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Papers by Philipp Kartaev

Research paper thumbnail of Identification of Procyclicality by Spectral Analysis

Vestnik Instituta èkonomiki, 2023

Research paper thumbnail of Is the Phillips Curve Useful for Forecasting Inflation in Russia?

Vestnik Moskovskogo universiteta. Seriâ 7, Èkonomika, May 23, 2024

Research paper thumbnail of Predicting the outflow of household deposits based on the intensity of search queries

Finance: Theory and Practice

The subject of the study is the intensity of targeted search queries as a leading indicator of ba... more The subject of the study is the intensity of targeted search queries as a leading indicator of bank deposits outflow. The goal is to propose a mechanism for accounting information about the dynamics of search queries, able to signal changes in the volumes of deposits of individuals. The study was conducted using time series analysis models. Statistical data of Rosstat, Bank of Russia, searches in Yandex wordstat, Google Trends for the period from February 2009 to May 2022 were used. The relationship between the intensity of targeted search queries and household decisions to withdraw money from deposits and bank accounts was revealed. An assessment of the short-term predictive ability of search queries on dynamics of deposits was carried out. The use of statistical indicators on the dynamics of targeted search queries as a leading indicator of the outflow of funds of the population from deposits in commercial banks is substantiated. It was revealed that the use of the intensity index...

Research paper thumbnail of Does income inequality affect inflation in Russia?

Voprosy Ekonomiki

The paper examines the impact of income inequality in Russian regions on the dynamics of the over... more The paper examines the impact of income inequality in Russian regions on the dynamics of the overall price level. In the framework of econometric modeling based on panel data of 82 Russian regions for 2011—2020, it was evidenced that higher inequality restrains inflation, while reducing inequality accelerates price growth. To overcome the problem of endogeneity, an approach based on instrumental variables is applied. It is shown that the result is robust to changes in inequality measures, estimation methods and instrumental variables. The potential channels of influence of income distribution inequality on inflation and the effectiveness of monetary policy explaining the effect are analyzed.

Research paper thumbnail of Walking the talk: empowering tomorrow’s women leaders

Why Women Will Save the Planet, 2018

Research paper thumbnail of How to teach Econometrics to Economists: Bachelor level ..... 72 Macroeconomic Policy

Scientific Research of Faculty of Economics. Electronic Journal, 2019

The article analyzes approaches to the teaching of econometric subjects of economists. The articl... more The article analyzes approaches to the teaching of econometric subjects of economists. The article describes the teaching experience gained at the faculty of Economics of Moscow state University. Recommendations on the choice of topics and the sequence of their presentation in the framework of the basic course of econometrics; methodology of their presentation; the choice of activities for students to help them master econometrics (both within the basic course and beyond) are formulated.

Research paper thumbnail of Financial Development and Success of Inflation Targeting

In this paper we introduce the results of the research about the impact of financial development ... more In this paper we introduce the results of the research about the impact of financial development on the decrease in deviation of the real inflation rate from the central bank’s stated target inflation rate. Using methods of cluster analysis and panel procedures on a sample of the countries, which at the moment of writing the research officially stated to adhere to a policy of inflation targeting, we show that improving characteristics of financial development benefit the success of an inflation targeting regime (in terms of achieving its desired goal). It is also stated that for emerging economies the most vital channels of this mechanism are the increases in the efficiency and in the stability of financial markets and institutions.

Research paper thumbnail of How does inflation influence income inequality in Russia?

Voprosy Ekonomiki, 2020

The paper studies the impact of inflation on income inequality in Russian regions. It was reveale... more The paper studies the impact of inflation on income inequality in Russian regions. It was revealed that the reduction in inflation from double-digit rate to the Bank of Russia’s target did not help to mitigate inequality, but rather exacerbated it. We identified a group of products which changing price dynamics affects inequality. The price increase may lead to the decline in inequality through redistributive effect. It is shown that in Russia this effect is associated with the channel of unexpected inflation that results in real wealth transfer from more prosperous lenders to less well-off borrowers. The policy of inflation targeting, successfully implemented by the monetary authorities in recent years, has reduced the volatility of inflation and limited the operation of this channel. At the same time, quantitative estimates of the increase in inequality as a result of achieving price stability remain relatively low.

