N. Nakicenovic - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by N. Nakicenovic
Working Papers, 1998
Downloadable! The emission targets adopted in the Kyoto Protocol far exceeded the likely level of... more Downloadable! The emission targets adopted in the Kyoto Protocol far exceeded the likely level of emissions from Russia and Ukraine. These countries could sell their "bubbles" if the Protocol enters into force and industrialized countries establish an international emission trading ...
With 2 refs., 3 tabs., 6 figs. See also BMFT-FB-T--83-001SIGLEDEGerman
Climate Change 2007
Issues related to mitigation in the long-term context Contents Executive summary 3.1 Emissions sc... more Issues related to mitigation in the long-term context Contents Executive summary 3.1 Emissions scenarios 3.1.1 The purpose and definition of scenarios 3.1.2 Introduction to climate policy scenarios and stabilization metrics 3.1.3 Development trends and the lock-in effect of infrastructure choices 3.1.4 New theory of economic growth and convergence 3.1.5 Development paths in the context of mitigation 3.1.
La cuestion ecologica esta en estrecha relacion con el uso de la energia. A su vez, la explotacio... more La cuestion ecologica esta en estrecha relacion con el uso de la energia. A su vez, la explotacion energetica parece ser uno de los grandes interrogantes de nuestro siglo xxi; siglo, por otra parte, profundamente tecnologico. Debatir en torno a un optimismo o un pesimismo, resulta infecundo como ineficaz. Ahora bien, una tercera via parece atisbarse para hacer frente este reto global: la sobriedad energetica no dependera ni del clima ni de las politicas economicas sino de la eleccion de las tecnologias que se utilicen en el consumo, menos invasivas e intensivas y en la conciencia eficaz que los recursos naturales, que disponemos, presentan un limite.
Environmental Research Letters, 2021
Climate science provides strong evidence of the necessity of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, i... more Climate science provides strong evidence of the necessity of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, in line with the Paris Climate Agreement. The IPCC 1.5 °C special report (SR1.5) presents 414 emissions scenarios modelled for the report, of which around 50 are classified as ‘1.5 °C scenarios’, with no or low temperature overshoot. These emission scenarios differ in their reliance on individual mitigation levers, including reduction of global energy demand, decarbonisation of energy production, development of land-management systems, and the pace and scale of deploying carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. The reliance of 1.5 °C scenarios on these levers needs to be critically assessed in light of the potentials of the relevant technologies and roll-out plans. We use a set of five parameters to bundle and characterise the mitigation levers employed in the SR1.5 1.5 °C scenarios. For each of these levers, we draw on the literature to define ‘medium’ and ‘high’ upper bounds that deli...
Fuel and Energy Abstracts, 1996
The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) held its 40th Anniversary Confer... more The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) held its 40th Anniversary Conferencein October 2012. As a follow-up to the insightful presentations and discussions at the conference, it was decided to publish some of the research highlights as a special issue in this journal. Building upon IIASA's scientific foundations and agenda, this special issue has two major themes: Dealing with uncertainty in integrated analyses of human-environment systems; Social, technical and institutional transformatons in response to global sustainability challenges. Several papers illustrate methodological advances in dealing with uncertainties with practical applications related to major global and regional challenges such as food security, greenhouse gas emission reductions and moving towards green economy. Other papers illustrate a range of advances regarding multiple transformations and their versatile interconnected impacts with practical applications related to major global c...
Inter Academy …, 2007
... of Energy Economics at Vienna University of Technology & Leader of Energy and Technology ... more ... of Energy Economics at Vienna University of Technology & Leader of Energy and Technology Programs at IIASA Rajendra Pachauri (India), Director-General, The Energy and Resources Institute & Chairman, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Majid Shafie-Pour (Iran ...
