Monica de Bolle - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
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Papers by Monica de Bolle
Casa das Garças), an independent think tank based in Rio de Janeiro formed by former Brazilian po... more Casa das Garças), an independent think tank based in Rio de Janeiro formed by former Brazilian policy makers, including Edmar Bacha, Arminio Fraga and former Finance Minister Pedro Malan. Monica is also a professor of macroeconomics at the Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio). She was the head of International Macroeconomic Research at Banco BBM between 2005 and 2006. Between 2000 and 2005 she was an economist at the International Monetary Fund in Washington, DC, with active participation in many emerging market financial crises, including the sovereign debt restructurings of Uruguay and Argentina. Ms. de Bolle holds a Ph.D. from the London School of Economics (2001) and has co-authored a book on international financial regulation with Dionisio Dias Carneiro (2010) and on Brazilian policy dilemmas after the financial crises (2011) and the future of Brazilian industry (forthcoming) with Edmar Bacha. She writes weekly for O Globo and monthly for O Estado de São Paulo, two major Brazilian newspapers. Monica is also a regular contributor to the Economist Intelligence Unit's country reports on Brazil.
Policy briefs, 2015
(currently on leave), as well as managing partner of Galanto | MBB Consultants, a macroeconomics ... more (currently on leave), as well as managing partner of Galanto | MBB Consultants, a macroeconomics advisory fi rm.
Esta carta discute a situação epidêmica da Covid-19 no Brasil frente aoaparecimento de uma nova l... more Esta carta discute a situação epidêmica da Covid-19 no Brasil frente aoaparecimento de uma nova linhagem, chamada P1, mais transmissível e compossível re-infecção associada. Tendo em vista o colapso do atendimentohospitalar em Manaus em janeiro de 2021 e os resultados de três preprintsrecentes, todos encontrando maior transmissibilidade da variante P.1, propomos algumas ações urgentes: o estabelecimento de uma vigilância genômica baseada em diagnóstico em múltiplos passos, iniciando com os testes do tipo RT-PCR até o sequenciamento; um esforço imediato na identificação de re-infecções associadas à nova variante, atualizando os seus protocolos de definição; e estudos sobre a eficácia das vacinas atualmente disponíveis no Brasil na vigência da nova variante. Propomos, ademais, o aprimoramento do sistema de vigilância em saúde brasileiro, que seja articulado com a vigilância genômica, de forma a responder mais oportunamente a emergências futuras. Chamamos os agentes públicos implicados...
On July 1, 2019, exactly six months after Bolsonaro’s inauguration, the Brazil Institute held a d... more On July 1, 2019, exactly six months after Bolsonaro’s inauguration, the Brazil Institute held a discussion with Maurício Moura, Andrea Murta, Monica de Bolle, and Thiago de Aragão on the Brazilian government’s performance in the first semester of 2019. The event also served to celebrate the release of A eleição disruptiva: Por que Bolsonaro venceu (The Disruptive Election: Why Bolsonaro Won), in which Maurício Moura and Juliano Corbellini examine how a relatively unimportant, far-right congressman came to be president of Brazil, and what that means for the government and its agenda.
Policy briefs, 2019
The fires in Brazil's Amazon rainforest in the summer of 2019 represent a government policy f... more The fires in Brazil's Amazon rainforest in the summer of 2019 represent a government policy failure over many years, especially recently, as Brazilian public agencies that are supposed to curb man-made fires have been deliberately weakened. In keeping with his far-right nationalist campaign promises, President Jair Bolsonaro's government has intentionally backed away from efforts to combat climate change and preserve the environment, which has emboldened farmers, loggers, and other players to engage in predatory activities in the rainforest. De Bolle calculates that if the current rate of deforestation is maintained over the next few years, the Amazon would be dangerously close to the estimated "tipping point" as soon as 2021, beyond which the rainforest can no longer generate enough rain to sustain itself. The tragic fires have demonstrated that protecting the Amazon rainforest is a global cause. The international attention provides an opportunity for the governme...
