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Papers by Ron Nielsen

Journal of Economic and Social Thought, Dec 28, 2017

New interpretation of the Anthropocene is presented, the interpretation based on the rigorous ana... more New interpretation of the Anthropocene is presented, the interpretation based on the rigorous analysis of the growth of human population and of economic growth in the past 2,000,000 years, which are found to have been hyperbolic. The Anthropocene appears to transcend the geological epochs of Pleistocene and Holocene. Anthropogenic impacts evolved over a long time on the canvas of hyperbolic growth of population. There were probably various stages of the Anthropocene in the past 2,000,000 years or even over a longer time. The current stage is distinctly different because now, for the first time in human existence, we are shaping our global future and even the future of our planet. This modern stage of the Anthropocene is characterised by the rapid growth of population, rapid economic growth, rapid consumption of natural resources and rapidly increasing impacts on the environment. All these features can be easily explained by characteristic properties of hyperbolic growth. Hyperbolic distributions are slow over a long time and fast over a short time. The origin of the Anthropocene can be explained as the natural consequence of hyperbolic growth of population. The mechanism of the Anthropocene can be also explained by referring to the mechanism of the growth of population. The beginning of the current stage of the Anthropocene is difficult or maybe even impossible to determine because anthropogenic impacts are likely to have been increasing monotonically. The future of the Anthropocene, which is also our future, is uncertain because it is dictated by many critical anthropogenic trends, but notably because the size of the world population is predicted to continue to increase at least until the end of the current century to a possibly unsustainable level and because the world economic growth follows now an unsustainable trajectory. Effects of the current human activities might affect global ecosystems for a long time into the future but we might not be there to see them.

arXiv (Cornell University), Dec 5, 2016

Volume I of two. This document could be of interest to anyone who wants to have a comprehensive i... more Volume I of two. This document could be of interest to anyone who wants to have a comprehensive inside information about the research in nuclear physics from its early beginnings to later years. It describes highlights of my research work from the late 1950s to the late 1980s, during the best years of nuclear research, when this field of study was wide opened for its exploration. It presents a panorama of experimental and theoretical methods used in the study of nuclear reactions (their mechanism and their application to the study of nuclear structure), the panorama ranging from simple detection techniques used in the early research to more complicated in later years, from simple theoretical interpretations to more complicated descriptions. This document describes my research work in Poland, Australia, Switzerland and Germany using various particle accelerators and a wide range of experimental and theoretical techniques. It presents a typical cross section of experimental and theoretical work in the early and later stages of nuclear research in the field of nuclear reactions.

arXiv (Cornell University), Sep 6, 2013

Published evidence for the human-mediated extinction of megafauna is examined and is found to be ... more Published evidence for the human-mediated extinction of megafauna is examined and is found to be unsubstantiated. It is shown that the claimed evidence is not based on data describing the growth of human population but on the fabricated data. However, even these fabricated data, which were claimed to support the human-induced extinction of megafauna, contradict this claim. The belief in the human-induced extinction of megafauna appears to be so strong that even contradicting evidence based on the fabricated data is interpreted as the evidence supporting this belief.

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Feb 1, 2016

One of the fundamental postulates of the Unified Growth Theory is the claimed existence of three ... more One of the fundamental postulates of the Unified Growth Theory is the claimed existence of three distinctly different regimes of economic growth governed by three distinctly different mechanisms of growth. However, Galor also proposed that the timing of these regimes is different for developed countries and for lessdeveloped countries. Africa is the perfect example of economic growth in lessdeveloped countries. The data used by Galor, but never properly investigated, are now analysed. They turn out to be in dramatic contradiction of this theory.

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Oct 1, 2015

Mathematical methods of analysis of data and of predicting growth are discussed. The starting poi... more Mathematical methods of analysis of data and of predicting growth are discussed. The starting point is the analysis of the growth rates, which can be expressed as a function of time or as a function of the size of the growing entity. Application of these methods is illustrated using the world economic growth but they can be applied to any other type of growth.

arXiv (Cornell University), Nov 20, 2013

The Unified Growth Theory is a story based firmly on illusions created by hyperbolic distribution... more The Unified Growth Theory is a story based firmly on illusions created by hyperbolic distributions. The three stages of growth (Malthusian Regime, Post-Malthusian Regime and Modern Growth Regime) did not exist. The great divergence and the abrupt take-off never happened. All elaborate explanations revolving around these phantom features represent an interesting story but they are scientifically unacceptable and, therefore, they do not explain the economic growth. The Industrial Revolution had no effect on the economic growth. The data clearly indicate that the economic growth was not as complicated and untidy as incorrectly described by the Unified Growth Theory but elegantly simple.

