Romero Rocha - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by Romero Rocha
Este artigo é de exclusiva responsabilidade dos autores, não refletindo, necessariamente, a opini... more Este artigo é de exclusiva responsabilidade dos autores, não refletindo, necessariamente, a opinião do BNDES.Inclui bibliografia: p. 187-188 e notas de rodapéThis article presents stylized facts about the funding of the water and sewage sector in Brazil. Using a dataset of investment projects selected for having credit restrictions lifted by the Federal government, it was possible to analyze the financing pattern and the specific characteristics of the BNDES in financing the sector. The results of the analysis point to a concentration of credit at BNDES and Caixa Econômica Federal, as banks capable of offering better rate conditions and, mainly, loans with longer durations. The projects financed by the BNDES, even when considering the type of borrower, size of the investment and other characteristics, tend to have higher survival rates, as well as being of greater amount and have a shorter execution time, which is justified by the different profiles of the institutions.Este artigo a...
The aim of this work is to contribute with the investigation about the demographic externalities ... more The aim of this work is to contribute with the investigation about the demographic externalities of the Conditional Cash Transfer Programs (CCT), in which the quantity of resources is dependent of the quantity of children. The main worry is that these programs could improve the incentives to poor families having more children and become poorest. However, many of these programs require some behavior of households towards the health and schooling outcomes of children. This link with behavior could generate incentives to reduction in fertility and could avoid the poverty trap. So, the effect of this kind of program on fertility is ambiguous. The end of this work is to verify if this kind of program has effect in the probability of a woman having a child and what the signal of this correlation using evidence from the “Bolsa Familia” Brazilian Federal Program. To this end, we tried three different empirical strategies and, in none of them, we found any robust effect of the program on fer...
Co-autor: Rodrigo Reis Soares (PUC-Rio) Resumo Este trabalho tem como objetivo calcular o impacto... more Co-autor: Rodrigo Reis Soares (PUC-Rio) Resumo Este trabalho tem como objetivo calcular o impacto de programas de saúde a nível familiar e comunitário nas reduções de mortalidade que aconteceram nos países em desenvolvimento a partir da década de 1960. Para isto, usaremos as evidências do Programa Saúde da Família (PSF), criado pelo Governo Federal do Brasil em 1994. O PSF é um programa de atenção básica a saúde, com foco na prevenção e na detecção rápida de doenças, no qual unidades de saúde públicas são colocadas a disposição da população com um médico, um enfermeiro e um auxiliar de enfermagem. Além disso, seis agentes comunitários de saúde visitam os cerca de 800 domicílios cadastrados naquela equipe, estabelecendo um vínculo entre as equipes e a população. Calculamos o impacto do programa na redução de mortalidade por faixa etária, por região, por quartil de mortalidade inicial e por causa de morte. O resultado do trabalho aponta para uma redução da taxa de mortalidade nas quatro faixas etárias escolhidas (infantil, de criança, de adultos e de idosos) nos municípios que receberam o programa. Além disso, o efeito parece ter sido maior nos municípios que estavam em piores condições em termos de taxa de mortalidade, nos municípios do Norte e Nordeste e nas causas de morte que dependem mais de atenção básica.
Estudos Econômicos (São Paulo)
Resumo Este artigo analisa os efeitos da entrada em operação de investimentos em saneamento sobre... more Resumo Este artigo analisa os efeitos da entrada em operação de investimentos em saneamento sobre indicadores de morbidade hospitalar nos municípios selecionados para descontingenciamento de crédito pelo Ministério das Cidades. Os municípios obtiveram autorização para tomar crédito em momentos distintos, uma vez que a Secretaria Nacional de Saneamento (SNSA) realizava rodadas de seleções de projetos à medida em que eram liberados recursos do orçamento para descontingenciamento. A fim de estimar os efeitos sobre taxas de internação hospitalar, este artigo utiliza base de dados cedida pela SNSA, que identifica cada projeto selecionado entre 2007 e 2017. A partir dessas informações, estimamos um modelo de diferença-em-diferenças, corrigindo para possível endogeneidade no tempo de execução das obras. Os resultados apontam para importantes efeitos da entrada em operação de investimentos em saneamento básico sobre internações hospitalares, sobretudo de bebês de até 1 ano de idade. Também ...
