Nathalie Butt - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Nathalie Butt

Research paper thumbnail of Climate extremes impact nectar and fruit availability

Research paper thumbnail of Gender bias and inequity holds women back in their conservation careers

Frontiers in Environmental Science, Jan 24, 2023

Research paper thumbnail of Summary of climate change impacts on tree species distribution, phenology, forest structure and composition for each of the 85 studies reviewed

Research paper thumbnail of A trait‐based framework for assessing the vulnerability of marine species to human impacts

Ecosphere, 2022

The University of Oxford Press has recently published two books on rhetoric, Michel Meyer's (Chaï... more The University of Oxford Press has recently published two books on rhetoric, Michel Meyer's (Chaïm Perelman's successor at the Université Libre de Bruxelles) What is Rhetoric and Martin Camper's Arguing Over Texts. Meyer and Camper build from the writings of the ancient Greek and Roman philosophers and rhetoricians to develop the role of questions in rhetoric (Meyer) and stasis theory (Camper). That both books, published by one of the leading academic presses in the world, feature a recovery and a modern renovation of the rhetorical tradition marks a potentially exciting moment in the contemporary history of rhetoric. Camper's book is but one of several illustrations of a renaissance in rhetorical history. Camper follows the line of argument set forth by Chaïm Perelman and Lucie Olbechts-Tyteca in their New Rhetoric Project and Douglas Walton in his "new dialectic." They chronicle the origins, development, and fall of an ancient rhetorical concept and then engage in its restoration. Similarly, Martin Camper tells the history of the origins, development, and fall of stasis theory, creating as a result a compelling exigence for a "systematically, theoretically grounded method for understanding and analyzing patterns of interpretative disputes and how those disputes are resolved" (3). Camper has developed a new interpretative stasis that complements the new rhetoric and dialectic. He has, with success, revived "ancient rhetorical theory to think about and solve modern problems" (3). Toward this end, he has offered scholars of rhetoric a gift: a modern method of "understanding and analyzing patterns of interpretative disputes" (3). Camper has read the ancient Greek and Roman rhetoricians with care, calling on select passages from Aristotle, Cicero, Hermagoras, Quintilian, and other Greek and Roman rhetoricians to ground his new interpretive stases. Because the rhetorical problems humans face recur, as do rhetorical situations, the theoretical insights Camper draws from Aristotle's Rhetoric, Hermagoras of Temnos's On Stases: A Manual for Declamation, Cicero's De Inventione, the anonymous Rhetorica ad Herennium, and Quintilian's The Orator's Education on stasis theory are strikingly relevant and helpful in the twenty-first century. Camper acknowledges the excellent work done by Fahnestock, Secor, and other modern scholars on stasis theory, building out of their contributions a truly novel system of six interpretative stases:

Research paper thumbnail of Data from: Allometry and growth of eight tree taxa in United Kingdom woodlands

As part of a project to develop predictive ecosystem models of United Kingdom woodlands we have c... more As part of a project to develop predictive ecosystem models of United Kingdom woodlands we have collated data from two United Kingdom woodlands - Wytham Woods and Alice Holt. Here we present data from 582 individual trees of eight taxa in the form of summary variables relating to the allometric relationships between trunk diameter, height, crown height, crown radius and trunk radial growth rate to the tree’s light environment and diameter at breast height. In addition the raw data files containing the variables from which the summary data were obtained. Large sample sizes with longitudinal data spanning 22 years make these datasets useful for future studies concerned with the way trees change in size and shape over their life-span

Research paper thumbnail of Title : A robust goal is needed for species in the Post-2020 Global 1 Biodiversity Framework

Affiliations: 9 School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Queensland, St Lucia 40... more Affiliations: 9 School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Queensland, St Lucia 4072, 10 Australia 11 Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, School of Biological Sciences, University of 12 Queensland, St Lucia 4072, Queensland, Australia. 13 Wildlife Conservation Society, Global Conservation Program, Bronx, NY 20460, USA. 14 BirdLife International, The David Attenborough Building, Pembroke Street, Cambridge CB2 15 3QZ, UK 16 Department of Zoology, Cambridge University, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK 17 IUCN, 28 rue Mauverney, CH-1196, Gland, Switzerland 18 World Agroforestry Center (ICRAF), University of the Philippines Los Baños, Laguna, 4031, 19 Philippines 20 Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia 21 School of Natural and Environmental Sciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, 22 NE1 7RU, UK 23 Synchronicity Earth, 27-29 Cursitor Street, London, EC4A 1LT, UK 24 RSPB Centre for Con...