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, May 1, 2016

Data describing historical economic growth are analysed. Included in the analysis is the world an... more Data describing historical economic growth are analysed. Included in the analysis is the world and regional economic growth. The analysis demonstrates that historical economic growth had natural tendency to follow hyperbolic distributions. Parameters describing hyperbolic distributions have been determined. A search for takeoffs from stagnation to growth produced negative results. This analysis throws a new light on the interpretation of the mechanism of the historical economic growth and suggests new lines of research.

Journal of Economic and Social Thought, Jun 18, 2017

Rigorous analysis of demographic catastrophes shows that, individually, they were too weak to sha... more Rigorous analysis of demographic catastrophes shows that, individually, they were too weak to shape the growth of human population and of the associated economic growth. On average, only 6.5% of all major demographic catastrophes, associated with the death toll larger than or equal to one million, were potentially strong enough to cause perhaps a minor change in the growth trajectory of the world population, but as shown by the population data, they did not produce any noticeable disturbance. The absence of impacts of demographic catastrophes on the growth of population can be explained not only by their low relative intensity but also by the strong and efficient regenerating process recorded for the first time by Malthus. There was, however, one unusual event manifested in the convergence of five, major demographic catastrophes. They have caused a minor and short-lasting change in the growth trajectory of the world population, which, however, was soon counteracted by the process of regeneration. This analysis shows that the dominant force controlling the growth of human population was too strong to be influenced in any substantial way by accidental forces. As explained in an earlier publication, this strong and dominant force driving the growth of population was the force of procreation, which was approximately constant per person, the force expressed as a difference between the everpresent, biologically-controlled, force of sex drive and the ever-present and also biologically-controlled process of aging and dying.

Episodes, Sep 15, 2021

Anthropogenic indicators have been closely inspected to determine whether they can be used in sup... more Anthropogenic indicators have been closely inspected to determine whether they can be used in support of the concept of the Anthropocene as a new geological epoch and of its proposed beginning around 1950 CE (Common Era), which is supposed to be marked by intensifications of human activities and impacts around that time. Data show that there were no systematic intensifications in growth trajectories describing anthropogenic indicators but there were decelerations suggesting that anthropogenic forces are not as strong as expected and, consequently, that they are probably not strong enough to have unequivocal stratigraphic manifestations of geological transition. Analysis of anthropogenic data suggests that the Anthropocene is not a new geological epoch.

Journal of Economics Bibliography, Sep 18, 2016

Impacts of Malthusian positive checks are investigated using data compiled by the United Nations ... more Impacts of Malthusian positive checks are investigated using data compiled by the United Nations Development Program. We show how the intensity of Malthusian positive checks are correlated with indicators describing the standard of living such as ecological footprint, income per capita, severe poverty, access to pure water and access to sanitation facilities. We then show that mortality increases exponentially with the intensity of Malthusian positive checks (adult mortality, under-five mortality, maternal mortality and deaths by polluted water). However, total fertility rate also increases exponentially. One of the important results of our analysis is that the growth rate and the rate of natural increase are directly proportional to the intensity of Malthusian positive checks. The regenerating impacts triggered by Malthusian positive checks do not just keep the growth undisturbedthey stimulate growth and make it even faster. Using data for Africa, we also show that while the death rate increases with the intensity of hunger, total fertility rate, birth rate and the rate of natural increase also increase. Records from China also show that Malthusian positive checks of wars and famines triggered the intensified growth of population. Thus, contrary to the generally promoted interpretations, hunger and famines do not necessarily suppress the growth of population. Similar patterns of stressinduced growth are also observed in nature. This study is closely related to the problem of controlling the growth of human population.

In order to control the growth of human population it is helpful to understand correctly the mech... more In order to control the growth of human population it is helpful to understand correctly the mechanism of growth, and the first essential step is to investigate current interpretations and reject any unscientific explanations. One of such popular but questionable interpretations is the concept of the Epoch of Malthusian Stagnation. We discuss its origin, narrative and claims. We explain why this concept is scientifically unacceptable. This investigation questions also the closely-related Demographic Transition Theory, whose essential component is the assumed mechanism of Malthusian stagnation for the first stage of growth. The work of Malthus was the first documented attempt to understand and explain human population dynamics. Considering the time it was written, it was a notable achievement, but it should have been developed further into a better-structured scientific paradigm. The first tentative steps Malthus worked under difficult conditions because he did not have access to the vast amount of information available to us. His pioneering work is important because he has pointed out to the limits of growth and warned against the danger of the excessive growth of human population. He imagined that food production is linear but that the growth of human population exponential, at least in principle, because according to him it is also controlled and shaped by positive and preventive checks. Malthus does not write much about the preventive checks, which he imagines only as a prudent postponement of marriage, but he elaborates a little more about the positive checks. Famine seems to be the last, the most dreadful resource of nature. The power of population is so superior to the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man, that premature death must in some shape or other visit the human race. The vices of mankind are active and able ministers of depopulation. They are the precursors in the great army of destruction; and often finish the dreadful work themselves. But should they fail in this war of extermination, sickly seasons, epidemics, pestilence, and plague, advance in terrific array, and sweep off their thousands and ten thousands. Should success be still incomplete, gigantic inevitable famine stalks in the rear, and with one mighty blow levels the population with the food of the world.

