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Papers by Pierre Pinson

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to study the skill, sensitivity and lim... more The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to study the skill, sensitivity and limitations of a mesoscale model in predicting wind speed fluctuations on time scales of tens of minutes to hours. The work was motivated by the severely variable wind conditions that are often observed at the Horns Rev wind farm in the Danish North Sea. From a wind energy perspective, such fluctuations present challenges for both electricity transmission system operators, who must ensure reliability of the electricity grid, and wind farm operators, who must avoid financial losses associated with sudden and unexpected dips in wind power. Good forecasts of the onset of severely variable wind conditions are one way of increasing preparedness for such events. WRF was first used to model an episode of intense wind fluctuations that was observed at an offshore meteorological mast near the Horns Rev wind farm on 23-24th October 2002. WRF was able to reproduce large fluctuations in horizontal wind speed with a similar frequency to that of the observed wind fluctuations. Building on this result, WRF was then set up in an idealised framework as a simple simulation of wind blowing over water. The initialisation of the model was based on the actual conditions during a severely variable wind event over the North Sea. The benefit of running the model in an idealised mode was that individual aspects of model performance could be clearly isolated. During the first few hours of simulation, WRF produced unrealistic fluctuations in wind speed that were dominated by the horizontal grid spacing of the model. After 4 to 5 hours, realistic open cellular convection developed, with large fluctuations in horizontal wind speed similar to those observed in the real case. The structure of the convective cells had a spatial scale of about 30 km, which corresponded closely to cloud patterns seen in a visual satellite picture from the same event. The scale of the cells was largely invariant to changes in the horizontal grid spacing, suggesting that the wind speed fluctuations were driven by realistic physics. Running the model at a horizontal resolution of 1 km was sufficient to capture the main spatial structure of the cells. Having ascertained that the idealised model could simulate realistic physical patterns in atmospheric convection, it was then used to explore the sensitivity of the modelled convection patterns to the initial conditions, including sea surface temperature and the shape of the initial temperature profile. The simulations in this study were idealised and cannot directly represent the real atmosphere. However, they have implications both for real modelling and for understanding the real atmosphere. They demonstrate that a mesoscale model is capable of realistically capturing fluctuations in horizontal wind speed on time scales as short as about an hour. The sensitivity of the open cellular convection to the shape of the temperature profile indicates that to properly forecast the frequency and amplitude of fluctuations in horizontal wind speed, the temperature and relative humidity should be well resolved throughout the boundary layer.

Lecture Notes in Statistics, 2015

Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2014

International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems, 2015

ABSTRACT This paper describes a profit-maximisation model for a hybrid concentrated solar power (... more ABSTRACT This paper describes a profit-maximisation model for a hybrid concentrated solar power (CSP) producer participating in a day-ahead market with bilateral contracts, where there is no correlation between the electricity market price and the solar irradiation. Backup system coordination is included between the molten-salt thermal energy storage (TES) and a fossil-fuel backup to overcome solar irradiation insufficiency, but with emission allowances constrained in the backup system to mitigate carbon footprint. A robust optimisation-based approach is proposed to provide the day-ahead self-schedule under the worst-case realisation of uncertainties due to the electricity market prices and the thermal production from the solar field (SF). These uncertainties are modelled by asymmetric prediction intervals around average values. Additionally, a budget parameter is used to parameterise the degree of conservatism of the decision. The decision provides the optimal bidding strategies consisting in supply functions built not only for different budget parameter values, but also for different emission allowance levels. Finally, a realistic case study is presented to show the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

2010 IEEE 11th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, 2010

Page 1. 978-1-4244-5721-2/10/$26.00 ©2010 IEEE PMAPS 2010 A. Carpinone, R. Langella, A. Testa, In... more Page 1. 978-1-4244-5721-2/10/$26.00 ©2010 IEEE PMAPS 2010 A. Carpinone, R. Langella, A. Testa, Information Engineering Department Second University of Naples Aversa, Italy M. Giorgio Aerospace and Mechanical Engineering ...

Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy, 2014

ABSTRACT Future electric power systems will face new operational challenges due to the high penet... more ABSTRACT Future electric power systems will face new operational challenges due to the high penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs). In Denmark distribution system operator (DSO) expects a significant congestion increased in distribution grids. In order to manage these congestions and mobilize the DERs as economically efficient as possible in the future distribution grid, the brand new notion of Flexibility Clearing House (FLECH) is proposed in this paper. With the Aggregator-based offers, the proposed FLECH market has the ability to promote small scale DERs (up to 5MW) for actively participating in trading flexibility services, which are stipulated accommodating the various requirements of DSO. Accordingly, the trading setups and processes of the FLECH market are also illustrated in detail. A quantitative example is utilized to illustrate the formulation and classification of flexibility services provided by the DERs in the proposed FLECH market.