Research paper thumbnail of The Assessment of the Impact of Monetary Policy on Economic Growth in Different Groups of Countries

Finance: Theory and Practice, 2018

Предмет. В работе анализируется влияние на экономический рост выбора различных целевых ориентиров... more Предмет. В работе анализируется влияние на экономический рост выбора различных целевых ориентиров денежно-кредитной политики (ДКП): дискреционной политики, таргетирования денежной массы, инфляционного таргетирования и режима фиксированного валютного курса. Цель. Выявление оптимального (с точки зрения стимулирования долгосрочного экономического роста) режима денежно-кредитной политики. Методология. Используются панельные данные по 188 странам мира за период с 1999 по 2015 г. При помощи моделей с фиксированными эффектами оцениваются долгосрочные динамические мультипликаторы режимов политики центрального банка. Применяется метод эконометрического моделирования. Преимущество представленной работы по сравнению с предшествующими исследованиями состоит в том, что, во-первых, в рамках одной модели одновременно сопоставляются все основные целевые ориентиры монетарной политики, а во-вторых, исследован ряд специфических подвыборок стран, сформированных по разным критериям: по принадлежности к тому или иному континенту, по характеру экономики, по уровню этнолингвистического разнообразия. Регрессионный анализ дополняется обсуждением конкретных примеров смены целевого ориентира политики денежными властями стран, относящихся к различным рассмотренным подвыборкам. Результаты. В ходе эконометрического моделирования выявлено устойчивое (к изменению рассматриваемой группы стран) позитивное воздействие режима инфляционного таргетирования на долгосрочную динамику выпуска. Для альтернативных номинальных якорей денежно-кредитной политики подобного устойчивого эффекта не выявлено. Выводы. Режимы чистого или смешанного инфляционного таргетирования могут быть рекомендованы центральным банкам как развитых, так и развивающихся стран, если помимо достижения ценовой стабильности одной из их долгосрочных целей является создание условий для роста экономики. Ключевые слова: монетарная политика; инфляционное таргетирование; режим валютного курса; экономический рост; разнообразие; панельные данные

Research paper thumbnail of Monetary policy and the effect of the oil prices pass-through to inflation

Russian Journal of Economics, 2019

The paper examines the impact of oil price shocks on inflation, as well as the impact of the choi... more The paper examines the impact of oil price shocks on inflation, as well as the impact of the choice of the monetary policy regime on the strength of this influence. We used dynamic models on panel data for the countries of the world for 2000–2017. It is shown that the impact of changes in oil prices on inflation is carried out predominantly through the channel of exchange rate. The paper demonstrates the influence of the transition to inflation targeting on the nature of the relationship between oil price shocks and inflation. This effect is asymmetrical: during periods of rising oil prices, inflation targeting reduces the effect of the oil prices pass-through, limiting the negative effects of shock. During periods of decline in oil prices, this monetary policy regime, in contrast, contributes to a stronger pass-through, helping to reduce inflation.

Research paper thumbnail of Accelerated aging of anticorrosive coatings: Two-stage approach to the AC/DC/AC electrochemical method

Progress in Organic Coatings, 2020

Organic coatings are nowadays the most common and cost-effective approach to extend the service l... more Organic coatings are nowadays the most common and cost-effective approach to extend the service life of metallic structures subjected to weathering conditions. The development of new and more effective protective coatings is closely related to the rapid assessment of the anticorrosive performance before industrialization. Currently, the coating/metallic substrate system evaluation is made using accelerated standardized test methods. However, the time needed to perform such tests can be long, and in some cases can hold up for thousands of hours. The AC/DC/AC method is an accelerated cyclic test, consisting of a combination of electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS/AC) characterization and cathodic polarisations (DC). The latter technique has been widely used to assess the adhesion of coatings to the metallic substrate but, to the best knowledge of the authors, no clear evidences have been provided that the aging promoted by AC/DC/AC is comparable to the one promoted by standardized accelerated aging tests, such as the neutral salt spray test. Said comparison is necessary to be able to support the use of the AC/DC/AC method to assess the anticorrosive performance of coatings. This work addresses this gap and goes further, proposing an innovative two-stage AC/DC/AC procedure that allows a better control of the physical delamination inherent to this technique, while promoting a chemical and electrochemical attack of coating and metallic substrate. Two water-based organic primers applied on cold rolled steel were aged by neutral salt spray (aging characterized by EIS) and by the proposed AC/DC/AC procedure. The obtained results were critically compared based on the EIS analysis. It was observed that the twostage AC/DC/AC procedure mimicked the degradation mechanisms occurring during the neutral salt spray test, but producing results in less than 25% of the aging time.

