Pritha Mitra - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Pritha Mitra

(all SPR), Fabiana Machado and Celine Thevenot (FAD), and Pritha Mitra and Dominique Fayad (AFR)*... more (all SPR), Fabiana Machado and Celine Thevenot (FAD), and Pritha Mitra and Dominique Fayad (AFR)* DISCLAIMER: The IMF Notes Series aims to quickly disseminate succinct IMF analysis on critical economic issues to member countries and the broader policy community. The views expressed in IMF Notes are those of the author(s), although they do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, or its Executive Board, or its management.

This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views express... more This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. Emerging market financial crises during the late 1990s were marked by sudden withdrawals of funds by foreign creditors, resulting in production declines. The IMF favored positive signals to potential foreign creditors and initially recommended disciplined fiscal policy during the height of crisis, countering standard Keynesian recommendations of expansionary fiscal stimulus. This paper formulates an open-economy general equilibrium model for resolving this policy conundrum and analyzing the impact of disciplined fiscal policy on post-crisis recovery. The model demonstrates via simulations that disciplined fiscal policy will improve (worsen) post-crisis recovery in the presence (absence) of appropriately defined production flexibility

The Departmental Paper Series presents research by IMF staff on issues of broad regional or cross... more The Departmental Paper Series presents research by IMF staff on issues of broad regional or crosscountry interest. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Labor productivity levels in Bulgaria lag well behind that in the EU, weighing on the convergence... more Labor productivity levels in Bulgaria lag well behind that in the EU, weighing on the convergence process. Stronger productivity growth would allow Bulgaria to close the income gap with the EU average more quickly and to alleviate the structural problems in its labor market, reflected in its high long-term and youth unemployment. Our analysis of the drivers of labor productivity suggest that for Bulgaria closing the gap with EU standards in the areas of institutional and infrastructure quality, goods market efficiency, higher education, and innovation would permanently boost productivity growth by a total of 1 percentage point a year. This would be enough to close the income gap with the EU average by 2040, compared to the status quo where it would take an additional 10 years.

The recent boom-bust episode in Emerging Europe was largely the product of surges and sudden stop... more The recent boom-bust episode in Emerging Europe was largely the product of surges and sudden stops in capital inflows. This paper empirically argues that the sectors into which capital flows determines their impact on GDP growth. Applying data from EU New Member States, it is found that capital flows into real estate have a greater impact on swings in GDP than other sectors, irrespective of a country''s exchange rate or fiscal policy. Consequently, as new waves of capital inflows spread to emerging markets, policies may usefully focus on supporting capital inflows towards economic sectors that minimize large swings in GDP.Capital flows;Emerging markets;Central and Eastern Europe;Consumption;Bank credit;Capital inflows;Economic growth;Foreign direct investment;Real estate prices;real estate, net capital flows, net capital, domestic credit, capital inflow, equity investment, foreign capital, global capital flows, foreign capital flows, capital outflows, housing prices, real estate investment, real estate price, subsidiaries, external capital, investor confidence, credit expansion

University Microfilms International eBooks, 2005

... Learn more... ProQuest, Three essays in emerging market post-crisis recovery (Argentina, Thai... more ... Learn more... ProQuest, Three essays in emerging market post-crisis recovery (Argentina, Thailand). by Mitra, Pritha, PhD, COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY, 2005, 0 pages; 3174857. ... 2825). Advisor: Desai, Padma. School: COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY. ...

IMF staff discussion note, Sep 2, 2015

DISCLAIMER: Staff Discussion Notes (SDNs) showcase policy-related analysis and research being dev... more DISCLAIMER: Staff Discussion Notes (SDNs) showcase policy-related analysis and research being developed by IMF staff members and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in Staff Discussion Notes are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

IMF working paper, 2011

Since the late 1980s, Vietnam, Cambodia, PDR Lao, and Myanmar have been opening their economies t... more Since the late 1980s, Vietnam, Cambodia, PDR Lao, and Myanmar have been opening their economies to international trade and investment. With the exception of Myanmar, the reforms have yielded impressive results, but the process is far from complete. In this enlightening book, a group of leading scholars outline the continuing reform efforts needed to survive the current global recession and place these economies in a competitive position on the recovery of the world economy.

IMF working paper, 2012

International Monetary Fund eBooks, Mar 16, 2010

Low-income countries have been hit hard by the sharp increases in world food and fuel prices in 2... more Low-income countries have been hit hard by the sharp increases in world food and fuel prices in 2007-08 and subsequently by the global financial crisis and ensuing recession. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has responded quickly to the need of its low-income country members to address the impact of these global shocks. It has substantially scaled up its financial assistance to low-income countries and revamped its concessional lending facilities to make them more flexible. Together with the ongoing reforms to streamline structural conditionality, these efforts have formed an important part of the IMF's strategy to help low-income countries address the fallout from the crises. This Departmental Paper provides an initial empirical assessment of the outcome of these efforts and reforms. It examines the responsiveness of macroeconomic policies and structural conditionality in recent IMFsupported programs in a number of low-income countries. We hope the results of this exercise will help improve understanding of how IMFsupported programs in low-income countries have been adapted to the changing economic circumstances and which aspects of program design may need further improvement in the future. Many people contributed to the undertaking of this exercise and to the production of this paper. Hugh Bredenkamp, Deputy Director of the Strategy, Policy, and Review Department of the IMF, and Catherine Pattillo, Advisor and Chief of the Low-Income Countries Strategy Unit of the Department, oversaw the exercise and provided invaluable guidance. The paper benefited enormously from data and comments provided by many staff, both within and outside the Strategy, Policy, and Review Department. Neri Gomes helped with administrative and editorial work, and Joanne Blake and her team helped turn the original paper into this Departmental Paper. We are grateful to all these colleagues.

