Ramos Mabugu - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Ramos Mabugu

Social Science Research Network, 2005

The paper has also benefited from comments by PEP workshop participants, especially Jim Davies. C... more The paper has also benefited from comments by PEP workshop participants, especially Jim Davies. Comments from GTAP 2005 participants and the 10 th Annual African Econometric Society (AES) 2005 are also acknowledged. Suggestions from two anonymous referees are gratefully acknowledged. Any errors remain our own.

Érudit documents and data repository (Érudit Consortium, University of Montreal), Oct 11, 2019

In a first for South Africa, we draw on literature on infrastructure productivity to model dynami... more In a first for South Africa, we draw on literature on infrastructure productivity to model dynamic economywide employment impacts of infrastructure investment funded with different fiscal tools. According to the South African investment plan, the policy will affect the stock of infrastructure as well as the stock of capital of some private and public sectors. Increased government deficit financed infrastructure spending improves GDP and reduces unemployment. However, in the long term, the policy reduces investment and it is not sustainable for South Africa to let its deficit grow unabated. Increased investment spending financed by tax increases has contrasting implications on unemployment. In the long run, unemployment decreases for all types of workers under one of the scenarios. In the short run, only elementary occupation workers benefit from a decrease in unemployment; for the rest, unemployment rises. Findings have immediate policy implications in various policy modelling areas.

Social Science Research Network, 2006

International Review of Environmental and Resource Economics, 2023

Social Science Research Network, 2005

A CGE model of South Africa is used to find the potential for a 'double or triple dividend', if t... more A CGE model of South Africa is used to find the potential for a 'double or triple dividend', if the revenues raised from an energy related environmental tax are recycled into households and industry through lowering existing taxes. Four environmental taxes and three revenue-recycling schemes are compared. The environmental taxes are (i) a tax on greenhouse gas emissions, (ii) a fuel tax, (iii) a tax on electricity use, and (iv) an energy tax. The four taxes are constructed such that they have a comparable effect on emissions. The revenue is recycled through either (i) a direct tax break on both labour and capital, (ii) an indirect tax break to all households, or (iii) a reduction in the price of food. A triple dividend is found when any one of the environmental taxes is recycled through a reduction in food prices.

This case study examines the impacts on poverty and equality of the extended trade liberalisation... more This case study examines the impacts on poverty and equality of the extended trade liberalisation strategy that South Africa has been following since 1994. The paper features an integrated CGE microsimulation model with explicit incorporation of non-market activities and gender decomposition. This makes it possible to assess the effects of trade liberalization on between and withingroup poverty, as well as on gender-disaggregated household production and leisure. The findings reveal that trade liberalization is strongly gender biased against women.

Journal of Energy in Southern Africa, Aug 1, 2005

This paper discusses the procedures and results of constructing a greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions ... more This paper discusses the procedures and results of constructing a greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions inventory for South Africa, using the official national energy balance for 1998. In doing so, the paper offers a snapshot of the South African energy supply and demand profile and encompassing greenhouse gas emissions profiles, disaggregated into 40 economic sectors, for the reference year. For convenience, energy supply and use are reported in both native units and terra joule (TJ), while emissions are expressed in carbon dioxide equivalents and reported in giga-gram (Gg). While carbon dioxide makes an overwhelming contribution to global anthropogenic GHG emissions, the inclusion of methane and nitrous oxide offers considerable richness to the analysis of climate change policies. Applying the energy balances, it was possible to compile a comprehensive emissions inventory using a consistent methodology across all sectors of the economy. The inventory allows the economic analyst to model various economic policies either with fuel as an input to production, or the consumption of fuel or the emissions generated during combustion, as a base of the analysis. The dominant role of coal as a source of energy, with a total primary energy supply (TPES) of 3.3 million TJ or 70 per cent of the total TPES, is clearly shown. Emissions from coal combustion (263 783 Gg of carbon dioxide equivalents or 74.7 per cent of total emissions) are henceforth the largest contributor to total emissions, estimated to be 352 932 Gg carbon dioxide equivalents.

HAL (Le Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe), Oct 31, 2020

Social Science Research Network, 2005

The paper uses a micro-simulation computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to study the impact ... more The paper uses a micro-simulation computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to study the impact on poverty of trade liberalisation in Zimbabwe. The model incorporates 14006 households derived from the 1995 Poverty Assessment Study Survey (PASS). The novelty of this paper is that it is one among a small group of papers that incorporates individual households in the CGE model as opposed to having representative households, allowing for a comprehensive analysis of poverty. The complete removal of tariffs favours exportoriented sectors and all imports increase. Poverty falls in the economy while inequality hardly changes. The results differ between rural and urban areas.

