Paul Goodwin - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by Paul Goodwin
Decision Support Systems, 2006
Forecasts play a key role in the management of the supply chain. In most organisations such forec... more Forecasts play a key role in the management of the supply chain. In most organisations such forecasts form part of an information system on which other functions such as scheduling, resource planning and marketing depend. Forecast accuracy is, therefore, an important component in the delivery of an effective supply chain. Typically, the forecasts are produced by integrating managerial judgment with quantitative forecasts within a forecasting support system (FSS). However, there is much evidence that this integration is often carried out poorly with deleterious effects on accuracy. This study considers the role that a well-designed FSS might have in improving this situation. It integrates the literatures on forecasting and decision support to explain the causes of the problem and to identify design features of FSSs that might help to ameliorate it. An assessment is made of the extent to which currently available business forecasting packages, which are widely employed in supply chain management, possess these features.
Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 2019
European Journal of Operational Research, 2019
When providing best-case and worst-case scenarios can be detrimental to judgmental demand forecas... more When providing best-case and worst-case scenarios can be detrimental to judgmental demand forecasts and production decisions.
International Journal of Forecasting, 2018
Demand forecasting is critical to sales and operations planning (S&OP), but the effects of sales ... more Demand forecasting is critical to sales and operations planning (S&OP), but the effects of sales promotions can be difficult to forecast. Typically, a baseline statistical forecast is judgmentally adjusted on receipt of information from different departments. However, much of this information either has no predictive value or its value is unknown. Research into base rate discounting has suggested that such information may distract forecasters from the average uplift and reduce accuracy. This has been investigated in situations in which forecasters were able to adjust the statistical forecasts for promotions via a forecasting support system (FSS). In two ecologically valid experiments, forecasters were provided with the mean level of promotion uplift, a baseline statistical forecast, and quantitative and qualitative information. However, the forecasters were distracted from the base rate and misinterpreted the information available to them. These findings have important implications for the design of organizational S&OP processes, and for the implementation of FSSs.
International Journal of Forecasting, 2016
Today's technological development and global competition in markets, requires suppliers of produc... more Today's technological development and global competition in markets, requires suppliers of products and services to introduce new products or to improve their current products in order to survive. Fast technological development in the high tech sector also makes this global competition even harder for firms in today's market place, because technology advances have shortened the life cycle for many products. Demand forecasting is crucial for firms operating in this environment who need to make decisions relating to future production capacity, marketing budgets, human resource planning, and research and development. This is especially true of pre-launch forecasts of demand time series where products have a short life cycle. However, producing such forecasts is a difficult, complex and challenging task mainly because of the unavailability of past data and short life cycles of earlier products. This paper assesses the pros and cons of a range of new product forecasting methods where products have short life cycles. The potential effectiveness of methods such as individual and group management judgments, prediction and preference markets, intention surveys, diffusion models, conjoint analysis, market testing and agent based modelling, are evaluated in the context of the UK mobile phone industry. Areas where there is a need for future research are identified.
International Journal of Forecasting, 2006
The past 25 years has seen phenomenal growth of interest in judgemental approaches to forecasting... more The past 25 years has seen phenomenal growth of interest in judgemental approaches to forecasting and a significant change of attitude on the part of researchers to the role of judgement. While previously judgement was thought to be the enemy of accuracy, today judgement is recognised as an indispensable component of forecasting and much research attention has been directed at understanding and improving its use. Human judgement can be demonstrated to provide a significant benefit to forecasting accuracy but it can also be subject to many biases. Much of the research has been directed at understanding and managing these strengths and weaknesses. An indication of the explosion of research interest in this area can be gauged by the fact that over 200 studies are referenced in this review.
Oxford Handbooks Online, 2008
The successful introduction of new durable products is important in helping companies to stay ahe... more The successful introduction of new durable products is important in helping companies to stay ahead of their competitors. Decisions relating to these products can be improved by the availability of reliable pre-launch forecasts of their adoption time series. However, producing such forecasts is a difficult, complex and challenging task mainly because of non-availability of past time series data relating to the product and the multiple factors that can affect adoptions such as customer heterogeneity, macroeconomic conditions following the product launch and technological developments which may lead to the product's premature obsolescence. This paper critically reviews the literature to examine what it can tell us about the relative effectiveness of three fundamental approaches to filling the data void : i) management judgment, ii) analysis of judgments by potential customers and iii) formal models of the diffusion process. It then shows that the task of producing pre-launch timeseries forecasts of adoption levels involves a set of sub-tasks, which involve either quantitative estimation or choice, and argues that the different nature of these tasks means that forecasts are unlikely to be accurate if a single method is employed. Nevertheless, formal models, rather than unstructured judgment should be at the core of the forecasting process. Gaps in the literature are identified and the paper concludes by suggesting a research agenda to indicate where future research efforts might be most profitably employed.