Research paper thumbnail of Shaken, not Stirred: Comparing the Effectiveness of Pure and Hybrid Inflation Targeting

Russian Journal of Money and Finance, 2018

The study explores how the choice between pure and mixed (hybrid) inflation targeting affects the... more The study explores how the choice between pure and mixed (hybrid) inflation targeting affects the likelihood of achieving the announced inflation target achievement. Pure inflation targeting is deemed to be a regime under which inflation is the only variable in a central bank's objective function, while hybrid targeting is an alternative regime, which, in addition to inflation, includes the exchange rate in monetary authorities' objective function. Modeling is conducted on panel data of 32 inflation targeting countries. The cluster analysis method is applied to classify countries with respect to the regime used: pure or hybrid. Then a binary choice model of the probability of achieving the inflation target is estimated. The use of the hybrid option of inflation targeting is found to be associated with the increase in this probability, suggesting a higher effectiveness of this regime versus pure inflation targeting.

Research paper thumbnail of Inflation Targeting and Real GDP Dynamics: Cross-Country Evidence

Journal of the New Economic Association, 2016

Research paper thumbnail of The econometric estimation of the effect of ruble exchange rate dynamics on economic activity

Research paper thumbnail of Does the investment climate rating influence the economic development of the region?

Voprosy Ekonomiki, May 7, 2019

The paper examines the impact of improving the characteristics of the national investment climate... more The paper examines the impact of improving the characteristics of the national investment climate rating of a subject of the Russian Federation on economic development. Based on the analysis of regional panel data for the period from 2014 to 2018, it was shown that an increase in the rating of a region is associated with an inflow of investments and an increase in GRP. One of the identified channels of this influence is associated with the market of highly skilled labor. It is demonstrated that, given the inaccessibility of detailed information about the results of the regions development to investors, the rating does not fully function as a signal to them. Based on the obtained results, the recommendations for improving the rating methodology were formulated.

Research paper thumbnail of Is inflation targeting useful for economic growth?

Voprosy Ekonomiki

The paper presents an overview of studies of the effects of inflation targeting on long-term econ... more The paper presents an overview of studies of the effects of inflation targeting on long-term economic growth. We analyze the potential channels of influence, as well as modern empirical studies that test performance of these channels. We compare the effects of different variants of inflation targeting (strict and mixed). Based on the analysis recommendations on the choice of optimal (in terms of stimulating long-term growth) regime of monetary policy in developed and developing economies are formulated.

Research paper thumbnail of Identification of Procyclicality by Spectral Analysis

Vestnik Instituta èkonomiki, 2023

Research paper thumbnail of Is the Phillips Curve Useful for Forecasting Inflation in Russia?

Vestnik Moskovskogo universiteta. Seriâ 7, Èkonomika, May 23, 2024

Research paper thumbnail of Predicting the outflow of household deposits based on the intensity of search queries

Finance: Theory and Practice

The subject of the study is the intensity of targeted search queries as a leading indicator of ba... more The subject of the study is the intensity of targeted search queries as a leading indicator of bank deposits outflow. The goal is to propose a mechanism for accounting information about the dynamics of search queries, able to signal changes in the volumes of deposits of individuals. The study was conducted using time series analysis models. Statistical data of Rosstat, Bank of Russia, searches in Yandex wordstat, Google Trends for the period from February 2009 to May 2022 were used. The relationship between the intensity of targeted search queries and household decisions to withdraw money from deposits and bank accounts was revealed. An assessment of the short-term predictive ability of search queries on dynamics of deposits was carried out. The use of statistical indicators on the dynamics of targeted search queries as a leading indicator of the outflow of funds of the population from deposits in commercial banks is substantiated. It was revealed that the use of the intensity index...

Research paper thumbnail of Does income inequality affect inflation in Russia?

Voprosy Ekonomiki

The paper examines the impact of income inequality in Russian regions on the dynamics of the over... more The paper examines the impact of income inequality in Russian regions on the dynamics of the overall price level. In the framework of econometric modeling based on panel data of 82 Russian regions for 2011—2020, it was evidenced that higher inequality restrains inflation, while reducing inequality accelerates price growth. To overcome the problem of endogeneity, an approach based on instrumental variables is applied. It is shown that the result is robust to changes in inequality measures, estimation methods and instrumental variables. The potential channels of influence of income distribution inequality on inflation and the effectiveness of monetary policy explaining the effect are analyzed.

