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Papers by Oscar van Vliet
Energies
Medium and heavy-duty battery electric trucks (BETs) may play a key role in mitigating greenhouse... more Medium and heavy-duty battery electric trucks (BETs) may play a key role in mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from road freight transport. However, technological challenges such as limited range and cargo carrying capacity as well as the required charging time need to be efficiently addressed before the large-scale adoption of BETs. In this study, we apply a geospatial data analysis approach by using a battery electric vehicle potential (BEVPO) model with the datasets of road freight transport surveys for analyzing the potential of large-scale BET adoption in Finland and Switzerland for trucks with gross vehicle weight (GVW) of over 3.5 t. Our results show that trucks with payload capacities up to 30 t have the most potential for electrification by relying on the currently available battery and plug-in charging technology, with 93% (55% tkm) and 89% (84% tkm) trip coverage in Finland and Switzerland, respectively. Electric road systems (ERSs) would be essential for covering ...
Afforestation is considered an important option for mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. Recen... more Afforestation is considered an important option for mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. Recently, plantation projects have been suggested for inclusion under the Clean Development Mechanism. While considered a cheap option, significant uncertainties make it difficult to determine the (net) carbon benefits and profitability of forestry projects. The current uncertainties about the regulatory framework of the CDM and the environmental and economic performance of plantation forestry could create uncertainties with respect to the additionality of such projects and thus their acceptance under the mechanism. Six plantation forestry projects that were proposed in Brazil have been used as cases to study sources of uncertainty for carbon benefits and economics for such projects. These cases vary widely in terms of productivity and products delivered. A quantitative model for calculating greenhouse gas balances and financial benefits and costs, taking a broad range of variables into account, was developed. Data from the developers of the proposed projects was used as main source material. Subsequently, scenario's were evaluated, containing different and realistic options for baseline vegetation, carbon crediting systems and CDM modalities, fluctuations in product prices, discount rates and carbon prices. The real cost of combined carbon sequestration and substitution for the case projects was below $3 per ton of carbon avoided, when based exclusively on data supplied by project developers. However, potential variations in carbon impact and costs based on scenario options were very large. Different baseline vegetation or adopting a different discount rate cause carbon credits to vary by as much as an order of magnitude. Different carbon crediting systems or fluctuations in (commodity) product prices cause variations up to 200% in carbon credits and NPV. This makes the additionality of such projects difficult to determine. Five of the six case projects seem uneligible for development under the CDM. A critical attitude towards the use of plantation projects under the CDM seems justified. Everything expressed herein is the sole responsibility of the author(s) and does not necessarily reflect the positions of
Energy Research & Social Science
Scientific Data
Car parking is of central importance to congestion on roads and the urban planning process of opt... more Car parking is of central importance to congestion on roads and the urban planning process of optimizing road networks, pricing parking lots and planning land use. The efficient placement, sizing and grid connection of charging stations for electric cars makes it even more important to know the spatio-temporal distribution of car parking densities on the scale of entire cities. Here, we generate car parking density maps using travel time measurements only. We formulate a Hidden Markov Model that contains non-linear functional relationships between the changing average travel times among the zones of a city and both the traffic activity and flow direction probabilities of cars. We then sample the traffic flow for 1,000 cars per city zone for each city from these probability distributions and normalize the resulting spatial parking distribution of cars in each time step. Our results cover the years 2015-2018 for 34 cities worldwide. We validate the model for Melbourne and reach about 90% accuracy for parking densities and over 93% for circadian rhythms of traffic activity.
Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice
Energy Policy
Energy transition towards a sustainable system comprising various energy sources is a major chall... more Energy transition towards a sustainable system comprising various energy sources is a major challenge. We conducted a representative survey in the German-speaking part of Switzerland to elicit the population's preferences for electricity from solar, wind or natural gas under different institutional and site-specific conditions. Based on a choice experiment we found a consistent preference for electricity based on solar energy and-to a lesser degree-wind energy, built in existing industrial and commercial areas. We identified five distinct population groups, three of which have a very pronounced profile concerning energy attributes: 'Pro Renewables', 'Pro Switzerland', and 'Pro Landscape'. The largest two groups, 'Moderates' and 'Contra Status Quo' value attributes fairly equally. All groups except Pro Landscape prefer electricity from Switzerland, and all groups except Pro Switzerland accept imports of renewable electricity, preferably from plants operated by Swiss firms. We suggest that unfamiliarity rather than nationalism is at the root of opposition to imports of renewables. An energy mix focusing on renewables and including border-crossing electricity infrastructure could pave the way for a cost-efficient energy transition towards a sustainable and resilient electricity system. Our results show that it would also be publicly acceptable by the majority of the Swiss population.
Energy Research & Social Science
Sustainability
This paper introduces a method to analyse and explore consistency within policy mixes in order to... more This paper introduces a method to analyse and explore consistency within policy mixes in order to support the policymaking cycle and applies it to energy and climate change policies in the United Kingdom (UK) biofuels policy context. The first part of the paper introduces a multi-level method to evaluate consistency within policy mixes implemented over a period of time. The first level explores consistency across policy design features in policy mixes. The second level evaluates how stakeholders, and their interactions with policy instruments and each other, can impact consistency within a given context. These interactions influence the implementation of policies and can lead to unintended outcomes that fail to meet the overarching goals. In the second part of the paper, we apply our method to the UK biofuels policy mix, to explore a sector that cuts across the policy areas of transportation, energy, land-use, air, and climate change. Our analysis demonstrates how, by overlooking complex interactions in the design and implementation of policies in the biofuels sector, policy mixes have conflicted with the development of a potential low-carbon technology.
Applied Energy
• Methodology for international comparison of truck electrification potential developed. • Electr... more • Methodology for international comparison of truck electrification potential developed. • Electric trucks may cover 71% of tonne-kilometers in Switzerland, but 38% in Finland. • Electrification potential varies considerably between commodities. • Electric trucks increase annual electricity consumption by only 1-3%. • Electric trucks have large impact on local grids near charging stations.
Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment
Global Environmental Change, 2016
The sufficient supply of food and energy requires large amounts of fresh water. Mainly required f... more The sufficient supply of food and energy requires large amounts of fresh water. Mainly required for irrigation, but also processing and cooling purposes, water is one of the essential resources in both sectors. Rising global population numbers and economic development could likely cause an increase in natural resource demand over the coming decades, while at the same time climate change might lead to lower overall water availability. The result could be an increased competition for water resources mainly in water-stressed regions of the world in the future. In this study we explore a set of possible changes in consumption patterns in the agricultural and energy sector that could be primarily motivated by other goals than water conservation measures-for example personal health and climate change mitigation targets, and estimate the indirect effect such trends would have on global water requirements until 2050. Looking at five world regions, we investigated three possible changes regarding future food preferences, and two possible changes in future resource preferences for electricity and transport fuels. We find that while an increase in food supply as a result of higher protein demand would lead to an increase in water demand as well, this trend could be counteracted by other potential dietary shifts such as a reduction in grains and sugars. In the energy sector we find that an increasing water demand can be limited through specific resource and technology choices, while a significant growth of first-generation biofuels would lead to a drastic rise in water demand, potentially exceeding the water requirements for food supply. Looking at the two sectors together, we conclude that an overall increase in water demand for both food and energy is not inevitable and that changes in food and energy preferences could indeed lead to an alleviation of water resource use despite rising population numbers.
