Paul Gilbert - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by Paul Gilbert
Numerical models of two wind power technologies for shipping, a Flettner rotor and a towing kite,... more Numerical models of two wind power technologies for shipping, a Flettner rotor and a towing kite, are presented. The methodology combines technology models and wind data along important trade routes. Wind power holds the potential for a step change reduction in shipping emissions.
This report, commissioned by The Co-operative, provides a provisional review and assessment of th... more This report, commissioned by The Co-operative, provides a provisional review and assessment of the risks and benefits of shale gas development, with the aim of informing The Co-operative’s position on this ‘unconventional’ fuel source.
The analysis within the report addresses two specific issues associated with the extraction and combustion of shale gas. Firstly, it outlines potential UK and global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions arising from a range of scenarios building on current predictions of shale gas resources. Secondly, it explores the health and environmental risks associated with shale gas extraction. It should be stressed that a key issue in assessing these issues has been a paucity of reliable data. To date shale gas has only been exploited in the US and, while initial estimates have been made, it is difficult to quantify the possible resources in other parts of the globe, including the UK. Equally, information on health and environmental aspects is of variable quality and only now is there any systematic effort being undertaken to better understand these issues. Therefore, while every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information in the report, it can only be as accurate as the information on which it draws.
It is clear however, that while shale gas extraction, at a global level, does not involve the high energy and water inputs at the scale of other unconventional fuels, such as oil derived from tar sands, it does pose significant potential risks to human health and the environment. Principally, the potential for hazardous chemicals to enter groundwater via the extraction process must be subject to more thorough research prior to any expansion of the industry being considered. Additionally, while being promoted as a transition route to a low carbon future, none of the available evidence indicates that this is likely to be the case. It is difficult to envisage any situation other than shale gas largely being used in addition to other fossil fuel reserves and adding a further carbon burden. This could lead to an additional 11ppmv of CO2 over and above expected levels without shale gas – a figure that could rise if more of the total shale gas resource were to be exploited than envisaged in the scenarios. This would be compounded if investment in shale gas were to delay the necessary investment in zero and very low carbon technologies.
Interface focus, Jan 6, 2013
This paper describes a framework that can be used to evaluate the environmental risks and benefit... more This paper describes a framework that can be used to evaluate the environmental risks and benefits associated with biofuel production. It uses the example of biodiesel produced from Argentinean soy to show how such a framework can be used to conceptualize trade-offs between different environmental, social and economic impacts of biofuel production. Results showing the greenhouse-gas savings and overall life-cycle impact of different 'soy-biodiesel' production methods are presented. These impacts and the significance of uncertainty in overall assessments of key parameters, such as greenhouse-gas savings, are discussed. It is shown that, even where sufficient knowledge exists to be able to quantify these impacts, the sustainability of supply of a particular biofuel is inextricably linked to values and ethical judgements. However, tailoring certification efforts to the issues that are most likely to make a significant difference to the overall sustainability could improve the e...
Progress toward decarbonizing shipping has been slow compared with other sectors. To explore the ... more Progress toward decarbonizing shipping has been slow compared with other sectors. To explore the scope for an urgent step-change cut in CO2, this paper presents results from a participatory technology roadmapping exercise. Results: Combining existing incremental and novel technologies with slow-steaming can deliver reductions in CO2 of over 50% even in the short term for existing ships. However, roadmaps for three vessel types illustrate barriers to change including the sector's complexity, infrastructure lock-in and a need for tailored market and vessel-specific roadmaps to support decision-making. Conclusions: Through technology and engineering, the outlook for the shipping sector to significantly cut its CO2 emissions, even in the short term, is promising. Nevertheless, the scale of change requires support to demonstrate how the long-term low-carbon vision offers enough benefit to overcome necessary short-term investment.
Numerical models of two wind power technologies for shipping, a Flettner rotor and a towing kite,... more Numerical models of two wind power technologies for shipping, a Flettner rotor and a towing kite, are presented. The methodology combines technology models and wind data along important trade routes. Wind power holds the potential for a step change reduction in shipping emissions.
This report, commissioned by The Co-operative, provides a provisional review and assessment of th... more This report, commissioned by The Co-operative, provides a provisional review and assessment of the risks and benefits of shale gas development, with the aim of informing The Co-operative’s position on this ‘unconventional’ fuel source.
The analysis within the report addresses two specific issues associated with the extraction and combustion of shale gas. Firstly, it outlines potential UK and global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions arising from a range of scenarios building on current predictions of shale gas resources. Secondly, it explores the health and environmental risks associated with shale gas extraction. It should be stressed that a key issue in assessing these issues has been a paucity of reliable data. To date shale gas has only been exploited in the US and, while initial estimates have been made, it is difficult to quantify the possible resources in other parts of the globe, including the UK. Equally, information on health and environmental aspects is of variable quality and only now is there any systematic effort being undertaken to better understand these issues. Therefore, while every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information in the report, it can only be as accurate as the information on which it draws.
It is clear however, that while shale gas extraction, at a global level, does not involve the high energy and water inputs at the scale of other unconventional fuels, such as oil derived from tar sands, it does pose significant potential risks to human health and the environment. Principally, the potential for hazardous chemicals to enter groundwater via the extraction process must be subject to more thorough research prior to any expansion of the industry being considered. Additionally, while being promoted as a transition route to a low carbon future, none of the available evidence indicates that this is likely to be the case. It is difficult to envisage any situation other than shale gas largely being used in addition to other fossil fuel reserves and adding a further carbon burden. This could lead to an additional 11ppmv of CO2 over and above expected levels without shale gas – a figure that could rise if more of the total shale gas resource were to be exploited than envisaged in the scenarios. This would be compounded if investment in shale gas were to delay the necessary investment in zero and very low carbon technologies.
Interface focus, Jan 6, 2013
This paper describes a framework that can be used to evaluate the environmental risks and benefit... more This paper describes a framework that can be used to evaluate the environmental risks and benefits associated with biofuel production. It uses the example of biodiesel produced from Argentinean soy to show how such a framework can be used to conceptualize trade-offs between different environmental, social and economic impacts of biofuel production. Results showing the greenhouse-gas savings and overall life-cycle impact of different 'soy-biodiesel' production methods are presented. These impacts and the significance of uncertainty in overall assessments of key parameters, such as greenhouse-gas savings, are discussed. It is shown that, even where sufficient knowledge exists to be able to quantify these impacts, the sustainability of supply of a particular biofuel is inextricably linked to values and ethical judgements. However, tailoring certification efforts to the issues that are most likely to make a significant difference to the overall sustainability could improve the e...
Progress toward decarbonizing shipping has been slow compared with other sectors. To explore the ... more Progress toward decarbonizing shipping has been slow compared with other sectors. To explore the scope for an urgent step-change cut in CO2, this paper presents results from a participatory technology roadmapping exercise. Results: Combining existing incremental and novel technologies with slow-steaming can deliver reductions in CO2 of over 50% even in the short term for existing ships. However, roadmaps for three vessel types illustrate barriers to change including the sector's complexity, infrastructure lock-in and a need for tailored market and vessel-specific roadmaps to support decision-making. Conclusions: Through technology and engineering, the outlook for the shipping sector to significantly cut its CO2 emissions, even in the short term, is promising. Nevertheless, the scale of change requires support to demonstrate how the long-term low-carbon vision offers enough benefit to overcome necessary short-term investment.