Ruben Atoyan - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Ruben Atoyan

This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views express... more This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. This paper examines the duration of capital account crises. We develop a new index to identify both the start and the end of these crises. Applying the index to a sample of 18 crisis episodes, we derive stylized facts on crisis duration and review the economic and financial circumstances that prevailed at the dusk of crises, a relatively unexplored area. We use the econometric technique of duration analysis to gauge the relative importance of various factors affecting the probability of exiting a crisis. We find that initial and external conditions are key determinants. But fiscal and monetary policies can also help shorten crisis duration.

The views expressed in this Background Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily re... more The views expressed in this Background Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF, IMF policy or the IEO. Background Papers report analyses related to the work of the IEO and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. 1 A version of this paper was presented at Yale University Conference on the Role of the World Bank and the IMF in the Global Economy, 25-27 April 2003. An abbreviated version will be published in a volume of conference proceedings. 2 Rouben Atoian and Patrick Conway are at the University of Carolina at Chapel Hill; Marcelo Selowsky and Tsidi Tsikata are at the Independent Evaluation Office of the IMF. This paper examines the accuracy of IMF projections in 175 programs approved in the period 1993-2001, focusing specifically on ratios of the fiscal surplus to GDP and external current account surplus to GDP. Four potential reasons for divergence of projected from actual values are identified: (i) mismeasured data on initial conditions; (ii) differences between the "model" underlying the IMF projections and the "model" suggested by the data on outturns; (iii) differences between reforms/measures underlying the projections and those actually undertaken; and (iv) random errors in the actual data. Our analysis suggests that while all are important, incomplete information on initial conditions is the largest contributor to projection inaccuracy. We also investigate the role of revisions over time in projection error, and find that they improve projections for fiscal account data, while the current account continues to indicate a great deal of variability in the revision process.

This paper examines the duration of capital account crises. We develop a new index to identify bo... more This paper examines the duration of capital account crises. We develop a new index to identify both the start and the end of these crises. Applying the index to a sample of 18 crisis episodes, we derive stylized facts on crisis duration and review the economic and financial circumstances that prevailed at the dusk of crises, a relatively unexplored area. We use the econometric technique of duration analysis to gauge the relative importance of various factors affecting the probability of exiting a crisis. We find that initial and external conditions are key determinants. But fiscal and monetary policies can also help shorten crisis duration.

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, Oct 17, 2014

Regional Economic Outlook, 2014

The past 25 years have seen a dramatic transformation in Europe’s former communist countries, res... more The past 25 years have seen a dramatic transformation in Europe’s former communist countries, resulting in their reintegration with the global economy, and, in most cases, major improvements in living standards. But the task of building full market economies has been difficult and protracted. Liberalization of trade and prices came quickly, but institutional reforms—such as governance reform, competition policy, privatization and enterprise restructuring—often faced opposition from vested interests. The results of the first years of transition were uneven. All countries suffered high inflation and major recessions as prices were freed and old economic linkages broke down. But the scale of output losses and the time taken for growth to return and inflation to be brought under control varied widely. Initial conditions and external factors played a role, but policies were critical too. Countries that undertook more front-loaded and bold reforms were rewarded with faster recovery and in...

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, Oct 17, 2014

The authors thank colleagues at UNC for valuable comments. Remaining errors are our own. Michael ... more The authors thank colleagues at UNC for valuable comments. Remaining errors are our own. Michael Salemi thanks participants at the European Monetary Forum Conference on Money in honor of Sir Alan Walters for their helpful comments on a related paper.

In this paper, we follow the standard two-step approach to policy evaluation. We set out a small ... more In this paper, we follow the standard two-step approach to policy evaluation. We set out a small structural model and obtain estimates of its parameters, and then evaluate the performance of alternative policy rules while treating estimates of the structural parameters as fixed and known. We break with standard practice in an interesting way. On the assumption that structural-error covariances are fixed and known, we compare the performance of fixed coefficient rules that condition on past state variables, current state variables, and expectations of future state variables. We also compare fixed-coefficient rules to optimal commitment and discretion. Our paper provides evidence on the practical importance to a central bank of obtaining a commitment mechanism and on the loss in performance when the commitment mechanism takes the form of a simple fixedcoefficient policy rule. Monetary policy rules are naturally amenable to modern econometric policy evaluation methods that were develop...

For decades now privatisation has been a part of the everyday practice of economic and property p... more For decades now privatisation has been a part of the everyday practice of economic and property policy. Its analysis and critique have become established and substantial, and they show that the promises of neoliberal privatisation policy in terms of de-bureaucratisation, increase in efficiency, cost savings or price reduction and decentralisation or even democratisation have not been fulfilled; instead there is a multitude of problematic consequences, such as de-democratisation or growing inequality. The world economic crisis of 2008/2009 makes clear this policy’s enormous potential for crisis. However, if alternatives are at issue, then the uncertainty is considerable. What concepts can be used to embrace these alternatives? For if we do not succeed in holding up a publicly effective counter-concept to the «private» and to «privatisation», and in so doing create a conceptualpolitical contrasting point of identification to the rhetoric and politics of the private, opposition to the ...

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, Oct 17, 2014

Regional Economic Outlook, 2014

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, Oct 17, 2014