Research paper thumbnail of Conservation and natural resource management: where are all the women?

Oryx, 2021

There is evidence from the development and humanitarian sectors that purposeful engagement of wom... more There is evidence from the development and humanitarian sectors that purposeful engagement of women can increase the impact of development. We conducted a literature review to examine whether this is also evident in conservation and natural resource management. The following themes emerged from our review: existing societal and cultural norms affect and generally limit how women can engage in conservation and natural resource management; women interact differently with the environment than men, so if they are excluded, their knowledge and perspectives on particular resources may not be considered in conservation actions; and there is often a lack of resources or dedicated effort by conservation or natural resource management programmes to understand and address the barriers that prevent women's engagement. Although there was evidence of a positive relationship between the engagement of women and environmental outcomes, some studies showed that positive conservation outcomes do n...

Research paper thumbnail of A robust goal is needed for species in the Post‐2020 Global Biodiversity Framework

Conservation Letters, 2020

Research paper thumbnail of Persistence of methodological, taxonomical, and geographical bias in assessments of species' vulnerability to climate change: A review

Global Ecology and Conservation, 2018

Species’ vulnerability to climate change has become a well-researched field in recent years: betw... more Species’ vulnerability to climate change has become a well-researched field in recent years: between 2000 and 2016, at least 743 articles reporting climate change vulnerability were published in the conservation literature. We reviewed this literature to assess the different methods used to assess vulnerability, how and whether vulnerability was formally assessed, and whether there are trends and biases in either the taxonomic group or the geographic focus of the studies. We found that mechanistic assessment methods prevailed, especially in plant-focused research. Species’ exposure to climate change was considered by almost all research articles (n = 741), but other key components of vulnerability, such as sensitivity and adaptive capacity, were addressed only by a minority (n = 499 and n = 103, respectively). Plants (n = 372) were by far the most studied taxon; invertebrates (n = 138), birds (n = 70), fishes (n = 70), mammals (n = 68), and other (n = 42) were the next most studied, but an order of magnitude lower. In terms of the locations of published studies, we found a clear bias towards most-developed nations. Research that does not focus on all three vulnerability components tends to either under- or over-estimate a species’ vulnerability to climate change or how they may be impacted. The identified spatial and taxonomic bias means a narrow understanding of the consequences of climate change. More resources should be directed towards the study of under-represented taxa, especially those in less developed countries, in order to gain a more holistic insight on the vulnerability of biodiversity to climate change.

Research paper thumbnail of The impact of climate change on the distribution of two threatened Dipterocarp trees

Ecology and evolution, 2017

Two ecologically and economically important, and threatened Dipterocarp trees Sal (Shorea robusta... more Two ecologically and economically important, and threatened Dipterocarp trees Sal (Shorea robusta) and Garjan (Dipterocarpus turbinatus) form mono-specific canopies in dry deciduous, moist deciduous, evergreen, and semievergreen forests across South Asia and continental parts of Southeast Asia. They provide valuable timber and play an important role in the economy of many Asian countries. However, both Dipterocarp trees are threatened by continuing forest clearing, habitat alteration, and global climate change. While climatic regimes in the Asian tropics are changing, research on climate change-driven shifts in the distribution of tropical Asian trees is limited. We applied a bioclimatic modeling approach to these two Dipterocarp trees Sal and Garjan. We used presence-only records for the tree species, five bioclimatic variables, and selected two climatic scenarios (RCP4.5: an optimistic scenario and RCP8.5: a pessimistic scenario) and three global climate models (GCMs) to encompass...

