70% percent of the total average flows in the Indus system are fed by snow and glacier melt in the Hindu-Kush Karakoram (HKK) part of the Greater Himalayas. Variation in the trends and timing of snowfall and changes in snow and ice melt are erratically occurring due to the climate change, which would have grave implications for managing the basin's water resources. This disturbance in the balance of primary source of irrigation-i.e., the IBIS-would have serious implications on the agriculture sector of Pakistan which, in turn, would be a threat for the national food M. U. Munir (B) • A.
Emerging Challenges to Food Production and Security in Asia, Middle East, and Africa
Pakistan is primarily an agrarian country with an agriculture sector that is a major source of ec... more Pakistan is primarily an agrarian country with an agriculture sector that is a major source of economic activities, foreign exchange earnings, and the livelihood of the majority of population, caretaker of food and nutritional security, a means to combat rural poverty, and a supplier of raw material for the industries. Out of the total area of 79.6 million hectares, 22.1 million hectares are cultivated of which almost 80% is irrigated and supported with world's largest contiguous canal irrigation system called Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS). However, dependency of this system on transboundary waters is more than 77%. The country has a huge rural population of 132.2 million (more than 64% of total population) which is engaged in some way in on-farm or off-farm activities related to agriculture. Population growth and urbanization are exerting more pressure on the already looming water crisis. This situation is catalyzed by the ever-changing climate. It is estimated that about 70% percent of the total average flows in the Indus system are fed by snow and glacier melt in the Hindu-Kush Karakoram (HKK) part of the Greater Himalayas. Variation in the trends and timing of snowfall and changes in snow and ice melt are erratically occurring due to the climate change, which would have grave implications for managing the basin's water resources. This disturbance in the balance of primary source of irrigation-i.e., the IBIS-would have serious implications on the agriculture sector of Pakistan which, in turn, would be a threat for the national food M. U. Munir (B) • A.
Climate Change, Food Security and Natural Resource Management
The Republic of Yemen with its coordinates 12° and 17°N Latitude and 43° and 56°E Longitude, loca... more The Republic of Yemen with its coordinates 12° and 17°N Latitude and 43° and 56°E Longitude, located in Western Asia, lies in the southwest Arabian Peninsula. The country has rugged surface features composed of mountains, hills, plateaus, plains, and valleys (FAO 2009). Spreading over an area of 536,000 km 2 , comprising many islands in the Red Sea and Arabian Sea. The country is bordered by Saudi Arabia to the north, Oman to the east, the Arabian Sea to the south and the Red Sea to the west. The country has been divided into 20 governorates, which are further divided into districts. With Yemen's estimated population of 26.2 million (World Bank 2015), about 80% live in the rural areas (IFAD 2015). Agriculture is the prime sector in economic development, contributing about 17.5% towards GDP (NASS 2012) and the main source of employment accommodating almost 54% of the population (FAO 2009). Yemen is a low-income country and GDP amounts to USD 33.76 billion with GDP per capita averaging USD 1361 in nominal terms (World Bank 2011; IFAD 2013). Playing an important role in the economy, agriculture sector generates about 20% of
Climate Change, Food Security and Natural Resource Management
The Republic of Yemen with its coordinates 12° and 17°N Latitude and 43° and 56°E Longitude, loca... more The Republic of Yemen with its coordinates 12° and 17°N Latitude and 43° and 56°E Longitude, located in Western Asia, lies in the southwest Arabian Peninsula. The country has rugged surface features composed of mountains, hills, plateaus, plains, and valleys (FAO 2009). Spreading over an area of 536,000 km 2 , comprising many islands in the Red Sea and Arabian Sea. The country is bordered by Saudi Arabia to the north, Oman to the east, the Arabian Sea to the south and the Red Sea to the west. The country has been divided into 20 governorates, which are further divided into districts. With Yemen's estimated population of 26.2 million (World Bank 2015), about 80% live in the rural areas (IFAD 2015). Agriculture is the prime sector in economic development, contributing about 17.5% towards GDP (NASS 2012) and the main source of employment accommodating almost 54% of the population (FAO 2009). Yemen is a low-income country and GDP amounts to USD 33.76 billion with GDP per capita averaging USD 1361 in nominal terms (World Bank 2011; IFAD 2013). Playing an important role in the economy, agriculture sector generates about 20% of
This research is aimed to develop a 10-year risk prediction model and identify key contributing C... more This research is aimed to develop a 10-year risk prediction model and identify key contributing Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) risk factors. A Cox proportional hazard regression method was adopted to design and develop the risk model. We used Framingham Original Cohort dataset of 5079 men and women aged 30 62 years, who had no overt symptoms of CVD at the baseline. Out of them, 3189 (62.78%) had an actual CVD event. A 10-year CVD risk model based on multiple risk factors (such as age, sex, body mass index (BMI), hypertension, systolic blood pressure, cigarettes per day, pulse rate, and diabetes) was developed in which heart rate was identified as one of the novel contributing risk factors. We validated the model via statistical and empirical validation methods. The proposed model achieved an acceptable discrimination and calibration with C-index (receiver operating characteristic (ROC)) being 0.71 from the validation dataset.
