Mohammad Sheikh-el-eslami - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Mohammad Sheikh-el-eslami

Research paper thumbnail of Multi-Microgrid Energy and Reactive Power Market Scheduling

Journal of Iranian Association of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Apr 10, 2016

Research paper thumbnail of Hydro Thermal Unit Commitment involving Demand Response resources: a MILP formulation

Electrical Engineering, Oct 5, 2022

Research paper thumbnail of A stochastic framework for the grid integration of wind power using flexible load approach

Energy Conversion and Management, Dec 1, 2014

Wind power integration has always been a key research area due to the green future power system t... more Wind power integration has always been a key research area due to the green future power system target. However, the intermittent nature of wind power may impose some technical and economic challenges to Independent System Operators (ISOs) and increase the need for additional flexibility. Motivated by this need, this paper focuses on the potential of Demand Response Programs (DRPs) as an option to contribute to the flexible operation of power systems. On this basis, in order to consider the uncertain nature of wind power and the reality of electricity market, a Stochastic Network Constrained Unit Commitment associated with DR (SNCUCDR) is presented to schedule both generation units and responsive loads in power systems with high penetration of wind power. Afterwards, the effects of both price-based and incentive-based DRPs are evaluated, as well as DR participation levels and electricity tariffs on providing a flexible load profile and facilitating grid integration of wind power. For this reason, novel quantitative indices for evaluating flexibility are defined to assess the success of DRPs in terms of wind integration. Sensitivity studies indicate that DR types and customer participation levels are the main factors to modify the system load profile to support wind power integration.

Research paper thumbnail of Two-stage approach for optimal dispatch of distributed energy resources in distribution networks considering virtual power plant concept

International Transactions on Electrical Energy Systems, Dec 3, 2012

With increasing levels of distributed generation (DG) penetration, especially variable output one... more With increasing levels of distributed generation (DG) penetration, especially variable output ones, new challenges have appeared in electric power systems. The outputs of these generators are variable and determined largely by nature of the power sources such as wind, wave, and sunlight. One solution to decrease problems caused by the variable output of these resources is to aggregate them into a virtual power plant (VPP). The VPP is an energy management system tasked to aggregate the capacity of some DGs, storage facilities, and dispatchable loads (DL) for the purpose of energy trading and/or providing system support services. The economically optimal control of distributed energy resources (DERs) included in the VPP is complicated by uncertainties, nonlinearities, and inter-temporal constraints. Therefore, a novel two-stage dispatch framework is presented here for the integration of the stochastic and the controllable DERs in the distribution network through the VPP concept. The first stage deals with the VPP optimal bidding model (VOBM). A probabilistic price-based unit commitment using point estimate method (PEM) is used in the VOBM to allow the VPP to decide on the unit commitment of its DERs and the optimal bids to the day-ahead market. The second stage deals with active distribution network management. The distribution system operator uses input from the VOBM to manage any local network constraints and to determine the characteristics of the entire local network at the grid supply points, while seeking to minimize the hourly operation cost. The proposed optimization algorithm is applied to an 18-bus system.

Research paper thumbnail of Transmission cost allocation based on the users’ benefits

International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems, Oct 1, 2014

Abstract In a competitive electricity market, transmission can be viewed as being in competition ... more Abstract In a competitive electricity market, transmission can be viewed as being in competition with generation. The transmission network indeed allows remote generators to compete with local ones. Thus, transmission benefits are not the same for all and this fact is important in transmission cost allocation method. There are various methods to allocate the transmission costs among the network users; but the most of the proposed methods are only based on the transmission flow (or physical usage). This paper, focusing on transmission cost allocation in an economic way that is based on “users’ benefits”. This method is according to transmission value and direct beneficiaries of transmission which are indirectly related to transmission physical usage. The beneficiaries of each transmission facility are determined for each market participant (consumer and/or producer) by calculating its revenues with and without the facility. The proposed algorithm is applied to a 3-bus and 24-bus IEEE test system and their results are compared to popular Bialek’s tracing method.