Research paper thumbnail of Changing trends and persisting biases in three decades of conservation science

Global Ecology and Conservation, 2017

Research paper thumbnail of Fires increase Amazon forest productivity through increases in diffuse radiation

Geophysical Research Letters, 2015

Research paper thumbnail of Eucalypts face increasing climate stress

Ecology and Evolution, 2013

Global climate change is already impacting species and ecosystems across the planet. Trees, altho... more Global climate change is already impacting species and ecosystems across the planet. Trees, although long-lived, are sensitive to changes in climate, including climate extremes. Shifts in tree species' distributions will influence biodiversity and ecosystem function at scales ranging from local to landscape; dry and hot regions will be especially vulnerable. The Australian continent has been especially susceptible to climate change with extreme heat waves, droughts, and flooding in recent years, and this climate trajectory is expected to continue. We sought to understand how climate change may impact Australian ecosystems by modeling distributional changes in eucalypt species, which dominate or codominate most forested ecosystems across Australia. We modeled a representative sample of Eucalyptus and Corymbia species (n = 108, or 14% of all species) using newly available Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios developed for the 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC, and bioclimatic and substrate predictor variables. We compared current, 2025, 2055, and 2085 distributions. Overall, Eucalyptus and Corymbia species in the central desert and open woodland regions will be the most affected, losing 20% of their climate space under the mid-range climate scenario and twice that under the extreme scenario. The least affected species, in eastern Australia, are likely to lose 10% of their climate space under the mid-range climate scenario and twice that under the extreme scenario. Range shifts will be lateral as well as polewards, and these east-west transitions will be more significant, reflecting the strong influence of precipitation rather than temperature changes in subtropical and midlatitudes. These net losses, and the direction of shifts and contractions in range, suggest that many species in the eastern and southern seaboards will be pushed toward the continental limit and that large tracts of currently treed landscapes, especially in the continental interior, will change dramatically in terms of species composition and ecosystem structure.

Research paper thumbnail of CTFS-ForestGEO: a worldwide network monitoring forests in an era of global change

Global Change Biology, 2014

Research paper thumbnail of Biodiversity Risks from Fossil Fuel Extraction

Science, 2013

The overlapping of biodiverse areas and fossil fuel reserves indicates high-risk regions.

Research paper thumbnail of Quantifying the sampling error in tree census measurements by volunteers and its effect on carbon stock estimates

Ecological Applications, 2013

A typical way to quantify aboveground carbon in forests is to measure tree diameters and use spec... more A typical way to quantify aboveground carbon in forests is to measure tree diameters and use species-specific allometric equations to estimate biomass and carbon stocks. Using ''citizen scientists'' to collect data that are usually time-consuming and labor-intensive can play a valuable role in ecological research. However, data validation, such as establishing the sampling error in volunteer measurements, is a crucial, but little studied, part of utilizing citizen science data. The aims of this study were to (1) evaluate the quality of tree diameter and height measurements carried out by volunteers compared to expert scientists and (2) estimate how sensitive carbon stock estimates are to these measurement sampling errors. Using all diameter data measured with a diameter tape, the volunteer mean sampling error (difference between repeated measurements of the same stem) was 9.9 mm, and the expert sampling error was 1.8 mm. Excluding those sampling errors .1 cm, the mean sampling errors were 2.3 mm (volunteers) and 1.4 mm (experts) (this excluded 14% [volunteer] and 3% [expert] of the data). The sampling error in diameter measurements had a small effect on the biomass estimates of the plots: a volunteer (expert) diameter sampling error of 2.3 mm (1.4 mm) translated into 1.7% (0.9%) change in the biomass estimates calculated from species-specific allometric equations based upon diameter. Height sampling error had a dependent relationship with tree height. Including height measurements in biomass calculations compounded the sampling error markedly; the impact of volunteer sampling error on biomass estimates was 615%, and the expert range was 69%. Using dendrometer bands, used to measure growth rates, we calculated that the volunteer (vs. expert) sampling error was 0.6 mm (vs. 0.3 mm), which is equivalent to a difference in carbon storage of 60.011 kg C/yr (vs. 60.002 kg C/yr) per stem. Using a citizen science model for monitoring carbon stocks not only has benefits in educating and engaging the public in science, but as demonstrated here, can also provide accurate estimates of biomass or forest carbon stocks.