This research is aimed to develop a 10-year risk prediction model and identify key contributing C... more This research is aimed to develop a 10-year risk prediction model and identify key contributing Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) risk factors. A Cox proportional hazard regression method was adopted to design and develop the risk model. We used Framingham Original Cohort dataset of 5079 men and women aged 30 62 years, who had no overt symptoms of CVD at the baseline. Out of them, 3189 (62.78%) had an actual CVD event. A 10-year CVD risk model based on multiple risk factors (such as age, sex, body mass index (BMI), hypertension, systolic blood pressure, cigarettes per day, pulse rate, and diabetes) was developed in which heart rate was identified as one of the novel contributing risk factors. We validated the model via statistical and empirical validation methods. The proposed model achieved an acceptable discrimination and calibration with C-index (receiver operating characteristic (ROC)) being 0.71 from the validation dataset.
Sustainable Agriculture and Food Security in Egypt: Implications for Innovations in Agricultural Extension
Climate Change, Food Security and Natural Resource Management
Egypt has been famous for its productive and prominent agriculture for many centuries. For the pa... more Egypt has been famous for its productive and prominent agriculture for many centuries. For the past two decades, its agricultural sector has faced innumerable constraints and issues, lowering its yields and limiting economic returns. Agricultural Extension and Advisory Service has played an appreciable role in elevating crop yields, that in turn contributed towards national economy and improved rural livelihoods. However, due to multiple distortions, National Extension System needs to be revisited. The chapter examines the present fuctioning of extension system, identifies the constraints faced by the agriculture sector and the shortcomings of the agricultural extension department. Based on these analyses, improvement measures have been suggested and viable and workable development strategies outlined for improving the working of extension. The objective of the chapter is to optimise farmer practices in sustainable agriculture to achieve food security. The information provided could be helpful to the farmers, the planners and the policy makers to develop the agricultural sector on sound footings by employing scientific principles and practices of sustainable agriculture to achieve food security in the country. An improved extension system can help realize sustainable agriculture and achieve food security if strong links are established among Egyptian Agricultural Departments (Agricultural Reseach and Development) and National Agricultural Extension Service (NAES). Further it is important to have a strong coordination to ehance the working efficiency of the both departments to meet national needs.
Sustainable Agriculture and Food Security in Egypt: Implications for Innovations in Agricultural Extension
Climate Change, Food Security and Natural Resource Management
Egypt has been famous for its productive and prominent agriculture for many centuries. For the pa... more Egypt has been famous for its productive and prominent agriculture for many centuries. For the past two decades, its agricultural sector has faced innumerable constraints and issues, lowering its yields and limiting economic returns. Agricultural Extension and Advisory Service has played an appreciable role in elevating crop yields, that in turn contributed towards national economy and improved rural livelihoods. However, due to multiple distortions, National Extension System needs to be revisited. The chapter examines the present fuctioning of extension system, identifies the constraints faced by the agriculture sector and the shortcomings of the agricultural extension department. Based on these analyses, improvement measures have been suggested and viable and workable development strategies outlined for improving the working of extension. The objective of the chapter is to optimise farmer practices in sustainable agriculture to achieve food security. The information provided could be helpful to the farmers, the planners and the policy makers to develop the agricultural sector on sound footings by employing scientific principles and practices of sustainable agriculture to achieve food security in the country. An improved extension system can help realize sustainable agriculture and achieve food security if strong links are established among Egyptian Agricultural Departments (Agricultural Reseach and Development) and National Agricultural Extension Service (NAES). Further it is important to have a strong coordination to ehance the working efficiency of the both departments to meet national needs.
