Przemyslaw Wozniak - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Przemyslaw Wozniak

Social Science Research Network, 1999

As inflation targeting gains popularity policy makers, monetary authorities seek to design a meas... more As inflation targeting gains popularity policy makers, monetary authorities seek to design a measure of inflation that would be a good indicator of fundamental demand-driven price movements, i.e. the underlying or core rate of inflation. It is widely acknowledged that the Consumer Price Index (which is the simple weighted average of price changes of the set of goods and services comprising the consumers' expenditure basket) is a rather deficient indicator of the "trend" inflation as it is highly volatile, seasonal and contains a lot of noise. The ideal measure of core inflation should account for the long-term trend movements in prices that reflect the state of demand in the economy and discard various one-off shocks coming from supply side. The paper presents 4 alternative methods of calculating the core inflation most commonly found in the literature: trimmed mean, sample mean percentile, standard deviation trimmed mean and exclusion mean. Using Polish price data from the period 1995:1-1998:7, each measure is calculated at monthly, quarterly and annual frequencies and compared to the 24-month centered moving average .of the CPI which is assumed to be the benchmark core inflation. Root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute deviation (MAD) of the candidate measure and the benchmark were chosen to be the criteria for choosing the optimal definition-both within each of the 4 groups and across them. Rather surprisingly, crude methods based on exclusion yielded the best results. Volatility-based exclusion proved most efficient for monthly and quarterly series, whereas excluding broad aggregates (food and energy) turned out optimal for annual series. The paper concludes with highlighting the caveats and fragility of the results as well as stressing the necessity of further research.

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Feb 28, 1998

Wozniak evaluates how much relative price shifts inflation. Appreciation of the real exchange rat... more Wozniak evaluates how much relative price shifts inflation. Appreciation of the real exchange rate lowered affected inflation in Poland between 1989 and 1997. He it. uses a theoretical model that predicts a positive Administered price increases-In utilities and other relationship between variance and skewness in the sectors controlled by the governmentdominated distribution of relative price changes and the general inflation from 1989-97. And the adjustment of miany inflation rate. controlled prices is not yet complete. Ideally, future Regressions controlling for various shocks revealed administered increases should be frequent and moderate that significant relative price changesespecially the to prevent the large price shifts that increase inflation. large administered price increases associated with But because frequent price increases are likely to be adjustmentproduced substantial upward inflationary politically unpopular, sizable increases may be in order pressures. so that the current undervaluation of numerous services Growth in money and wages were shown to fuel will diminish more quickly. This papera product of the Office of the Director, Eastern Europe and Central Asia Regionis part of a larger effort in the region to disseminate the findings on the economic transformation in former socialist countries. Copies of the paper are available free from the World Bank,

Social Science Research Network, 2007

In this paper we investigate the effects of EU enlargement on price convergence. The internal mar... more In this paper we investigate the effects of EU enlargement on price convergence. The internal market is expected to boost integration and increase efficiency and welfare through a convergence of prices in product markets. Two principal drivers are crucial to explain price developments. On the one hand, higher competition exerts a downward pressure on prices because of lower mark ups. On the other hand, the catching up process of low income countries leads to a rise in the price levels and higher inflation over a transition period. Using comparative price levels for 41 product categories price convergence can be established. However, the speed of convergence is rather slow, with half lives around 10 years. The enlargement has slightly stimulated convergence towards the mean price, and this impact is robust across different groups of countries. Moreover, the driving forces of convergence are explored. In line with theoretical predictions, the rise in competition exerts a downward pressure on prices, while catching up of low income countries leads to a rise in price levels and higher inflation. The findings have important implications, as price convergence facilitates the working of common economic policies.

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 1997

Materials published in these series have a working paper character. They can be subject to furthe... more Materials published in these series have a working paper character. They can be subject to further publication. The views and opinions expressed here reflect Authors' point of view and not necessarily those of CASE.

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 2002

EconPol Policy Brief, 2019

The World Bank eBooks, Nov 30, 1999

997, growth in mroney and in P ln ,1 8 97wages fueled inflation and appreciation of the real T he... more 997, growth in mroney and in P ln ,1 8 97wages fueled inflation and appreciation of the real T he Special Role of Administered exchange rate lowered it.

Social Science Research Network, 2002

thanks the Bank of Finland's Institute for Economies in Transition, BOFIT, for providing excellen... more thanks the Bank of Finland's Institute for Economies in Transition, BOFIT, for providing excellent research facilities during his stay as a Visiting Researcher in 2002. The authors thank Iikka Korhonen for helpful comments and CASE Foundation, Poland, for organizational assistance.

