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Papers by Nicolas Fanta

Research paper thumbnail of Artificial intelligence and central bank communication: the case of the ECB

Applied economics letters, Apr 9, 2024

Research paper thumbnail of Does central bank communication signal future monetary policy? The case of the ECB

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, May 1, 2019

We examine the European Central Bank's ad-hoc communication and explore how it informs future mon... more We examine the European Central Bank's ad-hoc communication and explore how it informs future monetary policy decisions. Using the rich dataset of the intermeeting verbal communication among the members of the European Central Bank's Governing Council between 2008 and 2014, we construct a measure of communication assessing its inclination towards easing, tightening or maintaining the monetary policy stance. We find that this measure provides useful additional information about future monetary policy decisions, even when we control for market-based interest rate expectations and lagged decisions. Our results also suggest that, in particular, communication shortly before monetary policy meetings, related to unconventional measures and/or by the ECB President explain the future ECB rate changes well. Overall, these results point to the importance of transparency in understanding the future course of monetary policy.

Research paper thumbnail of Price Elasticity of Alcohol Demand: A Meta-Analysis

Research paper thumbnail of Does Central Bank Communication Signal Future Monetary Policy in a (post)-Crisis Era? The Case of the ECB

Journal of International Money and Finance, 2020

Abstract We examine the European Central Bank’s ad-hoc communication and explore how it informs f... more Abstract We examine the European Central Bank’s ad-hoc communication and explore how it informs future monetary policy decisions. Using the rich dataset of the inter-meeting verbal communication by the members of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council between 2008 and 2016, we construct a measure of communication evaluating its inclination towards easing, tightening or maintaining the monetary policy stance. We find that this measure provides useful additional information about future monetary policy decisions, even when we control for market-based interest rate expectations and lagged decisions. Our results also suggest that, in particular, communication related to conventional measures and/or by the ECB President explain the future ECB rate changes well. All aforementioned results hold also in the environment of the zero lower bound. Overall, these results point to the importance of transparent communication in understanding the future course of monetary policy.

Research paper thumbnail of ECB's Oral Communication and Future Monetary Policy

Research paper thumbnail of Does Central Bank Communication Signal Future Monetary Policy in a (post)-Crisis Era? The Case of the ECB

Journal of International Money and Finance

We examine the European Central Bank's ad-hoc communication and explore how it informs future mon... more We examine the European Central Bank's ad-hoc communication and explore how it informs future monetary policy decisions. Using the rich dataset of the intermeeting verbal communication among the members of the European Central Bank's Governing Council between 2008 and 2014, we construct a measure of communication assessing its inclination towards easing, tightening or maintaining the monetary policy stance. We find that this measure provides useful additional information about future monetary policy decisions, even when we control for market-based interest rate expectations and lagged decisions. Our results also suggest that, in particular, communication shortly before monetary policy meetings, related to unconventional measures and/or by the ECB President explain the future ECB rate changes well. Overall, these results point to the importance of transparency in understanding the future course of monetary policy.

Research paper thumbnail of Artificial intelligence and central bank communication: the case of the ECB

Applied economics letters, Apr 9, 2024

Research paper thumbnail of Does central bank communication signal future monetary policy? The case of the ECB

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, May 1, 2019

We examine the European Central Bank's ad-hoc communication and explore how it informs future mon... more We examine the European Central Bank's ad-hoc communication and explore how it informs future monetary policy decisions. Using the rich dataset of the intermeeting verbal communication among the members of the European Central Bank's Governing Council between 2008 and 2014, we construct a measure of communication assessing its inclination towards easing, tightening or maintaining the monetary policy stance. We find that this measure provides useful additional information about future monetary policy decisions, even when we control for market-based interest rate expectations and lagged decisions. Our results also suggest that, in particular, communication shortly before monetary policy meetings, related to unconventional measures and/or by the ECB President explain the future ECB rate changes well. Overall, these results point to the importance of transparency in understanding the future course of monetary policy.

Research paper thumbnail of Price Elasticity of Alcohol Demand: A Meta-Analysis

Research paper thumbnail of Does Central Bank Communication Signal Future Monetary Policy in a (post)-Crisis Era? The Case of the ECB

Journal of International Money and Finance, 2020

Abstract We examine the European Central Bank’s ad-hoc communication and explore how it informs f... more Abstract We examine the European Central Bank’s ad-hoc communication and explore how it informs future monetary policy decisions. Using the rich dataset of the inter-meeting verbal communication by the members of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council between 2008 and 2016, we construct a measure of communication evaluating its inclination towards easing, tightening or maintaining the monetary policy stance. We find that this measure provides useful additional information about future monetary policy decisions, even when we control for market-based interest rate expectations and lagged decisions. Our results also suggest that, in particular, communication related to conventional measures and/or by the ECB President explain the future ECB rate changes well. All aforementioned results hold also in the environment of the zero lower bound. Overall, these results point to the importance of transparent communication in understanding the future course of monetary policy.

Research paper thumbnail of ECB's Oral Communication and Future Monetary Policy

Research paper thumbnail of Does Central Bank Communication Signal Future Monetary Policy in a (post)-Crisis Era? The Case of the ECB

Journal of International Money and Finance

We examine the European Central Bank's ad-hoc communication and explore how it informs future mon... more We examine the European Central Bank's ad-hoc communication and explore how it informs future monetary policy decisions. Using the rich dataset of the intermeeting verbal communication among the members of the European Central Bank's Governing Council between 2008 and 2014, we construct a measure of communication assessing its inclination towards easing, tightening or maintaining the monetary policy stance. We find that this measure provides useful additional information about future monetary policy decisions, even when we control for market-based interest rate expectations and lagged decisions. Our results also suggest that, in particular, communication shortly before monetary policy meetings, related to unconventional measures and/or by the ECB President explain the future ECB rate changes well. Overall, these results point to the importance of transparency in understanding the future course of monetary policy.

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