Forecasting support systems (FSS's) have little value if users distrust the information and advic... more Forecasting support systems (FSS's) have little value if users distrust the information and advice that they offer. Two experiments were used to investigate: i) factors that influence the levels of users' stated trust in advice provided by an FSS, when this advice is provided in the form of interval forecasts, ii) the extent to which stated trust is associated with users' modification of the provided forecasts, and iii) the consequences of these modifications for the calibration of the interval forecasts. Stated trust was influenced by the levels of noise in time series and whether a trend was present but was unaffected by the presence or absence of point forecasts. It was also higher when the intervals were framed as 'bestcase/ worst-case' forecasts and when the FSS provided explanations. Absence of trust was associated with a tendency to narrow the provided prediction intervals which reduced their calibration.
Technological forecasting and social change, Mar 31, 2010
In this paper we review methods that aim to aid the anticipation of rare, high-impact, events. We... more In this paper we review methods that aim to aid the anticipation of rare, high-impact, events. We evaluate these methods according to their ability to yield well-calibrated probabilities or point forecasts for such events. We first identify six factors that can lead to poor calibration and then examine how successful the methods are in mitigating these factors. We demonstrate that all the extant forecasting methods—including the use of expert judgment, statistical forecasting, Delphi and prediction markets—contain fundamental weaknesses. ...
![Research paper thumbnail of International Marketing Forecasts (2002),: London: Euromonitor Books, 606 pages. ISBN 0 84264-152-2, Paperback, $1250, [UK pound]625, [euro;]1250](https://a.academia-assets.com/images/blank-paper.jpg)
](International Journal of Forecasting, 2003
International Journal of Forecasting, 2009
In this paper we review and analyse scenario planning as an aid to anticipation of the future und... more In this paper we review and analyse scenario planning as an aid to anticipation of the future under conditions of low predictability. We examine how successful the method is in mitigating issues to do with inappropriate framing, cognitive and motivational bias, and inappropriate attributions of causality. Although we demonstrate that the scenario methods contain weaknesses, we identify a potential for improvement. Four general principles that should help to enhance the role of scenario planning when predictability is low are discussed: (i) challenging mental frames, (ii) understanding human motivations, (iii) augmenting scenario planning through adopting the approach of crisis management, and (iv), assessing the flexibility, diversity, and insurability of strategic options in a structured option-against-scenario evaluation.
This article describes an exploratory investigation of the risk perceptions of experts and novice... more This article describes an exploratory investigation of the risk perceptions of experts and novices in relation to helicopter operations, under conditions where the participants are matched on various characteristics previously found to affect perceptions, such as demographic, gender, and background factors. The study reports considerable evidence of perceptual differences between the two participant groups (i.e., expert pilots and candidate pilots). We find that the experts' perceptions of relative risks are more veridical, in terms of their higher correlation with the true relative frequencies. A significant positive correlation between the flight hours and the contextual risk-taking tendency is also shown, leading the experienced pilots' choices toward risky alternatives in scenarios-a potential result of their overconfidence based on superior task performance. Possible explanations are offered for the findings and potential avenues for future research are identified.
European Journal of Operational …, 2009
In this paper, we engage with O"Brien"s (2004) identification of both pitfalls in teaching scenar... more In this paper, we engage with O"Brien"s (2004) identification of both pitfalls in teaching scenario planning and proposed remedies for these. We consider these remedies in relation to our own experience-based on our practice in both the academic and business arenas-and we highlight further pitfalls and proposed remedies. Finally, we propose the use of "hard" multi-attribute decision analysis as a complement to "soft" scenario planning, in order to allow a more formal method of strategy evaluation against a range of constructed scenarios, This approach is intended to remedy biases that are associated with holistic evaluations-such as lexicographic ranking-where undue attention is paid to particular strategic objectives at the expense of others. From this discussion, we seek to contribute to cumulative refinement of the scenario process.