Research paper thumbnail of Walking the talk: empowering tomorrow’s women leaders

Why Women Will Save the Planet, 2018

Research paper thumbnail of How to teach Econometrics to Economists: Bachelor level ..... 72 Macroeconomic Policy

Scientific Research of Faculty of Economics. Electronic Journal, 2019

The article analyzes approaches to the teaching of econometric subjects of economists. The articl... more The article analyzes approaches to the teaching of econometric subjects of economists. The article describes the teaching experience gained at the faculty of Economics of Moscow state University. Recommendations on the choice of topics and the sequence of their presentation in the framework of the basic course of econometrics; methodology of their presentation; the choice of activities for students to help them master econometrics (both within the basic course and beyond) are formulated.

Research paper thumbnail of Financial Development and Success of Inflation Targeting

In this paper we introduce the results of the research about the impact of financial development ... more In this paper we introduce the results of the research about the impact of financial development on the decrease in deviation of the real inflation rate from the central bank’s stated target inflation rate. Using methods of cluster analysis and panel procedures on a sample of the countries, which at the moment of writing the research officially stated to adhere to a policy of inflation targeting, we show that improving characteristics of financial development benefit the success of an inflation targeting regime (in terms of achieving its desired goal). It is also stated that for emerging economies the most vital channels of this mechanism are the increases in the efficiency and in the stability of financial markets and institutions.

Research paper thumbnail of How does inflation influence income inequality in Russia?

Voprosy Ekonomiki, 2020

The paper studies the impact of inflation on income inequality in Russian regions. It was reveale... more The paper studies the impact of inflation on income inequality in Russian regions. It was revealed that the reduction in inflation from double-digit rate to the Bank of Russia’s target did not help to mitigate inequality, but rather exacerbated it. We identified a group of products which changing price dynamics affects inequality. The price increase may lead to the decline in inequality through redistributive effect. It is shown that in Russia this effect is associated with the channel of unexpected inflation that results in real wealth transfer from more prosperous lenders to less well-off borrowers. The policy of inflation targeting, successfully implemented by the monetary authorities in recent years, has reduced the volatility of inflation and limited the operation of this channel. At the same time, quantitative estimates of the increase in inequality as a result of achieving price stability remain relatively low.

Research paper thumbnail of The Assessment of the Impact of Monetary Policy on Economic Growth in Different Groups of Countries

Finance: Theory and Practice, 2018

Предмет. В работе анализируется влияние на экономический рост выбора различных целевых ориентиров... more Предмет. В работе анализируется влияние на экономический рост выбора различных целевых ориентиров денежно-кредитной политики (ДКП): дискреционной политики, таргетирования денежной массы, инфляционного таргетирования и режима фиксированного валютного курса. Цель. Выявление оптимального (с точки зрения стимулирования долгосрочного экономического роста) режима денежно-кредитной политики. Методология. Используются панельные данные по 188 странам мира за период с 1999 по 2015 г. При помощи моделей с фиксированными эффектами оцениваются долгосрочные динамические мультипликаторы режимов политики центрального банка. Применяется метод эконометрического моделирования. Преимущество представленной работы по сравнению с предшествующими исследованиями состоит в том, что, во-первых, в рамках одной модели одновременно сопоставляются все основные целевые ориентиры монетарной политики, а во-вторых, исследован ряд специфических подвыборок стран, сформированных по разным критериям: по принадлежности к тому или иному континенту, по характеру экономики, по уровню этнолингвистического разнообразия. Регрессионный анализ дополняется обсуждением конкретных примеров смены целевого ориентира политики денежными властями стран, относящихся к различным рассмотренным подвыборкам. Результаты. В ходе эконометрического моделирования выявлено устойчивое (к изменению рассматриваемой группы стран) позитивное воздействие режима инфляционного таргетирования на долгосрочную динамику выпуска. Для альтернативных номинальных якорей денежно-кредитной политики подобного устойчивого эффекта не выявлено. Выводы. Режимы чистого или смешанного инфляционного таргетирования могут быть рекомендованы центральным банкам как развитых, так и развивающихся стран, если помимо достижения ценовой стабильности одной из их долгосрочных целей является создание условий для роста экономики. Ключевые слова: монетарная политика; инфляционное таргетирование; режим валютного курса; экономический рост; разнообразие; панельные данные

Research paper thumbnail of Monetary policy and the effect of the oil prices pass-through to inflation

Russian Journal of Economics, 2019

The paper examines the impact of oil price shocks on inflation, as well as the impact of the choi... more The paper examines the impact of oil price shocks on inflation, as well as the impact of the choice of the monetary policy regime on the strength of this influence. We used dynamic models on panel data for the countries of the world for 2000–2017. It is shown that the impact of changes in oil prices on inflation is carried out predominantly through the channel of exchange rate. The paper demonstrates the influence of the transition to inflation targeting on the nature of the relationship between oil price shocks and inflation. This effect is asymmetrical: during periods of rising oil prices, inflation targeting reduces the effect of the oil prices pass-through, limiting the negative effects of shock. During periods of decline in oil prices, this monetary policy regime, in contrast, contributes to a stronger pass-through, helping to reduce inflation.

