Mohammed Shuaibu - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Mohammed Shuaibu

Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, 2017

This study reexamines the sustainability of the current account in Nigeria over four decades usin... more This study reexamines the sustainability of the current account in Nigeria over four decades using time-series analysis on annual data from 1981 to 2013. We focus on two analytical distinctions to the inter-temporal budget constraint (IBC) hypothesis in relation to previous studies. First, we extend the standard bivariate approach to a multivariate framework that accounts for the roles of oil price variations and financial deepening, which have important implications for resource allocation. Second is the use of the Toda–Yamamoto modified Wald (MWALD)-based causality test that is also carried out to arbitrage between the results with and without a structural break. It employs both the conventional unit root test (augmented Dickey–Fuller [ADF] and Phillips–Perron [PP]) and the unit root test with a structural break (Perron, 2006; Zivot & Andrews, 1992). It also carries out the conventional residual-based cointegration test (Engle & Granger, 1987) and the residual-based cointegration ...

The Journal of Developing Areas, 2020

ABSTRACT:Agriculture is important for Sub-Saharan African development being a major source of pov... more ABSTRACT:Agriculture is important for Sub-Saharan African development being a major source of poverty reduction, job and wealth creation. However, limited access to credit due to weak financial systems has over the years remained a major constraint for the sector. Extant studies show mixed and inconclusive results, suggesting that the effect of credit market on agriculture is influenced by other intervening variables. Accordingly, this paper examines the extent to which credit market conditions affect agricultural productivity. The study adopts a model that draws inspiration from a standard agriculture household framework that integrates both consumption and production decisions of farm households. In terms of methodology, the paper departs from existing literature because it gives due consideration to technological heterogeneity across countries. The model is estimated using pooled ordinary least square and fixed effect panel data estimator that accounts for omitted variable bias. The study uses yearly panel data for the period 1990-2015 for West Africa (13), Southern Africa (11), Central Africa (6) and East Africa (5); resulting in 35 Sub-Saharan African countries. The findings reveal that credit market conditions in terms of low lending rates and credit to the private sector are important for agricultural development within the sub-regions considered and this result is consistent after controlling for other important agricultural inputs. The empirical analysis further shows that limited credit access particularly in the East and Central African sub-regions compared to West and Southern Africa inhibits productivity. More so, availability of critical factor inputs such as agriculture equipment, fertilizer, infrastructure and precipitation exert a positive and significant impact on agriculture output. The results unexpectedly reveal that the effect of labor on agriculture output is negative and this outcome is traced to the low productivity of agriculture workers. The results are robust using an alternative estimator (fixed effect) and measure of the dependent variable (cereal yield). The results have important policy implications. First, lowering lending rate is a viable option for improving credit to the sector in addition to enhancing agriculture sector programs. Second, intensification of efforts particularly towards rural infrastructure development and indeed the provision of agriculture support systems that promote all-year farming may be considered.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2022

PSN: Trade Policy (Topic), 2015

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between trade liberalisation a... more Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between trade liberalisation and intra-regional trade in some selected ECOWAS member countries, with particular focus on the role of applied and most favoured nation import tariffs. Design/methodology/approach – Data utilized were sourced from the World Bank's World Development and Governance Indicators, Mayer and Zignago (2006) distance index as well as the World Trade Organisation's World Integrated Trade System (WiTs). The sample period consists of 8 countries covering the years 1998 to 2011. Predicated on a gravity framework, system and difference generalised method of moments dynamic panel data estimators were relied upon. Findings – The empirical results showed that trade liberalisation has contributed to intra-regional trade in the West African sub-region. The potency of trade liberalisation was relatively more pronounced through the use of most favoured nation import tariff compared to applied import ...

This paper examines the residential demand for electricity in Nigeria as a function of real gross... more This paper examines the residential demand for electricity in Nigeria as a function of real gross domestic product per capita, price of electricity, and price of a substitute between 1970 to 2007. The bounds testing approach used to cointegration within an autoregressive distributed framework, suggested by Pesaran et al. (2001). In the long run, we found that income and the price of substitute emerges as the main determinant of electricity demand in Nigeria, while electricity price is insignificant. The relationship among the variables is stable and significant.

