Musiliu Oseni - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by Musiliu Oseni
Self-generation (via small backup generators) is a common strategy often adopted by households to... more Self-generation (via small backup generators) is a common strategy often adopted by households to mitigate the impact of poor public electricity provision on their welfare. What is less well known, however, is whether (and how) ownership of a backup generator influences households’ behavior to pay for service reliability. This paper examines whether (and how) the ownership of a backup generator affects the households’ decisions to pay for improved grid service reliability in two south-western states of Nigeria. I employ event study methods, matching each household owning a backup to a control group of one or more non-backup households with similar characteristics. The results reveal that ownership of a backup generator significantly increases (rather than decreases) willingness to pay for reliability. This is despite the fact that owning a backup generator reduces the welfare impacts of unreliability, and despite facing fewer interruptions from the national grid. I also explore the ...
The Energy Journal
Many households in developing countries often engage in self-generation to mitigate the impacts o... more Many households in developing countries often engage in self-generation to mitigate the impacts of poor public electricity provision. What is less well known, however, is whether (and how) self-generation influences households' willingness to pay (WTP) for service reliability. Using data collected from a sample of Nigerian households, the results reveal that engagement in self-generation is positively correlated with WTP for reliability. This is despite the fact that self-generation reduces the negative welfare impact of unreliability. Further analyses, however, show that backup households' decisions to pay a higher amount than non-backup households are influenced by the costs of self-generation: an increase of N1 (US$0.006) in self-generation's fuel cost per-hour is associated with WTP about N5.22 (US$0.032) more in the monthly bill. However, households' WTP US$0.15-0.16/kWh of improved reliability is smaller than the marginal costs of reliability from selfgeneration-US$0.27-0.41/kWh. We conclude by discussing the policy implications of our findings.
Energy Policy, 2016
This paper focuses on how to promote electricity regional cooperation. We begin by discussing the... more This paper focuses on how to promote electricity regional cooperation. We begin by discussing the theory of international trade cooperation in electricity, with a view to discussing what preconditions might be important in facilitating wide area trading across national borders. We then develop lessons based on the comparison of four case studies. These include three regional developing country power pools-the Southern African Power pool (SAPP), West African Power pool (WAPP) and the Central American Power Market (MER). We contrast these with Northern Europe's Nord Pool. These cases highlight both the potential and difficulty of having cross-jurisdictional power pools. In the light of the theory and evidence we present, we draw key lessons for other regions-such as the South Asia Region (SAR)-in the areas of: preconditions for trading; necessary institutional arrangements; practicalities of timetabling; reasons to be hopeful about future prospects. JEL Classifications: F13, L94.
This study focuses on how energy and communications have evolved over the last 50 years and what ... more This study focuses on how energy and communications have evolved over the last 50 years and what we can learn from history in order to examine the prospects for smart energy pricing by 2050. We begin by discussing the nature of energy and telecoms products and why price discrimination should be expected. We then review various business and pricing strategies that have evolved in the two industries. We find that business models for both the telecoms and energy sectors have changed from the traditional services business model (i.e., offering of calls and messages for telecoms, and utility supply services for energy) to more dynamic, integrated and complex business models. These new business models include the managed services provider model, the bundled services model, and the prosumer business model, among others. Similarly, several changes in pricing structure have evolved. There has been a reduction in the number of distanced-based and increasing time-based price differentiation in fixed line telecoms and the abolition of residential floor area-based differentiation in residential electricity pricing. We conclude with a discussion on how the rollout of the next generation of electricity meters (smart and advanced meters) may further shape electricity pricing in the future.
Energy Policy, 2016
Despite the global concerns surrounding the threats of climate change to both human health and su... more Despite the global concerns surrounding the threats of climate change to both human health and sustainable environments, gasoline-or diesel-powered generators with non-negligible emissions have become a popular choice among Nigerian households due to the poor publicly provided electricity. This study examines the extent to which an improvement in publicly supplied electricity may reduce backup generation and, by implication, reduce emissions from Nigerian homes. The results from a random-effects probit analysis reveal that, although improved electricity service quality would significantly reduce self-generation, self-generation would continue in the country, especially among rich and educated households. The study concludes by highlighting the policy implications of the findings.