Journal of Economics Library, Mar 18, 2016

Data describing historical economic growth are analysed. Included in the analysis is the world an... more Data describing historical economic growth are analysed. Included in the analysis is the world and regional economic growth. The analysis demonstrates that historical economic growth had natural tendency to follow hyperbolic distributions. Parameters describing hyperbolic distributions have been determined. A search for takeoffs from stagnation to growth produced negative results. This analysis throws a new light on the interpretation of the mechanism of the historical economic growth and suggests new lines of research.

arXiv (Cornell University), Sep 23, 2013

Computer simulations carried out by Alroy (2001) are examined. Contrary to the claim of their Aut... more Computer simulations carried out by Alroy (2001) are examined. Contrary to the claim of their Author, there is no convincing evidence that the extinction of megafauna was caused by humans. Intentionally or unintentionally, attempt was made to force the human-induced extinction of megafauna by assuming an absurdly fast growth of the hypothetical human population in North America. The assumed growth rate was around two-orders of magnitude larger than normally expected. It is well known that the past growth of human population was slow, but in these simulations, the growth of the hypothetical human population was unreasonably fast. However, even under this unreasonable assumption about the growth of human population, computer simulations do not support the postulate of human-assisted extinction of megafauna because there is no clear correlation between the growth of the hypothetical human population and the distributions describing the decline in the population of megafauna.

arXiv (Cornell University), Jun 18, 2016

Galor discovered many mysteries of the growth process. He lists them in his Unified Growth Theory... more Galor discovered many mysteries of the growth process. He lists them in his Unified Growth Theory and wonders how they can be explained. Close inspection of his mysteries reveals that they are of his own creation. They do not exist. He created them by his habitually distorted presentation of data. One of his self-created mysteries is the mystery of the alleged sudden spurt in the growth rate of income per capita. This sudden spurt never happened. In order to understand the growth rate of income per capita, its mathematical properties are now explored and explained. The explanation is illustrated using the historical world economic growth. Galor also wonders about the sudden spurt in the growth rate of population. We show that this sudden spurt was also created by the distorted presentation of data. The mechanism of the historical economic growth and of the growth of human population is yet to be explained but it would be unproductive to try to explain the non-existing and self-created mysteries of the growth process described in the scientifically unacceptable Unified Growth Theory. However, the problem is much deeper than just the examination of this theory. Demographic Growth Theory is based on the incorrect but deeply entrenched postulates developed by accretion over many years and now generally accepted in the economic and demographic research, postulates revolving around the concept of Malthusian stagnation and around a transition from stagnation to growth. The study presented here and earlier similar publications show that these postulates need to be replaced by interpretations based on the mathematical analysis of data and on the correct understanding of hyperbolic distributions.

arXiv (Cornell University), Dec 10, 2015

One of the fundamental postulates of the Unified Growth Theory is the claimed existence of three ... more One of the fundamental postulates of the Unified Growth Theory is the claimed existence of three distinctly different regimes of economic growth governed by three distinctly different mechanisms of growth. However, Galor also proposed that the timing of these regimes is different for developed countries and for lessdeveloped countries. Africa is the perfect example of economic growth in lessdeveloped countries. The data used by Galor, but never properly investigated, are now analysed. They turn out to be in dramatic contradiction of this theory.

Applied mathematics, 2014

A simple but useful method of analysis of hyperbolic processes is presented and its application i... more A simple but useful method of analysis of hyperbolic processes is presented and its application is illustrated by using the growth of human population in Africa, the economic growth in Western Europe and the examination of the fundamental postulates of the Unified Growth Theory. It is shown how this method can revolutionize the interpretation of the historical economic growth and the growth of human population and how it can help to understand the current growth. Examples used to illustrate the application of this method show that, contrary to the accepted interpretations, the Industrial Revolution and the accompanying unprecedented technological development had no impact on the economic growth even in Western Europe and that Galor's Unified Growth Theory fails the scientific test.

