Ronny Mazzocchi - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Uploads

Papers by Ronny Mazzocchi

Research paper thumbnail of Current Account Imbalances and the Euro Area. Alternative Views

Social Science Research Network, 2019

Research paper thumbnail of Current account imbalances and the Euro Area. Controversies and policy lessons

Economia Politica, Jan 25, 2021

The crucial role of current account imbalances (CAI) is widely acknowledged in the consensus narr... more The crucial role of current account imbalances (CAI) is widely acknowledged in the consensus narrative of the European crisis that followed the Great Recession. On the basis of this interpretation, CAI play a prominent role in the EU Macroeconomic Imbalances Procedure (MIP), which broadens the EU economic governance framework to include the surveillance of unsustainable macroeconomic trends. Although the widening of the CAI in the Euro Area before the crisis is a matter of fact, and the consensus narrative contains elements of truth, alternative views have been put forward on three main issues: (i) the relevance of CAI, (ii) their causes and connection with the crisis, and (iii) their policy implications. The aim of this paper is to examine these controversial points about the causes, meaning and consequences of CAI, and discuss the alternative policy prescriptions that emerge.

Research paper thumbnail of Competition in the Banking Sector and Economic Growth: Panel-Based International Evidence

Social Science Research Network, 2014

This paper employs panel techniques to empirically examine the link between the competitiveness o... more This paper employs panel techniques to empirically examine the link between the competitiveness of the banking sector and real economic growth, using data from a sample of OECD economies during 1997-2010. We employ a dynamic GMM model to find that an increase in the efficiency of banks driven by fiercer competition is robustly associated with higher real growth. The issue of Granger-causality is then explored by means of a panelbased testing procedure addressing heterogeneity. While there is a strong evidence of causality running from real growth to banking competitiveness, a bi-directional causality appears clearly only for lags higher than 1.

Research paper thumbnail of Current account imbalances and the Euro Area. Controversies and policy lessons

Economia Politica, 2021

The crucial role of current account imbalances (CAI) is widely acknowledged in the consensus narr... more The crucial role of current account imbalances (CAI) is widely acknowledged in the consensus narrative of the European crisis that followed the Great Recession. On the basis of this interpretation, CAI play a prominent role in the EU Macroeconomic Imbalances Procedure (MIP), which broadens the EU economic governance framework to include the surveillance of unsustainable macroeconomic trends. Although the widening of the CAI in the Euro Area before the crisis is a matter of fact, and the consensus narrative contains elements of truth, alternative views have been put forward on three main issues: (i) the relevance of CAI, (ii) their causes and connection with the crisis, and (iii) their policy implications. The aim of this paper is to examine these controversial points about the causes, meaning and consequences of CAI, and discuss the alternative policy prescriptions that emerge.

Research paper thumbnail of Monetary Policy, Rational Confidence, and Neo-Fisherian depressions

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2019

We examine the so-called "Neo-Fisherian" claim that, at the zero lower bound (ZLB) of the monetar... more We examine the so-called "Neo-Fisherian" claim that, at the zero lower bound (ZLB) of the monetary policy interest rate, and the economy in a depression equilibrium, in order to restore the desired inflation rate the policy rate should be raised consistently with the Fisher equation. This claim has been questioned on the ground that the Fisher equation cannot be used mechanically to peg the long-run inflation expectations. It is necessary to examine how inflation expectations are formed in response to, and interact with, policy actions and the evolution of the economy. Hence we study a New Keynesian economy where agents' inflation expectations are based on their correct understanding of the data generations process, and on their probabilistic confidence in the central bank's ability to keep inflation on target, driven by the observed state of the economy. We find that the Neo-Fisherian claim is a theoretical possibility depending on the interplay of a set of parameters and very low levels of agents' confidence. Yet, on the basis of simulations of the model, we may say that this possibility is remote for most commonly found empirical values of the relevant parameters. Moreover, the Neo-Fisherian policy-rate peg is not sustained by the expectations formation process.