Research paper thumbnail of Investigating the effects of flexible load in the grid integration of wind power

2014 IEEE PES T&D Conference and Exposition, Apr 1, 2014

Since the concerns for energy conservation and environment are growing, renewable energy resource... more Since the concerns for energy conservation and environment are growing, renewable energy resources are rapidly increasing, which lead to additional variability and uncertainty for the power system operators. The uncertainty imposes considerable technical and economic challenges to ISOs. According to recent advances in smart grid technologies, Demand Response Programs (DRPs) are expected to facilitate the integration of intermittent renewable energy resources into the grid. In this paper, DRPs are considered as an option to reduce and manage renewable energy resources uncertainty. On this basis, this paper proposes a flexible load approach with the application to wind power grid integration. In this context, and in order to model the reality of the power market, a network constrained unit commitment problem associated with DRPs is presented to clear the market transactions. Simulation results show that utilizing DRPs can improve grid integration of wind power, while making significant economic and technical benefits for the system. Index Terms-wind power grid integration, demand response programs, flexible load, network constrained market clearing formulations.

Research paper thumbnail of Optimal selling price and energy procurement strategies for a retailer in an electricity market

Electric Power Systems Research, 2009

In an electricity market, the retailer sets up contracts with the wholesale side for purchasing e... more In an electricity market, the retailer sets up contracts with the wholesale side for purchasing electricity and with the customers for its selling. This paper proposes a mathematical method based on mixedinteger stochastic programming to determine the optimal sale price of electricity to customers and the electricity procurement policy of a retailer for a specified period. The retailer has multiple choices for electricity procurement, such as spot market, forward contracts, call options and self-production. Risk is considered and modeled by conditional value-at-risk methodology. Also, the competition between retailers is modeled using a market share function. A case study is illustrated to demonstrate the capability of the proposed method.

Research paper thumbnail of A Linear Model for Wind Farms Preventive Maintenance Scheduling Considering the Wind Speed Uncertainty and Electricity Market Conditions

2022 9th Iranian Conference on Renewable Energy & Distributed Generation (ICREDG)

Research paper thumbnail of Intelligent Microgrid Energy Management System Based on Deep Learning Approach

2021 11th Smart Grid Conference (SGC), 2021

Recently, microgrids (MG) have emerged as an essential solution for smart grids. The MG efficient... more Recently, microgrids (MG) have emerged as an essential solution for smart grids. The MG efficiently aggregates dispersed distributed energy resources (DERs) and balances renewable energy output variability. Uncertainties of power generation resources and consumption have disruptive influences on MG optimal decision making. This article proposes an intelligent energy management system (EMS) for grid-connected MGs. A forecasting approach is employed based on the convolutional LSTM (long-short time memory) to overcome uncertainties and improve the performance of the energy management system. MG comprises wind turbines (WTs), photovoltaic (PV) panels, battery energy storage systems (BSS), and electrical loads. Also, we utilized the mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) approach to offer an optimal solution by minimizing operating costs. Finally, the study compares its performance over similar state-of-the-art models by employing available real datasets from California, San Diego MGs. The experimental results show strong evidence of the effectiveness of the proposed model.

Research paper thumbnail of Generation Expansion Planning Considering Investment Dynamic of Market Participants Using Multi-agent System

2018 Smart Grid Conference (SGC), 2018

This paper presents a model for generation expansion planning (GEP) using multi-agent system. A r... more This paper presents a model for generation expansion planning (GEP) using multi-agent system. A robust framework for modeling communications between market participants is proposed. Multi-agent simulation provides a capability for simulating interaction and communication among the market participants. The developed approach considers counteraction and influences of decisions made by generation companies (GenCos) in the level of investments, so GenCos investments in dynamic environment will be modeled. Reinforcement learning has been applied in order to smart out the agents and modeling the intellectual decision makers. In addition, fuel cost and load growth uncertainties have been considered. In this model, GenCos decisions are converge to the Nash equilibrium point. The environment of investment for each GenCo is defined in a way that it observes Markov property. So, the problem can be considered as an episodic decision making over years of planning. Using this approach, in a case study three incentive capacity mechanisms have been appraised.