Decision Support Systems, 2006
Forecasts play a key role in the management of the supply chain. In most organisations such forec... more Forecasts play a key role in the management of the supply chain. In most organisations such forecasts form part of an information system on which other functions such as scheduling, resource planning and marketing depend. Forecast accuracy is, therefore, an important component in the delivery of an effective supply chain. Typically, the forecasts are produced by integrating managerial judgment with quantitative forecasts within a forecasting support system (FSS). However, there is much evidence that this integration is often carried out poorly with deleterious effects on accuracy. This study considers the role that a well-designed FSS might have in improving this situation. It integrates the literatures on forecasting and decision support to explain the causes of the problem and to identify design features of FSSs that might help to ameliorate it. An assessment is made of the extent to which currently available business forecasting packages, which are widely employed in supply chain management, possess these features.
Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 2019
European Journal of Operational Research, 2019
When providing best-case and worst-case scenarios can be detrimental to judgmental demand forecas... more When providing best-case and worst-case scenarios can be detrimental to judgmental demand forecasts and production decisions.
International Journal of Forecasting, 2018
Demand forecasting is critical to sales and operations planning (S&OP), but the effects of sales ... more Demand forecasting is critical to sales and operations planning (S&OP), but the effects of sales promotions can be difficult to forecast. Typically, a baseline statistical forecast is judgmentally adjusted on receipt of information from different departments. However, much of this information either has no predictive value or its value is unknown. Research into base rate discounting has suggested that such information may distract forecasters from the average uplift and reduce accuracy. This has been investigated in situations in which forecasters were able to adjust the statistical forecasts for promotions via a forecasting support system (FSS). In two ecologically valid experiments, forecasters were provided with the mean level of promotion uplift, a baseline statistical forecast, and quantitative and qualitative information. However, the forecasters were distracted from the base rate and misinterpreted the information available to them. These findings have important implications for the design of organizational S&OP processes, and for the implementation of FSSs.
International Journal of Forecasting, 2016
Today's technological development and global competition in markets, requires suppliers of produc... more Today's technological development and global competition in markets, requires suppliers of products and services to introduce new products or to improve their current products in order to survive. Fast technological development in the high tech sector also makes this global competition even harder for firms in today's market place, because technology advances have shortened the life cycle for many products. Demand forecasting is crucial for firms operating in this environment who need to make decisions relating to future production capacity, marketing budgets, human resource planning, and research and development. This is especially true of pre-launch forecasts of demand time series where products have a short life cycle. However, producing such forecasts is a difficult, complex and challenging task mainly because of the unavailability of past data and short life cycles of earlier products. This paper assesses the pros and cons of a range of new product forecasting methods where products have short life cycles. The potential effectiveness of methods such as individual and group management judgments, prediction and preference markets, intention surveys, diffusion models, conjoint analysis, market testing and agent based modelling, are evaluated in the context of the UK mobile phone industry. Areas where there is a need for future research are identified.
International Journal of Forecasting, 2006
The past 25 years has seen phenomenal growth of interest in judgemental approaches to forecasting... more The past 25 years has seen phenomenal growth of interest in judgemental approaches to forecasting and a significant change of attitude on the part of researchers to the role of judgement. While previously judgement was thought to be the enemy of accuracy, today judgement is recognised as an indispensable component of forecasting and much research attention has been directed at understanding and improving its use. Human judgement can be demonstrated to provide a significant benefit to forecasting accuracy but it can also be subject to many biases. Much of the research has been directed at understanding and managing these strengths and weaknesses. An indication of the explosion of research interest in this area can be gauged by the fact that over 200 studies are referenced in this review.