Policy briefs, 2015
Public lending by the Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES) may have done more harm than good in Bra... more Public lending by the Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES) may have done more harm than good in Brazil, adversely affecting real interest rates and productivity growth. Specifically, BNDES's large amounts of subsidized lending are responsible for substantial credit market segmentation, choking off monetary policy transmission. As a result, to maintain price stability the Central Bank of Brazil is forced to raise interest rates more than it might do otherwise in the absence of BNDES lending. Restoring Brazil's capacity to grow in the medium term requires a thorough rethinking of the role of BNDES. In particular, the bank's lending rates should be aligned with market prices, term and risk premia, while taking into account that, with an adequate transparency framework, public development banks can increase private sector participation instead of crowding it out.
A crescente desordem macroeconomica e a dificuldade de dar andamento a agenda de infraestrutura a... more A crescente desordem macroeconomica e a dificuldade de dar andamento a agenda de infraestrutura assombram o pais, ameacando-nos com o estigma do retrocesso. Ate quando?
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2019
Since the mid-2000s, the platforms of major political parties in both advanced and emerging-marke... more Since the mid-2000s, the platforms of major political parties in both advanced and emerging-market economies have increasingly emphasized policies that stress national sovereignty, reject multilateralism, and seek to advance national interests through measures that come at the expense of foreign interests. This paper documents this shift by evaluating the policy platforms of the largest political parties (about 55 in total) in the Group of Twenty (G-20) countries with regard to trade policy, foreign direct investment (FDI), immigration, and multilateral organizations. Preference shifts with respect to industrial policy, competition policy, and macroeconomic populism are also examined. In advanced economies, the biggest shifts were toward restrictions on immigration and trade and toward macroeconomic populism. In emerging-market economies, the largest preference shifts were toward industrial policies favoring specific sectors, macroeconomic populism, and industrial concentration. Trade protectionism and skepticism toward multilateral organizations and agreements have increased in both advanced and emerging-market economies. As of 2018, economic policy preferences in emerging-market economies were more nationalist and less liberal than in advanced countries, but the gap has narrowed. Right-wing parties tend to be more nationalist than left-wing parties in the areas of immigration restrictions, FDI restrictions, and antimultilateralism, but there is no significant difference with respect to trade protectionism.
Indicadores Economicos Fee, Dec 18, 2013
Casa das Garças), an independent think tank based in Rio de Janeiro formed by former Brazilian po... more Casa das Garças), an independent think tank based in Rio de Janeiro formed by former Brazilian policy makers, including Edmar Bacha, Arminio Fraga and former Finance Minister Pedro Malan. Monica is also a professor of macroeconomics at the Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio). She was the head of International Macroeconomic Research at Banco BBM between 2005 and 2006. Between 2000 and 2005 she was an economist at the International Monetary Fund in Washington, DC, with active participation in many emerging market financial crises, including the sovereign debt restructurings of Uruguay and Argentina. Ms. de Bolle holds a Ph.D. from the London School of Economics (2001) and has co-authored a book on international financial regulation with Dionisio Dias Carneiro (2010) and on Brazilian policy dilemmas after the financial crises (2011) and the future of Brazilian industry (forthcoming) with Edmar Bacha. She writes weekly for O Globo and monthly for O Estado de São Paulo, two major Brazilian newspapers. Monica is also a regular contributor to the Economist Intelligence Unit's country reports on Brazil.
Policy briefs, 2015
(currently on leave), as well as managing partner of Galanto | MBB Consultants, a macroeconomics ... more (currently on leave), as well as managing partner of Galanto | MBB Consultants, a macroeconomics advisory fi rm.
Esta carta discute a situação epidêmica da Covid-19 no Brasil frente aoaparecimento de uma nova l... more Esta carta discute a situação epidêmica da Covid-19 no Brasil frente aoaparecimento de uma nova linhagem, chamada P1, mais transmissível e compossível re-infecção associada. Tendo em vista o colapso do atendimentohospitalar em Manaus em janeiro de 2021 e os resultados de três preprintsrecentes, todos encontrando maior transmissibilidade da variante P.1, propomos algumas ações urgentes: o estabelecimento de uma vigilância genômica baseada em diagnóstico em múltiplos passos, iniciando com os testes do tipo RT-PCR até o sequenciamento; um esforço imediato na identificação de re-infecções associadas à nova variante, atualizando os seus protocolos de definição; e estudos sobre a eficácia das vacinas atualmente disponíveis no Brasil na vigência da nova variante. Propomos, ademais, o aprimoramento do sistema de vigilância em saúde brasileiro, que seja articulado com a vigilância genômica, de forma a responder mais oportunamente a emergências futuras. Chamamos os agentes públicos implicados...
