S. Philander - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by S. Philander

Is the Temperature Rising?, 1998

Our Affair with El Niño, 2018

Revista Espanola De Fisica, 1996

Advances in Geophysics, 1985

Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union, 2014

Issues in Atmospheric and Oceanic Modeling - Part A Climate Dynamics, 1985

Publisher Summary This chapter examines the various aspects of the southern oscillation (SO) and ... more Publisher Summary This chapter examines the various aspects of the southern oscillation (SO) and El Nino. Over the tropical Pacific Ocean, the SO is associated with large year-to-year variations in the intensity of the trade winds and in rainfall patterns. The SO also has a signature that extends into the middle latitudes of each hemisphere during its winter season. Interannual sea-surface temperature variations in the tropical Pacific Ocean are primarily associated with a phenomenon known as El Nino. A typical El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episode evolves in two stages. One stage involves principally the eastern tropical Pacific, and the other involves the central and western Pacific. The differences between individual ENSO events reflect the relative strengths, and on rare occasions the order of occurrence of the two stages. The eastward displacement in the tropical Pacific of the warm surface waters and the atmospheric convection affected the atmospheric circulation globally. The oceanic changes during ENSO are caused primarily by the weakening of the trade winds. The close relation between El Nino events and the seasonal cycle suggests that the phase of the initial perturbations that trigger instabilities cannot be random.

Global Climate, 2003

The debate about global warming is about the outcome of a gamble. We are betting that the benefit... more The debate about global warming is about the outcome of a gamble. We are betting that the benefits of our industrial and agricultural activities — increasing standards of living for the rich and poor alike —will outweigh possible adverse consequences of an unfortunate by-product of our activities, an increase in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases that could lead to global warming and global climate changes. Some experts are warning that we are making poor bets, that global warming has started and that disasters are imminent. Others assure us that the chances of global warming are so remote that the outcome of our wager will definitely be in our favor. The impasse is disquieting because the issue is of vital importance to each of us; it concerns the habitability of our planet. How long will it be before the experts resolve their differences? How long before it is imperative that we take action?

Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 1994

Journal of Climate, 1992

Abstract A 140-year simulation of the ocean-atmosphere climate system has been performed by the G... more Abstract A 140-year simulation of the ocean-atmosphere climate system has been performed by the GFDL Climate Dynamics Project using a low-resolution coupled general circulation model (GCM). The model was subjected to annually averaged insolation throughout the integration. This coupled system exhibits well-defined fluctuations in the tropical Pacific, with a preferred time male of 3–4 years. The characteristics of these recurrent anomalies were examined by applying an extended empirical orthogonal function (EEOF) analysis to selected model variables. These results indicate that the simulated oscillations are accompanied by coherent changes in the atmospheric and oceanic circulation. The spatial patterns associated with the leading EEOF mode indicate that SST anomalies make their first appearance off the Peru-Ecuador coast and then migrate steadily westward, with an average transit time of 12–15 months. The arrival and eventual decay of SST fluctuations in the western Pacific is typically followed by the i...

Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans, 2005

Coupled tropical ocean-atmosphere dynamics and predictability New perspectives on ocean-atmospher... more Coupled tropical ocean-atmosphere dynamics and predictability New perspectives on ocean-atmosphere interactions have been developing on several fronts, and include the importance of salinity stratification, coupled variability in the Indian Ocean, the Atlantic cross-equatorial gradient of sea surface temperature, interaction of the oceanic Subtropical Cell with equatorial processes, the Indonesian throughflow, and the rectified effects of coupling on intraseasonal time scales. These new perspectives have important implications for a number of research areas that include the predictability of interannual tropical SST variations, and the predictability of decadal tropical-subtropical interactions, and furthermore can even contribute to a deeper understanding of paleoclimate data. To assess current activities in order to shed light on the new perspectives, the JSP02 symposium convened by Toshio Yamagata (IAPSO), Roger Lukas (IAPSO), Bin Wang (IAMAS) and Antonio J. Busalacchi (CLIVAR/WCRP) was held from July 2 through July 4 during the IUGG 2003 General Assembly in Sapporo. The meeting succeeded in attracting 60 presentations, including 54 talks and 6 posters. The DAO Editor-in-Chief Allan Robinson kindly provided us with an opportunity to publish papers related to our symposium in this special issue. We are most grateful to numerous colleagues for reviewing the papers, and to Ms. Tonny Smit of Elsevier Science and to Ms. Junko Moriyama for their devoted efforts that led to a timely completion of this project.

History of Physical Oceanography …, 2006

... several of my contemporaries, including Dennis Moore, Ed Sarachik, Jacques Merle and Jay ...G... more ... several of my contemporaries, including Dennis Moore, Ed Sarachik, Jacques Merle and Jay ...George Veronis and Henry Stommel13 first addressed this question and found that ... He neglected equatorial Kelvin waves, for example.) Henry Stommel persuaded younger colleagues ...

Journal of Atmospheric and Terrestrial Physics, 1994

Page 1. El Nino, La Nina, and the Southern Oscillation S. George Philander Page 2. 30 20 10 -10 -... more Page 1. El Nino, La Nina, and the Southern Oscillation S. George Philander Page 2. 30 20 10 -10 -20 ... 170 -150 Page 3. This page intentionally left blank Page 4. El Nino, La Nina, and the Southern Oscillation Page 5. This is Volume ...