Research paper thumbnail of Current Account Imbalances and the Euro Area. Alternative Views

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2019

The critical role of current account imbalances (CAI) is widely shared in the consensus narrative... more The critical role of current account imbalances (CAI) is widely shared in the consensus narratives of the European crisis that followed the Great Recession. On the basis of this interpretation, new EU initiatives raised, in particular the so-called "Six Pack" adoption in 2011 and the establishment of the European Semester procedure to improve policy coordination in the EU beyond fiscal matters. This package includes the Macroeconomic Imbalances Procedure (MIP) that broadens the EU economic governance framework to include the surveillance of unsustainable macroeconomic trends. Although the widening of the CAI in the Euro Area is a matter of fact, and the consensus narrative contains elements of truth, alternative views have been put forward on mainly three issues: i) their relevance, ii) their causes and connection with the crisis, and iii) their policy implications. The aim of this paper is to examine these controversial points about the causes, meaning and consequences of CAI, and discuss the alternative policy prescriptions that emerge.

Research paper thumbnail of Monetary policy, de-anchoring of inflation expectations, and the “new normal”

Journal of Macroeconomics, 2018

Persistently low inflation rates in the Euro Area raise the question whether inflation is still c... more Persistently low inflation rates in the Euro Area raise the question whether inflation is still credibly anchored to the Euro-system's medium term target of below, but close to 2%. The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, we investigate why agents' expectations that over the business cycle inflation will remain in line with the target begin to falter. Our hypothesis is that agents form expectations in terms of their confidence in the "normal regime", which is updated observing the state of the economy. Second, we study how the de-anchoring of expectations interacts with monetary policy determining whether the central bank is still able to achieve its target-and hence re-anchor inflation expectations-or whether the system drifts away towards depressed states of low inflation and output. Two are our main findings. The first is that, facing unfavourable shocks, if inflation expectations "fall faster" than the policy rate, and the zero lower bound is reached without correcting the shock, the system converges to a new steady state-the "new normal"-with permanent negative gaps. The second is that a more aggressive monetary policy is ineffective both at the ZLB and above the ZLB, when the shock is large and/or when the reactivity of inflation expectations is high enough. This last finding seems to support the necessity, in those conditions, to abandon conventional monetary policy and to switch to an aggressive reflationary policy that prevents the entrenchment of deflationary expectations.

Research paper thumbnail of The Two Triangles: What Did Wicksell and Keynes Know About Macroeconomics that Modern Economists Do Not (Consider)?

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2009

The current consensus in macroeconomics, as represented by the New Neoclassical Synthesis, is to ... more The current consensus in macroeconomics, as represented by the New Neoclassical Synthesis, is to work within frameworks that combine intertemporal optimization, imperfect competition and sticky prices. We contrast this NNS triangle with a model in the spirit of Wicksell and Keynes that sets the focus on interest-rate misalignments as problems of intertemporal coordination of consumption and production plans in imperfect capital markets. We show that, with minimal deviations from the standard perfect competition model, a model structure can be derived that looks similar to the NNS triangle, but yields substantially different conclusions with regard to the dynamics of inflation and output gaps and to the design of the appropriate rule for monetary policy.

Research paper thumbnail of Wicksell, Keynes, and the New Neoclassical Synthesis: What Can We Learn for Monetary Policy?

