Petra Todd - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Petra Todd

... PRINCIPALES RESULTADOS Autor: David Bravo, Javiera Vásquez, Jere R. Behrman, Olivia S. Mitche... more ... PRINCIPALES RESULTADOS Autor: David Bravo, Javiera Vásquez, Jere R. Behrman, Olivia S. Mitchell y Petra E. Todd ... Principales Resultados David Bravo y Javiera Vásquez Universidad de Chile Jere R. Behrman, Olivia S. Mitchell y Petra E. Todd University of Pennsylvania ...

Annales D Economie Et De Statistique, 2008

This paper discusses methods for evaluating the impacts of social programs prior to their impleme... more This paper discusses methods for evaluating the impacts of social programs prior to their implementation. Ex ante evaluation is useful for designing programs that achieve some optimality criteria, such as maximizing impact for a given cost. This paper illustrates through several examples the use of behavioral models in predicting the impacts of hypothetical programs. Among the programs considered are wage subsidy programs, conditional cash transfer programs, and income support programs. In some cases, the behavioral model justifies a completely nonparametric estimation strategy, even when there is no direct variation in the policy instrument. In other cases, stronger modeling and/or functional form assumptions are required to evaluate a program ex ante. We illustrate the application of ex ante evaluation methods using data from the PROGRESA school subsidy experiment in Mexico. We assess the effectiveness of the method by comparing ex ante predictions of program impacts to the impacts measured under the randomized experiment.

Before and after comparisons (double-difference, DD) between treatment and control students/paren... more Before and after comparisons (double-difference, DD) between treatment and control students/parents with random assignment of treatment (randomized controlled trials, RCTs) is an approach with strong advocates, but not without difficulties regarding, for example, selective

Nber Working Papers, Oct 1, 1995

bLoAqcq JJt I1 CLC1 uCJnqu © UO11CC ! ACU O IJC OflICQ 2C!OIJ o cxi uo io ccccq iwo bnLbp wiA pc ... more bLoAqcq JJt I1 CLC1 uCJnqu © UO11CC ! ACU O IJC OflICQ 2C!OIJ o cxi uo io ccccq iwo bnLbp wiA pc dnoicq #pori cbJ!c bc!.w!!ou © Tô2 P 1UJ HCCJCUJU VIJUC i-JU bL joqq VII !4IJt2 L LACq 2POLt WPOIJfJ B'' O COUOUJIC IC2LCIJ bLoulw !u FPOL 2u'qi vu? obiuou cxbLccq tc 1po o qJc npoI. uq uo qoc o rpc 2C11001 O GOAGUJWCIU HUq DCUJPL J 4 JJJ bbcL bu o i.ccp

The Journal of Economic History, Jun 1, 2001

This paper examines how beliefs about own HIV status affect decisions to engage in risky sexual b... more This paper examines how beliefs about own HIV status affect decisions to engage in risky sexual behavior (as measured by extramarital affairs) and analyzes the potential for interventions that influence beliefs, such as HIV testing and informational campaigns, to reduce transmission rates. The empirical analysis is based on a panel survey of married males for years 2006 and 2008 from the Malawi Diffusion and Ideational Change Project (MDICP). In the data, beliefs about HIV status vary significantly geographically and over time, in part because of newly available testing opportunities and because of cultural differences. We estimate the effect of beliefs on risky behavior using Arellano and Carrasco's (2003) semiparametric panel data estimator, which accommodates unobserved heterogeneity and belief endogeneity. Results show that changes in the belief of being HIV positive induce changes in risky behavior. Downward revisions in beliefs increase risky behavior and upward revisions decrease it. We modify Arellano and Carrasco's (2003) estimator to allow for underreporting of extramarital affairs and find the estimates to be robust. Using the estimates and a prototypical epidemiological model of disease transmission, we show that better informing people about their HIV status on net reduces the population HIV transmission rate.