Research paper thumbnail of Cascading effects of climate extremes on vertebrate fauna through changes to low-latitude tree flowering and fruiting phenology

Global Change Biology, 2015

Forest vertebrate fauna provide critical services, such as pollination and seed dispersal, which ... more Forest vertebrate fauna provide critical services, such as pollination and seed dispersal, which underpin functional and resilient ecosystems. In turn, many of these fauna are dependent on the flowering phenology of the plant species that constitute such ecosystems. The impact of changes in climate, including climate extremes, on the interaction between these fauna and 2 flora have not been identified or elucidated, yet influences on flowering phenology are already evident. These changes are well-documented in the mid to high latitudes. However, there is emerging evidence that the flowering phenology, nectar/pollen production, and fruit production of long-lived trees in tropical and subtropical forests are also being impacted by changes in frequency and severity of climate extremes. Here, we examine the implications of these changes for vertebrate fauna dependent on these resources. We review the literature to establish evidence for links between climate extremes and flowering phenology, elucidating the nature of relationships between different vertebrate taxa and flowering regimes. We combine this information with climate change projections to postulate about the likely impacts on nectar, pollen and fruit resource availability and the consequences for dependent vertebrate fauna. The most recent climate projections show that the frequency and intensity of climate extremes will increase during the 21 st century. These changes are likely to significantly alter mass flowering and fruiting events in the tropics and subtropics, which are frequently cued by climate extremes, such as intensive rainfall events or rapid temperature shifts. We find that in these systems the abundance and duration of resource availability for vertebrate fauna is likely to fluctuate, and the time intervals between episodes of high resource availability to increase. The combined impact of these changes has the potential to result in cascading effects on ecosystems through changes in pollinator and seed dispersal ecology and demands a focused research effort.

Research paper thumbnail of Author Correction: Tropical protected areas reduced deforestation carbon emissions by one third from 2000–2012

Research paper thumbnail of Using traits to assess threatened plant species response to climate change

Biodiversity and Conservation

Climate change poses significant challenges to the long-term management of threatened species. Pr... more Climate change poses significant challenges to the long-term management of threatened species. Pre-emptive assessments of the capacity for threatened species to adapt to climate change are essential for choosing appropriate management actions that minimise extinction risk. Here, we use species traits and range metrics linked to ecological performance to assess the capacity to respond to climate change of 342 plant species, listed as threatened under IUCN-compatible criteria in the Australian state of New South Wales (NSW). Traits capturing variation in phenology, morphology, physiology and geographic range were used to assess species’ response(s) to four factors likely to influence their climate change response: Reproduction, Movement Capability, Abiotic Niche Specialisation, and risk spreading across Spatial Coverage. Assessment scores were combined into high, medium and low rankings based on two complementary approaches for assessing climate change risk: (i) fully precautionary, where species were classified as high risk if any one of the four response factors was high; and (ii) integrative, combining scores across all four response factors to assign an overall risk ranking. 84% of threatened species assessed had a high risk ranking for at least one response factor, whereas 30, 55 and 15% of species were ranked high, medium or low respectively, based on our integrative measure of risk. Importantly, basic information for at least one trait for an additional 237 threatened plants in NSW was not available, despite thorough searching across 727 resources. This lack of fundamental baseline data for threatened plants may have wide-ranging implications for their management, including an inability to assess their response capacity to threats, and plan accordingly.

Research paper thumbnail of Arbuscular mycorrhizal trees influence the latitudinal beta-diversity gradient of tree communities in forests worldwide

Nature Communications

Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) and ectomycorrhizal (EcM) associations are critical for host-tree per... more Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) and ectomycorrhizal (EcM) associations are critical for host-tree performance. However, how mycorrhizal associations correlate with the latitudinal tree beta-diversity remains untested. Using a global dataset of 45 forest plots representing 2,804,270 trees across 3840 species, we test how AM and EcM trees contribute to total beta-diversity and its components (turnover and nestedness) of all trees. We find AM rather than EcM trees predominantly contribute to decreasing total beta-diversity and turnover and increasing nestedness with increasing latitude, probably because wide distributions of EcM trees do not generate strong compositional differences among localities. Environmental variables, especially temperature and precipitation, are strongly correlated with beta-diversity patterns for both AM trees and all trees rather than EcM trees. Results support our hypotheses that latitudinal beta-diversity patterns and environmental effects on these patterns are...