Research paper thumbnail of Generation Expansion Planning with Considering Energy Efficiency Investments

Research paper thumbnail of Distributed Energy Resource Expansion Planning Considering Monte Carlo Simulation and Incomplete Information Game Theory

Journal of Iranian Association of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, 2015

Research paper thumbnail of Transition in Iran's Electricity Market Considering the Policies on Elimination of Electricity Subsidies: System Dynamics Application

International Journal of Industrial Engineering & Production Research, 2014

Because of electricity subsidies, electricity price in Iran is much lower than its real value, an... more Because of electricity subsidies, electricity price in Iran is much lower than its real value, and the growth of electricity demand is much more than its rational rate, which in turn implies ever increasing investment in the electricity section by the Government. Therefore, the recent Government policies are based on elimination of electricity subsidies, followed by commissioning complete electricity market to attract investors in the power industry. In this paper, a model is developed for electricity demand prediction and evaluating Iran's current electricity market and complete electricity market to deal with optimistic and pessimistic electricity demand. Hence, a system dynamics framework is applied to model and generate scenarios because of its physical capability and information flows that allow understanding the behavior of nonlinear dynamics in uncertain conditions. To validate the model, it was compared with the available actual data within 21 years, since (1988-2008). A...

Research paper thumbnail of A new hybrid model for point and probabilistic forecasting of wind power

Energy, 2020

The accurate and reliable forecasting of wind power is of great importance for electrical systems... more The accurate and reliable forecasting of wind power is of great importance for electrical systems' control and operation. However, the intermittent nature of wind power generation implies a complicated forecasting framework. In this paper, a new hybrid model including three steps is proposed for point and probabilistic forecasting of wind power. Within the first step, by using data preprocessing methods, proposed weighted Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) by Mutual Information, and bootstrap approach, point forecasting and variance of the model uncertainties are estimated. In the second step, by employing ELM, bootstrap approach, and an ensemble structure, the noise variance is calculated. During the final step, to improve the results of the probabilistic forecasting, methods consisting of ELM, bootstrap, improved particle swarm optimization based on information feedback models and a new proposed prediction interval based objective function are used. Effectiveness of the proposed hybrid model is verified by employing real data of Australian wind farms for 1-h ahead and day ahead forecasting.

Research paper thumbnail of Coordination of risk-based generation investments in conventional and renewable capacities in oligopolistic electricity markets: A robust regulatory tool

Energy, 2021

This is a PDF file of an article that has undergone enhancements after acceptance, such as the ad... more This is a PDF file of an article that has undergone enhancements after acceptance, such as the addition of a cover page and metadata, and formatting for readability, but it is not yet the definitive version of record. This version will undergo additional copyediting, typesetting and review before it is published in its final form, but we are providing this version to give early visibility of the article. Please note that, during the production process, errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain.

Research paper thumbnail of Flexible Ramping Services in Power Systems: Background, Challenges, and Procurement Methods

Iranian Journal of Science and Technology, Transactions of Electrical Engineering, 2020

In recent years, the share of renewable energy sources (RES) in electricity generation portfolio ... more In recent years, the share of renewable energy sources (RES) in electricity generation portfolio has been growing, primarily supported by local and international energy policies to reduce the carbon footprint of the electricity sector. However, the large-scale integration of variable and uncertain RES has adverse effects on the power system operations. Therefore, the power system operators should apply advanced scheduling models and enhance the flexibility of the systems to compensate for the variability and uncertainty of RES. To deal with these challenges and covering the ramp scarcities and severe contingencies, not only more operational reserves are required but also the urgent actions is needed to develop the efficient markets, contracts, incentive mechanisms, effective scheduling models, and managerial approaches for encouraging suppliers to participate in flexibility procurement. This paper provides a background of the problem and a comprehensive review of the literature about flexible ramping markets and its procurement mechanisms.