Education Policy in Developing Countries, 2013

Before and after comparisons (double-difference, DD) between treatment and control students/paren... more Before and after comparisons (double-difference, DD) between treatment and control students/parents with random assignment of treatment (randomized controlled trials, RCTs) is an approach with strong advocates, but not without difficulties regarding, for example, selective

Competition across money managers, along with market entry, in theory could ensure that capital m... more Competition across money managers, along with market entry, in theory could ensure that capital market remains competitive. But in Chile, which has had a privatized pension system for 25 years, high rates of switching between the funds and little downward movement on fees, have been interpreted as evidence of market inefficiency. This chapter uses a change in the regulatory rules governing the marketing of AFP pensions (Administradoras de Fondos de Pensiones) in Chile to investigate the empirical basis for sources of market frictions. We find that switching patterns are on a par with trading in US 401(k) accounts, and further, that switchers tend to be highly educated and relatively more highly paid. Switching is also more common among those with higher levels of financial literacy. The 1997 regulatory change appears to have reduced switching, particularly among the better educated.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000

Editor-in-Chief Isaac Ehrlich works with an editorial board of leading economists in developing t... more Editor-in-Chief Isaac Ehrlich works with an editorial board of leading economists in developing the JOURNAL OF HUMAN CAPITAL. This important new journal explores the role human capital plays in the production, ...

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000

This paper discusses the use of discrete choice dynamic programming (DCDP) methods for evaluating... more This paper discusses the use of discrete choice dynamic programming (DCDP) methods for evaluating policies of particular relevance to developing countries, such as policies to reduce child labor and increase school attendance, to improve school quality, to affect immigration flows, to expand old age pension benefits, or to foster small business investment through microfinance. We describe the DCDP framework and how it relates to static models, illustrate its application with an example related to conditional cash transfer programs, consider numerous empirical applications from the literature of how the DCDP methodology has been used to address subtantively important policy issues, and discuss methods for model validation.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000

This paper discusses methods for evaluating the impacts of social programs prior to their impleme... more This paper discusses methods for evaluating the impacts of social programs prior to their implementation. Ex ante evaluation is useful for designing programs that achieve some optimality criteria, such as maximizing impact for a given cost. This paper illustrates the use of behavioral models in predicting the impacts of hypothetical programs in a way that is not functional form dependent. Among the programs considered are wage subsidy programs, conditional cash transfer programs, and income support programs. In some cases, the behavioral model justifies a completely nonparametric estimation strategy, even when there is no direct variation in the policy instrument. In other cases, stronger assumptions are required to evaluate a program ex ante. We illustrate the application of ex ante evaluation methods using data from the PROGRESA school subsidy randomized experiment in Mexico. We assess the effectiveness of the ex ante prediction method by comparing predictions of program impacts to the impacts measured under the randomized experiment. The subsamples pertain to girls and boys aged 12-15. For the girls, the predicted impacts are fairly similar to the actual impacts, both in magnitude and in replicating the age patterns, with larger impacts observed at higher ages. For boys, the predicted impacts tend to overstate the actual impacts. The ex-ante evaluation method is also used to predict the effects of counterfactal programs that include changes to the subsidy schedule and an unconditional income transfer.

African-American motorists in the United States are much more likely than white motorists to have... more African-American motorists in the United States are much more likely than white motorists to have their cars searched by police checking for illegal drugs and other contraband. The courts are faced with the task of deciding on the basis of traffic-search data whether police behavior reflects a racial bias. We discuss why a simple test for racial bias commonly applied by the courts is inadequate and develop a model of law enforcement that suggests an alternative test.

The internal rate of return to schooling is a fundamental economic parameter that is often used t... more The internal rate of return to schooling is a fundamental economic parameter that is often used to assess whether expenditure on education should be increased or decreased. This paper considers alternative approaches to estimating marginal internal rates of return for different schooling levels. We implement a general nonparametric approach to estimate marginal internal rates of return that take into account tuition costs, income taxes and nonlinearities in the earnings-schooling-experience relationship. The returns obtained by the more general method differ substantially from Mincer returns in levels and in their evolution over time. They indicate relatively larger returns to graduating from high school than from graduating from college, although both have been increasing over time.