The MIT Press eBooks, Aug 29, 2008

Several emerging market economies around the globe were overtaken in the late nineties by severe ... more Several emerging market economies around the globe were overtaken in the late nineties by severe financial crises and subsequent recessions stretching into the new millennium. Surprisingly, a handful of them recovered more rapidly than others. What factors contributed to their quick turnaround? This paper argues that pre-crisis macroeconomic fundamentals are a crucial part of the recovery process. In particular, the strength of the pre-crisis export sector plays a significant role in renewing investor confidence and pushing post-crisis recovery. Comparing two crisis-afflicted economies of Argentina in post-2001 and Thailand in post-1997, we find that the pre-crisis difference in export sector strength between Argentina and Thailand provides significant explanation for the post-crisis difference in the interest rate and exchange rate movements between the two countries. Our model simulations suggest that Argentina's recovery path would have been stronger if it had Thailand's export sector potential in its pre-crisis years. By contrast, a strong fiscal status and high saving rate resembling Thai levels would not have helped Argentine recovery to the same extent.

IMF working paper, Feb 7, 2020

Global attention to ending child marriage and its socioeconomic consequences is gaining momentum.... more Global attention to ending child marriage and its socioeconomic consequences is gaining momentum. Ending child marriage is not only critical from a development perspective but it also has important economic implications. This paper is the first to quantify the relationship between child marriage and economic growth. Applying a simultaneous equations model, the analysis shows that eliminating child marriage would significantly improve economic growth-if child marriage were ended today, long-term annual per capita real GDP growth in emerging and developing countries would increase by 1.05 percentage points. The results also provide insights on policy prioritization in developing comprehensive strategies to end child marriage. For example, the strong interdependent relationship between education and child marriage suggests that education policies and the budgets that support them should place greater emphasis on reducing child marriage.

Social Science Research Network, 2015

Amid renewed crisis, falling tax revenues, and rising debt, Ukraine faces serious fiscal consolid... more Amid renewed crisis, falling tax revenues, and rising debt, Ukraine faces serious fiscal consolidation needs. Durable fiscal adjustment can support economic confidence and rebuild buffers but what is its overall impact on growth? How effective are revenue versus spending instruments? Does current or capital spending have a larger impact? Applying a structural vector autoregressive model, this paper finds that Ukraine's near-term revenue and spending multipliers are well below one. In the medium-term, the revenue multiplier becomes insignificant (with a wide confidence interval) and the spending multiplier strengthens. Capital and current spending have a similar effect on growth but the capital multiplier remains significant for longer. These results suggest near-term consolidation based on a combination of revenue and spending measures would have a modest impact on growth. At the same time, medium-term policies could minimize the adverse consequences of consolidation on growth by offsetting some current spending cuts with increased capital spending. Given the severe challenges facing the Ukrainian economy, it is important that policymakers apply these results in conjunction with broader considerations such as public debt sustainability, investor confidence, credibility of government policies, and public spending efficiency. Consequently, it may be necessary to rely more on current spending cuts over other types of consolidation measures even though multiplier estimates suggest a more diverse combination of measures.

Social Science Research Network, 2006

Staff Climate Notes

The IMF Notes Series aims to quickly disseminate succinct IMF analysis on critical economic issue... more The IMF Notes Series aims to quickly disseminate succinct IMF analysis on critical economic issues to member countries and the broader policy community. The IMF Staff Climate Notes provide analysis related to the impact of climate change on macroeconomic and financial stability, including on mitigation, adaptation, and transition. The views expressed in IMF Staff Climate Notes are those of the author(s), although they do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, or its Executive Board, or its management.

IMF Working Papers

: This paper assesses the impact of climate-related disasters on medium-term growth and analyzes ... more : This paper assesses the impact of climate-related disasters on medium-term growth and analyzes key structural areas that could substantially improve disaster-resilience. Results show that (i) climate-related disasters have a significant negative impact on medium-term growth, especially for sub-Saharan Africa; and (ii) a disaster’s intensity matters much more than its frequency, given the non-linear cumulative effects of disasters. In sub-Saharan Africa, electrification (facilitating irrigation) is found to be most effective for reducing damage from droughts while improved health care and education outcomes are critical for raising resilience to floods and storms. Better access to finance, telecommunications, and use of machines in agriculture also have a significant impact.

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, Mar 22, 2016