Research paper thumbnail of Regulatory-intervented sustainable generation expansion planning in multi-electricity markets

Sustainable Cities and Society, 2019

Nowadays, according to sustainable development targets in modern societies, electricity markets a... more Nowadays, according to sustainable development targets in modern societies, electricity markets are gradually connecting together. In this way, in this paper, a multi-agent generation expansion planning in a joint multielectricity market environment is proposed. The GENCO (Generation Company) agents, competing in a deregulated structure, try to obtain the most profitable investment and operation plan regarding the incentives/ taxes that the regulatory sector legislates. The multi-area market assumption encourages the GENCOs to offer their energy blocks to adjacent electricity markets whenever the production capacity is higher than the local load. To confront the uncertainties such as wind speed, market price, and load demand, the Markov chain method is employed. The regulatory entity which monitors the market feedbacks such as reliability, pollution, and renewable penetration, announces the smart stimulating signals to the agents. The signals are sent back to the agents based on a MIMO (Multi Input Multi Output) PID (Proportional-Integral-Derivative) controller which has predefined social-welfare-oriented reference values. In order to verify the efficacy of the study, the results are compared with conventional single electricity market planning framework. The findings underline that by linking the markets together and applying the MIMO controller, the social welfare goals including costs, emissions, and reliability of supply could be improved. A typical average 25 and 50 percent reduction in carbon emission and tracking deviation respectively, verifies the effectiveness of the proposed model. 1.2. Literature survey In the framework plan of a sustainable society, environmental

Research paper thumbnail of Modelling multi-resource regulatory incentives in expansion planning problem

2015 IEEE Innovative Smart Grid Technologies - Asia (ISGT ASIA), 2015

In this paper, a new approach for distributed energy resources (DERs) expansion planning consider... more In this paper, a new approach for distributed energy resources (DERs) expansion planning considering multi-resource regulatory incentives is presented. The intermittent nature as well as different uncertainties which are associated with the DERs would cause investors to encounter risk in their investment decisions. Therefore, considering the supporting policies for increasing the penetration rate of DERs are known as an inevitable issue. The supporting policies for each of DER technologies have remarkable impacts on investment strategy of other rivals. Consequently, the system dynamics approach is employed in this paper for modelling of this multi-dimensional complex problem. Here, the supporting policies are contemplated in combined heat and power, wind turbine and demand response resources. By using this method, the impacts of regulatory policies on market dynamics are modelled, which affect on market dynamics and investment policies of resource owners.

Research paper thumbnail of Flexibility in future power systems with high renewable penetration: A review

Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2016

Renewables are going to make our planet a better place to live. These clean resources of energy c... more Renewables are going to make our planet a better place to live. These clean resources of energy can bring a handful of advantages to the future electricity industries. Nevertheless, the large percentage of renewables integration can cause some operational issues, in power systems, which are needed to be identified and coped with. This paper defines, classifies and discusses the latest flexibility treatments in power system based on a comprehensive literature study. The current work specifically considers the abilities, barriers, and inherent attributes of power systems’ potential to deal with high integration of Variable Generations (VGs) in future flexible power systems.

Research paper thumbnail of Distribution network upgrading base on expected utility by using insurance model

CIRED 2012 Workshop: Integration of Renewables into the Distribution Grid, 2012

It is customer who defines quality and organizations have to consider quality in customer view po... more It is customer who defines quality and organizations have to consider quality in customer view point. Nowadays, the concept of quality no longer equals to standards compatibility but it is defined as equal to the need of customer. In power industry, it is important to provide customer with reliability and quality, the same has been provided a lot in power supply industry tradition and several procedures have been performed to improvement the reliability. Such improvements dictated a lot of costs for customer. Now it seems that it is essential more than ever before that customer must receive right to choose the reliability rate by himself or herself. This paper plans to represents a model of reliability consistent with desired reliability in views of the distribution company as well as the customer. Different levels of reliability are suggested to provide the customer demanded desired. According to the insurance model, the customer will receive compensation if the guaranteed service is not available.