This paper measures the impact of the Priority Municipalities, a policy that increases monitoring... more This paper measures the impact of the Priority Municipalities, a policy that increases monitoring on municipalities listed, on Brazilian Amazon deforestation. This policy, theoretically, applies a cost to bad environmental behavior in a more centralized way, as the sanction shifts from the household to the municipality level. Anecdotal evidence also suggests that priority status may have generated political pressure for politicians, credit agents, and commodity industry agents. We find an important and negative effect of Priority Municipalities on deforestation. We also find that, when controlling for the monitoring intensity, the priority status has zero effect, which means that the other mechanisms (such as political pressure and other economic sanctions) seem to have no significant effect on deforestation. RESUMO Este trabalho mede o impacto dos Municípios Prioritários, uma política que aumenta a fiscalização nos municípios listados, sobre o desmatamento da Amazônia. Esta política, em tese, aplica um custo para desvios de conduta ambiental de uma forma mais centralizada, já que a sanção passa do nível do estabelecimento ao nível do município. Evidências anedóticas também sugerem que o status de prioridade pode ter gerado pressão política para os políticos, agentes de crédito, e os agentes do setor de commodities. Encontramos um efeito importante e negativo dos municípios prioritários em desmatamento. No entanto, ao controlar pela intensidade no monitoramento, o efeito sobre o desmatamento passa a ser zero, o que significa que os outros mecanismos (como pressão política e outras sanções econômicas) parecem não ter qualquer efeito significativo.
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, Apr 1, 2023
The aim of this paper is to verify if an aging workforce is a burden to the firms, in the sense t... more The aim of this paper is to verify if an aging workforce is a burden to the firms, in the sense that the firm pays more than the marginal productivity for older workers. To do this I calculate the effect of an aging workforce on productivity, and on wages. I find that firm productivity declines with age and with seniority, but wages strongly increase with seniority, although they remain stable with age. This result is consistent with the compensation hypothesis, which says that firms pay less than marginal productivity to younger workers, but compensate them with higher salaries later on.
Since the 1970s, the creation of Rural Settlements with state assistance has been one of several ... more Since the 1970s, the creation of Rural Settlements with state assistance has been one of several strategies by the Federal Government of Brazil to colonize remote regions with low population. Even though the area dedicated to these settlements remained relatively stable for decades, between 2002 and 2014 Rural Settlements in the Amazon region jumped from 220 thousand square kilometers to 376 thousand square kilometers, an increase of 71%. This paper shows that most part of this increase was located in remote areas with low population and in municipalities with high forest coverage. We also use a xed-e ect model to calculate the impact of the Rural Settlements created between 2002 and 2014 on deforestation. We nd that the impact is positive and statistically signi cant. Rural Settlements are responsible for 30% of total deforestation in the Amazon Biome. We also nd that the e ect is heterogeneous, and depends on the type of Rural Settlement, with Rural Settlements types located in re...
Economia Aplicada, 2018
Este trabalho tem como objetivo aprofundar a investigação em relação aos efeitos dos programas co... more Este trabalho tem como objetivo aprofundar a investigação em relação aos efeitos dos programas condicionais de transferência de renda, nos quais a quantidade de recursos transferidos depende do tamanho da família, sobre a fecundidade das mães beneficiárias. O efeito desse tipo de programa é ambíguo. O custo de ter filhos é diminuído, mas aumenta-se o investimento em capital humano. O objetivo deste artigo é verificar se o Programa Bolsa Família teve impacto na probabilidade de a mulher ter filhos e qual o sinal dessa correlação. Para isso, foram testadas três diferentes estratégias empíricas e não foi encontrado efeito robusto do programa na fecundidade em nenhuma delas.
