Peter van Els - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by Peter van Els
De Nederlandsche Bank, 2002
The paper presents a guide to the theoretical properties of EUROMON, the Nederlandsche Bank'... more The paper presents a guide to the theoretical properties of EUROMON, the Nederlandsche Bank's multi-country model for implementing policy analysis. It is written with a view to expanding Chapter 2 of the Monetary Monograph 19, which provides for a model ...
Telephone +49 69 1344 0 Internet http://www.ecb.int Fax +49 69 1344 6000 Telex 411 144 ecb d All ... more Telephone +49 69 1344 0 Internet http://www.ecb.int Fax +49 69 1344 6000 Telex 411 144 ecb d All rights reserved. Reproduction for educational and non-commercial purposes is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged. Abstract This paper analyses the monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area through the use of large scale macroeconomic models at the disposal of the European Central Bank and the National Central Banks of the Eurosystem. The results reported are based on a carefully designed common simulation experiment involving a 100 basis point rise in the policy interest rate for two years accompanied by common assumptions regarding the path of long-term interest rates and the exchange rate. Aggregating the country level results, the fall in output is found to reach a maximum of 0.4% after 2 years. The maximum aggregate fall in prices is also 0.4%, but it occurs 2 years later. The dominant channel of transmission in the first two years is the exchange rate channel, but in terms of the impact on output, the user cost of capital channel becomes dominant from the third year of the simulation onwards. E C B • W o r k i n g P a p e r N o 9 4 • D e c e m b e r 2 0 0 1 4 This paper reports the results of a common monetary policy experiment that has been undertaken using large scale macroeconomic models at the disposal of the European Central Bank and the National Central Banks of the Eurosystem. The results reported are the fruit of co-operation within the Working Group on Econometric Modelling and are based on a carefully designed common simulation experiment. This involved a 100 basis point rise in the policy interest rate for two years accompanied by common assumptions regarding the path of long-term interest rates and the exchange rate.
The paper presents a guide to the theoretical properties of EUROMON, the Nederlandsche Bank's... more The paper presents a guide to the theoretical properties of EUROMON, the Nederlandsche Bank's multi-country model for implementing policy analysis. It is written with a view to expanding Chapter 2 of the Mone- tary Monograph 19, which provides for a model description. EUROMON is an aggregate neo-Keynsenian model where output is described in the long run by a vertical supply
Economist Netherlands, 2008
![Research paper thumbnail of De baten van een gemeenschappelijke Europese munt [The benefits of a common European currency]](https://attachments.academia-assets.com/48929262/thumbnails/1.jpg)
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Economist Netherlands, 2008
This study is an introduction to and summary of the 2002 Annual Meeting papers of the Royal Nethe... more This study is an introduction to and summary of the 2002 Annual Meeting papers of the Royal Netherlands Economic Association. The general theme of this year's Annual Meeting is `The role of wealth in the economy'. It is covered by 5 papers, which address the following topics: (i) household portfolio behaviour, (ii) the link between household savings and house prices,
This Occasional Study wraps up the modelling work that has been done in recent years regarding DN... more This Occasional Study wraps up the modelling work that has been done in recent years regarding DNB’s multi-country model EUROMON. It offers a description of the current version of the model and provides information about its simulation properties through the analysis of variety of standard scenarios. EUROMON is an estimated multi-country model. The current version includes 13 individual country models
This paper explores the importance of wealth effects for monetary policy in the context of the po... more This paper explores the importance of wealth effects for monetary policy in the context of the policy strategy of the European Central Bank (ECB). Causality tests indicate that nominal equity prices have predictive power for ECB policy indicators of real activity, while housing prices have predictive power for price indicators, and money and credit aggregates. This means that, at least
Although Europe is about to introduce a common monetary policy with one common European currency,... more Although Europe is about to introduce a common monetary policy with one common European currency, the euro, estimating the expected costs and income is not an easy task. This paper analyzes in-depth the benefits of the euro. The prospects are positive.