Oxford Handbooks Online, 2008
The successful introduction of new durable products is important in helping companies to stay ahe... more The successful introduction of new durable products is important in helping companies to stay ahead of their competitors. Decisions relating to these products can be improved by the availability of reliable pre-launch forecasts of their adoption time series. However, producing such forecasts is a difficult, complex and challenging task mainly because of non-availability of past time series data relating to the product and the multiple factors that can affect adoptions such as customer heterogeneity, macroeconomic conditions following the product launch and technological developments which may lead to the product's premature obsolescence. This paper critically reviews the literature to examine what it can tell us about the relative effectiveness of three fundamental approaches to filling the data void : i) management judgment, ii) analysis of judgments by potential customers and iii) formal models of the diffusion process. It then shows that the task of producing pre-launch timeseries forecasts of adoption levels involves a set of sub-tasks, which involve either quantitative estimation or choice, and argues that the different nature of these tasks means that forecasts are unlikely to be accurate if a single method is employed. Nevertheless, formal models, rather than unstructured judgment should be at the core of the forecasting process. Gaps in the literature are identified and the paper concludes by suggesting a research agenda to indicate where future research efforts might be most profitably employed.
Forecasting support systems (FSS's) have little value if users distrust the information and advic... more Forecasting support systems (FSS's) have little value if users distrust the information and advice that they offer. Two experiments were used to investigate: i) factors that influence the levels of users' stated trust in advice provided by an FSS, when this advice is provided in the form of interval forecasts, ii) the extent to which stated trust is associated with users' modification of the provided forecasts, and iii) the consequences of these modifications for the calibration of the interval forecasts. Stated trust was influenced by the levels of noise in time series and whether a trend was present but was unaffected by the presence or absence of point forecasts. It was also higher when the intervals were framed as 'bestcase/ worst-case' forecasts and when the FSS provided explanations. Absence of trust was associated with a tendency to narrow the provided prediction intervals which reduced their calibration.
Technological forecasting and social change, Mar 31, 2010
In this paper we review methods that aim to aid the anticipation of rare, high-impact, events. We... more In this paper we review methods that aim to aid the anticipation of rare, high-impact, events. We evaluate these methods according to their ability to yield well-calibrated probabilities or point forecasts for such events. We first identify six factors that can lead to poor calibration and then examine how successful the methods are in mitigating these factors. We demonstrate that all the extant forecasting methods—including the use of expert judgment, statistical forecasting, Delphi and prediction markets—contain fundamental weaknesses. ...
International Journal of Forecasting, 2003
International Journal of Forecasting, 2009
In this paper we review and analyse scenario planning as an aid to anticipation of the future und... more In this paper we review and analyse scenario planning as an aid to anticipation of the future under conditions of low predictability. We examine how successful the method is in mitigating issues to do with inappropriate framing, cognitive and motivational bias, and inappropriate attributions of causality. Although we demonstrate that the scenario methods contain weaknesses, we identify a potential for improvement. Four general principles that should help to enhance the role of scenario planning when predictability is low are discussed: (i) challenging mental frames, (ii) understanding human motivations, (iii) augmenting scenario planning through adopting the approach of crisis management, and (iv), assessing the flexibility, diversity, and insurability of strategic options in a structured option-against-scenario evaluation.
This article describes an exploratory investigation of the risk perceptions of experts and novice... more This article describes an exploratory investigation of the risk perceptions of experts and novices in relation to helicopter operations, under conditions where the participants are matched on various characteristics previously found to affect perceptions, such as demographic, gender, and background factors. The study reports considerable evidence of perceptual differences between the two participant groups (i.e., expert pilots and candidate pilots). We find that the experts' perceptions of relative risks are more veridical, in terms of their higher correlation with the true relative frequencies. A significant positive correlation between the flight hours and the contextual risk-taking tendency is also shown, leading the experienced pilots' choices toward risky alternatives in scenarios-a potential result of their overconfidence based on superior task performance. Possible explanations are offered for the findings and potential avenues for future research are identified.
European Journal of Operational …, 2009
In this paper, we engage with O"Brien"s (2004) identification of both pitfalls in teaching scenar... more In this paper, we engage with O"Brien"s (2004) identification of both pitfalls in teaching scenario planning and proposed remedies for these. We consider these remedies in relation to our own experience-based on our practice in both the academic and business arenas-and we highlight further pitfalls and proposed remedies. Finally, we propose the use of "hard" multi-attribute decision analysis as a complement to "soft" scenario planning, in order to allow a more formal method of strategy evaluation against a range of constructed scenarios, This approach is intended to remedy biases that are associated with holistic evaluations-such as lexicographic ranking-where undue attention is paid to particular strategic objectives at the expense of others. From this discussion, we seek to contribute to cumulative refinement of the scenario process.