Olumuyiwa Olamade - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Olumuyiwa Olamade

Acta Universitatis Danubius, 2023

Numerous studies have tested the validity of the export-led growth hypothesis, yet, fewer studies... more Numerous studies have tested the validity of the export-led growth hypothesis, yet, fewer studies have considered the disaggregated exports into oil and non-oil exports-growth nexus and also test whether oil and non-oil exports cause economic growth in the literature. Therefore, this study tests the validity ofthe export-led growth hypothesis in Nigeria's oil and non-oil exports over the study period of 1970 to 2021. In line with the specific objectives of this study, autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and Granger causality tests were employed to estimate the short-run and long-run export-growth relationship as well as test the validity of the export-led growth hypothesis respectively. Annual secondary data was employed for this study. Results of this study found that oil exports and non-oil exports have negative and positive significant effects on economic growth in the short run and long run at 1% and 10% respectively. Furthermore, the findings revealed that the export-led growth hypothesis (ELGH) is not valid because the unidirectional causal relationship between oil and non-exports to economic growth was not statistically significant in Nigeria. Lastly, the study recommends the need to intensify the exports drive policies to improve and strengthen the oil exports and non-oil export sectors that will cause economic growth in the country, Nigeria.

Developing Country Studies, 2021

This study has two goals: first, to investigate the effects of private and government consumption... more This study has two goals: first, to investigate the effects of private and government consumption expenditures as well as imports and exports on economic growth in Nigeria. Second, to analyse the implications of these expenditures for manufacturing sector expansion given the special growth-enhancing properties of manufacturing as articulated in the theoretical and empirical literature. Our estimations of the three models specified for the study are based on the Nigeria time-series data from the World Development Indicators database between 1981 and 2019 using Pesaran's ARDL regression methodology after testing the trend properties of the series. The validity and reliability of regression results were certified by the regression diagnostics.Our findings support significant positive effects of private consumption expenditure and exports on economic growth while government consumption expenditure and imports exert a significant negative impact on growth. These two expenditures that grow the economy neither significantly expand nor decrease manufacturing as the positive impacts of private consumption expenditure and the negative impacts of exports were insignificant. The negative effects on manufacturing of government consumption expenditure and imports were not significant. However, economic growth was found to significantly expand manufacturing activities. We conclude that over two-thirds of Gross Domestic Product expenditures constitute a leakage from the economy being insignificant to drive manufacturing expansion. The resultant loss of the flow of growth-enhancing externalities from manufacturing to other sectors of the economy may constrain future economic growth or cause the economy to grow in an unsustainable manner.

Developing Country Studies, 2016

This paper examines the long-run intersectoral dynamics and effect of externalities from sectoral... more This paper examines the long-run intersectoral dynamics and effect of externalities from sectoral expansion on growth in Nigeria using time series data from 1981 to 2014. The real value added of the agriculture, manufacturing, minerals and services sectors was regressed against the real gross domestic product (GDP). We use the bounds testing approach to check the long-run interdependence of sectors while impulse response functions and variance decompositions test the direction and strength of linkages among the sectors. Our tests confirm the sectors evolve interdependently over the study period. The minerals sector is the most linked sector with two-way linkages to other sectors. The services sector shows the strongest backward linkage. However, both the minerals and services sectors are not significant in explaining variations in the GDP. The strength and extent of agriculture and manufacturing linkages are much less compare to minerals. Nevertheless, they are positive and signific...

Between 1981 and 2013, services share of gross domestic product in Nigeria grew five times the sh... more Between 1981 and 2013, services share of gross domestic product in Nigeria grew five times the share of manufacturing coming second to agriculture. However, the output growth rates of services and manufacturing exceed that of agriculture. The study formulated the question as to whether the observed services sector expansion can support long-term economic growth. Two models were specified for estimation with manufacturing and agriculture as dependent variables and vectors of services outputs as independent variables. Data expressed in 1990 constant basic prices were sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria and expressed in logarithm form for regression. Using two test statistics, all variables in the regression were confirmed stationary at not more than one order of integration Given that the variables are cointegrated, the autoregressive distributed lag model and three other augmented static estimators were applied to the models. All diagnostics tests support the stability of our models...

Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 2019

The study tests the proposition that structural transformation drives capital formation which in ... more The study tests the proposition that structural transformation drives capital formation which in turn underlies development through the expansion of gross domestic product (GDP). Relevant data consistent with extant literature were obtained from the World Development Indicators between 1980 to 2017 and checked for integration and mean reversion properties. Having obtained satisfactory results from the pre-regression tests, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) regression was chosen to fit the series. Post-regression evaluations check about the assumptions of normality, serial correlation, and homoskedasticity were all satisfactory to enable us to draw valid inference. Our results find no long-run evidence of structural transformation as a process of fixed capital formation in Nigeria. The correlation between the two is strongly negative. The GDP provides the most powerful and significant drive for fixed capital formation as well as the volume of domestic credit to the private sector, gross domestic saving, and the real rate of interest. The pattern of structural transformation observed showed an industrial structure comprising weak and low-capital intensive industries. The study recommends an industrial road map focused on both the industrialisation of agriculture and the creation of capital-intensive industries to drive sustained fixed capital accumulation.

Advances in Management and Applied Economics, 2013

The key question answered in this paper is, what characterises the manufacturing business environ... more The key question answered in this paper is, what characterises the manufacturing business environment in Nigeria and how are firms and government supposed to react? Based on a sample of manufacturing firms, our findings show that the environment, though complex-changing, is analysable. We offer some explanations for and draw strategic implications from these results. In a large, protected low-income country with a weak propensity to export and low technology sophistication, a largely predictable business environment is to be expected. However, turbulence may arise from intertemporal changes in levels of consumersâ€™ real income, which may necessitate technology upgrade to meet increasing demands for better products and variety. Policy interventions that support such upgrading are thus required.

International Journal of Asian Social Science

Trade generally has been linked to high economic growth and technology diffusion across and withi... more Trade generally has been linked to high economic growth and technology diffusion across and within economies. This study thus sets out to investigate, in the context of Nigeria, the economic growth impacts of technology and trade using three proxies of trade openness- the ratio of total exports and imports to the gross domestic product (GDP); the total volume of exports; and imports. Fixed telephone plus mobile cellular subscriptions were used as a proxy for technology. With data extracted from the World Development Indicators, three models were estimated using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework for cointegration and determination of long-run coefficients of parameters. Granger causality tests were performed to determine the direction of causalities. The results of all the tests were interpreted to arrive at the inferences and conclusions drawn for this work. Trade openness and exports were found to be detrimental to growth, while the positive impact of imports was ...

American Journal of Economics, 2016

This paper investigates the long-run relationship between exports and imports in 13 ECOWAS (Econo... more This paper investigates the long-run relationship between exports and imports in 13 ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States) countries during 1970-2015. Evidence points to cointegration of exports and imports in eight of the countries using the bounds testing approach to cointegration. The sign and significance of the error correction term estimates reinforce our evidence of cointegration. Estimates of long-run coefficient based on ARDL and two other long-run estimators; Fully Modified OLS (FMOLS), and the Dynamic OLS (DOLS) showed that Benin, Cape Verde, Cote d’Ivoire, Mali, and Nigeria satisfies the sufficient condition for sustainability of their current accounts over the long-run. Finally, CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests confirmed the stability of the estimated parameters. However, structural breaks in the relationship between exports and imports exist in Benin.

International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences, 2017

This paper examines the long-run relationship between exports and economic growth in Sub-Sahara A... more This paper examines the long-run relationship between exports and economic growth in Sub-Sahara Africa (SSA) to ascertain, if and how, exports drives economic growth through the productivity channel as opposed to volume contribution of exports to gross domestic product (GDP). We sampled seven SSA countries for the study including six of the most competitive countries in SSA by the Global Competitiveness Report ranking. Applying the panel analysis framework to a data set spanning 1987 to 2014, we found cointegration among non-exports GDP, gross capital formation, human capital, exports and imports. Estimates of the parameters of the cointegrating equation show a significant negative relationship between nonexports GDP and exports, suggesting that exports are productivity reducing in the long-run. However, there is a significant bidirectional causality between exports and economic growth. We conclude that, the dynamic effects of exports on growth through an economy-wide productivity increase are best achieved with the industrial sector as the leading exports sector.

Journal of economics and sustainable development, 2016

This paper examines the importance of the manufacturing sector for economic growth in African cou... more This paper examines the importance of the manufacturing sector for economic growth in African countries. Although many African countries have posted impressive growth performance in last one decade. A notable fact of this growth is the declining share of manufacturing in the gross domestic product (GDP). Will the contraction of the manufacturing sector hurt African economic growth in the long-run? We approach this question by testing Kaldor’s first law of economic growth using panel data for a sample of 28 African countries over the period 1981-2015. Results obtained from pooled Ordinary Least Squares, Fixed Effects, and System Generalized Method of Moments provides current evidence to support manufacturing as the engine of growth in Africa. The Fagerberg-Verspagen (1999) criteria show that despite the falling share of manufacturing in the GDP, the difference between the coefficient of manufacturing output growth and share of manufacturing in GDP is positive and significant. We conc...