Research paper thumbnail of Accelerated aging of anticorrosive coatings: Two-stage approach to the AC/DC/AC electrochemical method

Progress in Organic Coatings, 2020

Organic coatings are nowadays the most common and cost-effective approach to extend the service l... more Organic coatings are nowadays the most common and cost-effective approach to extend the service life of metallic structures subjected to weathering conditions. The development of new and more effective protective coatings is closely related to the rapid assessment of the anticorrosive performance before industrialization. Currently, the coating/metallic substrate system evaluation is made using accelerated standardized test methods. However, the time needed to perform such tests can be long, and in some cases can hold up for thousands of hours. The AC/DC/AC method is an accelerated cyclic test, consisting of a combination of electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS/AC) characterization and cathodic polarisations (DC). The latter technique has been widely used to assess the adhesion of coatings to the metallic substrate but, to the best knowledge of the authors, no clear evidences have been provided that the aging promoted by AC/DC/AC is comparable to the one promoted by standardized accelerated aging tests, such as the neutral salt spray test. Said comparison is necessary to be able to support the use of the AC/DC/AC method to assess the anticorrosive performance of coatings. This work addresses this gap and goes further, proposing an innovative two-stage AC/DC/AC procedure that allows a better control of the physical delamination inherent to this technique, while promoting a chemical and electrochemical attack of coating and metallic substrate. Two water-based organic primers applied on cold rolled steel were aged by neutral salt spray (aging characterized by EIS) and by the proposed AC/DC/AC procedure. The obtained results were critically compared based on the EIS analysis. It was observed that the twostage AC/DC/AC procedure mimicked the degradation mechanisms occurring during the neutral salt spray test, but producing results in less than 25% of the aging time.

Research paper thumbnail of Shaken, not Stirred: Comparing the Effectiveness of Pure and Hybrid Inflation Targeting

Russian Journal of Money and Finance, 2018

The study explores how the choice between pure and mixed (hybrid) inflation targeting affects the... more The study explores how the choice between pure and mixed (hybrid) inflation targeting affects the likelihood of achieving the announced inflation target achievement. Pure inflation targeting is deemed to be a regime under which inflation is the only variable in a central bank's objective function, while hybrid targeting is an alternative regime, which, in addition to inflation, includes the exchange rate in monetary authorities' objective function. Modeling is conducted on panel data of 32 inflation targeting countries. The cluster analysis method is applied to classify countries with respect to the regime used: pure or hybrid. Then a binary choice model of the probability of achieving the inflation target is estimated. The use of the hybrid option of inflation targeting is found to be associated with the increase in this probability, suggesting a higher effectiveness of this regime versus pure inflation targeting.

Research paper thumbnail of Inflation Targeting and Real GDP Dynamics: Cross-Country Evidence

Journal of the New Economic Association, 2016

Research paper thumbnail of The econometric estimation of the effect of ruble exchange rate dynamics on economic activity

Research paper thumbnail of Does the investment climate rating influence the economic development of the region?

Voprosy Ekonomiki, May 7, 2019

The paper examines the impact of improving the characteristics of the national investment climate... more The paper examines the impact of improving the characteristics of the national investment climate rating of a subject of the Russian Federation on economic development. Based on the analysis of regional panel data for the period from 2014 to 2018, it was shown that an increase in the rating of a region is associated with an inflow of investments and an increase in GRP. One of the identified channels of this influence is associated with the market of highly skilled labor. It is demonstrated that, given the inaccessibility of detailed information about the results of the regions development to investors, the rating does not fully function as a signal to them. Based on the obtained results, the recommendations for improving the rating methodology were formulated.

Research paper thumbnail of Is inflation targeting useful for economic growth?

Voprosy Ekonomiki

The paper presents an overview of studies of the effects of inflation targeting on long-term econ... more The paper presents an overview of studies of the effects of inflation targeting on long-term economic growth. We analyze the potential channels of influence, as well as modern empirical studies that test performance of these channels. We compare the effects of different variants of inflation targeting (strict and mixed). Based on the analysis recommendations on the choice of optimal (in terms of stimulating long-term growth) regime of monetary policy in developed and developing economies are formulated.