Public electricity provision in Africa has been marred by under investment and frequent power out... more Public electricity provision in Africa has been marred by under investment and frequent power outages. One of the strategies often adopted by firms to cope with this poor public supply is investment in backup generation. This strategy is not without cost however. Extant literatures on outage cost estimation have shown that firms possessing certain characteristics have a higher tendency to invest in backup generation. What is less known, however, is whether those firms suffer lesser or higher unmitigated outage losses (costs). Using cross-sectional data from 6854 firms currently operating in 12 African countries, this study investigated the extent to which firms' characteristics might create incentives for auto-generation and whether these incentives lead to lesser unmitigated outage costs. We used three different methods including marginal cost, incomplete backup and subjective evaluation techniques. The results reveal that large firms, firms engaging in exports, and those using the Internet for their operation still suffer higher unmitigated outage costs despite having a higher propensity of investing in backup generation. The results further reveal that unmitigated costs still account for the larger proportion of the total outage costs despite high prevalence of backup ownership among the firms. This reflects the inefficiency in backup generation due to small backup capacity held by firms. Our estimates also indicate that ignoring firms' characteristics such as size and the nature of operation (e.g. export promotion, internet usage, etc.) may result in underestimation of outage losses. The analysis further suggests that firms can still benefit significantly even when the current subsidised tariffs are replaced by cost-reflective rates that ensure stable electricity supply. The net outage cost (having adjusted for a cost-reflective tariff) incurred by firms are large enough to expand their scope of operation and hire more workers, suggesting the macroeconomic effect could be significant. www.eprg.group.cam.ac.uk
Energy Policy, 2015
Despite the rising popularity in the adoption and usage of prepayment meters, little is still kno... more Despite the rising popularity in the adoption and usage of prepayment meters, little is still known about the drivers of its adoption. We examine the willingness to adopt prepayment metering (PPM) for a sample of Nigerian households that were not prepayment users. Double-hurdle models were estimated to account for households’ decisions concerning billing system switching behaviour and households’ willingness to pay (WTP). The estimated results revealed that decisions to adopt a prepayment meter are significantly affected by current electricity spending, current billing method and the split incentive problem. Whereas current electricity spending significantly increased the tendency to adopt PPM, the split incentive problem reduced the probability of adoption. Although unmetered consumers were more likely to express a willingness to adopt a PPM system than post-paid customers, they did not intend to pay a significantly higher amount to obtain the prepayment service. Income did not play a significant role in decision-making concerning PPM adoption and the corresponding WTP amount. These results cast doubt on the validity of the widely held belief that low income may be responsible for PPM adoption, reflecting the widespread usage of PPM by low-income households.
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2012
ABSTRACT
Energy Economics, 2015
This study examines the outage loss differential between firms that engage in backup generation a... more This study examines the outage loss differential between firms that engage in backup generation and those that do not. Unmitigated outage losses were estimated to be US$2.01-US$23.92 per kWh for firms engaging in self-generation, and range from US$1.54-US$32.46 per kWh for firms without self-generation. We also find that firms engaging in self-generation would have suffered additional 1-183% outage losses had they not invested in self-generation. On the other hand, firms without self-generation would have reduced their outage losses by around 6-46% if they had engaged in selfgeneration. Further analyses however reveal that, although engagement in selfgeneration reduced outage losses, a firm engaging in self-generation may still suffer a greater unmitigated outage loss relative to a firm without a backup generator. The relative outage losses depend on the relative vulnerability of the operations of the two sets of firms to power interruption, and the relative generating capacity of a selfgenerating firm to its own required electricity loads. Policy reforms that allow firms, whose operations are highly vulnerable to outages, to make a binding contract with utilities in order to get preferential supply are recommended.
We present results of the 2013 Energy Policy Research Group (EPRG) public opinion survey on smart... more We present results of the 2013 Energy Policy Research Group (EPRG) public opinion survey on smart metering and consumption behaviour. Our survey examines the energy consumption awareness and attitudes of the British public, the effect of peers on consumption behaviour, the potential for consumer engagement and consumer acceptance of various energy saving measures. wherever possible, comparisons were made to EPRG public opinion surveys from 2006, 2008 and 2010. The share of individuals that would not want their consumption data recorded at all has gone down from 2010 levels from 30% to 22% although numerous concerns remain. Smart devices do lead to behavioural response but the challenge is the sustainability of this behaviour change over time. The share of electricity monitor householders that read the monitor at least once in a week is 26%, compared to less than 5% of non-monitor households that reported checking their meters at least once a week. However, the reading habit declines over time. Peer influence is not found to have strong impacts on behaviour change. Affordable and user friendly applications on smart phones that inform people of their consumption are seen as promising tools to raise awareness and induce behaviour chan9e. There is scope for shifting load off-peak through smart technologies that minimise impact on availability and functionality, and guarantee consumer privacy.
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2012
ABSTRACT
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2011
Rapid economic growth and sustainable development depends largely on the level of infrastructural... more Rapid economic growth and sustainable development depends largely on the level of infrastructural development of a nation. This reasonably suggests that a good knowledge of the performance of infrastructural services in an economy is vital and an essential requirement for policy directed at attaining sound and vibrant economic development. Drawing from above, the study analyses the overall performance of the
Policy Research Working Papers, 2014
The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encoura... more The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.