South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences, May 22, 2014

South Africa, as an upper middle-income, resource-intensive developing country with an open econo... more South Africa, as an upper middle-income, resource-intensive developing country with an open economy, has to find innovative ways to combat poverty, promote economic growth and reduce the intensity of resource use, simultaneously. One option is to explore the plausibility of achieving a double dividend by levying a tax on water and energy and recycling the revenue back to the economy by allowing for a reduction in other forms of taxation. According to the double dividend theory it is possible, under some conditions, to achieve both environmental and economic objectives. We investigated such a possibility in the South African economy using an integrated economy/environment CGE model and found that it is indeed possible to achieve such double dividend benefits. Given the prevailing economic and environmental contexts, government should actively search for ways to achieve such dividends. JEL Q43

Exposition au commerce mondial des produits et aux perturbations du marché : impacts sur la crois... more Exposition au commerce mondial des produits et aux perturbations du marché : impacts sur la croissance, la pauvreté et la sécurité alimentaire au Malawi 2 AKADEMIYA L'Expertise que nous avons. L'Afrique que nous voulons.

Oxford University Press eBooks, Nov 11, 2022

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 2009

A dynamic computable general equilibrium model based on the PEP standard model developed by Decal... more A dynamic computable general equilibrium model based on the PEP standard model developed by Decaluwé et al. (2009) is used to evaluate the impacts of the international crisis on the South African economy. However, we have changed some assumptions in order to better represent South African specificities. A major innovation in this regard is the modelling of unemployment and the influence of labour unions on the labour market. Two scenarios encompassing a severe and moderate recession are run. The effects of the crisis on the economy are really quite harsh, even in the moderate recession scenario, both in the short run and the long run. Indeed, the decrease of world prices combined with the drop of world demand lead to a decrease in production for many sectors with consequent laying off of workers. The impact on institutions is also worrying: agents see their income as well as their savings decreasing. The huge drop in firms' savings has a dire impact on total investment while the huge negative impact on government accounts of protracted slow global growth imply tight public budgets for some time to come. Thus, some gains made by the government prior to the crisis may have been reversed by the economic crisis. It is apparent from the results that the impact of the crisis will drag into the long run with the situation still below what it would have been in the absence of a crisis until 2015.

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Jun 1, 2010

This paper reports on a study to provide insights into the magnitude of the shocks associated wit... more This paper reports on a study to provide insights into the magnitude of the shocks associated with the recent global economic crisis in macroeconomic terms in South Africa, the country's capacity to withstand or cushion these shocks, and the extent of fragility in terms of poverty levels and child wellbeing. The analysis combines macroeconomic and micro-economic tools to assess the extent of the crisis' impact on the country. The study finds that the poverty headcount ratio increases little in the moderate crisis scenario, but substantially under the severe scenario. However, under both scenarios there is a relatively successful return to close to the business as usual trend. It is important to note though that under both scenarios, more poverty sensitive measures (the poverty gap ratio and the poverty severity ratio) decline more, and remain in negative territory longer, showing that the major impact of the crisis is on the poorest, and that this impact is most difficult to overcome.

Zimbabwe Science News, 2002

This paper discusses the potential impacts of macroeconomic policies on forestry in Zimbabwe. Ove... more This paper discusses the potential impacts of macroeconomic policies on forestry in Zimbabwe. Over the period 1980 – 2001, macroeconomic policies have swung from a centrally controlled economy to a liberalized economy and back to a centrally controlled economy. In general, Zimbabwe's experience suggests that macroeconomic policies have had negative effects on forestry development. Macroeconomic policies have been implemented in a way that has led to widespread deindustrialization of core manufacturing and to the stagnation of agriculture. In addition tensions have grown in the agricultural sector when implementing land reforms. The lay-offs in the manufacturing sector have led people to seek livelihoods in the informal sector or in agriculture which has led to migration of populations to rural areas. This has placed a heavier burden on the fragile ecosystems and the already scarce natural resources in communal areas. There is therefore need to implement sound macroeconomic policies together with complementary measures in order to address difficulties in the forestry sector. The Zimbabwe Science News Volume 36 (1+ 2) 2002, pp. 28-36

Social Science Research Network, 2005

The paper has also benefited from comments by PEP workshop participants, especially Jim Davies. C... more The paper has also benefited from comments by PEP workshop participants, especially Jim Davies. Comments from GTAP 2005 participants and the 10 th Annual African Econometric Society (AES) 2005 are also acknowledged. Suggestions from two anonymous referees are gratefully acknowledged. Any errors remain our own.

