Ryan Masters - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Ryan Masters

$Research paper thumbnail of MOESM2 of Accounting for biases in survey-based estimates of population attributable fractions$

Additional file 2. This is a Microsoft Excel file containing race/ethnic- and gender-specific PAF... more Additional file 2. This is a Microsoft Excel file containing race/ethnic- and gender-specific PAF estimates used to estimate PAFpe and PAFpd in TableÂ 4.

$Research paper thumbnail of MOESM1 of Accounting for biases in survey-based estimates of population attributable fractions$

Additional file 1. This is a Stata do-file containing commands to fit clog-log discrete time surv... more Additional file 1. This is a Stata do-file containing commands to fit clog-log discrete time survival models.

Objectives. To estimate the percentage of excess death for US Black and White men and women assoc... more Objectives. To estimate the percentage of excess death for US Black and White men and women associated with high body mass, we examined the combined effects of age variation in the obesity–mortality relationship and cohort variation in age-specific obesity prevalence. Methods. We examined 19 National Health Interview Survey waves linked to individual National Death Index mortality records, 1986–2006, for age and cohort patterns in the population-level association between obesity and US adult mortality. Results. The estimated percentage of adult deaths between 1986 and 2006 associated with overweight and obesity was 5.0% and 15.6% for Black and White men, and 26.8% and 21.7% for Black and White women, respectively. We found a substantially stronger association than previous research between obesity and mortality risk at older ages, and an increasing percentage of mortality attributable to obesity across birth cohorts. Conclusions. Previous research has likely underestimated obesity’s...

PLOS ONE, 2020

Background Age-period-cohort (APC) models are often used to decompose health trends into periodan... more Background Age-period-cohort (APC) models are often used to decompose health trends into periodand cohort-based sources, but their use in epidemiology and population sciences remains contentious. Central to the contention are researchers' failures to 1) clearly state their analytic assumptions and/or 2) thoroughly evaluate model results. These failures often produce varying conclusions across APC studies and generate confusion about APC methods. Consequently, scholarly exchanges about APC methods usually result in strong disagreements that rarely offer practical advice to users or readers of APC methods. Methods We use research guidelines to help practitioners of APC methods articulate their analytic assumptions and validate their results. To demonstrate the usefulness of the guidelines, we apply them to a 2015 American Journal of Epidemiology study about trends in black-white differences in U.S. heart disease mortality. Results The application of the guidelines highlights two important findings. On the one hand, some APC methods produce inconsistent results that are highly sensitive to researcher manipulation. On the other hand, other APC methods estimate results that are robust to researcher manipulation and consistent across APC models. Conclusions The exercise shows the simplicity and effectiveness of the guidelines in resolving disagreements over APC results. The cautious use of APC models can generate results that are consistent across methods and robust to researcher manipulation. If followed, the guidelines can likely reduce the chance of publishing variable and conflicting results across APC studies.

$Research paper thumbnail of Accounting for biases in survey-based estimates of population attributable fractions$

Population Health Metrics, 2019

Background This paper discusses best practices for estimating fractions of mortality attributable... more Background This paper discusses best practices for estimating fractions of mortality attributable to health exposures in survey data that are biased by observed confounders and unobserved endogenous selection. Extant research has shown that estimates of population attributable fractions (PAF) from the formula using the proportion of deceased that is exposed (PAFpd) can attend to confounders, whereas the formula using the proportion of the entire sample exposed (PAFpe) is biased by confounders. Research has not explored how PAFpd and PAFpe equations perform when both confounding and selection bias are present. Methods We review equations for calculating PAF based on either the proportion of deceased (pd) or the proportion of the entire sample (pe) that receives the exposure. We explore how estimates from each equation are affected by confounding bias and selection bias using hypothetical data and real-world survey data from the National Health Interview Survey–Linked Mortality Files,...