Energy Policy, 2000
This paper presents a new method for modeling-induced technological learning and uncertainty in e... more This paper presents a new method for modeling-induced technological learning and uncertainty in energy systems. Three related features are introduced simultaneously: (1) increasing returns to scale for the costs of new technologies; (2) clusters of linked technologies that induce learning depending on their technological "proximity" in addition to the technology relations through the structure (and connections) of the energy system; and (3) uncertain costs of all technologies and energy sources. The energy systems-engineering model MESSAGE developed at IIASA was modified to include these three new features. MESSAGE is a linear programming optimization model. The starting point for this new approach was a global (single-region) energy systems version of the MESSAGE model that includes more than 100 different energy extraction, conversion, transport, distribution and end-use technologies. A new feature is that the future costs of all technologies are uncertain and assumed to be distributed according to the log-normal distribution. These are stylized distribution functions that indirectly reflect the cost distributions of energy technologies in the future based on the anal ysis of the IIASA energy technology inventory. In addition, the expected value of these cost distributions is assumed to decrease and variance to narrow with the increasing application of new technologies. This means that the process of technological learning is uncertain even as cumulative experience increases. New technologies include, for example, fuel cells, photovoltaic and wind energy conversion technologies. The technologies are related through the structure of energy system in MESSAGE. For example, cheaper wind energy has direct and indirect effects on other technologies that produce electricity upstream and on electric end-use technologies downstream. In addition, technologies are grouped into clusters that depend on technological "proximity." For example, the costs of all fuel cells for mobile applications are a function of their combined installed capacity weighted according to their expected unit sizes. This rel ationship depends on how closely the technologies are related. This varying degree of "collective" technological learning for technologies belonging to the same cluster is also uncertain. Each scenario of alternative future developments for a deterministic version of the global energy systems model MESSAGE requires approximately 10 min of CPU time on PC with Intel Pentium II 233 MHz and 128 MB of RAM. Therefore, it is simply infeasible to generate alternative future developments under uncertainty based on a simple Monte-Carlo type of analysis were one sequentially draws observations from the very large number of more than 200,000 cost distributions (100 technologies, 11 time steps, 10 technological clusters with 22 technologies included) assumed here for modeling technological learning and uncertainty. Instead, the new approach proposed here starts with a large but finite number of alternative energy systems "technology dynamics" and generates in "parallel" another large but finite number of deterministic scenarios by sampling from the distributions simultaneously for each of these technology dynamics. In this application, about 130,000 scenarios were generated. There were 520 alternative technology dynamics each with about 250 alternative deterministic scenarios resulting from the simultaneous stochastic samplings. Both numbers were initially varied before deciding that about 500 is a sufficient number of different technology dynamics required for a wide spectrum of alternative technological learning possibilities and that about 250 different deterministic scenarios is a sufficient number to generate most of the interesting future energy systems structures for each of the technology dynamics based on the analysis that in total produced roughly one million different scenarios. These large numbers of scenarios represent a very small subset of all possible ones that is basically infinite. They were not chosen randomly, but are a result of applying adaptive global search technique to the formulated non-convex, non-smooth stochastic problem. From the 520 alternative technology dynamics, about 53 resulted in scenarios with very similar overall energy systems cost. They have fundamentally different technological dynamics and produce a wide range of different emergent energy systems but can be considered to be approximately equivalent with respect to "optimality" criteria (in this case simultaneous cost and risk minimization). Thus, one of the results of the analysis is that different structures of energy system emerge with similar overall costs, i.e., that there is a large diversity across alternative energy technology strategies. The strategies are path dependent and it is not possible to choose a priori "optimal" direction of energy systems development.
The objective of this paper is to assess, on the basis of a number of indicative examples, the ti... more The objective of this paper is to assess, on the basis of a number of indicative examples, the time needed to build new and replace old transportation and energy systems, and their infrastructures. Most of the examples are taken from the United States, since the United States has been one of the few countries to experience most of the technological changes that occurred during the last 200 years. However, because most of these technological changes were subsequently disseminated throughout the world, the examples also indicate the dynamics of these processes elsewhere. Within the scope of this paper, the use of the term infrastructure is rather narrow, referring only to transportation and energy grids and networks, and other components of these two systems. These two systems are interesting because they played a crucial role in the economic and technological development process, are very capital intensive and, in general, have long lifetimes. The analysis of the historical developme...
Overview of all Submissions of Views for the IPCC Workshop on New Emission Scenarios The IPCC Sec... more Overview of all Submissions of Views for the IPCC Workshop on New Emission Scenarios The IPCC Secretary requested (1 March 2005), governments and international organizations to submit their views on the following questions: (i) What are your future needs with respect to new emission scenarios; to what extent have current and past IPCC scenario approaches fulfilled those needs? (ii) What kind of scenarios could meet your future needs and requirements? (iii) What possible roles could IPCC play in the development of new scenarios, in light of the outcomes of the discussion on objectives (i) and (ii)? Options may include: a. No specific role, other than assessing existing scenario literature, b. Organize a process with the scientific community in developing new scenarios (driven by the modellers), c. Develop new scenarios, as was the case with IS92 and SRES scenarios. This request was done in order to obtain a broad range of views from the main 'clients' of IPCC, being the governments that are members to the Panel, as input to the discussions at the workshop. This Annex provides the submitted views as received by IPCC.