Research paper thumbnail of Multi-Microgrid Energy and Reactive Power Market Scheduling

Journal of Iranian Association of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Apr 10, 2016

Research paper thumbnail of Hydro Thermal Unit Commitment involving Demand Response resources: a MILP formulation

Electrical Engineering, Oct 5, 2022

Research paper thumbnail of A stochastic framework for the grid integration of wind power using flexible load approach

Energy Conversion and Management, Dec 1, 2014

Wind power integration has always been a key research area due to the green future power system t... more Wind power integration has always been a key research area due to the green future power system target. However, the intermittent nature of wind power may impose some technical and economic challenges to Independent System Operators (ISOs) and increase the need for additional flexibility. Motivated by this need, this paper focuses on the potential of Demand Response Programs (DRPs) as an option to contribute to the flexible operation of power systems. On this basis, in order to consider the uncertain nature of wind power and the reality of electricity market, a Stochastic Network Constrained Unit Commitment associated with DR (SNCUCDR) is presented to schedule both generation units and responsive loads in power systems with high penetration of wind power. Afterwards, the effects of both price-based and incentive-based DRPs are evaluated, as well as DR participation levels and electricity tariffs on providing a flexible load profile and facilitating grid integration of wind power. For this reason, novel quantitative indices for evaluating flexibility are defined to assess the success of DRPs in terms of wind integration. Sensitivity studies indicate that DR types and customer participation levels are the main factors to modify the system load profile to support wind power integration.

Research paper thumbnail of Two-stage approach for optimal dispatch of distributed energy resources in distribution networks considering virtual power plant concept

International Transactions on Electrical Energy Systems, Dec 3, 2012

With increasing levels of distributed generation (DG) penetration, especially variable output one... more With increasing levels of distributed generation (DG) penetration, especially variable output ones, new challenges have appeared in electric power systems. The outputs of these generators are variable and determined largely by nature of the power sources such as wind, wave, and sunlight. One solution to decrease problems caused by the variable output of these resources is to aggregate them into a virtual power plant (VPP). The VPP is an energy management system tasked to aggregate the capacity of some DGs, storage facilities, and dispatchable loads (DL) for the purpose of energy trading and/or providing system support services. The economically optimal control of distributed energy resources (DERs) included in the VPP is complicated by uncertainties, nonlinearities, and inter-temporal constraints. Therefore, a novel two-stage dispatch framework is presented here for the integration of the stochastic and the controllable DERs in the distribution network through the VPP concept. The first stage deals with the VPP optimal bidding model (VOBM). A probabilistic price-based unit commitment using point estimate method (PEM) is used in the VOBM to allow the VPP to decide on the unit commitment of its DERs and the optimal bids to the day-ahead market. The second stage deals with active distribution network management. The distribution system operator uses input from the VOBM to manage any local network constraints and to determine the characteristics of the entire local network at the grid supply points, while seeking to minimize the hourly operation cost. The proposed optimization algorithm is applied to an 18-bus system.

Research paper thumbnail of Transmission cost allocation based on the users’ benefits

International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems, Oct 1, 2014

Abstract In a competitive electricity market, transmission can be viewed as being in competition ... more Abstract In a competitive electricity market, transmission can be viewed as being in competition with generation. The transmission network indeed allows remote generators to compete with local ones. Thus, transmission benefits are not the same for all and this fact is important in transmission cost allocation method. There are various methods to allocate the transmission costs among the network users; but the most of the proposed methods are only based on the transmission flow (or physical usage). This paper, focusing on transmission cost allocation in an economic way that is based on “users’ benefits”. This method is according to transmission value and direct beneficiaries of transmission which are indirectly related to transmission physical usage. The beneficiaries of each transmission facility are determined for each market participant (consumer and/or producer) by calculating its revenues with and without the facility. The proposed algorithm is applied to a 3-bus and 24-bus IEEE test system and their results are compared to popular Bialek’s tracing method.