This Discussion Paper is issued within the framework of IZA's research area The Future of Labor. ... more This Discussion Paper is issued within the framework of IZA's research area The Future of Labor. Any opinions expressed here are those of the author(s) and not those of the institute. Research disseminated by IZA may include views on policy, but the institute itself takes no institutional policy positions.

The regression discontinuity (RD) data design is a quasi-experimental design with the defining ch... more The regression discontinuity (RD) data design is a quasi-experimental design with the defining characteristic that the probability of receiving treatment changes discontinuously as a function of one or more individual characteristics. This data design occasionally arises in economic and other applications but is only infrequently exploited in evaluating the effects of a treatment. We consider the problem of identification and estimation of treatment effects under a RD data design.

Handbook of Labor Economics, Vol 4a, 2011

ABSTRACT The purpose of this chapter is twofold: (1) to provide an accessible introduction to the... more ABSTRACT The purpose of this chapter is twofold: (1) to provide an accessible introduction to the methods of structural estimation of discrete choice dynamic programming (DCDP) models and (2) to survey the contributions of applications of these methods to substantive and policy issues in labor economics. The first part of the chapter describes solution and estimation methods for DCDP models using, for expository purposes, a prototypical female labor force participation model. The next part reviews the contribution of the DCDP approach to three leading areas in labor economics: labor supply, job search and human capital. The final section discusses approaches to validating DCDP models.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000

ABSTRACT This paper evaluates the impact of three different performance incentives schemes using ... more ABSTRACT This paper evaluates the impact of three different performance incentives schemes using data from a social experiment that randomized 88 Mexican high schools with over 40,000 students into three treatment groups and a control group. Treatment one provides individual incentives for performance on curriculum-based mathematics tests to students only, treatment two to teachers only and treatment three gives both individual and group incentives to students, teachers and school administrators. Program impact estimates reveal the largest average effects for treatment three, smaller impacts for treatment one and no impact for treatment two.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000

... PRINCIPALES RESULTADOS Autor: David Bravo, Javiera Vásquez, Jere R. Behrman, Olivia S. Mitche... more ... PRINCIPALES RESULTADOS Autor: David Bravo, Javiera Vásquez, Jere R. Behrman, Olivia S. Mitchell y Petra E. Todd ... Principales Resultados David Bravo y Javiera Vásquez Universidad de Chile Jere R. Behrman, Olivia S. Mitchell y Petra E. Todd University of Pennsylvania ...

Annales D Economie Et De Statistique, 2008

This paper discusses methods for evaluating the impacts of social programs prior to their impleme... more This paper discusses methods for evaluating the impacts of social programs prior to their implementation. Ex ante evaluation is useful for designing programs that achieve some optimality criteria, such as maximizing impact for a given cost. This paper illustrates through several examples the use of behavioral models in predicting the impacts of hypothetical programs. Among the programs considered are wage subsidy programs, conditional cash transfer programs, and income support programs. In some cases, the behavioral model justifies a completely nonparametric estimation strategy, even when there is no direct variation in the policy instrument. In other cases, stronger modeling and/or functional form assumptions are required to evaluate a program ex ante. We illustrate the application of ex ante evaluation methods using data from the PROGRESA school subsidy experiment in Mexico. We assess the effectiveness of the method by comparing ex ante predictions of program impacts to the impacts measured under the randomized experiment.