Self-generation (via small backup generators) is a common strategy often adopted by households to... more Self-generation (via small backup generators) is a common strategy often adopted by households to mitigate the impact of poor public electricity provision on their welfare. What is less well known, however, is whether (and how) ownership of a backup generator influences households’ behavior to pay for service reliability. This paper examines whether (and how) the ownership of a backup generator affects the households’ decisions to pay for improved grid service reliability in two south-western states of Nigeria. I employ event study methods, matching each household owning a backup to a control group of one or more non-backup households with similar characteristics. The results reveal that ownership of a backup generator significantly increases (rather than decreases) willingness to pay for reliability. This is despite the fact that owning a backup generator reduces the welfare impacts of unreliability, and despite facing fewer interruptions from the national grid. I also explore the ...
The Energy Journal
Many households in developing countries often engage in self-generation to mitigate the impacts o... more Many households in developing countries often engage in self-generation to mitigate the impacts of poor public electricity provision. What is less well known, however, is whether (and how) self-generation influences households' willingness to pay (WTP) for service reliability. Using data collected from a sample of Nigerian households, the results reveal that engagement in self-generation is positively correlated with WTP for reliability. This is despite the fact that self-generation reduces the negative welfare impact of unreliability. Further analyses, however, show that backup households' decisions to pay a higher amount than non-backup households are influenced by the costs of self-generation: an increase of N1 (US$0.006) in self-generation's fuel cost per-hour is associated with WTP about N5.22 (US$0.032) more in the monthly bill. However, households' WTP US$0.15-0.16/kWh of improved reliability is smaller than the marginal costs of reliability from selfgeneration-US$0.27-0.41/kWh. We conclude by discussing the policy implications of our findings.
Energy Policy, 2016
This paper focuses on how to promote electricity regional cooperation. We begin by discussing the... more This paper focuses on how to promote electricity regional cooperation. We begin by discussing the theory of international trade cooperation in electricity, with a view to discussing what preconditions might be important in facilitating wide area trading across national borders. We then develop lessons based on the comparison of four case studies. These include three regional developing country power pools-the Southern African Power pool (SAPP), West African Power pool (WAPP) and the Central American Power Market (MER). We contrast these with Northern Europe's Nord Pool. These cases highlight both the potential and difficulty of having cross-jurisdictional power pools. In the light of the theory and evidence we present, we draw key lessons for other regions-such as the South Asia Region (SAR)-in the areas of: preconditions for trading; necessary institutional arrangements; practicalities of timetabling; reasons to be hopeful about future prospects. JEL Classifications: F13, L94.
This study focuses on how energy and communications have evolved over the last 50 years and what ... more This study focuses on how energy and communications have evolved over the last 50 years and what we can learn from history in order to examine the prospects for smart energy pricing by 2050. We begin by discussing the nature of energy and telecoms products and why price discrimination should be expected. We then review various business and pricing strategies that have evolved in the two industries. We find that business models for both the telecoms and energy sectors have changed from the traditional services business model (i.e., offering of calls and messages for telecoms, and utility supply services for energy) to more dynamic, integrated and complex business models. These new business models include the managed services provider model, the bundled services model, and the prosumer business model, among others. Similarly, several changes in pricing structure have evolved. There has been a reduction in the number of distanced-based and increasing time-based price differentiation in fixed line telecoms and the abolition of residential floor area-based differentiation in residential electricity pricing. We conclude with a discussion on how the rollout of the next generation of electricity meters (smart and advanced meters) may further shape electricity pricing in the future.
Energy Policy, 2016
Despite the global concerns surrounding the threats of climate change to both human health and su... more Despite the global concerns surrounding the threats of climate change to both human health and sustainable environments, gasoline-or diesel-powered generators with non-negligible emissions have become a popular choice among Nigerian households due to the poor publicly provided electricity. This study examines the extent to which an improvement in publicly supplied electricity may reduce backup generation and, by implication, reduce emissions from Nigerian homes. The results from a random-effects probit analysis reveal that, although improved electricity service quality would significantly reduce self-generation, self-generation would continue in the country, especially among rich and educated households. The study concludes by highlighting the policy implications of the findings.