The Economic Journal, 2019
In 2008, the Brazilian government made the concession of rural credit in the Amazon conditional u... more In 2008, the Brazilian government made the concession of rural credit in the Amazon conditional upon stricter requirements as an attempt to curb forest clearings. This article studies the impact of this innovative policy on deforestation. Difference-in-differences estimations based on a panel of municipalities show that the policy change led to a substantial reduction in deforestation, mostly in municipalities where cattle ranching is the leading economic activity. The results suggest that the mechanism underlying these effects was a restriction in access to rural credit, one of the main support mechanisms for agricultural production in Brazil.
Environment and Development Economics, 2019
In 2008, the Brazilian government blacklisted municipalities in the Amazon to better target effor... more In 2008, the Brazilian government blacklisted municipalities in the Amazon to better target efforts to repress deforestation. Not only were law enforcement and monitoring activities intensified, but also economic sanctions and political pressures were imposed on those municipalities. We use a differences-in differences approach to compare deforestation reduction in blacklisted municipalities and non-blacklisted municipalities. We find that: (i) the blacklisting has significantly reduced deforestation; and (ii) this effect was primarily driven by the monitoring and law enforcement channel – there is no effect on agricultural production or credit concessions.
Land Use Policy, 2017
Once driven by large-scale clearings, Amazon deforestation now occurs mostly in small increments.... more Once driven by large-scale clearings, Amazon deforestation now occurs mostly in small increments. Did this result from the emergence of a new group of agents or from a strategic adaptation in the behavior of those who led deforestation in the past? We address this question using georeferenced data on private rural properties and deforestation. We cross property-level and forest clearing data in an empirical setting designed to detect shifts toward clearing patches that were knowingly invisible to the monitoring system. We are therefore able to assess not only whether deforesters were responding strategically to stricter monitoring of deforestation, but also how this response differed across actor types. Results suggest that centralized policy efforts introduced starting in the mid-2000s inhibited medium-and large-scale deforestation, but had heterogeneous effects on small-scale deforestation. Although the relative participation of small deforestation polygons increased in both sample states, the relative participation of smallholders in total state deforestation increased in Pará, while remaining constant in Mato Grosso. We interpret these results as suggestivealbeit not causalevidence that landholders strategically responded to the monitoring system by adapting their forest clearings practices to elude monitoring in both Mato Grosso and Pará. In the latter, however, the increase in smallholders' share of annual deforestation suggests that their clearing practices were relatively less affected by what effectively contained deforestation in large properties. The apparent similarity in scale of deforestation across states conceals relevant baseline differences between the agents engaging in forest clearing in each locality. Tailoring policy to account for such differences could strengthen Brazilian conservation policy.
pelo financiamento deste estudo, e a Michele Gragnolati e Tito Cordela pelos vários comentários q... more pelo financiamento deste estudo, e a Michele Gragnolati e Tito Cordela pelos vários comentários que me fizeram. Todos os erros que permanecerem são de exclusiva responsabilidade minha.
Implications of Population Aging on Growth, Poverty, Public Finance and Service Delivery, 2011
Implications of Population Aging on Growth, Poverty, Public Finance and Service Delivery, 2011
Implications of Population Aging on Growth, Poverty, Public Finance and Service Delivery, 2011
Implications of Population Aging on Growth, Poverty, Public Finance and Service Delivery, 2011
An aging society is a common trend in all countries. Long-term care is a policy that must be impl... more An aging society is a common trend in all countries. Long-term care is a policy that must be implemented in an aging society. Therefore, how to develop an intelligent cloud-based information system to efficiently support long-term care and manage related resources is an important issue. In recent years, open data, artificial intelligence and cloud computing are popular information technologies. This study proposes an Intelligent Cloud-based Health Care Architecture (ICHCA) that is composed of data presentation module, data source module, intelligent module and cloud computing module to facilitate the development of long-term care information systems. This study develops a Cloud Medical Knowledge Platform(CMKP) prototype to verify the feasibility of the proposed ICHCA.