Before and after comparisons (double-difference, DD) between treatment and control students/paren... more Before and after comparisons (double-difference, DD) between treatment and control students/parents with random assignment of treatment (randomized controlled trials, RCTs) is an approach with strong advocates, but not without difficulties regarding, for example, selective

Nber Working Papers, Oct 1, 1995

bLoAqcq JJt I1 CLC1 uCJnqu © UO11CC ! ACU O IJC OflICQ 2C!OIJ o cxi uo io ccccq iwo bnLbp wiA pc ... more bLoAqcq JJt I1 CLC1 uCJnqu © UO11CC ! ACU O IJC OflICQ 2C!OIJ o cxi uo io ccccq iwo bnLbp wiA pc dnoicq #pori cbJ!c bc!.w!!ou © Tô2 P 1UJ HCCJCUJU VIJUC i-JU bL joqq VII !4IJt2 L LACq 2POLt WPOIJfJ B'' O COUOUJIC IC2LCIJ bLoulw !u FPOL 2u'qi vu? obiuou cxbLccq tc 1po o qJc npoI. uq uo qoc o rpc 2C11001 O GOAGUJWCIU HUq DCUJPL J 4 JJJ bbcL bu o i.ccp

The Journal of Economic History, Jun 1, 2001

This paper examines how beliefs about own HIV status affect decisions to engage in risky sexual b... more This paper examines how beliefs about own HIV status affect decisions to engage in risky sexual behavior (as measured by extramarital affairs) and analyzes the potential for interventions that influence beliefs, such as HIV testing and informational campaigns, to reduce transmission rates. The empirical analysis is based on a panel survey of married males for years 2006 and 2008 from the Malawi Diffusion and Ideational Change Project (MDICP). In the data, beliefs about HIV status vary significantly geographically and over time, in part because of newly available testing opportunities and because of cultural differences. We estimate the effect of beliefs on risky behavior using Arellano and Carrasco's (2003) semiparametric panel data estimator, which accommodates unobserved heterogeneity and belief endogeneity. Results show that changes in the belief of being HIV positive induce changes in risky behavior. Downward revisions in beliefs increase risky behavior and upward revisions decrease it. We modify Arellano and Carrasco's (2003) estimator to allow for underreporting of extramarital affairs and find the estimates to be robust. Using the estimates and a prototypical epidemiological model of disease transmission, we show that better informing people about their HIV status on net reduces the population HIV transmission rate.

Education Policy in Developing Countries, 2013

Before and after comparisons (double-difference, DD) between treatment and control students/paren... more Before and after comparisons (double-difference, DD) between treatment and control students/parents with random assignment of treatment (randomized controlled trials, RCTs) is an approach with strong advocates, but not without difficulties regarding, for example, selective

Competition across money managers, along with market entry, in theory could ensure that capital m... more Competition across money managers, along with market entry, in theory could ensure that capital market remains competitive. But in Chile, which has had a privatized pension system for 25 years, high rates of switching between the funds and little downward movement on fees, have been interpreted as evidence of market inefficiency. This chapter uses a change in the regulatory rules governing the marketing of AFP pensions (Administradoras de Fondos de Pensiones) in Chile to investigate the empirical basis for sources of market frictions. We find that switching patterns are on a par with trading in US 401(k) accounts, and further, that switchers tend to be highly educated and relatively more highly paid. Switching is also more common among those with higher levels of financial literacy. The 1997 regulatory change appears to have reduced switching, particularly among the better educated.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000

Editor-in-Chief Isaac Ehrlich works with an editorial board of leading economists in developing t... more Editor-in-Chief Isaac Ehrlich works with an editorial board of leading economists in developing the JOURNAL OF HUMAN CAPITAL. This important new journal explores the role human capital plays in the production, ...

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000

This paper discusses the use of discrete choice dynamic programming (DCDP) methods for evaluating... more This paper discusses the use of discrete choice dynamic programming (DCDP) methods for evaluating policies of particular relevance to developing countries, such as policies to reduce child labor and increase school attendance, to improve school quality, to affect immigration flows, to expand old age pension benefits, or to foster small business investment through microfinance. We describe the DCDP framework and how it relates to static models, illustrate its application with an example related to conditional cash transfer programs, consider numerous empirical applications from the literature of how the DCDP methodology has been used to address subtantively important policy issues, and discuss methods for model validation.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000