Energy Procedia, 2015
This paper evaluates the feasibility of future electricity scenarios drawn in the Swiss Energy St... more This paper evaluates the feasibility of future electricity scenarios drawn in the Swiss Energy Strategy 2050. These scenarios are characterized by a nuclear phase-out and high shares of renewables. We use Calliope, a linear programming model, special to model transition to renewables. Results show that it will be impossible to cover future demand only with domestic production, even if Switzerland reduces the consumption as envisaged. The daily profile of solar and limited capacity of wind lead to scenarios with maximum generation during peak hours. Moreover, we find a need to rearrange generation by flexible technologies to cover future demand.
JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 2015
ABSTRACT Good information and data on water demands are needed to perform good analyses, yet coll... more ABSTRACT Good information and data on water demands are needed to perform good analyses, yet collecting and compiling spatially and temporally consistent water demand data are challenges. The objective of our work was to understand the limitations associated with water-use estimates and projections. We performed a comprehensive literature review of national and regional United States (U.S.) water-use estimates and projections. We explored trends in past regional projections of freshwater withdrawals and compared these values to regional estimates of freshwater withdrawals made by the U.S. Geological Survey. Our results suggest a suite of limitations exist that have the potential for influencing analyses aiming to extract explanatory variables from the data or using the data to make projections and forecasts. As we explored regional projections, we paid special attention to the two largest water demand-side sectors — thermoelectric energy and irrigation — and found thermoelectric projections are more spread out than irrigation projections. All data related to water use have limitations, and there is no alternative to making the best use that we can of the available data; our article provides a comprehensive review of these limitations so that water managers can be more informed.
We developed a multi-agent model to simulate the transition from diesel and petrol from crude oil... more We developed a multi-agent model to simulate the transition from diesel and petrol from crude oil to alternative fuels like biodiesel, ethanol and GTL. We used techno-economic data to parameterise 13 fuel production pathways and survey data to parameterise 11 subpopulations of agents that select fuels on the basis of cost, environmental impact, effects on vehicle performance and popularity. Our results show that consumer heterogeneity is very important, and that interventions other than reducing the price of alternative fuels can lead to market penetration through niche markets. However, this only works if the alternatives are priced similar to mainstream fuels.
Energies
Medium and heavy-duty battery electric trucks (BETs) may play a key role in mitigating greenhouse... more Medium and heavy-duty battery electric trucks (BETs) may play a key role in mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from road freight transport. However, technological challenges such as limited range and cargo carrying capacity as well as the required charging time need to be efficiently addressed before the large-scale adoption of BETs. In this study, we apply a geospatial data analysis approach by using a battery electric vehicle potential (BEVPO) model with the datasets of road freight transport surveys for analyzing the potential of large-scale BET adoption in Finland and Switzerland for trucks with gross vehicle weight (GVW) of over 3.5 t. Our results show that trucks with payload capacities up to 30 t have the most potential for electrification by relying on the currently available battery and plug-in charging technology, with 93% (55% tkm) and 89% (84% tkm) trip coverage in Finland and Switzerland, respectively. Electric road systems (ERSs) would be essential for covering ...