Costs and Benefits of Collective Pension Systems, 2007
ABSTRACT More than 90% of employees in the Netherlands compulsorily accrue pensions via their emp... more ABSTRACT More than 90% of employees in the Netherlands compulsorily accrue pensions via their employer. Experiences abroad, supplemented by empirical research among Dutch households, suggest that, without this automatism, large groups of employees would build up much less pension. Procrastination, self-control problems, and limited financial knowledge and skills frequently lead to low pension savings and low returns on the accrued pension capital. Mandatory retirement saving prevents these problems. The Dutch mandatory participation works well and there is no reason for drastic modifications. What can be studied, however, is how mandatory retirement saving for the self-employed can result in a better pension build-up.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
Although Europe is about to introduce a commom monetary policy with one common European currency,... more Although Europe is about to introduce a commom monetary policy with one common European currency, the euro, estimating the expected costs and income is not an easy task. This paper analyzes in-depth the benefits of the euro. The prospects are positive.
Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 1995
… Memorandum WO N, 2003
Pensions and public opinion: a survey among Dutch households P.J.A. van Els, W.A. van den End and... more Pensions and public opinion: a survey among Dutch households P.J.A. van Els, W.A. van den End and M.C.J. va n Rooij This paper reports on the findings of a survey among Dutch households (as part of the DNB Household Survey in 2003) about many aspects (expectations, concerns, attitude and preferences) of their pensions and the old-age-arrangements in the Netherlands. We explore whether the outcomes are related to specific financial and non-financial household or personal characteristics. A clear majority of the Dutch public expects public pension schemes to be retrenched and rejects reforms that infringe on what they regard as acquired rights. One would rather like to pay higher contributions until the age of 65. The divergence in preferences towards retrenchment measures across generations indicates that intergenerational risk sharing is not something natural. The public prefers to have their pension buildup managed by pension funds and would accept having to pay higher contributions in exchange for guaranteed benefits. Yet, a substantial minority advocates a greater freedom of choice. Surprisingly, this preference for freedom is not linked to particular household characteristics, nor does it reflect the particular interest of those who already have third pillar pension provisions. Many, however, are as yet not concerned about their pension rights, adopting a "we'll see about that when we come to that" attitude. This manifests itself in a substantial lack of knowledge about one's own personal pension arrangements, notably for young generations, women, low-skilled workers and people out of work. Key words: public pensions, second pillar pensions, household survey, risk attitude and preferences JEL codes: D12, J26, G23, H55 SAMENVATTING Pensioenen en publieke opinie: een enquête onder Nederlandse gezinnen P.J.A. van Els, W.A. van den End en M.C.J. van Rooij
De Economist, 1993
Summary Dynamic portfolio models have obtained a prominent place in the economic literature. As ... more Summary Dynamic portfolio models have obtained a prominent place in the economic literature. As a rule, the problem of implausible long-term coefficients is ignored. In particular the long-term interest rate parameters are not in accordance with the theory of gross substitution. This shortcoming is especially serious when such a portfolio model is used as part of a larger macroeconomic model. A
De Economist, 2006
This paper analysis the results of a survey on qualitative and quantitative perceptions and expec... more This paper analysis the results of a survey on qualitative and quantitative perceptions and expectations of past, current and future macroeconomic developments among a representative household panel (DNB Household Survey). Perceptions of economic growth and inflation show a large dispersion. For the median respondents, however, the quantitative perceptions were found to be quite accurate. There is some evidence that the concept of economic growth is a more abstract notion for the general public than inflation. The results on qualitative and quantitative perceptions of current inflation could be interpreted as the Dutch public having a high level of inflation aversion. Those who have declared themselves more knowledgeable are also more actively involved in dealing with financial issues. The empirical evidence seems to corroborate that individuals with higher self-assessed knowledge levels are better informed indeed and have more accurate quantitative perceptions of economic growth and inflation. The survey also provides further insights on the connection between perceptions of current and past economic developments on the one hand, and expectations of future developments on the other. At the individual level there is a strong and robust correlation between expected growth and inflation for the next year and the perceptions of the current situation (rule of thumb behavior). But short-term expectations are also influenced by the views individuals hold on longer-term developments. Moreover, the results confirm the observed persistence in annual macroeconomic growth and inflation figures.