Journal of economic development, 2020

This paper examines the relationship between current account dynamics, relative output performanc... more This paper examines the relationship between current account dynamics, relative output performance and real exchange rate adjustment in Nigeria. A structural vector autoregression model that imposes the long-run neutrality assumption of Blanchard and Quah was used to analyze data for the period 1981Q1-2017Q4. Findings show that fiscal shocks drive the dynamics of relative output and current account in Nigeria but do not explain real exchange rate adjustment. However, exchange rate shocks influence the path of relative output while a deterioration of the current account balance in response to a monetary contraction is observed, suggesting the existence of the expenditure-switching effect. The worsening of the current account in response to a fiscal expansion validates the twin-deficit hypothesis in Nigeria. The impact of shocks was found to be more pronounced under the fixed relative to a flexible exchange rate regime. The results make a case for policies that could improve the trade...

Applied Econometrics and International Development, 2016

This paper investigates the determinants of human capital development in 33 African countries ove... more This paper investigates the determinants of human capital development in 33 African countries over the period 2000 to 2013. Results of panel unit root shows that all the variables are integrated of order one while the co integration tests showed that human capital development and its determinants have a stable long-run equilibrium relationship. Specifically, all the variables significantly influence human capital development in the long run whereas the contemporaneous models suggest that only institutions matter. Through the use of alternative estimators as well as estimation of subsamples, our robustness tests reinforce our findings. Therefore, African governments may sustain human capital development through sustained education and health expenditures. At the same time, short-term gains may be attained with enhanced institutional quality as well as infrastructural development.

Inclusive growth is an important channel through which African countries can foster higher region... more Inclusive growth is an important channel through which African countries can foster higher regional integration especially through trade. This is because many African countries are characterized by exclusive growth, small and fragmented domestic markets that are landlocked and often prone to external shocks. Using an augmented gravity specification, this paper conducts an empirical investigation of the relationship between regional integration and inclusive growth in Africa. The adapted model is estimated using ordinary least squares, Pseudo Poisson maximum likelihood estimator and the Blundell-Bond system generalized method of moment estimator. The empirical results reveal that inclusive growth plays a vital role towards intra-regional trade in Africa. The findings also support the need to strengthen regional and national institutions as well as provision of infrastructure. The paper makes a case for consistent and integrated national and regional policies especially with respect t...

Foreign Trade Review

Liberal trade regimes could help improve food productivity if environmental concerns such as adve... more Liberal trade regimes could help improve food productivity if environmental concerns such as adverse weather conditions that affect agriculture are addressed. This issue has not received adequate empirical scrutiny as linear models dominate extant literature. In this article, we check whether accounting for trade and climate change asymmetries is important in explaining food productivity in Nigeria. Using a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, the existence of asymmetry was established in the long run but not in the short run. The long-run estimates show that high rainfall variability increases food production, but the reverse is the case in the short run where the decomposed shocks exert a negative impact. An increase in the volume of trade boosts food production in the long run, whereas the contemporaneous estimates reveal that lower trade flows enhance food productivity. The findings have important implications for food policy formulation and implementation. JEL...

Agricultural Finance Review

PurposeThis study conducts an empirical analysis of the relationship between credit market condit... more PurposeThis study conducts an empirical analysis of the relationship between credit market conditions and agriculture output in Sub-Saharan Africa.Design/methodology/approachThis paper uses a two-stage least square instrumental variable and difference generalised method of moments dynamic panel model because potential reverse causation and endogeneity are addressed.FindingsThe findings show that better credit market conditions contribute to agriculture productivity. The results also show that better infrastructure and availability of agriculture inputs are associated with productivity improvements. The empirical results are robust when an alternative measure of agriculture productivity is used.Research limitations/implicationsAn important research agenda for future studies will be to consider alternative measures of credit market conditions and other intervening variables that influence the nexus. Besides, other methods that account for cross-sectional dependence could also be consi...

The Journal of Developing Areas

Istanbul Journal of Economics / İstanbul İktisat Dergisi

This paper examines the nexus between exchange rate fluctuations, oil price shocks, and growth in... more This paper examines the nexus between exchange rate fluctuations, oil price shocks, and growth in Nigeria, considering misspecification issues, endogeneity bias, and small sample size, which have not received adequate attention. Using a non-linear ARDL model, findings show that accounting for oil price and exchange rate asymmetries is important in explaining growth in the country for the period 1981-2016. The results also indicate that in the long-run, an exchange rate depreciation has a significant positive impact on growth. A negative oil price shock exerts a positive long-run effect on growth while higher oil prices have a negative impact. The oil price impact not only validates the Dutch disease hypothesis, but also reflects the government's limited fiscal buffers and savings over time. Contemporaneously, oil price shocks affect growth distinctly as high oil prices boost growth while negative shocks retrogress productivity. While the impact of currency depreciation on growth was found to be positive, an appreciation hurt growth in the short term. The findings reinforce the need for the government to urgently minimize the country's vulnerability to global crude oil markets as well as dependence on imports to stabilize the Nigerian Naira/ US dollar exchange rate.