Economic Notes, 2014

The New Neoclassical Synthesis (NNS) provides the established macroeconomic foundation for moneta... more The New Neoclassical Synthesis (NNS) provides the established macroeconomic foundation for monetary policy. The Great Recession has, however, unveiled a number of unresolved issues. Prominent scholars have stressed the connections of the NNS with the founders of macroeconomic thought, Wicksell and Keynes. Our main contention is that the NNS fails to consider, and learn from, the hallmark of Wicksell's and Keynes's approaches to business cycles, namely investment-saving imbalances (ISI). Systematic studies of macroeconomic instability, and notably the Great Recession, give prominence to this phenomenon. Drawing on Wicksell's and Keynes's insights, this paper provides a framework to deal with ISI and monetary policy according to modern theoretical standards and techniques (e.g. agents seek to optimize intertemporally and markets clear). Section 2 of the paper clarifies some basic theoretical issues underlying the NNS vis-à-vis Wicksell and Keynes. Section 3 presents a dynamic model whereby it is possible to assess some basic issues concerning the macroeconomics of ISI that are at variance with the NNS. Section 4 shows how system stabilization can be achieved by means of a 'Wicksellian' interest-rate rule, which, however, displays dynamic features and conditions that differ from the current NNS consensus. Central banks may thus learn that ISI deserve careful symptom monitoring, and that they require greater attention to the dynamic stability of choices of policy reaction functions.

Research paper thumbnail of Beyond DSGE: A macrodynamic model with intertemporal coordination failure

Research Papers in Economics, 2010

Beyond DSGE: a Macrodynamic Model with Intertemporal coordination failure Ronny Mazzocchi The cur... more Beyond DSGE: a Macrodynamic Model with Intertemporal coordination failure Ronny Mazzocchi The current consensus in macroeconomics, or New Neoclassical Synthesis (NNS), is based on dynamically stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) modelling with a RBC core to which nominal rigidities are added by way of imperfect competition. The strategy is to minimize the frictions that are required to reproduce Keynesian results (in terms of persistent real effects of monetary policy) and Wicksellian results (in terms of interaction of interest and prices) in a rigorous framework with intertemporal optimization of consumption, forward-looking behavior and continously clearing markets. In reality the main contention of Keynes and Wicksell was saving-investment imbalances (i.e. capital market failures and intertemporal disequilibrium in modern parlance) that are notably absent from the NNS. The paper presents a dynamic model with endogenous capital stock whereby it is possible to assess, and hopefully clarify, some basic issues concerning the macroeconomics of saving-investment imbalances and to explore the dynamic properties of the system under different monetary policy rules.

Research paper thumbnail of Current Account Imbalances and the Euro Area. Alternative Views

Social Science Research Network, 2019

Research paper thumbnail of Current account imbalances and the Euro Area. Controversies and policy lessons

Economia Politica, Jan 25, 2021

The crucial role of current account imbalances (CAI) is widely acknowledged in the consensus narr... more The crucial role of current account imbalances (CAI) is widely acknowledged in the consensus narrative of the European crisis that followed the Great Recession. On the basis of this interpretation, CAI play a prominent role in the EU Macroeconomic Imbalances Procedure (MIP), which broadens the EU economic governance framework to include the surveillance of unsustainable macroeconomic trends. Although the widening of the CAI in the Euro Area before the crisis is a matter of fact, and the consensus narrative contains elements of truth, alternative views have been put forward on three main issues: (i) the relevance of CAI, (ii) their causes and connection with the crisis, and (iii) their policy implications. The aim of this paper is to examine these controversial points about the causes, meaning and consequences of CAI, and discuss the alternative policy prescriptions that emerge.

Research paper thumbnail of Competition in the Banking Sector and Economic Growth: Panel-Based International Evidence

Social Science Research Network, 2014

This paper employs panel techniques to empirically examine the link between the competitiveness o... more This paper employs panel techniques to empirically examine the link between the competitiveness of the banking sector and real economic growth, using data from a sample of OECD economies during 1997-2010. We employ a dynamic GMM model to find that an increase in the efficiency of banks driven by fiercer competition is robustly associated with higher real growth. The issue of Granger-causality is then explored by means of a panelbased testing procedure addressing heterogeneity. While there is a strong evidence of causality running from real growth to banking competitiveness, a bi-directional causality appears clearly only for lags higher than 1.