The paper explores the investment and trading strategies for the Indian stock market using daily ... more The paper explores the investment and trading strategies for the Indian stock market using daily data for the CNX 100 companies over the period 01 April 2009 to 31 March 2014. The paper sets up the argument for beta and debt-equity ratio as the important variables for explaining the investment and trading strategies for Indian stock market. Following mean reversion principle without advocating for it, we also develop the strategy for trading in the stock market. The study uses data analysis techniques and arrives at the findings that long term investment in the stocks with low beta and low debt-equity ratio provide higher return, though short term trading the stocks with high beta and high debt-equity ratio provide high return in the short time period. The financial service sector shows that service sector provides very high return in the short time period and low return in the long run as compared to returns from the average stocks.
The paper explores the investment and trading strategies for the Indian stock market using daily ... more The paper explores the investment and trading strategies for the Indian stock market using daily data for the CNX 100 companies over the period 01 April 2009 to 31 March 2014. The paper sets up the argument for beta and debt-equity ratio as the important variables for explaining the investment and trading strategies for Indian stock market. Following mean reversion principle without advocating for it, we also develop the strategy for trading in the stock market. The study uses data analysis techniques and arrives at the findings that long term investment in the stocks with low beta and low debt-equity ratio provide higher return, though short term trading the stocks with high beta and high debt-equity ratio provide high return in the short time period. The financial service sector shows that service sector provides very high return in the short time period and low return in the long run as compared to returns from the average stocks.
ERN: Monetary & Fiscal Policies in Emerging Markets (Topic), 2018
This study explores the linkage among aid volatility, macroeconomic policies, and economic growth... more This study explores the linkage among aid volatility, macroeconomic policies, and economic growth of Pakistan (1972-2015). We have empirically analyzed the impact of foreign aid volatility on economic growth conditional to the macroeconomic policy environment. For this purpose, we have constructed an index of macroeconomic policies through Principal Component Analysis. We find that volatile aid hinders the economic growth of Pakistan and impedes the expected positive outcomes of macroeconomic policies. By employing the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) technique, this study shows that foreign aid and foreign aid volatility both negatively affect economic growth under the current macroeconomic policy framework of Pakistan. These results suggest that foreign aid inflows can only be supportive within finance development and social welfare projects.
ERN: Monetary & Fiscal Policies in Emerging Markets (Topic), 2018
This study explores the linkage among aid volatility, macroeconomic policies, and economic growth... more This study explores the linkage among aid volatility, macroeconomic policies, and economic growth of Pakistan (1972-2015). We have empirically analyzed the impact of foreign aid volatility on economic growth conditional to the macroeconomic policy environment. For this purpose, we have constructed an index of macroeconomic policies through Principal Component Analysis. We find that volatile aid hinders the economic growth of Pakistan and impedes the expected positive outcomes of macroeconomic policies. By employing the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) technique, this study shows that foreign aid and foreign aid volatility both negatively affect economic growth under the current macroeconomic policy framework of Pakistan. These results suggest that foreign aid inflows can only be supportive within finance development and social welfare projects.
This study examines the profitability of the private commercial banks in Pakistan for the period ... more This study examines the profitability of the private commercial banks in Pakistan for the period of 2004-2013, utilizing the panel data analysis technique. The independent variables include microeconomic as well as macroeconomic variables. Among the performance measures, the asset quality and size indicated negative relationship with profitability of private commercial banks. The relationship between liquidity and efficiency with profitability was found to be positive. All the micro economic indicators including inflation, interest rate, and gross domestic product proved positively related with profitability.
This study examines the profitability of the private commercial banks in Pakistan for the period ... more This study examines the profitability of the private commercial banks in Pakistan for the period of 2004-2013, utilizing the panel data analysis technique. The independent variables include microeconomic as well as macroeconomic variables. Among the performance measures, the asset quality and size indicated negative relationship with profitability of private commercial banks. The relationship between liquidity and efficiency with profitability was found to be positive. All the micro economic indicators including inflation, interest rate, and gross domestic product proved positively related with profitability.