Research paper thumbnail of Climate extremes impact nectar and fruit availability

Research paper thumbnail of Gender bias and inequity holds women back in their conservation careers

Frontiers in Environmental Science, Jan 24, 2023

Research paper thumbnail of Summary of climate change impacts on tree species distribution, phenology, forest structure and composition for each of the 85 studies reviewed

Research paper thumbnail of A trait‐based framework for assessing the vulnerability of marine species to human impacts

Ecosphere, 2022

The University of Oxford Press has recently published two books on rhetoric, Michel Meyer's (Chaï... more The University of Oxford Press has recently published two books on rhetoric, Michel Meyer's (Chaïm Perelman's successor at the Université Libre de Bruxelles) What is Rhetoric and Martin Camper's Arguing Over Texts. Meyer and Camper build from the writings of the ancient Greek and Roman philosophers and rhetoricians to develop the role of questions in rhetoric (Meyer) and stasis theory (Camper). That both books, published by one of the leading academic presses in the world, feature a recovery and a modern renovation of the rhetorical tradition marks a potentially exciting moment in the contemporary history of rhetoric. Camper's book is but one of several illustrations of a renaissance in rhetorical history. Camper follows the line of argument set forth by Chaïm Perelman and Lucie Olbechts-Tyteca in their New Rhetoric Project and Douglas Walton in his "new dialectic." They chronicle the origins, development, and fall of an ancient rhetorical concept and then engage in its restoration. Similarly, Martin Camper tells the history of the origins, development, and fall of stasis theory, creating as a result a compelling exigence for a "systematically, theoretically grounded method for understanding and analyzing patterns of interpretative disputes and how those disputes are resolved" (3). Camper has developed a new interpretative stasis that complements the new rhetoric and dialectic. He has, with success, revived "ancient rhetorical theory to think about and solve modern problems" (3). Toward this end, he has offered scholars of rhetoric a gift: a modern method of "understanding and analyzing patterns of interpretative disputes" (3). Camper has read the ancient Greek and Roman rhetoricians with care, calling on select passages from Aristotle, Cicero, Hermagoras, Quintilian, and other Greek and Roman rhetoricians to ground his new interpretive stases. Because the rhetorical problems humans face recur, as do rhetorical situations, the theoretical insights Camper draws from Aristotle's Rhetoric, Hermagoras of Temnos's On Stases: A Manual for Declamation, Cicero's De Inventione, the anonymous Rhetorica ad Herennium, and Quintilian's The Orator's Education on stasis theory are strikingly relevant and helpful in the twenty-first century. Camper acknowledges the excellent work done by Fahnestock, Secor, and other modern scholars on stasis theory, building out of their contributions a truly novel system of six interpretative stases:

Research paper thumbnail of Data from: Allometry and growth of eight tree taxa in United Kingdom woodlands

As part of a project to develop predictive ecosystem models of United Kingdom woodlands we have c... more As part of a project to develop predictive ecosystem models of United Kingdom woodlands we have collated data from two United Kingdom woodlands - Wytham Woods and Alice Holt. Here we present data from 582 individual trees of eight taxa in the form of summary variables relating to the allometric relationships between trunk diameter, height, crown height, crown radius and trunk radial growth rate to the tree’s light environment and diameter at breast height. In addition the raw data files containing the variables from which the summary data were obtained. Large sample sizes with longitudinal data spanning 22 years make these datasets useful for future studies concerned with the way trees change in size and shape over their life-span

Research paper thumbnail of Title : A robust goal is needed for species in the Post-2020 Global 1 Biodiversity Framework

Affiliations: 9 School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Queensland, St Lucia 40... more Affiliations: 9 School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Queensland, St Lucia 4072, 10 Australia 11 Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, School of Biological Sciences, University of 12 Queensland, St Lucia 4072, Queensland, Australia. 13 Wildlife Conservation Society, Global Conservation Program, Bronx, NY 20460, USA. 14 BirdLife International, The David Attenborough Building, Pembroke Street, Cambridge CB2 15 3QZ, UK 16 Department of Zoology, Cambridge University, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK 17 IUCN, 28 rue Mauverney, CH-1196, Gland, Switzerland 18 World Agroforestry Center (ICRAF), University of the Philippines Los Baños, Laguna, 4031, 19 Philippines 20 Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia 21 School of Natural and Environmental Sciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, 22 NE1 7RU, UK 23 Synchronicity Earth, 27-29 Cursitor Street, London, EC4A 1LT, UK 24 RSPB Centre for Con...