Working Papers, 1998
Downloadable! The emission targets adopted in the Kyoto Protocol far exceeded the likely level of... more Downloadable! The emission targets adopted in the Kyoto Protocol far exceeded the likely level of emissions from Russia and Ukraine. These countries could sell their "bubbles" if the Protocol enters into force and industrialized countries establish an international emission trading ...
With 2 refs., 3 tabs., 6 figs. See also BMFT-FB-T--83-001SIGLEDEGerman
Climate Change 2007
Issues related to mitigation in the long-term context Contents Executive summary 3.1 Emissions sc... more Issues related to mitigation in the long-term context Contents Executive summary 3.1 Emissions scenarios 3.1.1 The purpose and definition of scenarios 3.1.2 Introduction to climate policy scenarios and stabilization metrics 3.1.3 Development trends and the lock-in effect of infrastructure choices 3.1.4 New theory of economic growth and convergence 3.1.5 Development paths in the context of mitigation 3.1.
La cuestion ecologica esta en estrecha relacion con el uso de la energia. A su vez, la explotacio... more La cuestion ecologica esta en estrecha relacion con el uso de la energia. A su vez, la explotacion energetica parece ser uno de los grandes interrogantes de nuestro siglo xxi; siglo, por otra parte, profundamente tecnologico. Debatir en torno a un optimismo o un pesimismo, resulta infecundo como ineficaz. Ahora bien, una tercera via parece atisbarse para hacer frente este reto global: la sobriedad energetica no dependera ni del clima ni de las politicas economicas sino de la eleccion de las tecnologias que se utilicen en el consumo, menos invasivas e intensivas y en la conciencia eficaz que los recursos naturales, que disponemos, presentan un limite.
Environmental Research Letters, 2021
Climate science provides strong evidence of the necessity of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, i... more Climate science provides strong evidence of the necessity of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, in line with the Paris Climate Agreement. The IPCC 1.5 °C special report (SR1.5) presents 414 emissions scenarios modelled for the report, of which around 50 are classified as ‘1.5 °C scenarios’, with no or low temperature overshoot. These emission scenarios differ in their reliance on individual mitigation levers, including reduction of global energy demand, decarbonisation of energy production, development of land-management systems, and the pace and scale of deploying carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. The reliance of 1.5 °C scenarios on these levers needs to be critically assessed in light of the potentials of the relevant technologies and roll-out plans. We use a set of five parameters to bundle and characterise the mitigation levers employed in the SR1.5 1.5 °C scenarios. For each of these levers, we draw on the literature to define ‘medium’ and ‘high’ upper bounds that deli...
Fuel and Energy Abstracts, 1996
The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) held its 40th Anniversary Confer... more The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) held its 40th Anniversary Conferencein October 2012. As a follow-up to the insightful presentations and discussions at the conference, it was decided to publish some of the research highlights as a special issue in this journal. Building upon IIASA's scientific foundations and agenda, this special issue has two major themes: Dealing with uncertainty in integrated analyses of human-environment systems; Social, technical and institutional transformatons in response to global sustainability challenges. Several papers illustrate methodological advances in dealing with uncertainties with practical applications related to major global and regional challenges such as food security, greenhouse gas emission reductions and moving towards green economy. Other papers illustrate a range of advances regarding multiple transformations and their versatile interconnected impacts with practical applications related to major global c...
Inter Academy …, 2007
... of Energy Economics at Vienna University of Technology & Leader of Energy and Technology ... more ... of Energy Economics at Vienna University of Technology & Leader of Energy and Technology Programs at IIASA Rajendra Pachauri (India), Director-General, The Energy and Resources Institute & Chairman, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Majid Shafie-Pour (Iran ...