Journal of Animal and Plant Sciences, 2012
Agriculture is not environmentally ideal for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia ye tagricultural sector ... more Agriculture is not environmentally ideal for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia ye tagricultural sector receives great importance. The state has been making concerted efforts through its five -year development plansto develop its agriculture to en sure food security. Due to the supportiveand encouraging policies of the government, and able guidance from the extension service, farmers were able to enhance agricultural production andachieve self -sufficiency, at least to some extent.A voluminous litera ture indicates the state now exports its products such as wheat, dates, watermelon, poultry and fresh eggs and milk. The kingdom also produces some cereals like: wheat, sorghum, barley and millet in the regions rich in waterresources.Tomatoes, watermelons, eggplants,potatoes, cucumbersand onions arealso grown.
Journal of Animal and Plant Sciences, 2012
Agriculture is not environmentally ideal for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia ye tagricultural sector ... more Agriculture is not environmentally ideal for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia ye tagricultural sector receives great importance. The state has been making concerted efforts through its five -year development plansto develop its agriculture to en sure food security. Due to the supportiveand encouraging policies of the government, and able guidance from the extension service, farmers were able to enhance agricultural production andachieve self -sufficiency, at least to some extent.A voluminous litera ture indicates the state now exports its products such as wheat, dates, watermelon, poultry and fresh eggs and milk. The kingdom also produces some cereals like: wheat, sorghum, barley and millet in the regions rich in waterresources.Tomatoes, watermelons, eggplants,potatoes, cucumbersand onions arealso grown.
Emerging Challenges to Food Production and Security in Asia, Middle East, and Africa
Tunisia is a small North-African country with a dry Mediterranean climate. It is among the poores... more Tunisia is a small North-African country with a dry Mediterranean climate. It is among the poorest countries in terms of water availability (450 m 3 /capita/year). With 516,000 farms, the agricultural sector occupies 65% of the country's land, contributes with 12.6% to the GDP, and employs 15% of the labor force. The agricultural production represents 9% of the total export earnings. Besides cereals (wheat and barley), Tunisian farmers grow olives, dates, and fresh fruits for both export and domestic consumption. Meat and vegetables are also important consumption commodities. The main agricultural exports are olive oil, dates and citrus. The EU is the principal trading partner for Tunisia. Agricultural products, mainly cereals, represent 8% of total imports and agricultural trade balance is negative (about 40% deficit). Most of climate change projection models foresee a significant decrease (10-35%) in rainfall and an increase (1.9-2.9°C) in temperature during this century. It is expected that climate change will affect negatively many sectors (i.e., tourism, health, etc.) but the heaviest impacts will affect the agricultural sector as it depends largely on natural resources (soil, water, etc.) and meteorological conditions. The main impacts of climate change on Tunisian
Emerging Challenges to Food Production and Security in Asia, Middle East, and Africa
Tunisia is a small North-African country with a dry Mediterranean climate. It is among the poores... more Tunisia is a small North-African country with a dry Mediterranean climate. It is among the poorest countries in terms of water availability (450 m 3 /capita/year). With 516,000 farms, the agricultural sector occupies 65% of the country's land, contributes with 12.6% to the GDP, and employs 15% of the labor force. The agricultural production represents 9% of the total export earnings. Besides cereals (wheat and barley), Tunisian farmers grow olives, dates, and fresh fruits for both export and domestic consumption. Meat and vegetables are also important consumption commodities. The main agricultural exports are olive oil, dates and citrus. The EU is the principal trading partner for Tunisia. Agricultural products, mainly cereals, represent 8% of total imports and agricultural trade balance is negative (about 40% deficit). Most of climate change projection models foresee a significant decrease (10-35%) in rainfall and an increase (1.9-2.9°C) in temperature during this century. It is expected that climate change will affect negatively many sectors (i.e., tourism, health, etc.) but the heaviest impacts will affect the agricultural sector as it depends largely on natural resources (soil, water, etc.) and meteorological conditions. The main impacts of climate change on Tunisian
Critical Perspectives on Emerging Economies
One of the economic phenomena that affects every citizen, almost every day, is inflation (Reddy 1... more One of the economic phenomena that affects every citizen, almost every day, is inflation (Reddy 1999). Monetary policy is considered to be an essential policy response for the control of inflation. One of the key elements of the Washington Consensus is that low and stable inflation is critical for market-driven growth and monetary policy is the most direct determinant of inflation (Bernanke et al. 1999). Monetary policy being the most flexible tool for achieving stabilization in the short run, has led central banks around the world to strive for developing strategies to control inflation and contribute to the stability and growth of the respective economies. Inflation targeting is one of those strategies which New Zealand pioneered, followed by Canada, the United Kingdom, and others. Currently, 41 countries (both developing and developed countries) following different exchange rate regimes have adopted the inflation targeting framework. The list of countries following inflation targeting regimes are presented in Appendix, Table 7.1). Inflation targeting is defined loosely as a monetary policy strategy characterized by public announcement of quantitative targets of inflation rate for a particular period, and by the explicit acknowledgment that price stability is the primary goal of monetary policy in the long run. The other features of the monetary policy framework are an instrument and operational independence, transparency in policymaking, and accountability of the monetary authority. These features are the critical components of the inflation targeting framework (Kamber et al. 2015; Walsh 2015). According to Bernanke et al. (1999), the inflation targeting framework serves two essential functions in an economy, i.e., (1) improving communication between policymakers and the public, and (2) the accountability and discipline in monetary