Érudit documents and data repository (Érudit Consortium, University of Montreal), Oct 11, 2019

In a first for South Africa, we draw on literature on infrastructure productivity to model dynami... more In a first for South Africa, we draw on literature on infrastructure productivity to model dynamic economywide employment impacts of infrastructure investment funded with different fiscal tools. According to the South African investment plan, the policy will affect the stock of infrastructure as well as the stock of capital of some private and public sectors. Increased government deficit financed infrastructure spending improves GDP and reduces unemployment. However, in the long term, the policy reduces investment and it is not sustainable for South Africa to let its deficit grow unabated. Increased investment spending financed by tax increases has contrasting implications on unemployment. In the long run, unemployment decreases for all types of workers under one of the scenarios. In the short run, only elementary occupation workers benefit from a decrease in unemployment; for the rest, unemployment rises. Findings have immediate policy implications in various policy modelling areas.

Social Science Research Network, 2006

International Review of Environmental and Resource Economics, 2023

Social Science Research Network, 2005

A CGE model of South Africa is used to find the potential for a 'double or triple dividend', if t... more A CGE model of South Africa is used to find the potential for a 'double or triple dividend', if the revenues raised from an energy related environmental tax are recycled into households and industry through lowering existing taxes. Four environmental taxes and three revenue-recycling schemes are compared. The environmental taxes are (i) a tax on greenhouse gas emissions, (ii) a fuel tax, (iii) a tax on electricity use, and (iv) an energy tax. The four taxes are constructed such that they have a comparable effect on emissions. The revenue is recycled through either (i) a direct tax break on both labour and capital, (ii) an indirect tax break to all households, or (iii) a reduction in the price of food. A triple dividend is found when any one of the environmental taxes is recycled through a reduction in food prices.

This case study examines the impacts on poverty and equality of the extended trade liberalisation... more This case study examines the impacts on poverty and equality of the extended trade liberalisation strategy that South Africa has been following since 1994. The paper features an integrated CGE microsimulation model with explicit incorporation of non-market activities and gender decomposition. This makes it possible to assess the effects of trade liberalization on between and withingroup poverty, as well as on gender-disaggregated household production and leisure. The findings reveal that trade liberalization is strongly gender biased against women.

Journal of Energy in Southern Africa, Aug 1, 2005

This paper discusses the procedures and results of constructing a greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions ... more This paper discusses the procedures and results of constructing a greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions inventory for South Africa, using the official national energy balance for 1998. In doing so, the paper offers a snapshot of the South African energy supply and demand profile and encompassing greenhouse gas emissions profiles, disaggregated into 40 economic sectors, for the reference year. For convenience, energy supply and use are reported in both native units and terra joule (TJ), while emissions are expressed in carbon dioxide equivalents and reported in giga-gram (Gg). While carbon dioxide makes an overwhelming contribution to global anthropogenic GHG emissions, the inclusion of methane and nitrous oxide offers considerable richness to the analysis of climate change policies. Applying the energy balances, it was possible to compile a comprehensive emissions inventory using a consistent methodology across all sectors of the economy. The inventory allows the economic analyst to model various economic policies either with fuel as an input to production, or the consumption of fuel or the emissions generated during combustion, as a base of the analysis. The dominant role of coal as a source of energy, with a total primary energy supply (TPES) of 3.3 million TJ or 70 per cent of the total TPES, is clearly shown. Emissions from coal combustion (263 783 Gg of carbon dioxide equivalents or 74.7 per cent of total emissions) are henceforth the largest contributor to total emissions, estimated to be 352 932 Gg carbon dioxide equivalents.

HAL (Le Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe), Oct 31, 2020

Social Science Research Network, 2005

The paper uses a micro-simulation computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to study the impact ... more The paper uses a micro-simulation computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to study the impact on poverty of trade liberalisation in Zimbabwe. The model incorporates 14006 households derived from the 1995 Poverty Assessment Study Survey (PASS). The novelty of this paper is that it is one among a small group of papers that incorporates individual households in the CGE model as opposed to having representative households, allowing for a comprehensive analysis of poverty. The complete removal of tariffs favours exportoriented sectors and all imports increase. Poverty falls in the economy while inequality hardly changes. The results differ between rural and urban areas.