Episodes, Jun 1, 2021

Is the Anthropocene a new geological epoch and can its beginning be determined? The so-called Gre... more Is the Anthropocene a new geological epoch and can its beginning be determined? The so-called Great Acceleration data, used repeatedly in support of the concept of the Anthropocene as a new geological epoch, are closely examined. They are supposed to be characterised by a clear intensification of growth (sharp increase, acceleration) in the mid-20th century. They revealed the opposite effect: they are characterised by decelerations either at precisely the same time when accelerations were expected or over the entire range of data, the phenomenon described here as the Great Deceleration. Implications of this study are two-folds: (1) contrary to expectations, these data cannot be used to determine the beginning of the Anthropocene and (2) the common deceleration questions whether humans alone can cause a transition to a new geological epoch. Investigation of the growth of the genus Homo in the past 2,000,000 years suggests that what is now called the Anthropocene could be just a natural continuation of the gradual evolution of human activities and impacts over a long time, without a sudden intensification and without a convincing evidence for a transition to a new geological epoch.

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Sep 1, 2017

Economic growth and the growth of human population in the past 2,000,000 years are extensively ex... more Economic growth and the growth of human population in the past 2,000,000 years are extensively examined. Data are found to be in a clear contradiction of the currently accepted explanations of the mechanism of growth, which revolve around two fundamental but incorrect doctrines: (1) the doctrine of stagnation (inappropriately labelled also as Malthusian stagnation, because Malthus never claimed that his positive checks would cause a long-lasting and widespread stagnation) and (2) the doctrine of explosion described also as a takeoff, sprint, spike or by other similar attributes. These doctrines and other related postulates are contradicted even by precisely the same data, which are used in the economic research and by the research results published in a prestigious scientific journal as early as in 1960. The generally accepted explanations are not based on a rigorous analysis of data but on impressions created by the easily misleading features of hyperbolic distributions. Two leading theories: the Demographic Transitions Theory (or Model) and the Unified Growth Theory are fundamentally incorrect. Descriptions of the past socioeconomic conditions are not questioned. They might have been harsh, difficult and primitive but they are not reflected in the growth trajectories. They did not create stagnation in the economic growth and in the growth of population. Likewise, impacts of the Industrial Revolution on many aspects of life are not questioned. It is only demonstrated that this event had absolutely no impact on shaping growth trajectories. A general law of growth is formulated and used to explain the mechanism of growth of human population and of economic growth. The growth was predominantly hyperbolic. Such a growth is described by exceptionally simple mathematical function and the explanation of the mechanism of growth turns out to be also simple.

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Mar 1, 2016

Historical economic growth in Latin America is analysed using the data of Maddison. Unified Growt... more Historical economic growth in Latin America is analysed using the data of Maddison. Unified Growth Theory is found to be contradicted by these data in the same way as it is contradicted by the economic growth in Africa, Asia, former USSR, Western Europe, Eastern Europe and by the world economic growth. Paradoxically, Unified Growth Theory is repeatedly and consistently contradicted by the same data, which were used, but never properly analysed, during the formulation of this theory. Unified Growth Theory does not explain the mechanism of the economic growth because it explains features contradicted by data. This theory is based fundamentally on the unfortunate lack of understanding of the properties of hyperbolic distribution and on the unscientific analysis of data. There was no transition from stagnation to growth at the end of the alleged Malthusian regime because the economic growth was hyperbolic. There was no escape from Malthusian trap because there was no trap. There was no takeoff. On the contrary, at the time of the alleged takeoff economic growth started to be diverted to a slower trajectory. Unified Growth Theory is dissociated from the reality. This theory needs to be revised or replaced. In its present form, it is a collection of irrelevant stories based on impressions and on the unscientific use of data.

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Feb 1, 2016

Historical economic growth in the countries of the former USSR is analysed. It is shown that Unif... more Historical economic growth in the countries of the former USSR is analysed. It is shown that Unified Growth Theory is contradicted by the data, which were used, but not analysed, during the formulation of this theory. Unified Growth Theory does not explain the mechanism of economic growth. It explains the mechanism of Malthusian stagnation, which did not exist and it explains the mechanism of the transition from stagnation to growth that did not happen. Unified Growth Theory is full of stories but it is hard to decide which of them are reliable because they are based on unprofessional examination of data. The data show that the economic growth in the former USSR was never stagnant but hyperbolic. Industrial Revolution did not boost the economic growth in the former USSR. Unified Growth Theory needs to be revised or replaced by a reliable theory to reconcile it with data and to avoid creating the unwarranted sense of security about the current economic growth.