Critical Perspectives on Emerging Economies
One of the economic phenomena that affects every citizen, almost every day, is inflation (Reddy 1... more One of the economic phenomena that affects every citizen, almost every day, is inflation (Reddy 1999). Monetary policy is considered to be an essential policy response for the control of inflation. One of the key elements of the Washington Consensus is that low and stable inflation is critical for market-driven growth and monetary policy is the most direct determinant of inflation (Bernanke et al. 1999). Monetary policy being the most flexible tool for achieving stabilization in the short run, has led central banks around the world to strive for developing strategies to control inflation and contribute to the stability and growth of the respective economies. Inflation targeting is one of those strategies which New Zealand pioneered, followed by Canada, the United Kingdom, and others. Currently, 41 countries (both developing and developed countries) following different exchange rate regimes have adopted the inflation targeting framework. The list of countries following inflation targeting regimes are presented in Appendix, Table 7.1). Inflation targeting is defined loosely as a monetary policy strategy characterized by public announcement of quantitative targets of inflation rate for a particular period, and by the explicit acknowledgment that price stability is the primary goal of monetary policy in the long run. The other features of the monetary policy framework are an instrument and operational independence, transparency in policymaking, and accountability of the monetary authority. These features are the critical components of the inflation targeting framework (Kamber et al. 2015; Walsh 2015). According to Bernanke et al. (1999), the inflation targeting framework serves two essential functions in an economy, i.e., (1) improving communication between policymakers and the public, and (2) the accountability and discipline in monetary
Emerging Challenges to Food Production and Security in Asia, Middle East, and Africa
Pakistan is primarily an agrarian country with an agriculture sector that is a major source of ec... more Pakistan is primarily an agrarian country with an agriculture sector that is a major source of economic activities, foreign exchange earnings, and the livelihood of the majority of population, caretaker of food and nutritional security, a means to combat rural poverty, and a supplier of raw material for the industries. Out of the total area of 79.6 million hectares, 22.1 million hectares are cultivated of which almost 80% is irrigated and supported with world's largest contiguous canal irrigation system called Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS). However, dependency of this system on transboundary waters is more than 77%. The country has a huge rural population of 132.2 million (more than 64% of total population) which is engaged in some way in on-farm or off-farm activities related to agriculture. Population growth and urbanization are exerting more pressure on the already looming water crisis. This situation is catalyzed by the ever-changing climate. It is estimated that about 70% percent of the total average flows in the Indus system are fed by snow and glacier melt in the Hindu-Kush Karakoram (HKK) part of the Greater Himalayas. Variation in the trends and timing of snowfall and changes in snow and ice melt are erratically occurring due to the climate change, which would have grave implications for managing the basin's water resources. This disturbance in the balance of primary source of irrigation-i.e., the IBIS-would have serious implications on the agriculture sector of Pakistan which, in turn, would be a threat for the national food M. U. Munir (B) • A.
Emerging Challenges to Food Production and Security in Asia, Middle East, and Africa
Pakistan is primarily an agrarian country with an agriculture sector that is a major source of ec... more Pakistan is primarily an agrarian country with an agriculture sector that is a major source of economic activities, foreign exchange earnings, and the livelihood of the majority of population, caretaker of food and nutritional security, a means to combat rural poverty, and a supplier of raw material for the industries. Out of the total area of 79.6 million hectares, 22.1 million hectares are cultivated of which almost 80% is irrigated and supported with world's largest contiguous canal irrigation system called Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS). However, dependency of this system on transboundary waters is more than 77%. The country has a huge rural population of 132.2 million (more than 64% of total population) which is engaged in some way in on-farm or off-farm activities related to agriculture. Population growth and urbanization are exerting more pressure on the already looming water crisis. This situation is catalyzed by the ever-changing climate. It is estimated that about 70% percent of the total average flows in the Indus system are fed by snow and glacier melt in the Hindu-Kush Karakoram (HKK) part of the Greater Himalayas. Variation in the trends and timing of snowfall and changes in snow and ice melt are erratically occurring due to the climate change, which would have grave implications for managing the basin's water resources. This disturbance in the balance of primary source of irrigation-i.e., the IBIS-would have serious implications on the agriculture sector of Pakistan which, in turn, would be a threat for the national food M. U. Munir (B) • A.