Research paper thumbnail of Conservation and natural resource management: where are all the women?

Oryx, 2021

There is evidence from the development and humanitarian sectors that purposeful engagement of wom... more There is evidence from the development and humanitarian sectors that purposeful engagement of women can increase the impact of development. We conducted a literature review to examine whether this is also evident in conservation and natural resource management. The following themes emerged from our review: existing societal and cultural norms affect and generally limit how women can engage in conservation and natural resource management; women interact differently with the environment than men, so if they are excluded, their knowledge and perspectives on particular resources may not be considered in conservation actions; and there is often a lack of resources or dedicated effort by conservation or natural resource management programmes to understand and address the barriers that prevent women's engagement. Although there was evidence of a positive relationship between the engagement of women and environmental outcomes, some studies showed that positive conservation outcomes do n...

Research paper thumbnail of A robust goal is needed for species in the Post‐2020 Global Biodiversity Framework

Conservation Letters, 2020

Research paper thumbnail of Persistence of methodological, taxonomical, and geographical bias in assessments of species' vulnerability to climate change: A review

Global Ecology and Conservation, 2018

Species’ vulnerability to climate change has become a well-researched field in recent years: betw... more Species’ vulnerability to climate change has become a well-researched field in recent years: between 2000 and 2016, at least 743 articles reporting climate change vulnerability were published in the conservation literature. We reviewed this literature to assess the different methods used to assess vulnerability, how and whether vulnerability was formally assessed, and whether there are trends and biases in either the taxonomic group or the geographic focus of the studies. We found that mechanistic assessment methods prevailed, especially in plant-focused research. Species’ exposure to climate change was considered by almost all research articles (n = 741), but other key components of vulnerability, such as sensitivity and adaptive capacity, were addressed only by a minority (n = 499 and n = 103, respectively). Plants (n = 372) were by far the most studied taxon; invertebrates (n = 138), birds (n = 70), fishes (n = 70), mammals (n = 68), and other (n = 42) were the next most studied, but an order of magnitude lower. In terms of the locations of published studies, we found a clear bias towards most-developed nations. Research that does not focus on all three vulnerability components tends to either under- or over-estimate a species’ vulnerability to climate change or how they may be impacted. The identified spatial and taxonomic bias means a narrow understanding of the consequences of climate change. More resources should be directed towards the study of under-represented taxa, especially those in less developed countries, in order to gain a more holistic insight on the vulnerability of biodiversity to climate change.

Research paper thumbnail of The impact of climate change on the distribution of two threatened Dipterocarp trees

Ecology and evolution, 2017

Two ecologically and economically important, and threatened Dipterocarp trees Sal (Shorea robusta... more Two ecologically and economically important, and threatened Dipterocarp trees Sal (Shorea robusta) and Garjan (Dipterocarpus turbinatus) form mono-specific canopies in dry deciduous, moist deciduous, evergreen, and semievergreen forests across South Asia and continental parts of Southeast Asia. They provide valuable timber and play an important role in the economy of many Asian countries. However, both Dipterocarp trees are threatened by continuing forest clearing, habitat alteration, and global climate change. While climatic regimes in the Asian tropics are changing, research on climate change-driven shifts in the distribution of tropical Asian trees is limited. We applied a bioclimatic modeling approach to these two Dipterocarp trees Sal and Garjan. We used presence-only records for the tree species, five bioclimatic variables, and selected two climatic scenarios (RCP4.5: an optimistic scenario and RCP8.5: a pessimistic scenario) and three global climate models (GCMs) to encompass...