Journal of Economic and Social Thought, Dec 28, 2017

New interpretation of the Anthropocene is presented, the interpretation based on the rigorous ana... more New interpretation of the Anthropocene is presented, the interpretation based on the rigorous analysis of the growth of human population and of economic growth in the past 2,000,000 years, which are found to have been hyperbolic. The Anthropocene appears to transcend the geological epochs of Pleistocene and Holocene. Anthropogenic impacts evolved over a long time on the canvas of hyperbolic growth of population. There were probably various stages of the Anthropocene in the past 2,000,000 years or even over a longer time. The current stage is distinctly different because now, for the first time in human existence, we are shaping our global future and even the future of our planet. This modern stage of the Anthropocene is characterised by the rapid growth of population, rapid economic growth, rapid consumption of natural resources and rapidly increasing impacts on the environment. All these features can be easily explained by characteristic properties of hyperbolic growth. Hyperbolic distributions are slow over a long time and fast over a short time. The origin of the Anthropocene can be explained as the natural consequence of hyperbolic growth of population. The mechanism of the Anthropocene can be also explained by referring to the mechanism of the growth of population. The beginning of the current stage of the Anthropocene is difficult or maybe even impossible to determine because anthropogenic impacts are likely to have been increasing monotonically. The future of the Anthropocene, which is also our future, is uncertain because it is dictated by many critical anthropogenic trends, but notably because the size of the world population is predicted to continue to increase at least until the end of the current century to a possibly unsustainable level and because the world economic growth follows now an unsustainable trajectory. Effects of the current human activities might affect global ecosystems for a long time into the future but we might not be there to see them.

arXiv (Cornell University), Dec 5, 2016

Volume I of two. This document could be of interest to anyone who wants to have a comprehensive i... more Volume I of two. This document could be of interest to anyone who wants to have a comprehensive inside information about the research in nuclear physics from its early beginnings to later years. It describes highlights of my research work from the late 1950s to the late 1980s, during the best years of nuclear research, when this field of study was wide opened for its exploration. It presents a panorama of experimental and theoretical methods used in the study of nuclear reactions (their mechanism and their application to the study of nuclear structure), the panorama ranging from simple detection techniques used in the early research to more complicated in later years, from simple theoretical interpretations to more complicated descriptions. This document describes my research work in Poland, Australia, Switzerland and Germany using various particle accelerators and a wide range of experimental and theoretical techniques. It presents a typical cross section of experimental and theoretical work in the early and later stages of nuclear research in the field of nuclear reactions.

arXiv (Cornell University), Sep 6, 2013

Published evidence for the human-mediated extinction of megafauna is examined and is found to be ... more Published evidence for the human-mediated extinction of megafauna is examined and is found to be unsubstantiated. It is shown that the claimed evidence is not based on data describing the growth of human population but on the fabricated data. However, even these fabricated data, which were claimed to support the human-induced extinction of megafauna, contradict this claim. The belief in the human-induced extinction of megafauna appears to be so strong that even contradicting evidence based on the fabricated data is interpreted as the evidence supporting this belief.

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Feb 1, 2016

One of the fundamental postulates of the Unified Growth Theory is the claimed existence of three ... more One of the fundamental postulates of the Unified Growth Theory is the claimed existence of three distinctly different regimes of economic growth governed by three distinctly different mechanisms of growth. However, Galor also proposed that the timing of these regimes is different for developed countries and for lessdeveloped countries. Africa is the perfect example of economic growth in lessdeveloped countries. The data used by Galor, but never properly investigated, are now analysed. They turn out to be in dramatic contradiction of this theory.

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Oct 1, 2015

Mathematical methods of analysis of data and of predicting growth are discussed. The starting poi... more Mathematical methods of analysis of data and of predicting growth are discussed. The starting point is the analysis of the growth rates, which can be expressed as a function of time or as a function of the size of the growing entity. Application of these methods is illustrated using the world economic growth but they can be applied to any other type of growth.

arXiv (Cornell University), Nov 20, 2013

The Unified Growth Theory is a story based firmly on illusions created by hyperbolic distribution... more The Unified Growth Theory is a story based firmly on illusions created by hyperbolic distributions. The three stages of growth (Malthusian Regime, Post-Malthusian Regime and Modern Growth Regime) did not exist. The great divergence and the abrupt take-off never happened. All elaborate explanations revolving around these phantom features represent an interesting story but they are scientifically unacceptable and, therefore, they do not explain the economic growth. The Industrial Revolution had no effect on the economic growth. The data clearly indicate that the economic growth was not as complicated and untidy as incorrectly described by the Unified Growth Theory but elegantly simple.