Afforestation is considered an important option for mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. Recen... more Afforestation is considered an important option for mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. Recently, plantation projects have been suggested for inclusion under the Clean Development Mechanism. While considered a cheap option, significant uncertainties make it difficult to determine the (net) carbon benefits and profitability of forestry projects. The current uncertainties about the regulatory framework of the CDM and the environmental and economic performance of plantation forestry could create uncertainties with respect to the additionality of such projects and thus their acceptance under the mechanism. Six plantation forestry projects that were proposed in Brazil have been used as cases to study sources of uncertainty for carbon benefits and economics for such projects. These cases vary widely in terms of productivity and products delivered. A quantitative model for calculating greenhouse gas balances and financial benefits and costs, taking a broad range of variables into account, was developed. Data from the developers of the proposed projects was used as main source material. Subsequently, scenario's were evaluated, containing different and realistic options for baseline vegetation, carbon crediting systems and CDM modalities, fluctuations in product prices, discount rates and carbon prices. The real cost of combined carbon sequestration and substitution for the case projects was below $3 per ton of carbon avoided, when based exclusively on data supplied by project developers. However, potential variations in carbon impact and costs based on scenario options were very large. Different baseline vegetation or adopting a different discount rate cause carbon credits to vary by as much as an order of magnitude. Different carbon crediting systems or fluctuations in (commodity) product prices cause variations up to 200% in carbon credits and NPV. This makes the additionality of such projects difficult to determine. Five of the six case projects seem uneligible for development under the CDM. A critical attitude towards the use of plantation projects under the CDM seems justified. Everything expressed herein is the sole responsibility of the author(s) and does not necessarily reflect the positions of
Energy Research & Social Science
Scientific Data
Car parking is of central importance to congestion on roads and the urban planning process of opt... more Car parking is of central importance to congestion on roads and the urban planning process of optimizing road networks, pricing parking lots and planning land use. The efficient placement, sizing and grid connection of charging stations for electric cars makes it even more important to know the spatio-temporal distribution of car parking densities on the scale of entire cities. Here, we generate car parking density maps using travel time measurements only. We formulate a Hidden Markov Model that contains non-linear functional relationships between the changing average travel times among the zones of a city and both the traffic activity and flow direction probabilities of cars. We then sample the traffic flow for 1,000 cars per city zone for each city from these probability distributions and normalize the resulting spatial parking distribution of cars in each time step. Our results cover the years 2015-2018 for 34 cities worldwide. We validate the model for Melbourne and reach about 90% accuracy for parking densities and over 93% for circadian rhythms of traffic activity.
Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice
Energy Policy
Energy transition towards a sustainable system comprising various energy sources is a major chall... more Energy transition towards a sustainable system comprising various energy sources is a major challenge. We conducted a representative survey in the German-speaking part of Switzerland to elicit the population's preferences for electricity from solar, wind or natural gas under different institutional and site-specific conditions. Based on a choice experiment we found a consistent preference for electricity based on solar energy and-to a lesser degree-wind energy, built in existing industrial and commercial areas. We identified five distinct population groups, three of which have a very pronounced profile concerning energy attributes: 'Pro Renewables', 'Pro Switzerland', and 'Pro Landscape'. The largest two groups, 'Moderates' and 'Contra Status Quo' value attributes fairly equally. All groups except Pro Landscape prefer electricity from Switzerland, and all groups except Pro Switzerland accept imports of renewable electricity, preferably from plants operated by Swiss firms. We suggest that unfamiliarity rather than nationalism is at the root of opposition to imports of renewables. An energy mix focusing on renewables and including border-crossing electricity infrastructure could pave the way for a cost-efficient energy transition towards a sustainable and resilient electricity system. Our results show that it would also be publicly acceptable by the majority of the Swiss population.
Energy Research & Social Science
Sustainability
This paper introduces a method to analyse and explore consistency within policy mixes in order to... more This paper introduces a method to analyse and explore consistency within policy mixes in order to support the policymaking cycle and applies it to energy and climate change policies in the United Kingdom (UK) biofuels policy context. The first part of the paper introduces a multi-level method to evaluate consistency within policy mixes implemented over a period of time. The first level explores consistency across policy design features in policy mixes. The second level evaluates how stakeholders, and their interactions with policy instruments and each other, can impact consistency within a given context. These interactions influence the implementation of policies and can lead to unintended outcomes that fail to meet the overarching goals. In the second part of the paper, we apply our method to the UK biofuels policy mix, to explore a sector that cuts across the policy areas of transportation, energy, land-use, air, and climate change. Our analysis demonstrates how, by overlooking complex interactions in the design and implementation of policies in the biofuels sector, policy mixes have conflicted with the development of a potential low-carbon technology.