Research paper thumbnail of Changing trends and persisting biases in three decades of conservation science

Global Ecology and Conservation, 2017

Research paper thumbnail of Fires increase Amazon forest productivity through increases in diffuse radiation

Geophysical Research Letters, 2015

Research paper thumbnail of Eucalypts face increasing climate stress

Ecology and Evolution, 2013

Global climate change is already impacting species and ecosystems across the planet. Trees, altho... more Global climate change is already impacting species and ecosystems across the planet. Trees, although long-lived, are sensitive to changes in climate, including climate extremes. Shifts in tree species' distributions will influence biodiversity and ecosystem function at scales ranging from local to landscape; dry and hot regions will be especially vulnerable. The Australian continent has been especially susceptible to climate change with extreme heat waves, droughts, and flooding in recent years, and this climate trajectory is expected to continue. We sought to understand how climate change may impact Australian ecosystems by modeling distributional changes in eucalypt species, which dominate or codominate most forested ecosystems across Australia. We modeled a representative sample of Eucalyptus and Corymbia species (n = 108, or 14% of all species) using newly available Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios developed for the 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC, and bioclimatic and substrate predictor variables. We compared current, 2025, 2055, and 2085 distributions. Overall, Eucalyptus and Corymbia species in the central desert and open woodland regions will be the most affected, losing 20% of their climate space under the mid-range climate scenario and twice that under the extreme scenario. The least affected species, in eastern Australia, are likely to lose 10% of their climate space under the mid-range climate scenario and twice that under the extreme scenario. Range shifts will be lateral as well as polewards, and these east-west transitions will be more significant, reflecting the strong influence of precipitation rather than temperature changes in subtropical and midlatitudes. These net losses, and the direction of shifts and contractions in range, suggest that many species in the eastern and southern seaboards will be pushed toward the continental limit and that large tracts of currently treed landscapes, especially in the continental interior, will change dramatically in terms of species composition and ecosystem structure.

Research paper thumbnail of CTFS-ForestGEO: a worldwide network monitoring forests in an era of global change

Global Change Biology, 2014

Research paper thumbnail of Biodiversity Risks from Fossil Fuel Extraction

Science, 2013

The overlapping of biodiverse areas and fossil fuel reserves indicates high-risk regions.

Research paper thumbnail of Quantifying the sampling error in tree census measurements by volunteers and its effect on carbon stock estimates

Ecological Applications, 2013

A typical way to quantify aboveground carbon in forests is to measure tree diameters and use spec... more A typical way to quantify aboveground carbon in forests is to measure tree diameters and use species-specific allometric equations to estimate biomass and carbon stocks. Using ''citizen scientists'' to collect data that are usually time-consuming and labor-intensive can play a valuable role in ecological research. However, data validation, such as establishing the sampling error in volunteer measurements, is a crucial, but little studied, part of utilizing citizen science data. The aims of this study were to (1) evaluate the quality of tree diameter and height measurements carried out by volunteers compared to expert scientists and (2) estimate how sensitive carbon stock estimates are to these measurement sampling errors. Using all diameter data measured with a diameter tape, the volunteer mean sampling error (difference between repeated measurements of the same stem) was 9.9 mm, and the expert sampling error was 1.8 mm. Excluding those sampling errors .1 cm, the mean sampling errors were 2.3 mm (volunteers) and 1.4 mm (experts) (this excluded 14% [volunteer] and 3% [expert] of the data). The sampling error in diameter measurements had a small effect on the biomass estimates of the plots: a volunteer (expert) diameter sampling error of 2.3 mm (1.4 mm) translated into 1.7% (0.9%) change in the biomass estimates calculated from species-specific allometric equations based upon diameter. Height sampling error had a dependent relationship with tree height. Including height measurements in biomass calculations compounded the sampling error markedly; the impact of volunteer sampling error on biomass estimates was 615%, and the expert range was 69%. Using dendrometer bands, used to measure growth rates, we calculated that the volunteer (vs. expert) sampling error was 0.6 mm (vs. 0.3 mm), which is equivalent to a difference in carbon storage of 60.011 kg C/yr (vs. 60.002 kg C/yr) per stem. Using a citizen science model for monitoring carbon stocks not only has benefits in educating and engaging the public in science, but as demonstrated here, can also provide accurate estimates of biomass or forest carbon stocks.