BMC Public Health, 2016

Background: In the past two decades, rates of suicide mortality have declined among most OECD mem... more Background: In the past two decades, rates of suicide mortality have declined among most OECD member states. Two notable exceptions are Japan and South Korea, where suicide mortality has increased by 20 % and 280 %, respectively. Methods: Population and suicide mortality data were collected through national statistics organizations in Japan and South Korea for the period 1985 to 2010. Age, period of observation, and birth cohort membership were divided into five-year increments. We fitted a series of intrinsic estimator age-period-cohort models to estimate the effects of age-related processes, secular changes, and birth cohort dynamics on the rising rates of suicide mortality in the two neighboring countries. Results: In Japan, elevated suicide rates are primarily driven by period effects, initiated during the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s. In South Korea, multiple factors appear to be responsible for the stark increase in suicide mortality, including recent secular changes, elevated suicide risks at older ages in the context of an aging society, and strong cohort effects for those born between the Great Depression and the aftermath of the Korean War. Conclusion: In spite of cultural, demographic and geographic similarities in Japan and South Korea, the underlying causes of increased suicide mortality differ across these societies-suggesting that public health responses should be tailored to fit each country's unique situation.

American Journal of Epidemiology, 2017

Social Science & Medicine, 2015

Previously, Reither et al. (2015) demonstrated that hierarchical age-period-cohort (HAPC) models ... more Previously, Reither et al. (2015) demonstrated that hierarchical age-period-cohort (HAPC) models perform well when basic assumptions are satisfied. To contest this finding, Bell and Jones (2015) invent a data generating process (DGP) that borrows age, period and cohort effects from different equations in Reither et al. (2015). When HAPC models applied to data simulated from this DGP fail to recover the patterning of APC effects, B&J reiterate their view that these models provide "misleading evidence dressed up as science." Despite such strong words, B&J show no curiosity about their own simulated data-and therefore once again misapply HAPC models to data that violate important assumptions. In this response, we illustrate how a careful analyst could *

Social science & medicine (1982), 2015

Social scientists have recognized the importance of age-period-cohort (APC) models for half a cen... more Social scientists have recognized the importance of age-period-cohort (APC) models for half a century, but have spent much of this time mired in debates about the feasibility of APC methods. Recently, a new class of APC methods based on modern statistical knowledge has emerged, offering potential solutions. In 2009, Reither, Hauser and Yang used one of these new methods - hierarchical APC (HAPC) modeling - to study how birth cohorts may have contributed to the U.S. obesity epidemic. They found that recent birth cohorts experience higher odds of obesity than their predecessors, but that ubiquitous period-based changes are primarily responsible for the rising prevalence of obesity. Although these findings have been replicated elsewhere, recent commentaries by Bell and Jones call them into question - along with the new class of APC methods. Specifically, Bell and Jones claim that new APC methods do not adequately address model identification and suggest that "solid…

International Handbook of Population Aging, 2009

Demography, 2014

Black–white differences in U.S. adult mortality have narrowed over the past five decades, but whe... more Black–white differences in U.S. adult mortality have narrowed over the past five decades, but whether this narrowing unfolded on a period or cohort basis is unclear. The distinction has important implications for understanding the socioeconomic, public health, lifestyle, and medical mechanisms responsible for this narrowing. We use data from 1959 to 2009 and age-period-cohort (APC) models to examine period- and cohort-based changes in adult mortality for U.S. blacks and whites. We do so for all-cause mortality among persons aged 15–74 as well as for several underlying causes of death more pertinent for specific age groups. We find clear patterns of cohort-based reductions in mortality for both black men and women and white men and women. Recent cohort-based reductions in heart disease, stroke, lung cancer, female breast cancer, and other cancer mortality have been substantial and, save for breast cancer, have been especially pronounced for blacks. Period-based changes have also occu...

Social science & medicine (1982), Jan 12, 2014

Fundamental cause theory explains persisting associations between socioeconomic status and mortal... more Fundamental cause theory explains persisting associations between socioeconomic status and mortality in terms of personal resources such as knowledge, money, power, prestige, and social connections, as well as disparate social contexts related to these resources. We review evidence concerning fundamental cause theory and test three central claims using the National Health Interview Survey Linked Mortality Files 1986-2004. We then examine cohort-based variation in the associations between a fundamental social cause of disease, educational attainment, and mortality rates from heart disease, other "preventable" causes of death, and less preventable causes of death. We further explore race/ethnic and gender variation in these associations. Overall, findings are consistent with nearly all features of fundamental cause theory. Results show, first, larger education gradients in mortality risk for causes of death that are under greater human control than for less preventable cause...