Research paper thumbnail of Current account imbalances and the Euro Area. Controversies and policy lessons

Economia Politica, 2021

The crucial role of current account imbalances (CAI) is widely acknowledged in the consensus narr... more The crucial role of current account imbalances (CAI) is widely acknowledged in the consensus narrative of the European crisis that followed the Great Recession. On the basis of this interpretation, CAI play a prominent role in the EU Macroeconomic Imbalances Procedure (MIP), which broadens the EU economic governance framework to include the surveillance of unsustainable macroeconomic trends. Although the widening of the CAI in the Euro Area before the crisis is a matter of fact, and the consensus narrative contains elements of truth, alternative views have been put forward on three main issues: (i) the relevance of CAI, (ii) their causes and connection with the crisis, and (iii) their policy implications. The aim of this paper is to examine these controversial points about the causes, meaning and consequences of CAI, and discuss the alternative policy prescriptions that emerge.

Research paper thumbnail of Monetary Policy, Rational Confidence, and Neo-Fisherian depressions

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2019

We examine the so-called "Neo-Fisherian" claim that, at the zero lower bound (ZLB) of the monetar... more We examine the so-called "Neo-Fisherian" claim that, at the zero lower bound (ZLB) of the monetary policy interest rate, and the economy in a depression equilibrium, in order to restore the desired inflation rate the policy rate should be raised consistently with the Fisher equation. This claim has been questioned on the ground that the Fisher equation cannot be used mechanically to peg the long-run inflation expectations. It is necessary to examine how inflation expectations are formed in response to, and interact with, policy actions and the evolution of the economy. Hence we study a New Keynesian economy where agents' inflation expectations are based on their correct understanding of the data generations process, and on their probabilistic confidence in the central bank's ability to keep inflation on target, driven by the observed state of the economy. We find that the Neo-Fisherian claim is a theoretical possibility depending on the interplay of a set of parameters and very low levels of agents' confidence. Yet, on the basis of simulations of the model, we may say that this possibility is remote for most commonly found empirical values of the relevant parameters. Moreover, the Neo-Fisherian policy-rate peg is not sustained by the expectations formation process.

Research paper thumbnail of Current Account Imbalances and the Euro Area. Alternative Views

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2019

The critical role of current account imbalances (CAI) is widely shared in the consensus narrative... more The critical role of current account imbalances (CAI) is widely shared in the consensus narratives of the European crisis that followed the Great Recession. On the basis of this interpretation, new EU initiatives raised, in particular the so-called "Six Pack" adoption in 2011 and the establishment of the European Semester procedure to improve policy coordination in the EU beyond fiscal matters. This package includes the Macroeconomic Imbalances Procedure (MIP) that broadens the EU economic governance framework to include the surveillance of unsustainable macroeconomic trends. Although the widening of the CAI in the Euro Area is a matter of fact, and the consensus narrative contains elements of truth, alternative views have been put forward on mainly three issues: i) their relevance, ii) their causes and connection with the crisis, and iii) their policy implications. The aim of this paper is to examine these controversial points about the causes, meaning and consequences of CAI, and discuss the alternative policy prescriptions that emerge.

Research paper thumbnail of Monetary policy, de-anchoring of inflation expectations, and the “new normal”

Journal of Macroeconomics, 2018

Persistently low inflation rates in the Euro Area raise the question whether inflation is still c... more Persistently low inflation rates in the Euro Area raise the question whether inflation is still credibly anchored to the Euro-system's medium term target of below, but close to 2%. The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, we investigate why agents' expectations that over the business cycle inflation will remain in line with the target begin to falter. Our hypothesis is that agents form expectations in terms of their confidence in the "normal regime", which is updated observing the state of the economy. Second, we study how the de-anchoring of expectations interacts with monetary policy determining whether the central bank is still able to achieve its target-and hence re-anchor inflation expectations-or whether the system drifts away towards depressed states of low inflation and output. Two are our main findings. The first is that, facing unfavourable shocks, if inflation expectations "fall faster" than the policy rate, and the zero lower bound is reached without correcting the shock, the system converges to a new steady state-the "new normal"-with permanent negative gaps. The second is that a more aggressive monetary policy is ineffective both at the ZLB and above the ZLB, when the shock is large and/or when the reactivity of inflation expectations is high enough. This last finding seems to support the necessity, in those conditions, to abandon conventional monetary policy and to switch to an aggressive reflationary policy that prevents the entrenchment of deflationary expectations.

