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Papers by Salina Siddiqua

Health Economics Review, Jan 25, 2017

A number of studies have estimated the income elasticity of health care expenditure to identify w... more A number of studies have estimated the income elasticity of health care expenditure to identify whether health care is a necessary or luxury product. However, the issue has received less attention in developing countries, especially in Asian economies. The current study for the first time has used the panel data covering 36 Asian countries for the period 1995-2013 for revealing the nature of health care as a product. Along with conventional econometric techniques we have addressed the issue of cross section dependence and used Westerlund (2007) panel cointegration test which is robust against cross section dependence and heterogeneity for detecting the presence of panel cointegration. By applying Fully Modified OLS (FMOLS) and Dynamic OLS (DOLS) it was found that the long run elasticity of Health Care Expenditure (HCE) with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is less than unit implying that the health care can be regarded as necessary in nature for these countries.

Social sciences review (Dhaka), Mar 7, 2023

Fisher Equation, asserted by Irving Fisher in his celebrated book 'The Theory of Interest', revea... more Fisher Equation, asserted by Irving Fisher in his celebrated book 'The Theory of Interest', reveals that nominal interest rate adjusts with the inflation rate at the same rate in order to keep real interest rate constant. Using yearly time series data from Bangladesh for the period 1987-2020, this paper tested the validity of the Fisher effect considering the variables-Nominal Interest Rate (Advance Rate), Real Interest Rate and Inflation Rate. With a view to rationalizing the existence of structural break, Clemente-Montanes-Reyes (1998) unit root test was performed to identify the integration order of the variables of interest. After controlling structural break, Gregory-Hansen (1996) cointegration test applied for detecting the long run relationship by adopting ARDL framework. As the results revealed, Partial Fisher effect prevails for Bangladesh in short run. More specifically, keeping the real interest constant the impact of inflation rate on nominal interest rate is 0.16 percent with a lag effect in both ARDL model but parameters are stable only when we address structural break in the model. Thus, establishing that empirical identification of short run relationship among variables and existence of Fisher effect is subject to proper consideration of structural break.

This paper attempted at finding the long run relationship or cointegration between foreign direct... more This paper attempted at finding the long run relationship or cointegration between foreign direct investment and economic growth for Bangladesh using time series data of 1973-2007. For testing cointegration, the two modern time series econometric approaches-bound testing Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model and Engle Granger two step procedures-were executed and this study found that FDI and GDP was not cointegrated. Moreover, using Granger Causality test it was shown that the FDI and openness were not significantly causing the GDP per capital both in the short and long run. The study suggested adopting appropriate steps so that FDI can be used as a contributing factor to the economic development.

Financial Innovation, Oct 5, 2017

Background: Modeling exchange rate volatility has remained crucially important because of its div... more Background: Modeling exchange rate volatility has remained crucially important because of its diverse implications. This study aimed to address the issue of error distribution assumption in modeling and forecasting exchange rate volatility between the Bangladeshi taka (BDT) and the US dollar ($). Methods: Using daily exchange rates for 7 years (January 1, 2008, to April 30, 2015), this study attempted to model dynamics following generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH), asymmetric power ARCH (APARCH), exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedstic (EGARCH), threshold generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedstic (TGARCH), and integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedstic (IGARCH) processes under both normal and Student's t-distribution assumptions for errors. Results and Conclusions: It was found that, in contrast with the normal distribution, the application of Student's t-distribution for errors helped the models satisfy the diagnostic tests and show improved forecasting accuracy. With such error distribution for out-of-sample volatility forecasting, AR(2)-GARCH(1, 1) is considered the best.

Acknowledgement We would like to express our sincere gratitude to our supervisor Professor Joakim... more Acknowledgement We would like to express our sincere gratitude to our supervisor Professor Joakim Westerlund for the insightful comments and guidance throughout the process. It would have been impossible for us to complete the work and learning process without his proper support. We would also like to acknowledge the burden our family and friends have went through during the thesis work. Last but not the least we are grateful to Swedish Institute (SI) for covering one of our study expenses and made the journey of learning easier.