Climate Change, Food Security and Natural Resource Management
The Republic of Yemen with its coordinates 12° and 17°N Latitude and 43° and 56°E Longitude, loca... more The Republic of Yemen with its coordinates 12° and 17°N Latitude and 43° and 56°E Longitude, located in Western Asia, lies in the southwest Arabian Peninsula. The country has rugged surface features composed of mountains, hills, plateaus, plains, and valleys (FAO 2009). Spreading over an area of 536,000 km 2 , comprising many islands in the Red Sea and Arabian Sea. The country is bordered by Saudi Arabia to the north, Oman to the east, the Arabian Sea to the south and the Red Sea to the west. The country has been divided into 20 governorates, which are further divided into districts. With Yemen's estimated population of 26.2 million (World Bank 2015), about 80% live in the rural areas (IFAD 2015). Agriculture is the prime sector in economic development, contributing about 17.5% towards GDP (NASS 2012) and the main source of employment accommodating almost 54% of the population (FAO 2009). Yemen is a low-income country and GDP amounts to USD 33.76 billion with GDP per capita averaging USD 1361 in nominal terms (World Bank 2011; IFAD 2013). Playing an important role in the economy, agriculture sector generates about 20% of
Climate Change, Food Security and Natural Resource Management
The Republic of Yemen with its coordinates 12° and 17°N Latitude and 43° and 56°E Longitude, loca... more The Republic of Yemen with its coordinates 12° and 17°N Latitude and 43° and 56°E Longitude, located in Western Asia, lies in the southwest Arabian Peninsula. The country has rugged surface features composed of mountains, hills, plateaus, plains, and valleys (FAO 2009). Spreading over an area of 536,000 km 2 , comprising many islands in the Red Sea and Arabian Sea. The country is bordered by Saudi Arabia to the north, Oman to the east, the Arabian Sea to the south and the Red Sea to the west. The country has been divided into 20 governorates, which are further divided into districts. With Yemen's estimated population of 26.2 million (World Bank 2015), about 80% live in the rural areas (IFAD 2015). Agriculture is the prime sector in economic development, contributing about 17.5% towards GDP (NASS 2012) and the main source of employment accommodating almost 54% of the population (FAO 2009). Yemen is a low-income country and GDP amounts to USD 33.76 billion with GDP per capita averaging USD 1361 in nominal terms (World Bank 2011; IFAD 2013). Playing an important role in the economy, agriculture sector generates about 20% of
This research is aimed to develop a 10-year risk prediction model and identify key contributing C... more This research is aimed to develop a 10-year risk prediction model and identify key contributing Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) risk factors. A Cox proportional hazard regression method was adopted to design and develop the risk model. We used Framingham Original Cohort dataset of 5079 men and women aged 30 62 years, who had no overt symptoms of CVD at the baseline. Out of them, 3189 (62.78%) had an actual CVD event. A 10-year CVD risk model based on multiple risk factors (such as age, sex, body mass index (BMI), hypertension, systolic blood pressure, cigarettes per day, pulse rate, and diabetes) was developed in which heart rate was identified as one of the novel contributing risk factors. We validated the model via statistical and empirical validation methods. The proposed model achieved an acceptable discrimination and calibration with C-index (receiver operating characteristic (ROC)) being 0.71 from the validation dataset.