Implications of Population Aging on Growth, Poverty, Public Finance and Service Delivery, 2011
Este artigo é de exclusiva responsabilidade dos autores, não refletindo, necessariamente, a opini... more Este artigo é de exclusiva responsabilidade dos autores, não refletindo, necessariamente, a opinião do BNDES.Inclui bibliografia: p. 187-188 e notas de rodapéThis article presents stylized facts about the funding of the water and sewage sector in Brazil. Using a dataset of investment projects selected for having credit restrictions lifted by the Federal government, it was possible to analyze the financing pattern and the specific characteristics of the BNDES in financing the sector. The results of the analysis point to a concentration of credit at BNDES and Caixa Econômica Federal, as banks capable of offering better rate conditions and, mainly, loans with longer durations. The projects financed by the BNDES, even when considering the type of borrower, size of the investment and other characteristics, tend to have higher survival rates, as well as being of greater amount and have a shorter execution time, which is justified by the different profiles of the institutions.Este artigo a...
The aim of this work is to contribute with the investigation about the demographic externalities ... more The aim of this work is to contribute with the investigation about the demographic externalities of the Conditional Cash Transfer Programs (CCT), in which the quantity of resources is dependent of the quantity of children. The main worry is that these programs could improve the incentives to poor families having more children and become poorest. However, many of these programs require some behavior of households towards the health and schooling outcomes of children. This link with behavior could generate incentives to reduction in fertility and could avoid the poverty trap. So, the effect of this kind of program on fertility is ambiguous. The end of this work is to verify if this kind of program has effect in the probability of a woman having a child and what the signal of this correlation using evidence from the “Bolsa Familia” Brazilian Federal Program. To this end, we tried three different empirical strategies and, in none of them, we found any robust effect of the program on fer...
Co-autor: Rodrigo Reis Soares (PUC-Rio) Resumo Este trabalho tem como objetivo calcular o impacto... more Co-autor: Rodrigo Reis Soares (PUC-Rio) Resumo Este trabalho tem como objetivo calcular o impacto de programas de saúde a nível familiar e comunitário nas reduções de mortalidade que aconteceram nos países em desenvolvimento a partir da década de 1960. Para isto, usaremos as evidências do Programa Saúde da Família (PSF), criado pelo Governo Federal do Brasil em 1994. O PSF é um programa de atenção básica a saúde, com foco na prevenção e na detecção rápida de doenças, no qual unidades de saúde públicas são colocadas a disposição da população com um médico, um enfermeiro e um auxiliar de enfermagem. Além disso, seis agentes comunitários de saúde visitam os cerca de 800 domicílios cadastrados naquela equipe, estabelecendo um vínculo entre as equipes e a população. Calculamos o impacto do programa na redução de mortalidade por faixa etária, por região, por quartil de mortalidade inicial e por causa de morte. O resultado do trabalho aponta para uma redução da taxa de mortalidade nas quatro faixas etárias escolhidas (infantil, de criança, de adultos e de idosos) nos municípios que receberam o programa. Além disso, o efeito parece ter sido maior nos municípios que estavam em piores condições em termos de taxa de mortalidade, nos municípios do Norte e Nordeste e nas causas de morte que dependem mais de atenção básica.
Estudos Econômicos (São Paulo)
Resumo Este artigo analisa os efeitos da entrada em operação de investimentos em saneamento sobre... more Resumo Este artigo analisa os efeitos da entrada em operação de investimentos em saneamento sobre indicadores de morbidade hospitalar nos municípios selecionados para descontingenciamento de crédito pelo Ministério das Cidades. Os municípios obtiveram autorização para tomar crédito em momentos distintos, uma vez que a Secretaria Nacional de Saneamento (SNSA) realizava rodadas de seleções de projetos à medida em que eram liberados recursos do orçamento para descontingenciamento. A fim de estimar os efeitos sobre taxas de internação hospitalar, este artigo utiliza base de dados cedida pela SNSA, que identifica cada projeto selecionado entre 2007 e 2017. A partir dessas informações, estimamos um modelo de diferença-em-diferenças, corrigindo para possível endogeneidade no tempo de execução das obras. Os resultados apontam para importantes efeitos da entrada em operação de investimentos em saneamento básico sobre internações hospitalares, sobretudo de bebês de até 1 ano de idade. Também ...
