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Papers by Nguyễn Nhung
ASEAN economic bulletin, 2002
In December 2001 a bilateral trade agreement (BTA) between Vietnam and the United States came int... more In December 2001 a bilateral trade agreement (BTA) between Vietnam and the United States came into effect. The U.S. agreed to accord most favored nation (MFN) status to Vietnam, lowering the effective tariff on imports from Vietnam from 40% to 3%. Vietnam will lower its tariffs, protect intellectual property, allow U.S. firms to invest in most service sectors, eliminate trade-related investment measures, and bring transparency to trade policy. Using a static computable general equilibrium model, Fukase and Martin find that the BTA would double Vietnam's exports to the U.S. and boost Vietnam's GDP by 0.9%. Potentially more important is the effect that the BTA would have on foreign direct investment (FDI) flows into Vietnam. We quantify this effect by first specifying and estimating a model of the determinants of FDI, using data from 16 Asian countries for 1990-1999. The model allows us to isolate the effect of MFN status (and WTO membership) on FDI inflows. The BTA should lead to 30% more FDI into Vietnam in the first year, and an eventual doubling of the flow. This would boost economic growth by 0.6 percentage points annually. However the inflow would only be maintained if Vietnam makes the necessary changes and joins the WTO by 2005.
ASEAN economic bulletin, 2002
In December 2001 a bilateral trade agreement (BTA) between Vietnam and the United States came int... more In December 2001 a bilateral trade agreement (BTA) between Vietnam and the United States came into effect. The U.S. agreed to accord most favored nation (MFN) status to Vietnam, lowering the effective tariff on imports from Vietnam from 40% to 3%. Vietnam will lower its tariffs, protect intellectual property, allow U.S. firms to invest in most service sectors, eliminate trade-related investment measures, and bring transparency to trade policy. Using a static computable general equilibrium model, Fukase and Martin find that the BTA would double Vietnam's exports to the U.S. and boost Vietnam's GDP by 0.9%. Potentially more important is the effect that the BTA would have on foreign direct investment (FDI) flows into Vietnam. We quantify this effect by first specifying and estimating a model of the determinants of FDI, using data from 16 Asian countries for 1990-1999. The model allows us to isolate the effect of MFN status (and WTO membership) on FDI inflows. The BTA should lead to 30% more FDI into Vietnam in the first year, and an eventual doubling of the flow. This would boost economic growth by 0.6 percentage points annually. However the inflow would only be maintained if Vietnam makes the necessary changes and joins the WTO by 2005.