Energy Policy, 2000
This paper presents a new method for modeling-induced technological learning and uncertainty in e... more This paper presents a new method for modeling-induced technological learning and uncertainty in energy systems. Three related features are introduced simultaneously: (1) increasing returns to scale for the costs of new technologies; (2) clusters of linked technologies that induce learning depending on their technological "proximity" in addition to the technology relations through the structure (and connections) of the energy system; and (3) uncertain costs of all technologies and energy sources. The energy systems-engineering model MESSAGE developed at IIASA was modified to include these three new features. MESSAGE is a linear programming optimization model. The starting point for this new approach was a global (single-region) energy systems version of the MESSAGE model that includes more than 100 different energy extraction, conversion, transport, distribution and end-use technologies. A new feature is that the future costs of all technologies are uncertain and assumed to be distributed according to the log-normal distribution. These are stylized distribution functions that indirectly reflect the cost distributions of energy technologies in the future based on the anal ysis of the IIASA energy technology inventory. In addition, the expected value of these cost distributions is assumed to decrease and variance to narrow with the increasing application of new technologies. This means that the process of technological learning is uncertain even as cumulative experience increases. New technologies include, for example, fuel cells, photovoltaic and wind energy conversion technologies. The technologies are related through the structure of energy system in MESSAGE. For example, cheaper wind energy has direct and indirect effects on other technologies that produce electricity upstream and on electric end-use technologies downstream. In addition, technologies are grouped into clusters that depend on technological "proximity." For example, the costs of all fuel cells for mobile applications are a function of their combined installed capacity weighted according to their expected unit sizes. This rel ationship depends on how closely the technologies are related. This varying degree of "collective" technological learning for technologies belonging to the same cluster is also uncertain. Each scenario of alternative future developments for a deterministic version of the global energy systems model MESSAGE requires approximately 10 min of CPU time on PC with Intel Pentium II 233 MHz and 128 MB of RAM. Therefore, it is simply infeasible to generate alternative future developments under uncertainty based on a simple Monte-Carlo type of analysis were one sequentially draws observations from the very large number of more than 200,000 cost distributions (100 technologies, 11 time steps, 10 technological clusters with 22 technologies included) assumed here for modeling technological learning and uncertainty. Instead, the new approach proposed here starts with a large but finite number of alternative energy systems "technology dynamics" and generates in "parallel" another large but finite number of deterministic scenarios by sampling from the distributions simultaneously for each of these technology dynamics. In this application, about 130,000 scenarios were generated. There were 520 alternative technology dynamics each with about 250 alternative deterministic scenarios resulting from the simultaneous stochastic samplings. Both numbers were initially varied before deciding that about 500 is a sufficient number of different technology dynamics required for a wide spectrum of alternative technological learning possibilities and that about 250 different deterministic scenarios is a sufficient number to generate most of the interesting future energy systems structures for each of the technology dynamics based on the analysis that in total produced roughly one million different scenarios. These large numbers of scenarios represent a very small subset of all possible ones that is basically infinite. They were not chosen randomly, but are a result of applying adaptive global search technique to the formulated non-convex, non-smooth stochastic problem. From the 520 alternative technology dynamics, about 53 resulted in scenarios with very similar overall energy systems cost. They have fundamentally different technological dynamics and produce a wide range of different emergent energy systems but can be considered to be approximately equivalent with respect to "optimality" criteria (in this case simultaneous cost and risk minimization). Thus, one of the results of the analysis is that different structures of energy system emerge with similar overall costs, i.e., that there is a large diversity across alternative energy technology strategies. The strategies are path dependent and it is not possible to choose a priori "optimal" direction of energy systems development.
The objective of this paper is to assess, on the basis of a number of indicative examples, the ti... more The objective of this paper is to assess, on the basis of a number of indicative examples, the time needed to build new and replace old transportation and energy systems, and their infrastructures. Most of the examples are taken from the United States, since the United States has been one of the few countries to experience most of the technological changes that occurred during the last 200 years. However, because most of these technological changes were subsequently disseminated throughout the world, the examples also indicate the dynamics of these processes elsewhere. Within the scope of this paper, the use of the term infrastructure is rather narrow, referring only to transportation and energy grids and networks, and other components of these two systems. These two systems are interesting because they played a crucial role in the economic and technological development process, are very capital intensive and, in general, have long lifetimes. The analysis of the historical developme...
Overview of all Submissions of Views for the IPCC Workshop on New Emission Scenarios The IPCC Sec... more Overview of all Submissions of Views for the IPCC Workshop on New Emission Scenarios The IPCC Secretary requested (1 March 2005), governments and international organizations to submit their views on the following questions: (i) What are your future needs with respect to new emission scenarios; to what extent have current and past IPCC scenario approaches fulfilled those needs? (ii) What kind of scenarios could meet your future needs and requirements? (iii) What possible roles could IPCC play in the development of new scenarios, in light of the outcomes of the discussion on objectives (i) and (ii)? Options may include: a. No specific role, other than assessing existing scenario literature, b. Organize a process with the scientific community in developing new scenarios (driven by the modellers), c. Develop new scenarios, as was the case with IS92 and SRES scenarios. This request was done in order to obtain a broad range of views from the main 'clients' of IPCC, being the governments that are members to the Panel, as input to the discussions at the workshop. This Annex provides the submitted views as received by IPCC.