This paper measures the impact of the Priority Municipalities, a policy that increases monitoring... more This paper measures the impact of the Priority Municipalities, a policy that increases monitoring on municipalities listed, on Brazilian Amazon deforestation. This policy, theoretically, applies a cost to bad environmental behavior in a more centralized way, as the sanction shifts from the household to the municipality level. Anecdotal evidence also suggests that priority status may have generated political pressure for politicians, credit agents, and commodity industry agents. We find an important and negative effect of Priority Municipalities on deforestation. We also find that, when controlling for the monitoring intensity, the priority status has zero effect, which means that the other mechanisms (such as political pressure and other economic sanctions) seem to have no significant effect on deforestation. RESUMO Este trabalho mede o impacto dos Municípios Prioritários, uma política que aumenta a fiscalização nos municípios listados, sobre o desmatamento da Amazônia. Esta política, em tese, aplica um custo para desvios de conduta ambiental de uma forma mais centralizada, já que a sanção passa do nível do estabelecimento ao nível do município. Evidências anedóticas também sugerem que o status de prioridade pode ter gerado pressão política para os políticos, agentes de crédito, e os agentes do setor de commodities. Encontramos um efeito importante e negativo dos municípios prioritários em desmatamento. No entanto, ao controlar pela intensidade no monitoramento, o efeito sobre o desmatamento passa a ser zero, o que significa que os outros mecanismos (como pressão política e outras sanções econômicas) parecem não ter qualquer efeito significativo.
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, Apr 1, 2023
The aim of this paper is to verify if an aging workforce is a burden to the firms, in the sense t... more The aim of this paper is to verify if an aging workforce is a burden to the firms, in the sense that the firm pays more than the marginal productivity for older workers. To do this I calculate the effect of an aging workforce on productivity, and on wages. I find that firm productivity declines with age and with seniority, but wages strongly increase with seniority, although they remain stable with age. This result is consistent with the compensation hypothesis, which says that firms pay less than marginal productivity to younger workers, but compensate them with higher salaries later on.
Since the 1970s, the creation of Rural Settlements with state assistance has been one of several ... more Since the 1970s, the creation of Rural Settlements with state assistance has been one of several strategies by the Federal Government of Brazil to colonize remote regions with low population. Even though the area dedicated to these settlements remained relatively stable for decades, between 2002 and 2014 Rural Settlements in the Amazon region jumped from 220 thousand square kilometers to 376 thousand square kilometers, an increase of 71%. This paper shows that most part of this increase was located in remote areas with low population and in municipalities with high forest coverage. We also use a xed-e ect model to calculate the impact of the Rural Settlements created between 2002 and 2014 on deforestation. We nd that the impact is positive and statistically signi cant. Rural Settlements are responsible for 30% of total deforestation in the Amazon Biome. We also nd that the e ect is heterogeneous, and depends on the type of Rural Settlement, with Rural Settlements types located in re...
Economia Aplicada, 2018
Este trabalho tem como objetivo aprofundar a investigação em relação aos efeitos dos programas co... more Este trabalho tem como objetivo aprofundar a investigação em relação aos efeitos dos programas condicionais de transferência de renda, nos quais a quantidade de recursos transferidos depende do tamanho da família, sobre a fecundidade das mães beneficiárias. O efeito desse tipo de programa é ambíguo. O custo de ter filhos é diminuído, mas aumenta-se o investimento em capital humano. O objetivo deste artigo é verificar se o Programa Bolsa Família teve impacto na probabilidade de a mulher ter filhos e qual o sinal dessa correlação. Para isso, foram testadas três diferentes estratégias empíricas e não foi encontrado efeito robusto do programa na fecundidade em nenhuma delas.