Demography, 2012

The positive associations between education and health and survival are well established, but whe... more The positive associations between education and health and survival are well established, but whether the strength of these associations depends on gender is not. Is the beneficial influence of education on survival and on self-rated health conditioned by gender in the same way, in opposite ways, or not at all? Because women are otherwise disadvantaged in socioeconomic resources that are inputs to health, their health and survival may depend more on education than will men’s. To test this hypothesis, we use data from the National Health Interview Survey-Linked Mortality Files (NHIS-LMF). We find that education’s beneficial influence on feeling healthy and on survival are conditional on gender, but in opposite ways. Education has a larger effect on women’s self-rated health than on men’s, but a larger effect on men’s mortality. To further examine the mortality results, we examine specific causes of death. We find that the conditional effect is largest for deaths from lung cancer, res...

American Sociological Review, 2012

We use hierarchical cross-classified random-effects models to simultaneously measure age, period,... more We use hierarchical cross-classified random-effects models to simultaneously measure age, period, and cohort patterns of mortality risk between 1986 and 2006 for non-Hispanic white and non-Hispanic black men and women with less than a high school education, a high school education, and more than a high school education. We examine all-cause mortality risk and mortality risk from heart disease, lung cancer, and unpreventable cancers. Findings reveal that temporal reductions in black and white men’s and women’s mortality rates were driven entirely by cohort changes in mortality. Findings also demonstrate that disparate cohort effects between education groups widened the education gap in all-cause mortality risk and mortality risk from heart disease and lung cancer across this time period. Educational disparities in mortality risk from unpreventable cancers, however, did not change. This research uncovers widening educational differences in adult mortality and demonstrates that a cohor...

American Journal of Public Health, 2014

ABSTRACT We thank the editor for the opportunity to respond to the comments of Wang and Yu. The c... more ABSTRACT We thank the editor for the opportunity to respond to the comments of Wang and Yu. The central issue raised in both letters is the age pattern of the US obesity-mortality association. Most research suggests that the effect of obesity on mortality risk grows weaker with increasing age, consistent with Wang's Figure 1. (Am J Public Health. Published online ahead of print February 13, 2014: e1-e2. doi:10.2105/AJPH.2014.301916).

American Journal of Public Health, 2012

Objectives. We elucidated how US late-life disability prevalence has changed over the past 3 deca... more Objectives. We elucidated how US late-life disability prevalence has changed over the past 3 decades. Methods. We examined activities of daily living (ADL) and instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) disability trends by using age–period–cohort (APC) models among older adults aged 70 years or older who responded to the National Health Interview Survey between 1982 and 2009. We fitted logistic regressions for ADL and IADL disabilities and for each of the 3 APC trends with 2 models: unadjusted and fully adjusted for age, period, cohort, and sociodemographic variables. Results. The unadjusted and adjusted period trends showed a substantial decline in IADL disability, and ADL disability remained stable across time. Unadjusted cohort trends for both outcomes also showed continual declines across successive cohorts; however, increasing cohort trends were evident in the adjusted models. Conclusions. More recent cohorts of US older adults are becoming more disabled, net of aging and ...

American Journal of Public Health, 2013

American Journal of Epidemiology, 2013

In this study, we analyzed age variation in the association between obesity status and US adult m... more In this study, we analyzed age variation in the association between obesity status and US adult mortality risk. Previous studies have found that the association between obesity and mortality risk weakens with age. We argue that existing results were derived from biased estimates of the obesity-mortality relationship because models failed to account for confounding influences from respondents' ages at survey and/or cohort membership. We employed a series of Cox regression models in data from 19 cross-sectional, nationally representative waves of the US National Health Interview Survey (1986–2004), linked to the National Death Index through 2006, to examine age patterns in the obesity-mortality association between ages 25 and 100 years. Findings suggest that survey-based estimates of age patterns in the obesity-mortality relationship are significantly confounded by disparate cohort mortality and age-related survey selection bias. When these factors are accounted for in Cox surviva...