Journal of Emerging Trends in Economics and Management Sciences, 2011

Entrepreneurship is essential for the sustenance of economic vitality in todayâ??s market economy... more Entrepreneurship is essential for the sustenance of economic vitality in todayâ??s market economy; and when a greater number of new businesses especially manufacturing enter the market, competition and economic growth are enhanced. We attempted to find a relationship between entrepreneurial activity and economic development on the one hand, and macro-economic reforms and entrepreneurial activity on the other hand, using data specific to Nigeria. Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and correlation analysis were used. Our results show that increase in manufacturing firm entry would impact positively on GDP and that some past policies have given rise to increased entrepreneurial participation in Nigeria. We conclude that greater entrepreneurial activity generally means greater economic growth and that policy reforms targeted at economic revival should not choke entrepreneurship and capacity utilization.

Caleb Journal of Social and Management Sciences

This paper investigates the long-run and causal relationships of technology spillovers on manufac... more This paper investigates the long-run and causal relationships of technology spillovers on manufacturing performance in Nigeria using the share of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in gross fixed capital formation as a proxy for technology transfer for the period 1981 to 2019 in a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The FDI stock appears to be too low at less than 1% of capital formation to generate any significant positive spillovers on manufacturing performance, resulting in an insignificant negative long-run relationship and the absence of causal relationships. The size of the local market has the most significant positive long-run effect on manufacturing performance, and the causality for this effect is one-way from manufacturing. A one-way causality was also observed from manufacturing to income per capital, though the long-run effect was significantly negative. The paper concluded that FDI technology spillover is presently not a major factor in Nigeria’s manufacturing performan...

Asian Development Policy Review

The long-run equilibrating relationship between the value-added growth of services and manufactur... more The long-run equilibrating relationship between the value-added growth of services and manufacturing is investigated in this research. The study is based on the well-established empirical link between manufacturing and service activities, and in particular, manufacturing's servicification. The selected variables' annualized time series were obtained from the World Development Indicators. The paper used the autoregressive distributed lag framework to regress manufacturing value-added growth against service value-added growth while accounting for economic growth, factor input growth, and trade effects. The findings revealed that in Nigeria, a strong performing services sector has a large negative impact on manufacturing performance, whereas capital accumulation and income growth have positive effects. The supply constraint of business services that the manufacturing sector requires is at the root of this finding. The paper advocates for policy frameworks that support the effic...

Journal of Economics and Business

Nigeria has been best with the incidence of concurrent unemployment and a good run of economic gr... more Nigeria has been best with the incidence of concurrent unemployment and a good run of economic growth thus calling to question the efficacy of economic growth to create jobs in the country. In this paper, we examine first whether there exists any relationship between economic growth and employment in the manner espoused by Okun’s law and then interpret the coefficient of the relationship as indicative of the capacity of the economy to translate growth into employment. Due to the unreliability of unemployment data in many developing countries we use the growth rate of employment as the dependent variable and thus expect to find a positive relationship with economic growth. A second model was specified with the growth rate of employment-to-population ratio as the dependent variable. Data were extracted from World Development Indicators and Penn’s World Table for 1961 to 2017. All the variables were level stationary from two different tests of their statistical properties. We thus esti...

Caleb Journal of Social and Management Science

Journal of Economics and Development Studies, 2015

This paper examines the competitiveness of Nigeria as a resource-driven economy relative to four ... more This paper examines the competitiveness of Nigeria as a resource-driven economy relative to four selected emerging market economies in Africa and Asia that has witnessed transition from the basic level of economic development. The central objective of the paper is to comparatively determine the strengths and weaknesses impacting Nigeria's competitiveness at each stages of economic development, using the Global Competitiveness Report's three stages of development and the competitiveness pillars characteristics of each stage as the basis of analysis. While Nigeria remain a resource-driven economy, its performance in the efficiency enhancers, and the more complex innovation and sophistication factors were found to be good for an efficiency-driven economy. Nigeria's abysmally low and deteriorating performance in the basic requirements remain its strongest challenge for competitiveness and long term growth.