This research is aimed to develop a 10-year risk prediction model and identify key contributing C... more This research is aimed to develop a 10-year risk prediction model and identify key contributing Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) risk factors. A Cox proportional hazard regression method was adopted to design and develop the risk model. We used Framingham Original Cohort dataset of 5079 men and women aged 30 62 years, who had no overt symptoms of CVD at the baseline. Out of them, 3189 (62.78%) had an actual CVD event. A 10-year CVD risk model based on multiple risk factors (such as age, sex, body mass index (BMI), hypertension, systolic blood pressure, cigarettes per day, pulse rate, and diabetes) was developed in which heart rate was identified as one of the novel contributing risk factors. We validated the model via statistical and empirical validation methods. The proposed model achieved an acceptable discrimination and calibration with C-index (receiver operating characteristic (ROC)) being 0.71 from the validation dataset.
Sustainable Agriculture and Food Security in Egypt: Implications for Innovations in Agricultural Extension
Climate Change, Food Security and Natural Resource Management
Egypt has been famous for its productive and prominent agriculture for many centuries. For the pa... more Egypt has been famous for its productive and prominent agriculture for many centuries. For the past two decades, its agricultural sector has faced innumerable constraints and issues, lowering its yields and limiting economic returns. Agricultural Extension and Advisory Service has played an appreciable role in elevating crop yields, that in turn contributed towards national economy and improved rural livelihoods. However, due to multiple distortions, National Extension System needs to be revisited. The chapter examines the present fuctioning of extension system, identifies the constraints faced by the agriculture sector and the shortcomings of the agricultural extension department. Based on these analyses, improvement measures have been suggested and viable and workable development strategies outlined for improving the working of extension. The objective of the chapter is to optimise farmer practices in sustainable agriculture to achieve food security. The information provided could be helpful to the farmers, the planners and the policy makers to develop the agricultural sector on sound footings by employing scientific principles and practices of sustainable agriculture to achieve food security in the country. An improved extension system can help realize sustainable agriculture and achieve food security if strong links are established among Egyptian Agricultural Departments (Agricultural Reseach and Development) and National Agricultural Extension Service (NAES). Further it is important to have a strong coordination to ehance the working efficiency of the both departments to meet national needs.
Sustainable Agriculture and Food Security in Egypt: Implications for Innovations in Agricultural Extension
Climate Change, Food Security and Natural Resource Management
Egypt has been famous for its productive and prominent agriculture for many centuries. For the pa... more Egypt has been famous for its productive and prominent agriculture for many centuries. For the past two decades, its agricultural sector has faced innumerable constraints and issues, lowering its yields and limiting economic returns. Agricultural Extension and Advisory Service has played an appreciable role in elevating crop yields, that in turn contributed towards national economy and improved rural livelihoods. However, due to multiple distortions, National Extension System needs to be revisited. The chapter examines the present fuctioning of extension system, identifies the constraints faced by the agriculture sector and the shortcomings of the agricultural extension department. Based on these analyses, improvement measures have been suggested and viable and workable development strategies outlined for improving the working of extension. The objective of the chapter is to optimise farmer practices in sustainable agriculture to achieve food security. The information provided could be helpful to the farmers, the planners and the policy makers to develop the agricultural sector on sound footings by employing scientific principles and practices of sustainable agriculture to achieve food security in the country. An improved extension system can help realize sustainable agriculture and achieve food security if strong links are established among Egyptian Agricultural Departments (Agricultural Reseach and Development) and National Agricultural Extension Service (NAES). Further it is important to have a strong coordination to ehance the working efficiency of the both departments to meet national needs.
The paper explores the investment and trading strategies for the Indian stock market using daily ... more The paper explores the investment and trading strategies for the Indian stock market using daily data for the CNX 100 companies over the period 01 April 2009 to 31 March 2014. The paper sets up the argument for beta and debt-equity ratio as the important variables for explaining the investment and trading strategies for Indian stock market. Following mean reversion principle without advocating for it, we also develop the strategy for trading in the stock market. The study uses data analysis techniques and arrives at the findings that long term investment in the stocks with low beta and low debt-equity ratio provide higher return, though short term trading the stocks with high beta and high debt-equity ratio provide high return in the short time period. The financial service sector shows that service sector provides very high return in the short time period and low return in the long run as compared to returns from the average stocks.
The paper explores the investment and trading strategies for the Indian stock market using daily ... more The paper explores the investment and trading strategies for the Indian stock market using daily data for the CNX 100 companies over the period 01 April 2009 to 31 March 2014. The paper sets up the argument for beta and debt-equity ratio as the important variables for explaining the investment and trading strategies for Indian stock market. Following mean reversion principle without advocating for it, we also develop the strategy for trading in the stock market. The study uses data analysis techniques and arrives at the findings that long term investment in the stocks with low beta and low debt-equity ratio provide higher return, though short term trading the stocks with high beta and high debt-equity ratio provide high return in the short time period. The financial service sector shows that service sector provides very high return in the short time period and low return in the long run as compared to returns from the average stocks.