Research paper thumbnail of Cascading effects of climate extremes on vertebrate fauna through changes to low-latitude tree flowering and fruiting phenology

Global Change Biology, 2015

Forest vertebrate fauna provide critical services, such as pollination and seed dispersal, which ... more Forest vertebrate fauna provide critical services, such as pollination and seed dispersal, which underpin functional and resilient ecosystems. In turn, many of these fauna are dependent on the flowering phenology of the plant species that constitute such ecosystems. The impact of changes in climate, including climate extremes, on the interaction between these fauna and 2 flora have not been identified or elucidated, yet influences on flowering phenology are already evident. These changes are well-documented in the mid to high latitudes. However, there is emerging evidence that the flowering phenology, nectar/pollen production, and fruit production of long-lived trees in tropical and subtropical forests are also being impacted by changes in frequency and severity of climate extremes. Here, we examine the implications of these changes for vertebrate fauna dependent on these resources. We review the literature to establish evidence for links between climate extremes and flowering phenology, elucidating the nature of relationships between different vertebrate taxa and flowering regimes. We combine this information with climate change projections to postulate about the likely impacts on nectar, pollen and fruit resource availability and the consequences for dependent vertebrate fauna. The most recent climate projections show that the frequency and intensity of climate extremes will increase during the 21 st century. These changes are likely to significantly alter mass flowering and fruiting events in the tropics and subtropics, which are frequently cued by climate extremes, such as intensive rainfall events or rapid temperature shifts. We find that in these systems the abundance and duration of resource availability for vertebrate fauna is likely to fluctuate, and the time intervals between episodes of high resource availability to increase. The combined impact of these changes has the potential to result in cascading effects on ecosystems through changes in pollinator and seed dispersal ecology and demands a focused research effort.

Research paper thumbnail of Author Correction: Tropical protected areas reduced deforestation carbon emissions by one third from 2000–2012

Research paper thumbnail of Using traits to assess threatened plant species response to climate change

Biodiversity and Conservation

Climate change poses significant challenges to the long-term management of threatened species. Pr... more Climate change poses significant challenges to the long-term management of threatened species. Pre-emptive assessments of the capacity for threatened species to adapt to climate change are essential for choosing appropriate management actions that minimise extinction risk. Here, we use species traits and range metrics linked to ecological performance to assess the capacity to respond to climate change of 342 plant species, listed as threatened under IUCN-compatible criteria in the Australian state of New South Wales (NSW). Traits capturing variation in phenology, morphology, physiology and geographic range were used to assess species’ response(s) to four factors likely to influence their climate change response: Reproduction, Movement Capability, Abiotic Niche Specialisation, and risk spreading across Spatial Coverage. Assessment scores were combined into high, medium and low rankings based on two complementary approaches for assessing climate change risk: (i) fully precautionary, where species were classified as high risk if any one of the four response factors was high; and (ii) integrative, combining scores across all four response factors to assign an overall risk ranking. 84% of threatened species assessed had a high risk ranking for at least one response factor, whereas 30, 55 and 15% of species were ranked high, medium or low respectively, based on our integrative measure of risk. Importantly, basic information for at least one trait for an additional 237 threatened plants in NSW was not available, despite thorough searching across 727 resources. This lack of fundamental baseline data for threatened plants may have wide-ranging implications for their management, including an inability to assess their response capacity to threats, and plan accordingly.

Research paper thumbnail of Arbuscular mycorrhizal trees influence the latitudinal beta-diversity gradient of tree communities in forests worldwide

Nature Communications

Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) and ectomycorrhizal (EcM) associations are critical for host-tree per... more Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) and ectomycorrhizal (EcM) associations are critical for host-tree performance. However, how mycorrhizal associations correlate with the latitudinal tree beta-diversity remains untested. Using a global dataset of 45 forest plots representing 2,804,270 trees across 3840 species, we test how AM and EcM trees contribute to total beta-diversity and its components (turnover and nestedness) of all trees. We find AM rather than EcM trees predominantly contribute to decreasing total beta-diversity and turnover and increasing nestedness with increasing latitude, probably because wide distributions of EcM trees do not generate strong compositional differences among localities. Environmental variables, especially temperature and precipitation, are strongly correlated with beta-diversity patterns for both AM trees and all trees rather than EcM trees. Results support our hypotheses that latitudinal beta-diversity patterns and environmental effects on these patterns are...