Applied Energy
• Methodology for international comparison of truck electrification potential developed. • Electr... more • Methodology for international comparison of truck electrification potential developed. • Electric trucks may cover 71% of tonne-kilometers in Switzerland, but 38% in Finland. • Electrification potential varies considerably between commodities. • Electric trucks increase annual electricity consumption by only 1-3%. • Electric trucks have large impact on local grids near charging stations.
Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment
Global Environmental Change, 2016
The sufficient supply of food and energy requires large amounts of fresh water. Mainly required f... more The sufficient supply of food and energy requires large amounts of fresh water. Mainly required for irrigation, but also processing and cooling purposes, water is one of the essential resources in both sectors. Rising global population numbers and economic development could likely cause an increase in natural resource demand over the coming decades, while at the same time climate change might lead to lower overall water availability. The result could be an increased competition for water resources mainly in water-stressed regions of the world in the future. In this study we explore a set of possible changes in consumption patterns in the agricultural and energy sector that could be primarily motivated by other goals than water conservation measures-for example personal health and climate change mitigation targets, and estimate the indirect effect such trends would have on global water requirements until 2050. Looking at five world regions, we investigated three possible changes regarding future food preferences, and two possible changes in future resource preferences for electricity and transport fuels. We find that while an increase in food supply as a result of higher protein demand would lead to an increase in water demand as well, this trend could be counteracted by other potential dietary shifts such as a reduction in grains and sugars. In the energy sector we find that an increasing water demand can be limited through specific resource and technology choices, while a significant growth of first-generation biofuels would lead to a drastic rise in water demand, potentially exceeding the water requirements for food supply. Looking at the two sectors together, we conclude that an overall increase in water demand for both food and energy is not inevitable and that changes in food and energy preferences could indeed lead to an alleviation of water resource use despite rising population numbers.
Energy Procedia, 2015
This paper evaluates the feasibility of future electricity scenarios drawn in the Swiss Energy St... more This paper evaluates the feasibility of future electricity scenarios drawn in the Swiss Energy Strategy 2050. These scenarios are characterized by a nuclear phase-out and high shares of renewables. We use Calliope, a linear programming model, special to model transition to renewables. Results show that it will be impossible to cover future demand only with domestic production, even if Switzerland reduces the consumption as envisaged. The daily profile of solar and limited capacity of wind lead to scenarios with maximum generation during peak hours. Moreover, we find a need to rearrange generation by flexible technologies to cover future demand.
JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 2015
ABSTRACT Good information and data on water demands are needed to perform good analyses, yet coll... more ABSTRACT Good information and data on water demands are needed to perform good analyses, yet collecting and compiling spatially and temporally consistent water demand data are challenges. The objective of our work was to understand the limitations associated with water-use estimates and projections. We performed a comprehensive literature review of national and regional United States (U.S.) water-use estimates and projections. We explored trends in past regional projections of freshwater withdrawals and compared these values to regional estimates of freshwater withdrawals made by the U.S. Geological Survey. Our results suggest a suite of limitations exist that have the potential for influencing analyses aiming to extract explanatory variables from the data or using the data to make projections and forecasts. As we explored regional projections, we paid special attention to the two largest water demand-side sectors — thermoelectric energy and irrigation — and found thermoelectric projections are more spread out than irrigation projections. All data related to water use have limitations, and there is no alternative to making the best use that we can of the available data; our article provides a comprehensive review of these limitations so that water managers can be more informed.
We developed a multi-agent model to simulate the transition from diesel and petrol from crude oil... more We developed a multi-agent model to simulate the transition from diesel and petrol from crude oil to alternative fuels like biodiesel, ethanol and GTL. We used techno-economic data to parameterise 13 fuel production pathways and survey data to parameterise 11 subpopulations of agents that select fuels on the basis of cost, environmental impact, effects on vehicle performance and popularity. Our results show that consumer heterogeneity is very important, and that interventions other than reducing the price of alternative fuels can lead to market penetration through niche markets. However, this only works if the alternatives are priced similar to mainstream fuels.