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, May 1, 2016

Data describing historical economic growth are analysed. Included in the analysis is the world an... more Data describing historical economic growth are analysed. Included in the analysis is the world and regional economic growth. The analysis demonstrates that historical economic growth had natural tendency to follow hyperbolic distributions. Parameters describing hyperbolic distributions have been determined. A search for takeoffs from stagnation to growth produced negative results. This analysis throws a new light on the interpretation of the mechanism of the historical economic growth and suggests new lines of research.

Journal of Economic and Social Thought, Jun 18, 2017

Rigorous analysis of demographic catastrophes shows that, individually, they were too weak to sha... more Rigorous analysis of demographic catastrophes shows that, individually, they were too weak to shape the growth of human population and of the associated economic growth. On average, only 6.5% of all major demographic catastrophes, associated with the death toll larger than or equal to one million, were potentially strong enough to cause perhaps a minor change in the growth trajectory of the world population, but as shown by the population data, they did not produce any noticeable disturbance. The absence of impacts of demographic catastrophes on the growth of population can be explained not only by their low relative intensity but also by the strong and efficient regenerating process recorded for the first time by Malthus. There was, however, one unusual event manifested in the convergence of five, major demographic catastrophes. They have caused a minor and short-lasting change in the growth trajectory of the world population, which, however, was soon counteracted by the process of regeneration. This analysis shows that the dominant force controlling the growth of human population was too strong to be influenced in any substantial way by accidental forces. As explained in an earlier publication, this strong and dominant force driving the growth of population was the force of procreation, which was approximately constant per person, the force expressed as a difference between the everpresent, biologically-controlled, force of sex drive and the ever-present and also biologically-controlled process of aging and dying.

Episodes, Sep 15, 2021

Anthropogenic indicators have been closely inspected to determine whether they can be used in sup... more Anthropogenic indicators have been closely inspected to determine whether they can be used in support of the concept of the Anthropocene as a new geological epoch and of its proposed beginning around 1950 CE (Common Era), which is supposed to be marked by intensifications of human activities and impacts around that time. Data show that there were no systematic intensifications in growth trajectories describing anthropogenic indicators but there were decelerations suggesting that anthropogenic forces are not as strong as expected and, consequently, that they are probably not strong enough to have unequivocal stratigraphic manifestations of geological transition. Analysis of anthropogenic data suggests that the Anthropocene is not a new geological epoch.

Journal of Economics Bibliography, Sep 18, 2016

Impacts of Malthusian positive checks are investigated using data compiled by the United Nations ... more Impacts of Malthusian positive checks are investigated using data compiled by the United Nations Development Program. We show how the intensity of Malthusian positive checks are correlated with indicators describing the standard of living such as ecological footprint, income per capita, severe poverty, access to pure water and access to sanitation facilities. We then show that mortality increases exponentially with the intensity of Malthusian positive checks (adult mortality, under-five mortality, maternal mortality and deaths by polluted water). However, total fertility rate also increases exponentially. One of the important results of our analysis is that the growth rate and the rate of natural increase are directly proportional to the intensity of Malthusian positive checks. The regenerating impacts triggered by Malthusian positive checks do not just keep the growth undisturbedthey stimulate growth and make it even faster. Using data for Africa, we also show that while the death rate increases with the intensity of hunger, total fertility rate, birth rate and the rate of natural increase also increase. Records from China also show that Malthusian positive checks of wars and famines triggered the intensified growth of population. Thus, contrary to the generally promoted interpretations, hunger and famines do not necessarily suppress the growth of population. Similar patterns of stressinduced growth are also observed in nature. This study is closely related to the problem of controlling the growth of human population.

In order to control the growth of human population it is helpful to understand correctly the mech... more In order to control the growth of human population it is helpful to understand correctly the mechanism of growth, and the first essential step is to investigate current interpretations and reject any unscientific explanations. One of such popular but questionable interpretations is the concept of the Epoch of Malthusian Stagnation. We discuss its origin, narrative and claims. We explain why this concept is scientifically unacceptable. This investigation questions also the closely-related Demographic Transition Theory, whose essential component is the assumed mechanism of Malthusian stagnation for the first stage of growth. The work of Malthus was the first documented attempt to understand and explain human population dynamics. Considering the time it was written, it was a notable achievement, but it should have been developed further into a better-structured scientific paradigm. The first tentative steps Malthus worked under difficult conditions because he did not have access to the vast amount of information available to us. His pioneering work is important because he has pointed out to the limits of growth and warned against the danger of the excessive growth of human population. He imagined that food production is linear but that the growth of human population exponential, at least in principle, because according to him it is also controlled and shaped by positive and preventive checks. Malthus does not write much about the preventive checks, which he imagines only as a prudent postponement of marriage, but he elaborates a little more about the positive checks. Famine seems to be the last, the most dreadful resource of nature. The power of population is so superior to the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man, that premature death must in some shape or other visit the human race. The vices of mankind are active and able ministers of depopulation. They are the precursors in the great army of destruction; and often finish the dreadful work themselves. But should they fail in this war of extermination, sickly seasons, epidemics, pestilence, and plague, advance in terrific array, and sweep off their thousands and ten thousands. Should success be still incomplete, gigantic inevitable famine stalks in the rear, and with one mighty blow levels the population with the food of the world.

