Ralf Fendel - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
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Papers by Ralf Fendel
Applied Economics Letters, Feb 23, 2022
Journal of contextual economics, Feb 1, 1998
This paper analyzes the expectation formation process in Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Switzerland.... more This paper analyzes the expectation formation process in Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Switzerland. We use the Consensus Economic Forecast poll and show that the forecasts are consistent with Taylor-type rules for three countries but not for Norway. This can be attributed to Norway's long period of an exchange rate targetor. Additionally, we provide evidence that the expected long-term inflation rate is consistent with both the actual average inflation rate and the inflation target for all countries. This implies that the professional forecasters understand the different monetary policy strategies among the four countries indicating that all central banks can be regarded as highly credible.
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Aug 1, 2008
Proponents of infation targeting argue that such a strategy directly infuences expectation format... more Proponents of infation targeting argue that such a strategy directly infuences expectation formation processes in financial markets. This paper provides a novel test for the evidence that financial market expectations are formed differently under inflation targeting regimes. Using forecasts for the short-term interest rate, the inflation rate, and output growth for ten emerging markets in Latin-America, central and eastern Europe out of which six economies are inflation targeting economies we estimate expected Taylor-type rules. We find evidence for differences in the expectation formation process in the sense that the well-known Taylor principle fairly holds for countries which adopt an inflation targeting system, while for the other countries it does not.
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Aug 1, 2008
This paper addresses the question whether flnancial market partic- ipants apply the framework of ... more This paper addresses the question whether flnancial market partic- ipants apply the framework of Taylor-type rules in their forecasts for the G7 countries. Therefore, we use the Consensus Economic Forecast poll providing us a unique data set of in∞ation, interest and growth rate forecasts for the time period 1989 { 2007. We provide evidence that Taylor-type rules frameworks are present in forecasts of flnancial markets. Thus, the paper, uses ex-ante data for the estimation of Tay- lor rules. This is novel, since so far only ex-post (revised) or real-time data have been applied.
Global Finance Journal, May 1, 2020
Jahrbucher Fur Nationalokonomie Und Statistik, Sep 3, 2019
This comparative study looks at broad economic developments during the 20 years of the European M... more This comparative study looks at broad economic developments during the 20 years of the European Monetary Union (EMU) and 20 years of the European Monetary System (EMS). We analyze the economic performance by looking at a set of macroeconomic variables. The analysis of macroeconomic performance includes two perspectives: one is internal, i. e. how did the countries perform relative to each other; the other is external, i. e. how did the group of member countries perform vis-à-vis other countries. Overall, the analysis of the two periods suggest that the EMU does not display a macroeconomic development inferior to the EMS period. On the contrary, some crucial macroeconomic indicators point to a greater stability during the EMU period compared to the EMS period.
Applied Economics Letters, Feb 23, 2022
Journal of contextual economics, Feb 1, 1998
This paper analyzes the expectation formation process in Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Switzerland.... more This paper analyzes the expectation formation process in Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Switzerland. We use the Consensus Economic Forecast poll and show that the forecasts are consistent with Taylor-type rules for three countries but not for Norway. This can be attributed to Norway's long period of an exchange rate targetor. Additionally, we provide evidence that the expected long-term inflation rate is consistent with both the actual average inflation rate and the inflation target for all countries. This implies that the professional forecasters understand the different monetary policy strategies among the four countries indicating that all central banks can be regarded as highly credible.
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Aug 1, 2008
Proponents of infation targeting argue that such a strategy directly infuences expectation format... more Proponents of infation targeting argue that such a strategy directly infuences expectation formation processes in financial markets. This paper provides a novel test for the evidence that financial market expectations are formed differently under inflation targeting regimes. Using forecasts for the short-term interest rate, the inflation rate, and output growth for ten emerging markets in Latin-America, central and eastern Europe out of which six economies are inflation targeting economies we estimate expected Taylor-type rules. We find evidence for differences in the expectation formation process in the sense that the well-known Taylor principle fairly holds for countries which adopt an inflation targeting system, while for the other countries it does not.
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Aug 1, 2008
This paper addresses the question whether flnancial market partic- ipants apply the framework of ... more This paper addresses the question whether flnancial market partic- ipants apply the framework of Taylor-type rules in their forecasts for the G7 countries. Therefore, we use the Consensus Economic Forecast poll providing us a unique data set of in∞ation, interest and growth rate forecasts for the time period 1989 { 2007. We provide evidence that Taylor-type rules frameworks are present in forecasts of flnancial markets. Thus, the paper, uses ex-ante data for the estimation of Tay- lor rules. This is novel, since so far only ex-post (revised) or real-time data have been applied.
Global Finance Journal, May 1, 2020
Jahrbucher Fur Nationalokonomie Und Statistik, Sep 3, 2019
This comparative study looks at broad economic developments during the 20 years of the European M... more This comparative study looks at broad economic developments during the 20 years of the European Monetary Union (EMU) and 20 years of the European Monetary System (EMS). We analyze the economic performance by looking at a set of macroeconomic variables. The analysis of macroeconomic performance includes two perspectives: one is internal, i. e. how did the countries perform relative to each other; the other is external, i. e. how did the group of member countries perform vis-à-vis other countries. Overall, the analysis of the two periods suggest that the EMU does not display a macroeconomic development inferior to the EMS period. On the contrary, some crucial macroeconomic indicators point to a greater stability during the EMU period compared to the EMS period.