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Papers by Quentin Guibert

Research paper thumbnail of Analyse de la solvabilité d’un régime de retraite supplémentaire

Research paper thumbnail of Un cadre de r�f�rence pour un mod�le interne partiel en assurance de personnes

Research paper thumbnail of Influence of Economic Factors on the Credit Rating Transitions and Defaults of Credit Insurance Business

Research paper thumbnail of Non-Parametric Inference of Transition Probabilities Based on Aalen-Johansen Integral Estimators for Acyclic Multi-State Models: Application to LTC Insurance

Studying Long Term Care (LTC) insurance requires to model the lifetime of individuals in presence... more Studying Long Term Care (LTC) insurance requires to model the lifetime of individuals in presence of both terminal and non-terminal events which are concurrent. In this paper, we analyze this situation with a multi-state approach and we exhibit non-parametric estimators of transition probabilities considering the Markov assumption does not hold. The proposed estimators can be seen as Aalen-Johansen integrals for competing risks data, which are obtained by re-setting the system with two competing risks blocks. As little attention has been given to this issue, we derive asymptotic results for this type of estimator under non-dependent random right-censorship in presence of covariates and discuss their possible outlooks. We also develop a methodology to investigate time dependence association measures between cause-specific failure times. For key transition probabilities, we conduct simulations to analyze the performance of our estimators versus the classical Aalen-Johansen estimators. Finally, we propose a numerical application with LTC insurance data, which is traditionally analyzed with semi-Markov model. . of biometric tables in insurance. With the development of Solvency II and the IFRS frameworks, this last need for realistic tables is becoming increasingly important .

Research paper thumbnail of Measuring uncertainty of solvency coverage ratio in ORSA for non-life insurance

European Actuarial Journal, 2012

ABSTRACT

Research paper thumbnail of Non-parametric inference of transition probabilities based on Aalen-Johansen integral estimators for semi-competing risks data: application to LTC insurance

Studying Long Term Care (LTC) insurance requires to model the lifetime of individuals in presence... more Studying Long Term Care (LTC) insurance requires to model the lifetime of individuals in presence of both terminal and non-terminal events which are concurrent. In this paper, we analyze this situation with a multi-state approach and we exhibit non-parametric estimators of transition probabilities considering the Markov assumption does not hold. The proposed estimators can be seen as Aalen-Johansen integrals for competing risks data, which are obtained by re-setting the system with two competing risks blocks. As little attention has been given to this issue, we derive asymptotic results for this type of estimator under non-dependent random right-censorship in presence of covariates and discuss their possible outlooks. We also develop a methodology to investigate time dependence association measures between cause-specific failure times. For key transition probabilities, we conduct simulations to analyze the performance of our estimators versus the classical Aalen-Johansen estimators. Finally, we propose a numerical application with LTC insurance data, which is traditionally analyzed with semi-Markov model. . of biometric tables in insurance. With the development of Solvency II and the IFRS frameworks, this last need for realistic tables is becoming increasingly important .

Research paper thumbnail of Solvabilité prospective en assurance - Méthodes quantitatives pour l'ORSA

Research paper thumbnail of Construction de lois d’expérience en présence d’évènements concurrents–application à l’estimation des lois d’incidence d’un contrat dépendance

Research paper thumbnail of Un cadre de référence pour un modèle interne partiel en assurance de personnes

WINTER & Associés  RESUME Cet article propose un cadre général pour construire un modèle interne... more WINTER & Associés  RESUME Cet article propose un cadre général pour construire un modèle interne ou un modèle interne partiel dans un contexte d'assurance de personnes. Sa contribution consiste à montrer que dans ce contexte, du fait du caractère gaussien des engagements conditionnellement aux facteurs de risque systématique, il est possible d'obtenir des expressions des valeurs de référence (best estimate, marge pour risque et SCR) dans le cadre d'une approche mêlant calculs analytiques et simulation qui s'avère particulièrement efficace en termes de mise en oeuvre.  Frédéric Planchet est Professeur à l'ISFA et actuaire associé chez WINTER & Associés. Contact : fplanchet@winterassocies.fr.  Marc Juillard et Quentin Guibert sont actuaires consultants chez WINTER & Associés

Research paper thumbnail of Main Determinants of Profit Sharing Policy in the French Life Insurance Industry

We use a brand new data-set built from French supervisory reports to investigate the drivers of t... more We use a brand new data-set built from French supervisory reports to investigate the drivers of the participation rates served on euro-denominated life-insurance contracts over the period 1999-2013. Our analysis confirms practitioners' insight on the alignment with the 10-years French government bond, yet we show that on aggregate, insurers serve less than this target. Our data indicate that financial margins are more strictly targeted than participation. We find evidence that lapses are fairly uncorrelated with participation, suggesting other levers to pilot surrenders. If higher asset returns can imply better yield for policyholders, riskier portfolios do not translate into better participation.