Journal of Economics Library, Mar 18, 2016

Data describing historical economic growth are analysed. Included in the analysis is the world an... more Data describing historical economic growth are analysed. Included in the analysis is the world and regional economic growth. The analysis demonstrates that historical economic growth had natural tendency to follow hyperbolic distributions. Parameters describing hyperbolic distributions have been determined. A search for takeoffs from stagnation to growth produced negative results. This analysis throws a new light on the interpretation of the mechanism of the historical economic growth and suggests new lines of research.

arXiv (Cornell University), Sep 23, 2013

Computer simulations carried out by Alroy (2001) are examined. Contrary to the claim of their Aut... more Computer simulations carried out by Alroy (2001) are examined. Contrary to the claim of their Author, there is no convincing evidence that the extinction of megafauna was caused by humans. Intentionally or unintentionally, attempt was made to force the human-induced extinction of megafauna by assuming an absurdly fast growth of the hypothetical human population in North America. The assumed growth rate was around two-orders of magnitude larger than normally expected. It is well known that the past growth of human population was slow, but in these simulations, the growth of the hypothetical human population was unreasonably fast. However, even under this unreasonable assumption about the growth of human population, computer simulations do not support the postulate of human-assisted extinction of megafauna because there is no clear correlation between the growth of the hypothetical human population and the distributions describing the decline in the population of megafauna.

arXiv (Cornell University), Jun 18, 2016

Galor discovered many mysteries of the growth process. He lists them in his Unified Growth Theory... more Galor discovered many mysteries of the growth process. He lists them in his Unified Growth Theory and wonders how they can be explained. Close inspection of his mysteries reveals that they are of his own creation. They do not exist. He created them by his habitually distorted presentation of data. One of his self-created mysteries is the mystery of the alleged sudden spurt in the growth rate of income per capita. This sudden spurt never happened. In order to understand the growth rate of income per capita, its mathematical properties are now explored and explained. The explanation is illustrated using the historical world economic growth. Galor also wonders about the sudden spurt in the growth rate of population. We show that this sudden spurt was also created by the distorted presentation of data. The mechanism of the historical economic growth and of the growth of human population is yet to be explained but it would be unproductive to try to explain the non-existing and self-created mysteries of the growth process described in the scientifically unacceptable Unified Growth Theory. However, the problem is much deeper than just the examination of this theory. Demographic Growth Theory is based on the incorrect but deeply entrenched postulates developed by accretion over many years and now generally accepted in the economic and demographic research, postulates revolving around the concept of Malthusian stagnation and around a transition from stagnation to growth. The study presented here and earlier similar publications show that these postulates need to be replaced by interpretations based on the mathematical analysis of data and on the correct understanding of hyperbolic distributions.

arXiv (Cornell University), Dec 10, 2015

One of the fundamental postulates of the Unified Growth Theory is the claimed existence of three ... more One of the fundamental postulates of the Unified Growth Theory is the claimed existence of three distinctly different regimes of economic growth governed by three distinctly different mechanisms of growth. However, Galor also proposed that the timing of these regimes is different for developed countries and for lessdeveloped countries. Africa is the perfect example of economic growth in lessdeveloped countries. The data used by Galor, but never properly investigated, are now analysed. They turn out to be in dramatic contradiction of this theory.

Applied mathematics, 2014

A simple but useful method of analysis of hyperbolic processes is presented and its application i... more A simple but useful method of analysis of hyperbolic processes is presented and its application is illustrated by using the growth of human population in Africa, the economic growth in Western Europe and the examination of the fundamental postulates of the Unified Growth Theory. It is shown how this method can revolutionize the interpretation of the historical economic growth and the growth of human population and how it can help to understand the current growth. Examples used to illustrate the application of this method show that, contrary to the accepted interpretations, the Industrial Revolution and the accompanying unprecedented technological development had no impact on the economic growth even in Western Europe and that Galor's Unified Growth Theory fails the scientific test.