Theoretical Economics Letters

By April 2023 around 762 million confirmed cases and over 6.8 million deaths have been reported g... more By April 2023 around 762 million confirmed cases and over 6.8 million deaths have been reported globally due to COVID-19 (WHO). Huge economic loss took place due to the movement restrictions of production materials and workers. Bangladesh's GDP growth sharply declines to 6.93 percent in FY20 from a record high of 7.88 percent growth in FY19 (WDI, World Bank). Also due to factors like month-long lockdowns, restricted movements, sudden job cuts, the income of people decreased especially for those who belong to informal sectors like day laborers, rickshaw pullers, etc. This decline in income and the uncertainty of working opportunities also impact peoples' consumption behavior. One upazila has been selected from Bhola district i.e. Daulatkhan, a coastal area where majority of the population is involved in informal sectors. Conducting a primary survey, this paper aims to find out changes in income-consumption pattern before and after pandemic. Using Keynes consumption function, different MPC has been found for different periods, it became even worse among different professions as well. Thus this research suggests to take need base policies instead of a generic one to make vulnerable population's life secure. Necessary policy recommendation has been proposed along with opening a new dimension of future research.

The real bilateral exchange rates in many countries have recently been found to be non-stationary... more The real bilateral exchange rates in many countries have recently been found to be non-stationary in nature implying that they do not tend to revert to a long-run mean. Such empirical findings of real exchange rate being non-stationary in the long-run have thrown the well-known, yet now controversial, theory of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) under fire. This paper aims to add to the few research works on the validity of PPP hypothesis in case of real exchange rate of Bangladesh by undertaking various approaches. We used five important real exchange rates for Bangladesh with its five important partners of international trade. For validating the PPP hypothesis the stationarity of these real exchange rates have been diagnosed. The tests range from the very rudimentary Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron tests and other univariate unit root tests, to the tests which addresses one/more breaks in the time series data and finally panel unit root tests that account for the poss...

Business and Economic Horizons, 2018

Theoretical Economics Letters, 2018

An efficient and well behaved capital market can be regarded as a prerequisite for the sustainabl... more An efficient and well behaved capital market can be regarded as a prerequisite for the sustainable financial development for an economy. For making the stock market efficient and reducing uncertainty, volatility measure is necessary for the policy makers. The main objective of this paper is to examine relative ability of various models to forecast future volatility and to devise appropriate volatility model for capturing variability in stock returns of Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE). By exploiting daily data spanning from 27 th November, 2001 to 31 st July, 2013, it was found that, from volatility persistency perspective MA(2) − GARCH(2, 1) is better due to both in sample and out of sample accuracy. In contrast, from capturing asymmetric effect perspective MA(2) − EGARCH(1, 3) is better. Thus, there was no clear winner and hence the decision should depend on the purpose of the concerned people.

The Journal of Developing Areas, 2020

ABSTRACT:It has been widely accepted that the structure of population of a country can have signi... more ABSTRACT:It has been widely accepted that the structure of population of a country can have significant contribution towards its growth effort. With the proportional increase of relatively older group of people in developed countries alongside the proportional rise of the youth population in the developing part of the world, it is of paramount importance to understand the long term economic consequences of this changed structure of population. Despite having a favorable demographic composition, depending on public investment and policy strategy adopted, economies differ in terms of their ability to attain demographic dividend. The issue is therefore an empirical one which requires appropriate quantitative analysis. Against this backdrop, with the help of a 37-year long panel of 15 Asian countries, this study has made an attempt to understand the long run effect of changing demographic pattern on economic growth of Asian countries. Despite increased importance of demographic composition on labor supply, asset accumulation, savings, hence on the overall growth process, there is no literature focusing on the relationship from a cross-country perspective and while applying suitable methodological tools. Thus, this paper utilized econometric methods of panel data constructed using World Development Indicators (WDI) and Health Nutrition and Population Statistics (HNPS) from World Bank database to understand the linkage between dependency ratio and per capita GDP growth. Following cross section dependence test stationarity property of the variables has been diagnosed employing appropriate panel unit root tests. The short run and long run parameters have estimated with the help of Mean Group (MG), Pooled Mean Group (PMG) and Dynamic Fixed Effect (DFE) estimators. PMG estimates have been preferred over the DFE and MG. It revealed the fact that for the Asian countries Dependency Ratio (DR) does not have any short run impact on Per Capita GDP Growth (PCGDPG) but it has significant long run impact therefore with an increase in working age population in comparison to the non-working group, there is a resulting increase in per capita GDP growth of Asian countries. Since changed demographic composition can only result in higher economic growth, if complemented by effective public policies, this paper provides empirical evidences in favor of such policies of human resource development. Besides, in order to reap the maximum benefit from working age population while increasing investment, it is important to engage them in productive, growth enhancing activities and that requires investment in employment generation.

Health economics review, 2017