De Nederlandsche Bank, 2002
The paper presents a guide to the theoretical properties of EUROMON, the Nederlandsche Bank'... more The paper presents a guide to the theoretical properties of EUROMON, the Nederlandsche Bank's multi-country model for implementing policy analysis. It is written with a view to expanding Chapter 2 of the Monetary Monograph 19, which provides for a model ...
Telephone +49 69 1344 0 Internet http://www.ecb.int Fax +49 69 1344 6000 Telex 411 144 ecb d All ... more Telephone +49 69 1344 0 Internet http://www.ecb.int Fax +49 69 1344 6000 Telex 411 144 ecb d All rights reserved. Reproduction for educational and non-commercial purposes is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged. Abstract This paper analyses the monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area through the use of large scale macroeconomic models at the disposal of the European Central Bank and the National Central Banks of the Eurosystem. The results reported are based on a carefully designed common simulation experiment involving a 100 basis point rise in the policy interest rate for two years accompanied by common assumptions regarding the path of long-term interest rates and the exchange rate. Aggregating the country level results, the fall in output is found to reach a maximum of 0.4% after 2 years. The maximum aggregate fall in prices is also 0.4%, but it occurs 2 years later. The dominant channel of transmission in the first two years is the exchange rate channel, but in terms of the impact on output, the user cost of capital channel becomes dominant from the third year of the simulation onwards. E C B • W o r k i n g P a p e r N o 9 4 • D e c e m b e r 2 0 0 1 4 This paper reports the results of a common monetary policy experiment that has been undertaken using large scale macroeconomic models at the disposal of the European Central Bank and the National Central Banks of the Eurosystem. The results reported are the fruit of co-operation within the Working Group on Econometric Modelling and are based on a carefully designed common simulation experiment. This involved a 100 basis point rise in the policy interest rate for two years accompanied by common assumptions regarding the path of long-term interest rates and the exchange rate.
The paper presents a guide to the theoretical properties of EUROMON, the Nederlandsche Bank's... more The paper presents a guide to the theoretical properties of EUROMON, the Nederlandsche Bank's multi-country model for implementing policy analysis. It is written with a view to expanding Chapter 2 of the Mone- tary Monograph 19, which provides for a model description. EUROMON is an aggregate neo-Keynsenian model where output is described in the long run by a vertical supply
Economist Netherlands, 2008
Economist Netherlands, 2008
This study is an introduction to and summary of the 2002 Annual Meeting papers of the Royal Nethe... more This study is an introduction to and summary of the 2002 Annual Meeting papers of the Royal Netherlands Economic Association. The general theme of this year's Annual Meeting is `The role of wealth in the economy'. It is covered by 5 papers, which address the following topics: (i) household portfolio behaviour, (ii) the link between household savings and house prices,
This Occasional Study wraps up the modelling work that has been done in recent years regarding DN... more This Occasional Study wraps up the modelling work that has been done in recent years regarding DNB’s multi-country model EUROMON. It offers a description of the current version of the model and provides information about its simulation properties through the analysis of variety of standard scenarios. EUROMON is an estimated multi-country model. The current version includes 13 individual country models
This paper explores the importance of wealth effects for monetary policy in the context of the po... more This paper explores the importance of wealth effects for monetary policy in the context of the policy strategy of the European Central Bank (ECB). Causality tests indicate that nominal equity prices have predictive power for ECB policy indicators of real activity, while housing prices have predictive power for price indicators, and money and credit aggregates. This means that, at least
Although Europe is about to introduce a common monetary policy with one common European currency,... more Although Europe is about to introduce a common monetary policy with one common European currency, the euro, estimating the expected costs and income is not an easy task. This paper analyzes in-depth the benefits of the euro. The prospects are positive.