The Indian Economic Journal

This paper estimates an inflation model for Nigeria by examining the existence of a significant l... more This paper estimates an inflation model for Nigeria by examining the existence of a significant long-run relationship between inflation and bank lending and to identify the main economic fundamentals that influence the relationship as well as other variables that determined inflation between 1980 and 2008. We make use of the bounds testing approach to cointegration within an autoregressive distributed framework, suggested by Pesaran et al., (2001). In the long run, we find that bank lending and real income emerge as the main determinants of inflation in Nigeria, while fiscal deficits and exchange rates are insignificant. The relationships among the variables are stable and significant.

Oeconomia Copernicana, 2016

Africa is regarded as the least developed continent in terms of overall development and specifica... more Africa is regarded as the least developed continent in terms of overall development and specifically in terms of human capital development (HCD) efforts. Research on the determinants of HCD in Africa is scanty, as the literature is dominated by country-specific studies as well as group of country studies that primarily focus on the effect of human capital on growth and other economic development parameters. Therefore, this paper investigates the determinants of human capital development in 33 African countries over a 14-year period from 2000 to 2013. The empirical analysis is predicated on Sen’s capability approach that was modified following Binder and Georgiadis (2011) in order to explicitly account for the role of health, infrastructure and institutions as potential drivers of HCD. This is a departure from previous studies that focused primarily on the role of education. In addition to preliminary tests such as line plot, descriptive statistics and correlation analysis carried ou...

International Economic Journal, 2016

The paper examined the effect o f trade liberalisation on some key identified poverty indicators ... more The paper examined the effect o f trade liberalisation on some key identified poverty indicators in Nigeria within the period of 1980 and 2009 with a view to determining whether the trade policy as practised in Nigeria over the study period has really significantly impacted on the state of poverty. The methodology applied was Generalised Method of Moments. The findings show that trade liberalisation, in Nigeria, d id not contribute significantly to poverty reduction. It is therefore pertinent that a firmer and realistic approach aimed at regularly assessing the progress made in implement ing trade liberalisation programmes through effective supervision and monitoring of p rogrammes directed at rein ing in on poverty be pursued.

Economics Bulletin, Dec 23, 2013

This paper examined the nexus between energy consumption, CO2 emissions and economic growth in Ni... more This paper examined the nexus between energy consumption, CO2 emissions and economic growth in Nigeria, for the period 1970-2011 within a dynamic multivariate framework. Specifically, we rely on the Zivot-Andrews unit root test, Gregory-Hansen cointegration test and subsequently estimate our model using the Granger non-causality test (proposed by Toda and Yomamoto). Our findings showed that even with the observed break points in 1991 and 1992, energy consumption, CO2 emissions and economic growth were cointegrated. However, perhaps due to the structural shifts, no causal relationship running from CO2 emission and energy consumption to economic growth was observed. We also found that the effect of CO2 emissions and energy consumption on growth in Nigeria is time-varying between, before and after the structural breakpoint. An important policy implication resulting from our analysis is the need for government to re-focus its energy policies in pursuit of renewable energy sources that are environmentally friendly and which will have minimal effects on long-term growth in terms of CO2 emissions.

International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Feb 27, 2013

Over the years, substantial theoretical and empirical studies have been conducted on the financia... more Over the years, substantial theoretical and empirical studies have been conducted on the financial development-economic growth nexus. While a strand of the literature has found a positive linkage between this critical nexus, the other suggests otherwise. This study contributes to the debate by examining the finance-growth nexus for Nigeria using the bounds testing approach to cointegration within an ARDL framework proposed by Pesaran et al. (2001) and the augmented Granger causality test developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995).Empirical evidence reveals that financial development significantly affects economic growth in the short and long run. The major implication for our study therefore is that financial regulatory institutions need to be strengthened to better maximize the gains from financial development especially its role towards real sector development and job creation for the growing population.