Robert Keyfitz - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
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Papers by Robert Keyfitz
Business Economics, Apr 1, 2004
World Bank Other Operational Studies, 2000
Journal of International Economics, 2004
This paper examines the extent to which permanent terms-of-trade shocks have an asymmetric effect... more This paper examines the extent to which permanent terms-of-trade shocks have an asymmetric effect on private savings. The first part uses a simple three-period model to show that, if households expect to face binding borrowing constraints in bad states of nature, savings rates will respond asymmetrically to favorable movements in the permanent component of the terms of trade-in contrast to what conventional consumption-smoothing models would predict. The second part tests for the existence of asymmetric effects of terms-of-trade disturbances using an econometric model that controls for various standard determinants of private savings. The results, based on panel data for non-oil commodity exporters of sub-Saharan Africa for the period 19 80-96, indicate that increases in the permanent component of the terms of trade (measured using three alternative filtering techniques) tend indeed be associated with higher rates of private savings.
Prices of internationally traded commodities are notoriously volatile, due in part to market fund... more Prices of internationally traded commodities are notoriously volatile, due in part to market fundamentals, but also in part to exchange rate movements. It is useful to understand the latter clearly as these can both influence and obscure commodity market outcomes. The paper develops a comprehensive model based on a simple, equilibrium approach which, though well known, has not previously been implemented on the present scale. Estimated using pooled regressions, the model incorporates trade of over 200 countries in 33 commodities comprising most of the weight of the World Bank’s primary commodity coverage. A freely available excel version also computes terms of trade and balance of payments impacts at both country and regional levels. Several applications are presented, such as exploring the impact of the euro’s recent appreciation. Exchange rates and commodity prices
Business Economics, Apr 1, 2004
Business Economics, Apr 1, 2004
World Bank Other Operational Studies, 2000
Journal of International Economics, 2004
This paper examines the extent to which permanent terms-of-trade shocks have an asymmetric effect... more This paper examines the extent to which permanent terms-of-trade shocks have an asymmetric effect on private savings. The first part uses a simple three-period model to show that, if households expect to face binding borrowing constraints in bad states of nature, savings rates will respond asymmetrically to favorable movements in the permanent component of the terms of trade-in contrast to what conventional consumption-smoothing models would predict. The second part tests for the existence of asymmetric effects of terms-of-trade disturbances using an econometric model that controls for various standard determinants of private savings. The results, based on panel data for non-oil commodity exporters of sub-Saharan Africa for the period 19 80-96, indicate that increases in the permanent component of the terms of trade (measured using three alternative filtering techniques) tend indeed be associated with higher rates of private savings.
Prices of internationally traded commodities are notoriously volatile, due in part to market fund... more Prices of internationally traded commodities are notoriously volatile, due in part to market fundamentals, but also in part to exchange rate movements. It is useful to understand the latter clearly as these can both influence and obscure commodity market outcomes. The paper develops a comprehensive model based on a simple, equilibrium approach which, though well known, has not previously been implemented on the present scale. Estimated using pooled regressions, the model incorporates trade of over 200 countries in 33 commodities comprising most of the weight of the World Bank’s primary commodity coverage. A freely available excel version also computes terms of trade and balance of payments impacts at both country and regional levels. Several applications are presented, such as exploring the impact of the euro’s recent appreciation. Exchange rates and commodity prices
Business Economics, Apr 1, 2004