On July 1, 2019, exactly six months after Bolsonaro’s inauguration, the Brazil Institute held a d... more On July 1, 2019, exactly six months after Bolsonaro’s inauguration, the Brazil Institute held a discussion with Maurício Moura, Andrea Murta, Monica de Bolle, and Thiago de Aragão on the Brazilian government’s performance in the first semester of 2019. The event also served to celebrate the release of A eleição disruptiva: Por que Bolsonaro venceu (The Disruptive Election: Why Bolsonaro Won), in which Maurício Moura and Juliano Corbellini examine how a relatively unimportant, far-right congressman came to be president of Brazil, and what that means for the government and its agenda.
Policy briefs, 2019
The fires in Brazil's Amazon rainforest in the summer of 2019 represent a government policy f... more The fires in Brazil's Amazon rainforest in the summer of 2019 represent a government policy failure over many years, especially recently, as Brazilian public agencies that are supposed to curb man-made fires have been deliberately weakened. In keeping with his far-right nationalist campaign promises, President Jair Bolsonaro's government has intentionally backed away from efforts to combat climate change and preserve the environment, which has emboldened farmers, loggers, and other players to engage in predatory activities in the rainforest. De Bolle calculates that if the current rate of deforestation is maintained over the next few years, the Amazon would be dangerously close to the estimated "tipping point" as soon as 2021, beyond which the rainforest can no longer generate enough rain to sustain itself. The tragic fires have demonstrated that protecting the Amazon rainforest is a global cause. The international attention provides an opportunity for the governme...
Policy briefs, 2015
Public lending by the Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES) may have done more harm than good in Bra... more Public lending by the Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES) may have done more harm than good in Brazil, adversely affecting real interest rates and productivity growth. Specifically, BNDES's large amounts of subsidized lending are responsible for substantial credit market segmentation, choking off monetary policy transmission. As a result, to maintain price stability the Central Bank of Brazil is forced to raise interest rates more than it might do otherwise in the absence of BNDES lending. Restoring Brazil's capacity to grow in the medium term requires a thorough rethinking of the role of BNDES. In particular, the bank's lending rates should be aligned with market prices, term and risk premia, while taking into account that, with an adequate transparency framework, public development banks can increase private sector participation instead of crowding it out.
A crescente desordem macroeconomica e a dificuldade de dar andamento a agenda de infraestrutura a... more A crescente desordem macroeconomica e a dificuldade de dar andamento a agenda de infraestrutura assombram o pais, ameacando-nos com o estigma do retrocesso. Ate quando?
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2019
Since the mid-2000s, the platforms of major political parties in both advanced and emerging-marke... more Since the mid-2000s, the platforms of major political parties in both advanced and emerging-market economies have increasingly emphasized policies that stress national sovereignty, reject multilateralism, and seek to advance national interests through measures that come at the expense of foreign interests. This paper documents this shift by evaluating the policy platforms of the largest political parties (about 55 in total) in the Group of Twenty (G-20) countries with regard to trade policy, foreign direct investment (FDI), immigration, and multilateral organizations. Preference shifts with respect to industrial policy, competition policy, and macroeconomic populism are also examined. In advanced economies, the biggest shifts were toward restrictions on immigration and trade and toward macroeconomic populism. In emerging-market economies, the largest preference shifts were toward industrial policies favoring specific sectors, macroeconomic populism, and industrial concentration. Trade protectionism and skepticism toward multilateral organizations and agreements have increased in both advanced and emerging-market economies. As of 2018, economic policy preferences in emerging-market economies were more nationalist and less liberal than in advanced countries, but the gap has narrowed. Right-wing parties tend to be more nationalist than left-wing parties in the areas of immigration restrictions, FDI restrictions, and antimultilateralism, but there is no significant difference with respect to trade protectionism.
Indicadores Economicos Fee, Dec 18, 2013