Robert Lempert - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Robert Lempert

The effects of climate-related natural hazards pose a significant threat to sustainable developme... more The effects of climate-related natural hazards pose a significant threat to sustainable development in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region and in particular its transportation sector. Risk Management provides an appropriate framework for assessing and mitigating the impacts of climate change and other climate-related natural hazards on transportation systems and choosing actions to enhance their resilience. However, analysts and policymakers involved in transportation planning, policy, and investment face significant challenges in managing the risks triggered by the effects of climate change. Climate change impacts the lifespan of roads, airports, and railroads as they have time horizons that surpass 40 years, thus making it harder (if not impossible) to forecast with confidence all relevant future events that will affect such infrastructure. In addition, the climate has already changed, so the return frequency of storms, for example, and other extreme events may now be dif...

RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and... more RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND ® is a registered trademark. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions or policies of its research sponsors. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Preface Next Generation Environmental Technologies (NGETs) focus on the redesign, at the molecular level, of manufacturing processes and products so as to reduce or eliminate the use of hazardous materials. The potential for such technologies suggests that they may play an important role in a new approach to environmental protection. NGETs thus raise important policy questions, including the range of benefits such technologies have already provided and may in the future provide and the types of actions commensurate with th...

Risk Analysis, 2020

Many of today's most pressing policy challenges are usefully characterized as wicked problems... more Many of today's most pressing policy challenges are usefully characterized as wicked problems. With contested framings parties to a decision disagree not only on potential solutions, but on the nature of the problem they are trying to solve. The quantitative tools of risk and policy analysis, commonly designed to develop and compare choices within a single decision framing, are poorly designed to bring quantitative information into debates with contested framings. This study aims to build on recent advances in decision making under deep uncertainty (DMDU) to demonstrate methods and tools that may help resolve the tension between quantitative decision support and multiworldview approaches for addressing wicked problems. The study employs robust decision making (RDM), one common DMDU method, and a new version of the lake model, a simple and widely used model of a coupled human and natural system, to conduct a stylized analysis that reflects three different worldviews. The RDM anal...

Abstract : In the fall of 1996, RAND researchers conducted a successful proof of concept demonstr... more Abstract : In the fall of 1996, RAND researchers conducted a successful proof of concept demonstration for the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) of new methods for science and technology (S&T) planning. These methods exploit new information technologies in order to (1) improve the quality of the S&T planning process by using online computer assisted decision support tools that make relevant information more easily available to expert panelists meeting over the World Wide Web, and help panelists include and compensate for the effects of uncertainty by treating an S&T plan as a portfolio of technology investments hedged against a wide range of plausible futures. (2) Provide a lasting electronic archive of the expert discussions and other information that go into building an S&T plan. (3) Lower the travel related costs and scheduling constraints of the current planning process by supplementing face to face expert panel meetings with asynchronous meetings over the World Wide Web. The demonstration made use of two new RAND methodologies: HyperForum, a facilitated Web based collaborative exercise, conducted in a carefully crafted, information rich, online environment, and Exploratory Modeling, a new approach to generating systematic, quantitative comparisons among alternative policy decisions without relying on imperfect predictions of the future. This documented briefing describes that demonstration. It should be of interest to decisionmakers responsible for choosing, managing, and justifying portfolios of science and technology research projects in the Department of Defense and other federal agencies, and in the private sector. In addition, it should be informative to those readers interested in how new information technologies can provide new methods for planning and decisionmaking under uncertainty.

Nature Climate Change, 2015

Policymakers know that the risks associated with climate change mean they need to cut greenhouse-... more Policymakers know that the risks associated with climate change mean they need to cut greenhouse-gas emissions. But uncertainty surrounding the likelihood of different scenarios makes choosing specific policies difficult.

Environmental Modelling & Software

Author(s): Lempert, Robert | Abstract: Artificial intelligence (AI) augurs changes in society at ... more Author(s): Lempert, Robert | Abstract: Artificial intelligence (AI) augurs changes in society at least as large as those of the industrial revolution. But much of the policy debate seems narrow – extrapolating current trends and asking how we might manage their rough edges. This essay instead explores how AI might be used to enable fundamentally different future worlds and how one such future might be enabled by AI algorithms with different goals and functions than those most common today.

Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 2021

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2019

Environmental Modelling & Software, 2017