Research paper thumbnail of Analyse de la solvabilité d’un régime de retraite supplémentaire

Research paper thumbnail of Un cadre de r�f�rence pour un mod�le interne partiel en assurance de personnes

Research paper thumbnail of Influence of Economic Factors on the Credit Rating Transitions and Defaults of Credit Insurance Business

Research paper thumbnail of Non-Parametric Inference of Transition Probabilities Based on Aalen-Johansen Integral Estimators for Acyclic Multi-State Models: Application to LTC Insurance

Studying Long Term Care (LTC) insurance requires to model the lifetime of individuals in presence... more Studying Long Term Care (LTC) insurance requires to model the lifetime of individuals in presence of both terminal and non-terminal events which are concurrent. In this paper, we analyze this situation with a multi-state approach and we exhibit non-parametric estimators of transition probabilities considering the Markov assumption does not hold. The proposed estimators can be seen as Aalen-Johansen integrals for competing risks data, which are obtained by re-setting the system with two competing risks blocks. As little attention has been given to this issue, we derive asymptotic results for this type of estimator under non-dependent random right-censorship in presence of covariates and discuss their possible outlooks. We also develop a methodology to investigate time dependence association measures between cause-specific failure times. For key transition probabilities, we conduct simulations to analyze the performance of our estimators versus the classical Aalen-Johansen estimators. Finally, we propose a numerical application with LTC insurance data, which is traditionally analyzed with semi-Markov model. . of biometric tables in insurance. With the development of Solvency II and the IFRS frameworks, this last need for realistic tables is becoming increasingly important .

Research paper thumbnail of Measuring uncertainty of solvency coverage ratio in ORSA for non-life insurance

European Actuarial Journal, 2012

ABSTRACT

Research paper thumbnail of Non-parametric inference of transition probabilities based on Aalen-Johansen integral estimators for semi-competing risks data: application to LTC insurance

Studying Long Term Care (LTC) insurance requires to model the lifetime of individuals in presence... more Studying Long Term Care (LTC) insurance requires to model the lifetime of individuals in presence of both terminal and non-terminal events which are concurrent. In this paper, we analyze this situation with a multi-state approach and we exhibit non-parametric estimators of transition probabilities considering the Markov assumption does not hold. The proposed estimators can be seen as Aalen-Johansen integrals for competing risks data, which are obtained by re-setting the system with two competing risks blocks. As little attention has been given to this issue, we derive asymptotic results for this type of estimator under non-dependent random right-censorship in presence of covariates and discuss their possible outlooks. We also develop a methodology to investigate time dependence association measures between cause-specific failure times. For key transition probabilities, we conduct simulations to analyze the performance of our estimators versus the classical Aalen-Johansen estimators. Finally, we propose a numerical application with LTC insurance data, which is traditionally analyzed with semi-Markov model. . of biometric tables in insurance. With the development of Solvency II and the IFRS frameworks, this last need for realistic tables is becoming increasingly important .

Research paper thumbnail of Solvabilité prospective en assurance - Méthodes quantitatives pour l'ORSA

Research paper thumbnail of Construction de lois d’expérience en présence d’évènements concurrents–application à l’estimation des lois d’incidence d’un contrat dépendance

Research paper thumbnail of Un cadre de référence pour un modèle interne partiel en assurance de personnes

WINTER & Associés  RESUME Cet article propose un cadre général pour construire un modèle interne... more WINTER & Associés  RESUME Cet article propose un cadre général pour construire un modèle interne ou un modèle interne partiel dans un contexte d'assurance de personnes. Sa contribution consiste à montrer que dans ce contexte, du fait du caractère gaussien des engagements conditionnellement aux facteurs de risque systématique, il est possible d'obtenir des expressions des valeurs de référence (best estimate, marge pour risque et SCR) dans le cadre d'une approche mêlant calculs analytiques et simulation qui s'avère particulièrement efficace en termes de mise en oeuvre.  Frédéric Planchet est Professeur à l'ISFA et actuaire associé chez WINTER & Associés. Contact : fplanchet@winterassocies.fr.  Marc Juillard et Quentin Guibert sont actuaires consultants chez WINTER & Associés

Research paper thumbnail of Main Determinants of Profit Sharing Policy in the French Life Insurance Industry

We use a brand new data-set built from French supervisory reports to investigate the drivers of t... more We use a brand new data-set built from French supervisory reports to investigate the drivers of the participation rates served on euro-denominated life-insurance contracts over the period 1999-2013. Our analysis confirms practitioners' insight on the alignment with the 10-years French government bond, yet we show that on aggregate, insurers serve less than this target. Our data indicate that financial margins are more strictly targeted than participation. We find evidence that lapses are fairly uncorrelated with participation, suggesting other levers to pilot surrenders. If higher asset returns can imply better yield for policyholders, riskier portfolios do not translate into better participation.

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