ERN: Monetary & Fiscal Policies in Emerging Markets (Topic), 2018
This study explores the linkage among aid volatility, macroeconomic policies, and economic growth... more This study explores the linkage among aid volatility, macroeconomic policies, and economic growth of Pakistan (1972-2015). We have empirically analyzed the impact of foreign aid volatility on economic growth conditional to the macroeconomic policy environment. For this purpose, we have constructed an index of macroeconomic policies through Principal Component Analysis. We find that volatile aid hinders the economic growth of Pakistan and impedes the expected positive outcomes of macroeconomic policies. By employing the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) technique, this study shows that foreign aid and foreign aid volatility both negatively affect economic growth under the current macroeconomic policy framework of Pakistan. These results suggest that foreign aid inflows can only be supportive within finance development and social welfare projects.
ERN: Monetary & Fiscal Policies in Emerging Markets (Topic), 2018
This study explores the linkage among aid volatility, macroeconomic policies, and economic growth... more This study explores the linkage among aid volatility, macroeconomic policies, and economic growth of Pakistan (1972-2015). We have empirically analyzed the impact of foreign aid volatility on economic growth conditional to the macroeconomic policy environment. For this purpose, we have constructed an index of macroeconomic policies through Principal Component Analysis. We find that volatile aid hinders the economic growth of Pakistan and impedes the expected positive outcomes of macroeconomic policies. By employing the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) technique, this study shows that foreign aid and foreign aid volatility both negatively affect economic growth under the current macroeconomic policy framework of Pakistan. These results suggest that foreign aid inflows can only be supportive within finance development and social welfare projects.
This study examines the profitability of the private commercial banks in Pakistan for the period ... more This study examines the profitability of the private commercial banks in Pakistan for the period of 2004-2013, utilizing the panel data analysis technique. The independent variables include microeconomic as well as macroeconomic variables. Among the performance measures, the asset quality and size indicated negative relationship with profitability of private commercial banks. The relationship between liquidity and efficiency with profitability was found to be positive. All the micro economic indicators including inflation, interest rate, and gross domestic product proved positively related with profitability.
This study examines the profitability of the private commercial banks in Pakistan for the period ... more This study examines the profitability of the private commercial banks in Pakistan for the period of 2004-2013, utilizing the panel data analysis technique. The independent variables include microeconomic as well as macroeconomic variables. Among the performance measures, the asset quality and size indicated negative relationship with profitability of private commercial banks. The relationship between liquidity and efficiency with profitability was found to be positive. All the micro economic indicators including inflation, interest rate, and gross domestic product proved positively related with profitability.
Journal of Animal and Plant Sciences, 2012
Agriculture is not environmentally ideal for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia ye tagricultural sector ... more Agriculture is not environmentally ideal for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia ye tagricultural sector receives great importance. The state has been making concerted efforts through its five -year development plansto develop its agriculture to en sure food security. Due to the supportiveand encouraging policies of the government, and able guidance from the extension service, farmers were able to enhance agricultural production andachieve self -sufficiency, at least to some extent.A voluminous litera ture indicates the state now exports its products such as wheat, dates, watermelon, poultry and fresh eggs and milk. The kingdom also produces some cereals like: wheat, sorghum, barley and millet in the regions rich in waterresources.Tomatoes, watermelons, eggplants,potatoes, cucumbersand onions arealso grown.
Journal of Animal and Plant Sciences, 2012
Agriculture is not environmentally ideal for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia ye tagricultural sector ... more Agriculture is not environmentally ideal for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia ye tagricultural sector receives great importance. The state has been making concerted efforts through its five -year development plansto develop its agriculture to en sure food security. Due to the supportiveand encouraging policies of the government, and able guidance from the extension service, farmers were able to enhance agricultural production andachieve self -sufficiency, at least to some extent.A voluminous litera ture indicates the state now exports its products such as wheat, dates, watermelon, poultry and fresh eggs and milk. The kingdom also produces some cereals like: wheat, sorghum, barley and millet in the regions rich in waterresources.Tomatoes, watermelons, eggplants,potatoes, cucumbersand onions arealso grown.