Costs and Benefits of Collective Pension Systems, 2007
ABSTRACT More than 90% of employees in the Netherlands compulsorily accrue pensions via their emp... more ABSTRACT More than 90% of employees in the Netherlands compulsorily accrue pensions via their employer. Experiences abroad, supplemented by empirical research among Dutch households, suggest that, without this automatism, large groups of employees would build up much less pension. Procrastination, self-control problems, and limited financial knowledge and skills frequently lead to low pension savings and low returns on the accrued pension capital. Mandatory retirement saving prevents these problems. The Dutch mandatory participation works well and there is no reason for drastic modifications. What can be studied, however, is how mandatory retirement saving for the self-employed can result in a better pension build-up.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
Although Europe is about to introduce a commom monetary policy with one common European currency,... more Although Europe is about to introduce a commom monetary policy with one common European currency, the euro, estimating the expected costs and income is not an easy task. This paper analyzes in-depth the benefits of the euro. The prospects are positive.
Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 1995
… Memorandum WO N, 2003
Pensions and public opinion: a survey among Dutch households P.J.A. van Els, W.A. van den End and... more Pensions and public opinion: a survey among Dutch households P.J.A. van Els, W.A. van den End and M.C.J. va n Rooij This paper reports on the findings of a survey among Dutch households (as part of the DNB Household Survey in 2003) about many aspects (expectations, concerns, attitude and preferences) of their pensions and the old-age-arrangements in the Netherlands. We explore whether the outcomes are related to specific financial and non-financial household or personal characteristics. A clear majority of the Dutch public expects public pension schemes to be retrenched and rejects reforms that infringe on what they regard as acquired rights. One would rather like to pay higher contributions until the age of 65. The divergence in preferences towards retrenchment measures across generations indicates that intergenerational risk sharing is not something natural. The public prefers to have their pension buildup managed by pension funds and would accept having to pay higher contributions in exchange for guaranteed benefits. Yet, a substantial minority advocates a greater freedom of choice. Surprisingly, this preference for freedom is not linked to particular household characteristics, nor does it reflect the particular interest of those who already have third pillar pension provisions. Many, however, are as yet not concerned about their pension rights, adopting a "we'll see about that when we come to that" attitude. This manifests itself in a substantial lack of knowledge about one's own personal pension arrangements, notably for young generations, women, low-skilled workers and people out of work. Key words: public pensions, second pillar pensions, household survey, risk attitude and preferences JEL codes: D12, J26, G23, H55 SAMENVATTING Pensioenen en publieke opinie: een enquête onder Nederlandse gezinnen P.J.A. van Els, W.A. van den End en M.C.J. van Rooij
De Economist, 1993
Summary Dynamic portfolio models have obtained a prominent place in the economic literature. As ... more Summary Dynamic portfolio models have obtained a prominent place in the economic literature. As a rule, the problem of implausible long-term coefficients is ignored. In particular the long-term interest rate parameters are not in accordance with the theory of gross substitution. This shortcoming is especially serious when such a portfolio model is used as part of a larger macroeconomic model. A
De Economist, 2006
This paper analysis the results of a survey on qualitative and quantitative perceptions and expec... more This paper analysis the results of a survey on qualitative and quantitative perceptions and expectations of past, current and future macroeconomic developments among a representative household panel (DNB Household Survey). Perceptions of economic growth and inflation show a large dispersion. For the median respondents, however, the quantitative perceptions were found to be quite accurate. There is some evidence that the concept of economic growth is a more abstract notion for the general public than inflation. The results on qualitative and quantitative perceptions of current inflation could be interpreted as the Dutch public having a high level of inflation aversion. Those who have declared themselves more knowledgeable are also more actively involved in dealing with financial issues. The empirical evidence seems to corroborate that individuals with higher self-assessed knowledge levels are better informed indeed and have more accurate quantitative perceptions of economic growth and inflation. The survey also provides further insights on the connection between perceptions of current and past economic developments on the one hand, and expectations of future developments on the other. At the individual level there is a strong and robust correlation between expected growth and inflation for the next year and the perceptions of the current situation (rule of thumb behavior). But short-term expectations are also influenced by the views individuals hold on longer-term developments. Moreover, the results confirm the observed persistence in annual macroeconomic growth and inflation figures.