Research paper thumbnail of Investigating the effects of flexible load in the grid integration of wind power

2014 IEEE PES T&D Conference and Exposition, Apr 1, 2014

Since the concerns for energy conservation and environment are growing, renewable energy resource... more Since the concerns for energy conservation and environment are growing, renewable energy resources are rapidly increasing, which lead to additional variability and uncertainty for the power system operators. The uncertainty imposes considerable technical and economic challenges to ISOs. According to recent advances in smart grid technologies, Demand Response Programs (DRPs) are expected to facilitate the integration of intermittent renewable energy resources into the grid. In this paper, DRPs are considered as an option to reduce and manage renewable energy resources uncertainty. On this basis, this paper proposes a flexible load approach with the application to wind power grid integration. In this context, and in order to model the reality of the power market, a network constrained unit commitment problem associated with DRPs is presented to clear the market transactions. Simulation results show that utilizing DRPs can improve grid integration of wind power, while making significant economic and technical benefits for the system. Index Terms-wind power grid integration, demand response programs, flexible load, network constrained market clearing formulations.

Research paper thumbnail of Optimal selling price and energy procurement strategies for a retailer in an electricity market

Electric Power Systems Research, 2009

In an electricity market, the retailer sets up contracts with the wholesale side for purchasing e... more In an electricity market, the retailer sets up contracts with the wholesale side for purchasing electricity and with the customers for its selling. This paper proposes a mathematical method based on mixedinteger stochastic programming to determine the optimal sale price of electricity to customers and the electricity procurement policy of a retailer for a specified period. The retailer has multiple choices for electricity procurement, such as spot market, forward contracts, call options and self-production. Risk is considered and modeled by conditional value-at-risk methodology. Also, the competition between retailers is modeled using a market share function. A case study is illustrated to demonstrate the capability of the proposed method.

Research paper thumbnail of A Linear Model for Wind Farms Preventive Maintenance Scheduling Considering the Wind Speed Uncertainty and Electricity Market Conditions

2022 9th Iranian Conference on Renewable Energy & Distributed Generation (ICREDG)

Research paper thumbnail of Intelligent Microgrid Energy Management System Based on Deep Learning Approach

2021 11th Smart Grid Conference (SGC), 2021

Recently, microgrids (MG) have emerged as an essential solution for smart grids. The MG efficient... more Recently, microgrids (MG) have emerged as an essential solution for smart grids. The MG efficiently aggregates dispersed distributed energy resources (DERs) and balances renewable energy output variability. Uncertainties of power generation resources and consumption have disruptive influences on MG optimal decision making. This article proposes an intelligent energy management system (EMS) for grid-connected MGs. A forecasting approach is employed based on the convolutional LSTM (long-short time memory) to overcome uncertainties and improve the performance of the energy management system. MG comprises wind turbines (WTs), photovoltaic (PV) panels, battery energy storage systems (BSS), and electrical loads. Also, we utilized the mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) approach to offer an optimal solution by minimizing operating costs. Finally, the study compares its performance over similar state-of-the-art models by employing available real datasets from California, San Diego MGs. The experimental results show strong evidence of the effectiveness of the proposed model.

Research paper thumbnail of Generation Expansion Planning Considering Investment Dynamic of Market Participants Using Multi-agent System

2018 Smart Grid Conference (SGC), 2018

This paper presents a model for generation expansion planning (GEP) using multi-agent system. A r... more This paper presents a model for generation expansion planning (GEP) using multi-agent system. A robust framework for modeling communications between market participants is proposed. Multi-agent simulation provides a capability for simulating interaction and communication among the market participants. The developed approach considers counteraction and influences of decisions made by generation companies (GenCos) in the level of investments, so GenCos investments in dynamic environment will be modeled. Reinforcement learning has been applied in order to smart out the agents and modeling the intellectual decision makers. In addition, fuel cost and load growth uncertainties have been considered. In this model, GenCos decisions are converge to the Nash equilibrium point. The environment of investment for each GenCo is defined in a way that it observes Markov property. So, the problem can be considered as an episodic decision making over years of planning. Using this approach, in a case study three incentive capacity mechanisms have been appraised.