This paper discusses methods for evaluating the impacts of social programs prior to their impleme... more This paper discusses methods for evaluating the impacts of social programs prior to their implementation. Ex ante evaluation is useful for designing programs that achieve some optimality criteria, such as maximizing impact for a given cost. This paper illustrates the use of behavioral models in predicting the impacts of hypothetical programs in a way that is not functional form dependent. Among the programs considered are wage subsidy programs, conditional cash transfer programs, and income support programs. In some cases, the behavioral model justifies a completely nonparametric estimation strategy, even when there is no direct variation in the policy instrument. In other cases, stronger assumptions are required to evaluate a program ex ante. We illustrate the application of ex ante evaluation methods using data from the PROGRESA school subsidy randomized experiment in Mexico. We assess the effectiveness of the ex ante prediction method by comparing predictions of program impacts to the impacts measured under the randomized experiment. The subsamples pertain to girls and boys aged 12-15. For the girls, the predicted impacts are fairly similar to the actual impacts, both in magnitude and in replicating the age patterns, with larger impacts observed at higher ages. For boys, the predicted impacts tend to overstate the actual impacts. The ex-ante evaluation method is also used to predict the effects of counterfactal programs that include changes to the subsidy schedule and an unconditional income transfer.

African-American motorists in the United States are much more likely than white motorists to have... more African-American motorists in the United States are much more likely than white motorists to have their cars searched by police checking for illegal drugs and other contraband. The courts are faced with the task of deciding on the basis of traffic-search data whether police behavior reflects a racial bias. We discuss why a simple test for racial bias commonly applied by the courts is inadequate and develop a model of law enforcement that suggests an alternative test.

The internal rate of return to schooling is a fundamental economic parameter that is often used t... more The internal rate of return to schooling is a fundamental economic parameter that is often used to assess whether expenditure on education should be increased or decreased. This paper considers alternative approaches to estimating marginal internal rates of return for different schooling levels. We implement a general nonparametric approach to estimate marginal internal rates of return that take into account tuition costs, income taxes and nonlinearities in the earnings-schooling-experience relationship. The returns obtained by the more general method differ substantially from Mincer returns in levels and in their evolution over time. They indicate relatively larger returns to graduating from high school than from graduating from college, although both have been increasing over time.

This Discussion Paper is issued within the framework of IZA's research area The Future of Labor. ... more This Discussion Paper is issued within the framework of IZA's research area The Future of Labor. Any opinions expressed here are those of the author(s) and not those of the institute. Research disseminated by IZA may include views on policy, but the institute itself takes no institutional policy positions.

The regression discontinuity (RD) data design is a quasi-experimental design with the defining ch... more The regression discontinuity (RD) data design is a quasi-experimental design with the defining characteristic that the probability of receiving treatment changes discontinuously as a function of one or more individual characteristics. This data design occasionally arises in economic and other applications but is only infrequently exploited in evaluating the effects of a treatment. We consider the problem of identification and estimation of treatment effects under a RD data design.

Handbook of Labor Economics, Vol 4a, 2011

ABSTRACT The purpose of this chapter is twofold: (1) to provide an accessible introduction to the... more ABSTRACT The purpose of this chapter is twofold: (1) to provide an accessible introduction to the methods of structural estimation of discrete choice dynamic programming (DCDP) models and (2) to survey the contributions of applications of these methods to substantive and policy issues in labor economics. The first part of the chapter describes solution and estimation methods for DCDP models using, for expository purposes, a prototypical female labor force participation model. The next part reviews the contribution of the DCDP approach to three leading areas in labor economics: labor supply, job search and human capital. The final section discusses approaches to validating DCDP models.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000

ABSTRACT This paper evaluates the impact of three different performance incentives schemes using ... more ABSTRACT This paper evaluates the impact of three different performance incentives schemes using data from a social experiment that randomized 88 Mexican high schools with over 40,000 students into three treatment groups and a control group. Treatment one provides individual incentives for performance on curriculum-based mathematics tests to students only, treatment two to teachers only and treatment three gives both individual and group incentives to students, teachers and school administrators. Program impact estimates reveal the largest average effects for treatment three, smaller impacts for treatment one and no impact for treatment two.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000