Episodes, Jun 1, 2021

Is the Anthropocene a new geological epoch and can its beginning be determined? The so-called Gre... more Is the Anthropocene a new geological epoch and can its beginning be determined? The so-called Great Acceleration data, used repeatedly in support of the concept of the Anthropocene as a new geological epoch, are closely examined. They are supposed to be characterised by a clear intensification of growth (sharp increase, acceleration) in the mid-20th century. They revealed the opposite effect: they are characterised by decelerations either at precisely the same time when accelerations were expected or over the entire range of data, the phenomenon described here as the Great Deceleration. Implications of this study are two-folds: (1) contrary to expectations, these data cannot be used to determine the beginning of the Anthropocene and (2) the common deceleration questions whether humans alone can cause a transition to a new geological epoch. Investigation of the growth of the genus Homo in the past 2,000,000 years suggests that what is now called the Anthropocene could be just a natural continuation of the gradual evolution of human activities and impacts over a long time, without a sudden intensification and without a convincing evidence for a transition to a new geological epoch.

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Sep 1, 2017

Economic growth and the growth of human population in the past 2,000,000 years are extensively ex... more Economic growth and the growth of human population in the past 2,000,000 years are extensively examined. Data are found to be in a clear contradiction of the currently accepted explanations of the mechanism of growth, which revolve around two fundamental but incorrect doctrines: (1) the doctrine of stagnation (inappropriately labelled also as Malthusian stagnation, because Malthus never claimed that his positive checks would cause a long-lasting and widespread stagnation) and (2) the doctrine of explosion described also as a takeoff, sprint, spike or by other similar attributes. These doctrines and other related postulates are contradicted even by precisely the same data, which are used in the economic research and by the research results published in a prestigious scientific journal as early as in 1960. The generally accepted explanations are not based on a rigorous analysis of data but on impressions created by the easily misleading features of hyperbolic distributions. Two leading theories: the Demographic Transitions Theory (or Model) and the Unified Growth Theory are fundamentally incorrect. Descriptions of the past socioeconomic conditions are not questioned. They might have been harsh, difficult and primitive but they are not reflected in the growth trajectories. They did not create stagnation in the economic growth and in the growth of population. Likewise, impacts of the Industrial Revolution on many aspects of life are not questioned. It is only demonstrated that this event had absolutely no impact on shaping growth trajectories. A general law of growth is formulated and used to explain the mechanism of growth of human population and of economic growth. The growth was predominantly hyperbolic. Such a growth is described by exceptionally simple mathematical function and the explanation of the mechanism of growth turns out to be also simple.

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Mar 1, 2016

Historical economic growth in Latin America is analysed using the data of Maddison. Unified Growt... more Historical economic growth in Latin America is analysed using the data of Maddison. Unified Growth Theory is found to be contradicted by these data in the same way as it is contradicted by the economic growth in Africa, Asia, former USSR, Western Europe, Eastern Europe and by the world economic growth. Paradoxically, Unified Growth Theory is repeatedly and consistently contradicted by the same data, which were used, but never properly analysed, during the formulation of this theory. Unified Growth Theory does not explain the mechanism of the economic growth because it explains features contradicted by data. This theory is based fundamentally on the unfortunate lack of understanding of the properties of hyperbolic distribution and on the unscientific analysis of data. There was no transition from stagnation to growth at the end of the alleged Malthusian regime because the economic growth was hyperbolic. There was no escape from Malthusian trap because there was no trap. There was no takeoff. On the contrary, at the time of the alleged takeoff economic growth started to be diverted to a slower trajectory. Unified Growth Theory is dissociated from the reality. This theory needs to be revised or replaced. In its present form, it is a collection of irrelevant stories based on impressions and on the unscientific use of data.

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Feb 1, 2016

Historical economic growth in the countries of the former USSR is analysed. It is shown that Unif... more Historical economic growth in the countries of the former USSR is analysed. It is shown that Unified Growth Theory is contradicted by the data, which were used, but not analysed, during the formulation of this theory. Unified Growth Theory does not explain the mechanism of economic growth. It explains the mechanism of Malthusian stagnation, which did not exist and it explains the mechanism of the transition from stagnation to growth that did not happen. Unified Growth Theory is full of stories but it is hard to decide which of them are reliable because they are based on unprofessional examination of data. The data show that the economic growth in the former USSR was never stagnant but hyperbolic. Industrial Revolution did not boost the economic growth in the former USSR. Unified Growth Theory needs to be revised or replaced by a reliable theory to reconcile it with data and to avoid creating the unwarranted sense of security about the current economic growth.