The Economic Journal, 2019
In 2008, the Brazilian government made the concession of rural credit in the Amazon conditional u... more In 2008, the Brazilian government made the concession of rural credit in the Amazon conditional upon stricter requirements as an attempt to curb forest clearings. This article studies the impact of this innovative policy on deforestation. Difference-in-differences estimations based on a panel of municipalities show that the policy change led to a substantial reduction in deforestation, mostly in municipalities where cattle ranching is the leading economic activity. The results suggest that the mechanism underlying these effects was a restriction in access to rural credit, one of the main support mechanisms for agricultural production in Brazil.
Environment and Development Economics, 2019
In 2008, the Brazilian government blacklisted municipalities in the Amazon to better target effor... more In 2008, the Brazilian government blacklisted municipalities in the Amazon to better target efforts to repress deforestation. Not only were law enforcement and monitoring activities intensified, but also economic sanctions and political pressures were imposed on those municipalities. We use a differences-in differences approach to compare deforestation reduction in blacklisted municipalities and non-blacklisted municipalities. We find that: (i) the blacklisting has significantly reduced deforestation; and (ii) this effect was primarily driven by the monitoring and law enforcement channel – there is no effect on agricultural production or credit concessions.
Land Use Policy, 2017
Once driven by large-scale clearings, Amazon deforestation now occurs mostly in small increments.... more Once driven by large-scale clearings, Amazon deforestation now occurs mostly in small increments. Did this result from the emergence of a new group of agents or from a strategic adaptation in the behavior of those who led deforestation in the past? We address this question using georeferenced data on private rural properties and deforestation. We cross property-level and forest clearing data in an empirical setting designed to detect shifts toward clearing patches that were knowingly invisible to the monitoring system. We are therefore able to assess not only whether deforesters were responding strategically to stricter monitoring of deforestation, but also how this response differed across actor types. Results suggest that centralized policy efforts introduced starting in the mid-2000s inhibited medium-and large-scale deforestation, but had heterogeneous effects on small-scale deforestation. Although the relative participation of small deforestation polygons increased in both sample states, the relative participation of smallholders in total state deforestation increased in Pará, while remaining constant in Mato Grosso. We interpret these results as suggestivealbeit not causalevidence that landholders strategically responded to the monitoring system by adapting their forest clearings practices to elude monitoring in both Mato Grosso and Pará. In the latter, however, the increase in smallholders' share of annual deforestation suggests that their clearing practices were relatively less affected by what effectively contained deforestation in large properties. The apparent similarity in scale of deforestation across states conceals relevant baseline differences between the agents engaging in forest clearing in each locality. Tailoring policy to account for such differences could strengthen Brazilian conservation policy.
pelo financiamento deste estudo, e a Michele Gragnolati e Tito Cordela pelos vários comentários q... more pelo financiamento deste estudo, e a Michele Gragnolati e Tito Cordela pelos vários comentários que me fizeram. Todos os erros que permanecerem são de exclusiva responsabilidade minha.
Implications of Population Aging on Growth, Poverty, Public Finance and Service Delivery, 2011
Implications of Population Aging on Growth, Poverty, Public Finance and Service Delivery, 2011
Implications of Population Aging on Growth, Poverty, Public Finance and Service Delivery, 2011
Implications of Population Aging on Growth, Poverty, Public Finance and Service Delivery, 2011
An aging society is a common trend in all countries. Long-term care is a policy that must be impl... more An aging society is a common trend in all countries. Long-term care is a policy that must be implemented in an aging society. Therefore, how to develop an intelligent cloud-based information system to efficiently support long-term care and manage related resources is an important issue. In recent years, open data, artificial intelligence and cloud computing are popular information technologies. This study proposes an Intelligent Cloud-based Health Care Architecture (ICHCA) that is composed of data presentation module, data source module, intelligent module and cloud computing module to facilitate the development of long-term care information systems. This study develops a Cloud Medical Knowledge Platform(CMKP) prototype to verify the feasibility of the proposed ICHCA.
Implications of Population Aging on Growth, Poverty, Public Finance and Service Delivery, 2011