Research paper thumbnail of The Two Triangles: What Did Wicksell and Keynes Know About Macroeconomics that Modern Economists Do Not (Consider)?

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2009

The current consensus in macroeconomics, as represented by the New Neoclassical Synthesis, is to ... more The current consensus in macroeconomics, as represented by the New Neoclassical Synthesis, is to work within frameworks that combine intertemporal optimization, imperfect competition and sticky prices. We contrast this NNS triangle with a model in the spirit of Wicksell and Keynes that sets the focus on interest-rate misalignments as problems of intertemporal coordination of consumption and production plans in imperfect capital markets. We show that, with minimal deviations from the standard perfect competition model, a model structure can be derived that looks similar to the NNS triangle, but yields substantially different conclusions with regard to the dynamics of inflation and output gaps and to the design of the appropriate rule for monetary policy.

Research paper thumbnail of Wicksell, Keynes, and the New Neoclassical Synthesis: What Can We Learn for Monetary Policy?

Economic Notes, 2014

The New Neoclassical Synthesis (NNS) provides the established macroeconomic foundation for moneta... more The New Neoclassical Synthesis (NNS) provides the established macroeconomic foundation for monetary policy. The Great Recession has, however, unveiled a number of unresolved issues. Prominent scholars have stressed the connections of the NNS with the founders of macroeconomic thought, Wicksell and Keynes. Our main contention is that the NNS fails to consider, and learn from, the hallmark of Wicksell's and Keynes's approaches to business cycles, namely investment-saving imbalances (ISI). Systematic studies of macroeconomic instability, and notably the Great Recession, give prominence to this phenomenon. Drawing on Wicksell's and Keynes's insights, this paper provides a framework to deal with ISI and monetary policy according to modern theoretical standards and techniques (e.g. agents seek to optimize intertemporally and markets clear). Section 2 of the paper clarifies some basic theoretical issues underlying the NNS vis-à-vis Wicksell and Keynes. Section 3 presents a dynamic model whereby it is possible to assess some basic issues concerning the macroeconomics of ISI that are at variance with the NNS. Section 4 shows how system stabilization can be achieved by means of a 'Wicksellian' interest-rate rule, which, however, displays dynamic features and conditions that differ from the current NNS consensus. Central banks may thus learn that ISI deserve careful symptom monitoring, and that they require greater attention to the dynamic stability of choices of policy reaction functions.

Research paper thumbnail of Beyond DSGE: A macrodynamic model with intertemporal coordination failure

Research Papers in Economics, 2010

Beyond DSGE: a Macrodynamic Model with Intertemporal coordination failure Ronny Mazzocchi The cur... more Beyond DSGE: a Macrodynamic Model with Intertemporal coordination failure Ronny Mazzocchi The current consensus in macroeconomics, or New Neoclassical Synthesis (NNS), is based on dynamically stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) modelling with a RBC core to which nominal rigidities are added by way of imperfect competition. The strategy is to minimize the frictions that are required to reproduce Keynesian results (in terms of persistent real effects of monetary policy) and Wicksellian results (in terms of interaction of interest and prices) in a rigorous framework with intertemporal optimization of consumption, forward-looking behavior and continously clearing markets. In reality the main contention of Keynes and Wicksell was saving-investment imbalances (i.e. capital market failures and intertemporal disequilibrium in modern parlance) that are notably absent from the NNS. The paper presents a dynamic model with endogenous capital stock whereby it is possible to assess, and hopefully clarify, some basic issues concerning the macroeconomics of saving-investment imbalances and to explore the dynamic properties of the system under different monetary policy rules.