South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences, May 22, 2014

South Africa, as an upper middle-income, resource-intensive developing country with an open econo... more South Africa, as an upper middle-income, resource-intensive developing country with an open economy, has to find innovative ways to combat poverty, promote economic growth and reduce the intensity of resource use, simultaneously. One option is to explore the plausibility of achieving a double dividend by levying a tax on water and energy and recycling the revenue back to the economy by allowing for a reduction in other forms of taxation. According to the double dividend theory it is possible, under some conditions, to achieve both environmental and economic objectives. We investigated such a possibility in the South African economy using an integrated economy/environment CGE model and found that it is indeed possible to achieve such double dividend benefits. Given the prevailing economic and environmental contexts, government should actively search for ways to achieve such dividends. JEL Q43

Exposition au commerce mondial des produits et aux perturbations du marché : impacts sur la crois... more Exposition au commerce mondial des produits et aux perturbations du marché : impacts sur la croissance, la pauvreté et la sécurité alimentaire au Malawi 2 AKADEMIYA L'Expertise que nous avons. L'Afrique que nous voulons.

Oxford University Press eBooks, Nov 11, 2022

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 2009

A dynamic computable general equilibrium model based on the PEP standard model developed by Decal... more A dynamic computable general equilibrium model based on the PEP standard model developed by Decaluwé et al. (2009) is used to evaluate the impacts of the international crisis on the South African economy. However, we have changed some assumptions in order to better represent South African specificities. A major innovation in this regard is the modelling of unemployment and the influence of labour unions on the labour market. Two scenarios encompassing a severe and moderate recession are run. The effects of the crisis on the economy are really quite harsh, even in the moderate recession scenario, both in the short run and the long run. Indeed, the decrease of world prices combined with the drop of world demand lead to a decrease in production for many sectors with consequent laying off of workers. The impact on institutions is also worrying: agents see their income as well as their savings decreasing. The huge drop in firms' savings has a dire impact on total investment while the huge negative impact on government accounts of protracted slow global growth imply tight public budgets for some time to come. Thus, some gains made by the government prior to the crisis may have been reversed by the economic crisis. It is apparent from the results that the impact of the crisis will drag into the long run with the situation still below what it would have been in the absence of a crisis until 2015.

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Jun 1, 2010

This paper reports on a study to provide insights into the magnitude of the shocks associated wit... more This paper reports on a study to provide insights into the magnitude of the shocks associated with the recent global economic crisis in macroeconomic terms in South Africa, the country's capacity to withstand or cushion these shocks, and the extent of fragility in terms of poverty levels and child wellbeing. The analysis combines macroeconomic and micro-economic tools to assess the extent of the crisis' impact on the country. The study finds that the poverty headcount ratio increases little in the moderate crisis scenario, but substantially under the severe scenario. However, under both scenarios there is a relatively successful return to close to the business as usual trend. It is important to note though that under both scenarios, more poverty sensitive measures (the poverty gap ratio and the poverty severity ratio) decline more, and remain in negative territory longer, showing that the major impact of the crisis is on the poorest, and that this impact is most difficult to overcome.

Zimbabwe Science News, 2002

This paper discusses the potential impacts of macroeconomic policies on forestry in Zimbabwe. Ove... more This paper discusses the potential impacts of macroeconomic policies on forestry in Zimbabwe. Over the period 1980 – 2001, macroeconomic policies have swung from a centrally controlled economy to a liberalized economy and back to a centrally controlled economy. In general, Zimbabwe's experience suggests that macroeconomic policies have had negative effects on forestry development. Macroeconomic policies have been implemented in a way that has led to widespread deindustrialization of core manufacturing and to the stagnation of agriculture. In addition tensions have grown in the agricultural sector when implementing land reforms. The lay-offs in the manufacturing sector have led people to seek livelihoods in the informal sector or in agriculture which has led to migration of populations to rural areas. This has placed a heavier burden on the fragile ecosystems and the already scarce natural resources in communal areas. There is therefore need to implement sound macroeconomic policies together with complementary measures in order to address difficulties in the forestry sector. The Zimbabwe Science News Volume 36 (1+ 2) 2002, pp. 28-36