Public electricity provision in Africa has been marred by under investment and frequent power out... more Public electricity provision in Africa has been marred by under investment and frequent power outages. One of the strategies often adopted by firms to cope with this poor public supply is investment in backup generation. This strategy is not without cost however. Extant literatures on outage cost estimation have shown that firms possessing certain characteristics have a higher tendency to invest in backup generation. What is less known, however, is whether those firms suffer lesser or higher unmitigated outage losses (costs). Using cross-sectional data from 6854 firms currently operating in 12 African countries, this study investigated the extent to which firms' characteristics might create incentives for auto-generation and whether these incentives lead to lesser unmitigated outage costs. We used three different methods including marginal cost, incomplete backup and subjective evaluation techniques. The results reveal that large firms, firms engaging in exports, and those using the Internet for their operation still suffer higher unmitigated outage costs despite having a higher propensity of investing in backup generation. The results further reveal that unmitigated costs still account for the larger proportion of the total outage costs despite high prevalence of backup ownership among the firms. This reflects the inefficiency in backup generation due to small backup capacity held by firms. Our estimates also indicate that ignoring firms' characteristics such as size and the nature of operation (e.g. export promotion, internet usage, etc.) may result in underestimation of outage losses. The analysis further suggests that firms can still benefit significantly even when the current subsidised tariffs are replaced by cost-reflective rates that ensure stable electricity supply. The net outage cost (having adjusted for a cost-reflective tariff) incurred by firms are large enough to expand their scope of operation and hire more workers, suggesting the macroeconomic effect could be significant. www.eprg.group.cam.ac.uk
Energy Policy, 2015
Despite the rising popularity in the adoption and usage of prepayment meters, little is still kno... more Despite the rising popularity in the adoption and usage of prepayment meters, little is still known about the drivers of its adoption. We examine the willingness to adopt prepayment metering (PPM) for a sample of Nigerian households that were not prepayment users. Double-hurdle models were estimated to account for households’ decisions concerning billing system switching behaviour and households’ willingness to pay (WTP). The estimated results revealed that decisions to adopt a prepayment meter are significantly affected by current electricity spending, current billing method and the split incentive problem. Whereas current electricity spending significantly increased the tendency to adopt PPM, the split incentive problem reduced the probability of adoption. Although unmetered consumers were more likely to express a willingness to adopt a PPM system than post-paid customers, they did not intend to pay a significantly higher amount to obtain the prepayment service. Income did not play a significant role in decision-making concerning PPM adoption and the corresponding WTP amount. These results cast doubt on the validity of the widely held belief that low income may be responsible for PPM adoption, reflecting the widespread usage of PPM by low-income households.
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2012
ABSTRACT
Energy Economics, 2015
This study examines the outage loss differential between firms that engage in backup generation a... more This study examines the outage loss differential between firms that engage in backup generation and those that do not. Unmitigated outage losses were estimated to be US$2.01-US$23.92 per kWh for firms engaging in self-generation, and range from US$1.54-US$32.46 per kWh for firms without self-generation. We also find that firms engaging in self-generation would have suffered additional 1-183% outage losses had they not invested in self-generation. On the other hand, firms without self-generation would have reduced their outage losses by around 6-46% if they had engaged in selfgeneration. Further analyses however reveal that, although engagement in selfgeneration reduced outage losses, a firm engaging in self-generation may still suffer a greater unmitigated outage loss relative to a firm without a backup generator. The relative outage losses depend on the relative vulnerability of the operations of the two sets of firms to power interruption, and the relative generating capacity of a selfgenerating firm to its own required electricity loads. Policy reforms that allow firms, whose operations are highly vulnerable to outages, to make a binding contract with utilities in order to get preferential supply are recommended.
We present results of the 2013 Energy Policy Research Group (EPRG) public opinion survey on smart... more We present results of the 2013 Energy Policy Research Group (EPRG) public opinion survey on smart metering and consumption behaviour. Our survey examines the energy consumption awareness and attitudes of the British public, the effect of peers on consumption behaviour, the potential for consumer engagement and consumer acceptance of various energy saving measures. wherever possible, comparisons were made to EPRG public opinion surveys from 2006, 2008 and 2010. The share of individuals that would not want their consumption data recorded at all has gone down from 2010 levels from 30% to 22% although numerous concerns remain. Smart devices do lead to behavioural response but the challenge is the sustainability of this behaviour change over time. The share of electricity monitor householders that read the monitor at least once in a week is 26%, compared to less than 5% of non-monitor households that reported checking their meters at least once a week. However, the reading habit declines over time. Peer influence is not found to have strong impacts on behaviour change. Affordable and user friendly applications on smart phones that inform people of their consumption are seen as promising tools to raise awareness and induce behaviour chan9e. There is scope for shifting load off-peak through smart technologies that minimise impact on availability and functionality, and guarantee consumer privacy.
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2012
ABSTRACT
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2011
Rapid economic growth and sustainable development depends largely on the level of infrastructural... more Rapid economic growth and sustainable development depends largely on the level of infrastructural development of a nation. This reasonably suggests that a good knowledge of the performance of infrastructural services in an economy is vital and an essential requirement for policy directed at attaining sound and vibrant economic development. Drawing from above, the study analyses the overall performance of the
Policy Research Working Papers, 2014
The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encoura... more The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.