Research paper thumbnail of Generation Expansion Planning with Considering Energy Efficiency Investments

Research paper thumbnail of Distributed Energy Resource Expansion Planning Considering Monte Carlo Simulation and Incomplete Information Game Theory

Journal of Iranian Association of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, 2015

Research paper thumbnail of Transition in Iran's Electricity Market Considering the Policies on Elimination of Electricity Subsidies: System Dynamics Application

International Journal of Industrial Engineering & Production Research, 2014

Because of electricity subsidies, electricity price in Iran is much lower than its real value, an... more Because of electricity subsidies, electricity price in Iran is much lower than its real value, and the growth of electricity demand is much more than its rational rate, which in turn implies ever increasing investment in the electricity section by the Government. Therefore, the recent Government policies are based on elimination of electricity subsidies, followed by commissioning complete electricity market to attract investors in the power industry. In this paper, a model is developed for electricity demand prediction and evaluating Iran's current electricity market and complete electricity market to deal with optimistic and pessimistic electricity demand. Hence, a system dynamics framework is applied to model and generate scenarios because of its physical capability and information flows that allow understanding the behavior of nonlinear dynamics in uncertain conditions. To validate the model, it was compared with the available actual data within 21 years, since (1988-2008). A...

Research paper thumbnail of A new hybrid model for point and probabilistic forecasting of wind power

Energy, 2020

The accurate and reliable forecasting of wind power is of great importance for electrical systems... more The accurate and reliable forecasting of wind power is of great importance for electrical systems' control and operation. However, the intermittent nature of wind power generation implies a complicated forecasting framework. In this paper, a new hybrid model including three steps is proposed for point and probabilistic forecasting of wind power. Within the first step, by using data preprocessing methods, proposed weighted Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) by Mutual Information, and bootstrap approach, point forecasting and variance of the model uncertainties are estimated. In the second step, by employing ELM, bootstrap approach, and an ensemble structure, the noise variance is calculated. During the final step, to improve the results of the probabilistic forecasting, methods consisting of ELM, bootstrap, improved particle swarm optimization based on information feedback models and a new proposed prediction interval based objective function are used. Effectiveness of the proposed hybrid model is verified by employing real data of Australian wind farms for 1-h ahead and day ahead forecasting.

Research paper thumbnail of Coordination of risk-based generation investments in conventional and renewable capacities in oligopolistic electricity markets: A robust regulatory tool

Energy, 2021

This is a PDF file of an article that has undergone enhancements after acceptance, such as the ad... more This is a PDF file of an article that has undergone enhancements after acceptance, such as the addition of a cover page and metadata, and formatting for readability, but it is not yet the definitive version of record. This version will undergo additional copyediting, typesetting and review before it is published in its final form, but we are providing this version to give early visibility of the article. Please note that, during the production process, errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain.

Research paper thumbnail of Flexible Ramping Services in Power Systems: Background, Challenges, and Procurement Methods

Iranian Journal of Science and Technology, Transactions of Electrical Engineering, 2020

In recent years, the share of renewable energy sources (RES) in electricity generation portfolio ... more In recent years, the share of renewable energy sources (RES) in electricity generation portfolio has been growing, primarily supported by local and international energy policies to reduce the carbon footprint of the electricity sector. However, the large-scale integration of variable and uncertain RES has adverse effects on the power system operations. Therefore, the power system operators should apply advanced scheduling models and enhance the flexibility of the systems to compensate for the variability and uncertainty of RES. To deal with these challenges and covering the ramp scarcities and severe contingencies, not only more operational reserves are required but also the urgent actions is needed to develop the efficient markets, contracts, incentive mechanisms, effective scheduling models, and managerial approaches for encouraging suppliers to participate in flexibility procurement. This paper provides a background of the problem and a comprehensive review of the literature about flexible ramping markets and its procurement mechanisms.

