Pierre Aagaard - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
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Papers by Pierre Aagaard
I Vejdirektoratet pågår der et vejregelforberedende arbejde, ved navn KAFKA, om kapacitets- og tr... more I Vejdirektoratet pågår der et vejregelforberedende arbejde, ved navn KAFKA, om kapacitets- og trafikafviklingsforhold i Danmark. En del af KAFKA-projektet består i at få revurderet de anbefalede metoder i danske vejregler om beregning af rundkørslers kapacitet. Denne revurdering har udmøntet sig i et udkast til, hvordan fremtidens danske vejregler om kapacitetsberegningen i rundkørsler kan se ud. Dette paper præsenterer og beskriver baggrunden for metoderne som foreslås i udkastet, og på hvilke områder det adskiller sig fra retningslinierne i de eksisterende vejregler.
The use of bicycles as a means of transport in journey-to-work trips is widespread in North West ... more The use of bicycles as a means of transport in journey-to-work trips is widespread in North West Europe. In countries such as The Netherlands, Germany and Denmark there is a tradition for research concerning bicycle traffic. For reasons of safety and convenience special cycle tracks alongside vehicle lanes are often provided where possible. Where such tracks exist through signalized intersections cyclists create problems for right turning vehicles in the same manner as do pedestrians using a pedestrian crossing. Cyclists are often much more numerous than pedestrians along main arterials. Therefore, there is a need for a method for estimating the effect on capacity of the volume of cycle traffic. Only a few methods exist (e.g. Tepley (1990)).
Risk models used to evaluate whether a transport activity operates at a tolerable safety level or... more Risk models used to evaluate whether a transport activity operates at a tolerable safety level or not often contain uncertain elements. An uncertain element could be the values of model parameters which are estimated on the basis of limited accident data. In order to make a more balanced safety evaluation, uncertain elements in the used risk model ought to be taken into account. This paper address how uncertainty in the accident frequency and accident outcome can be accounted for in the evaluation of individual risk posed by a public transport activity. The accident outcome is in the paper represented by the mean number of fatalities per fatal accident. The uncertainty in the parameters are represented by Bayesian probability distributions. It is analysed how uncertainty in the fatal accident frequency and the mean number of fatalities may affect the decision whether the individual risk posed by the transport activity is tolerable or not.
Risk models used to evaluate whether a transport activity operates at a tolerable safety level or... more Risk models used to evaluate whether a transport activity operates at a tolerable safety level or not often contain uncertain elements. An uncertain element could be the values of model parameters which are estimated on the basis of limited accident data. In order to make a more balanced safety evaluation, uncertain elements in the used risk model ought to be taken into account. This paper address how uncertainty in the accident frequency and accident outcome can be accounted for in the evaluation of individual risk posed by a public transport activity. The accident outcome is in the paper represented by the mean number of fatalities per fatal accident. The uncertainty in the parameters are represented by Bayesian probability distributions. It is analysed how uncertainty in the fatal accident frequency and the mean number of fatalities may affect the decision whether the individual risk posed by the transport activity is tolerable or not.
I Vejdirektoratet pågår der et vejregelforberedende arbejde, ved navn KAFKA, om kapacitets- og tr... more I Vejdirektoratet pågår der et vejregelforberedende arbejde, ved navn KAFKA, om kapacitets- og trafikafviklingsforhold i Danmark. En del af KAFKA-projektet består i at få revurderet de anbefalede metoder i danske vejregler om beregning af rundkørslers kapacitet. Denne revurdering har udmøntet sig i et udkast til, hvordan fremtidens danske vejregler om kapacitetsberegningen i rundkørsler kan se ud. Dette paper præsenterer og beskriver baggrunden for metoderne som foreslås i udkastet, og på hvilke områder det adskiller sig fra retningslinierne i de eksisterende vejregler.
The use of bicycles as a means of transport in journey-to-work trips is widespread in North West ... more The use of bicycles as a means of transport in journey-to-work trips is widespread in North West Europe. In countries such as The Netherlands, Germany and Denmark there is a tradition for research concerning bicycle traffic. For reasons of safety and convenience special cycle tracks alongside vehicle lanes are often provided where possible. Where such tracks exist through signalized intersections cyclists create problems for right turning vehicles in the same manner as do pedestrians using a pedestrian crossing. Cyclists are often much more numerous than pedestrians along main arterials. Therefore, there is a need for a method for estimating the effect on capacity of the volume of cycle traffic. Only a few methods exist (e.g. Tepley (1990)).
Risk models used to evaluate whether a transport activity operates at a tolerable safety level or... more Risk models used to evaluate whether a transport activity operates at a tolerable safety level or not often contain uncertain elements. An uncertain element could be the values of model parameters which are estimated on the basis of limited accident data. In order to make a more balanced safety evaluation, uncertain elements in the used risk model ought to be taken into account. This paper address how uncertainty in the accident frequency and accident outcome can be accounted for in the evaluation of individual risk posed by a public transport activity. The accident outcome is in the paper represented by the mean number of fatalities per fatal accident. The uncertainty in the parameters are represented by Bayesian probability distributions. It is analysed how uncertainty in the fatal accident frequency and the mean number of fatalities may affect the decision whether the individual risk posed by the transport activity is tolerable or not.
Risk models used to evaluate whether a transport activity operates at a tolerable safety level or... more Risk models used to evaluate whether a transport activity operates at a tolerable safety level or not often contain uncertain elements. An uncertain element could be the values of model parameters which are estimated on the basis of limited accident data. In order to make a more balanced safety evaluation, uncertain elements in the used risk model ought to be taken into account. This paper address how uncertainty in the accident frequency and accident outcome can be accounted for in the evaluation of individual risk posed by a public transport activity. The accident outcome is in the paper represented by the mean number of fatalities per fatal accident. The uncertainty in the parameters are represented by Bayesian probability distributions. It is analysed how uncertainty in the fatal accident frequency and the mean number of fatalities may affect the decision whether the individual risk posed by the transport activity is tolerable or not.