Social Science Research Network, 2003

Materials published here have a working paper character. They can be subject to further publicati... more Materials published here have a working paper character. They can be subject to further publication. The views and opinions expressed here reflect the author(s) point of view and not necessarily those of the CASE.

Social Science Research Network, 2004

The views and opinions expressed here reflect the author(s) point of view and not necessarily tho... more The views and opinions expressed here reflect the author(s) point of view and not necessarily those of the CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research. The study was financed from the funds of the State Committee for Scientific Research in 2003-2004 within the research project entitled Efekt Harroda-Balassy-Samuelsona w Polsce i innych krajach Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej (Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Effect in Poland and other Countries of Central and Eastern Europe).

Growth in the Polish economy in the fourth quarter of 2006 and in the whole of 2006 exceeded expe... more Growth in the Polish economy in the fourth quarter of 2006 and in the whole of 2006 exceeded expectations reaching the highest yearly rate since 1997. The economy expanded at 6.6% yoy in the fourth quarter and at an annual average of 6.1%. The growth was driven by a surge in investment, private consumption and exports. Strong demand was met by an acceleration of industrial production growth and contributed to a reduction of registered unemployment to the lowest levels since the late 1990s. The outlook is positive both in the short and medium term. Forecasts show continued high GDP growth figures in the coming quarters and business sentiment indexes, as well as consumer confidence indexes are at or close to historically high levels. The rapid growth of fixed capital investment adds to the picture of prevailing optimism. The 2006 HICP inflation rate, at an annual average of 1.3%, remained among the EU lowest, while higher GDP growth and tax revenues have led to a smaller-thanexpected fiscal deficit in terms of GDP. Despite the positive perspective there are, however, a number of risks to the downside emerging. First of all, rising demand and credit figures lead to the emergence of some inflationary pressures. On the supply side, despite still high registered unemployment rates, labor supply in some markets seems especially squeezed, in part due to migration. March 2007 inflation exceeded expectations reaching 2.5% and is projected to rise further by the end of 2007. Government spending needs to be cut back given the growth phase of the economic cycle and unprecedented optimism levels. However, plans for consolidation do not seem ambitious and the postponement of tax reforms constitutes a foregone occasion to reorganize the state budget before a slowdown kicks in. For now, there seems little possibility of meeting the 3% of GDP limit on fiscal deficit and having the EU's excessive deficit procedure lifted in the coming years. The housing market in the main cities is booming, fueled largely by increased access to mortgage loans. Supply in the entire construction sector is rising, though is curbed in part by problems of tightening labor supply. Poor credit access in the past leads to the expectation that this fast growth is part of a catch-up effect rather than a bubble. If rising inflation pressures are not contained in time and will ultimately require large(r) interest rate hikes the housing market may be vulnerable to a rapid cooling. Some additional sources of uncertainty in the fourth quarter of 2006 included issues of energy security and rather ambiguous attempts to find a replacement for the outgoing central bank governor. Finally, mainly due to high demand for exports in the EU, the current account deficit remains moderate; however the most recent figures exceeded expectations because of a larger-than-expected trade deficit. Therefore, although the economy is certainly doing well, some fears of overheating are emerging, and there is room for both central bank and government action in order to contain the uncertainties and sustain the high growth. In the new edition of the Polish Economic Outlook we summarize the main macroeconomic developments in the last quarter of 2006 and the first quarter of 2007. We present CASE forecasts for the main variables and introduce a Special Topic section in order to focus on broader economic issues. To start we propose Poland, the Euro and the Maastricht Criteria

The post-crisis weakness of global trade, which starkly contrasts with the marked acceleration in... more The post-crisis weakness of global trade, which starkly contrasts with the marked acceleration in the previous two decades, has received considerable attention in the context of the global policy debate. Given the key role of trade in spreading innovation, boosting productivity and ultimately fostering economic growth, a better understanding of trade developments and outlook is crucial for policymakers. This paper takes stock of existing empirical studies on the determinants of global trade flows with particular attention given the recent slowdown. In line with our estimates, these studies suggest that a large part of the trade weakness can be explained by geographical shifts in GDP and trade shares towards less intensely-trading emerging markets, changes in the composition of demand away from import-intensive investment, and the slowdown of global value chains. Other important factors include structural changes in China, the unwinding of the commodity price boom and a slower pace o...