Research paper thumbnail of Regulatory-intervented sustainable generation expansion planning in multi-electricity markets

Sustainable Cities and Society, 2019

Nowadays, according to sustainable development targets in modern societies, electricity markets a... more Nowadays, according to sustainable development targets in modern societies, electricity markets are gradually connecting together. In this way, in this paper, a multi-agent generation expansion planning in a joint multielectricity market environment is proposed. The GENCO (Generation Company) agents, competing in a deregulated structure, try to obtain the most profitable investment and operation plan regarding the incentives/ taxes that the regulatory sector legislates. The multi-area market assumption encourages the GENCOs to offer their energy blocks to adjacent electricity markets whenever the production capacity is higher than the local load. To confront the uncertainties such as wind speed, market price, and load demand, the Markov chain method is employed. The regulatory entity which monitors the market feedbacks such as reliability, pollution, and renewable penetration, announces the smart stimulating signals to the agents. The signals are sent back to the agents based on a MIMO (Multi Input Multi Output) PID (Proportional-Integral-Derivative) controller which has predefined social-welfare-oriented reference values. In order to verify the efficacy of the study, the results are compared with conventional single electricity market planning framework. The findings underline that by linking the markets together and applying the MIMO controller, the social welfare goals including costs, emissions, and reliability of supply could be improved. A typical average 25 and 50 percent reduction in carbon emission and tracking deviation respectively, verifies the effectiveness of the proposed model. 1.2. Literature survey In the framework plan of a sustainable society, environmental

Research paper thumbnail of Modelling multi-resource regulatory incentives in expansion planning problem

2015 IEEE Innovative Smart Grid Technologies - Asia (ISGT ASIA), 2015

In this paper, a new approach for distributed energy resources (DERs) expansion planning consider... more In this paper, a new approach for distributed energy resources (DERs) expansion planning considering multi-resource regulatory incentives is presented. The intermittent nature as well as different uncertainties which are associated with the DERs would cause investors to encounter risk in their investment decisions. Therefore, considering the supporting policies for increasing the penetration rate of DERs are known as an inevitable issue. The supporting policies for each of DER technologies have remarkable impacts on investment strategy of other rivals. Consequently, the system dynamics approach is employed in this paper for modelling of this multi-dimensional complex problem. Here, the supporting policies are contemplated in combined heat and power, wind turbine and demand response resources. By using this method, the impacts of regulatory policies on market dynamics are modelled, which affect on market dynamics and investment policies of resource owners.

Research paper thumbnail of Flexibility in future power systems with high renewable penetration: A review

Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2016

Renewables are going to make our planet a better place to live. These clean resources of energy c... more Renewables are going to make our planet a better place to live. These clean resources of energy can bring a handful of advantages to the future electricity industries. Nevertheless, the large percentage of renewables integration can cause some operational issues, in power systems, which are needed to be identified and coped with. This paper defines, classifies and discusses the latest flexibility treatments in power system based on a comprehensive literature study. The current work specifically considers the abilities, barriers, and inherent attributes of power systems’ potential to deal with high integration of Variable Generations (VGs) in future flexible power systems.

Research paper thumbnail of Distribution network upgrading base on expected utility by using insurance model

CIRED 2012 Workshop: Integration of Renewables into the Distribution Grid, 2012

It is customer who defines quality and organizations have to consider quality in customer view po... more It is customer who defines quality and organizations have to consider quality in customer view point. Nowadays, the concept of quality no longer equals to standards compatibility but it is defined as equal to the need of customer. In power industry, it is important to provide customer with reliability and quality, the same has been provided a lot in power supply industry tradition and several procedures have been performed to improvement the reliability. Such improvements dictated a lot of costs for customer. Now it seems that it is essential more than ever before that customer must receive right to choose the reliability rate by himself or herself. This paper plans to represents a model of reliability consistent with desired reliability in views of the distribution company as well as the customer. Different levels of reliability are suggested to provide the customer demanded desired. According to the insurance model, the customer will receive compensation if the guaranteed service is not available.