Scott Malcolm - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Scott Malcolm

2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL, 2001

How can rights of first refusal protect prime agricultural land? This paper develops a model for ... more How can rights of first refusal protect prime agricultural land? This paper develops a model for ex ante valuation of rights of first refusal based on differences in the value of a particular property, and likelihood of time of sale A procedure is outlined for governments to use these rights to prevent conversion.

American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Mar 1, 2015

General circulation models predict significant and accelerating changes in local patterns of prec... more General circulation models predict significant and accelerating changes in local patterns of precipitation and temperature during the twenty-first century. Agriculture's vulnerability to climate change will depend on both the biophysical impacts of climate change on crop yields and on the agricultural system's ability to adapt to changing production conditions. Shifts in the extent and distribution of irrigated and dryland production are a potentially important adaptation response. Farmer flexibility to adapt may be limited, however, by changes in the availability of irrigation water under future climate conditions. This study uses a suite of models to explore the biophysical and economic impacts of climate change on U.S. fieldcrop production under several potential future climate projections, and to explore the potential limits and opportunities for adaptation arising from shifting regional water balances. The study findings suggest that, while irrigation shortages attributable to climate change have varying effects on cropland use, the aggregate impacts on national production are small relative to the direct biophysical impacts of climate change on yield.

Amber Waves, Mar 1, 2009

Volatile petroleum prices, along with Federal policies aimed at reducing U.S. dependency on oil i... more Volatile petroleum prices, along with Federal policies aimed at reducing U.S. dependency on oil imports and mitigating climate change, have sparked rapid growth in biofuel demand. In response, production of agricultural commodities that serve as feedstock for biofuels has increased. Federal policy initiatives and private-sector investment point to continued growth in biofuel production and, consequently, increased demand for agricultural products. The Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007 includes provisions for a Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) to increase the supply of alternative fuel sources by requiring fuel producers to use at least 36 billion gallons of biofuel by 2022. The RFS provision establishes a level of 15 billion gallons of conventional ethanol by 2015 and at least 21 billion gallons of cellulosic (noncornstarch) ethanol and advanced biofuels (including ethanol from sugarcane and biodiesel) by 2022. The share of total domestic corn production supplying the ethanol market grew from 7.5 percent in 2001 to 22.6 percent in Federal mandates for biofuel production promote expanded crop acreage and shifts in cropping patterns and livestock production due to higher prices for corn and other grain crops. An increase in the extent of agricultural land in production and intensity of input use increases the potential for environmental degradation. Research that improves crop productivity and conversion efficiency, as well as conservation practices like no-till and buffer strips, could lessen the environmental impacts of biofuels.

Environmental Modeling & Assessment, Jun 1, 2005

The problem of selecting land for preservation of species has been a rich and active area of rese... more The problem of selecting land for preservation of species has been a rich and active area of research over the past two decades. Typically, reserve selection models have tried to maximize species diversity by preserving areas that contain the greatest number of species. However, ...

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 2017

Cover images: istockphoto.com Use of commercial and trade names does not imply approval or consti... more Cover images: istockphoto.com Use of commercial and trade names does not imply approval or constitute endorsement by USDA. To ensure the quality of its research reports and satisfy government-wide standards, ERS requires that all research reports with substantively new material be reviewed by qualified technical research peers. This technical peer review process, coordinated by ERS' Peer Review Coordinating Council, allows experts who possess the technical background, perspective, and expertise to provide an objective and meaningful assessment of the output's substantive content and clarity of communication during the publication's review. For more information on the Agency's peer review process, go to: http://www.ers.usda.gov/about-ers/peer-reviews.aspx In accordance with Federal civil rights law and U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) civil rights regulations and policies, the USDA, its Agencies, offices, and employees, and institutions participating in or administering USDA programs are prohibited from discriminating based on race, color, national origin, religion, sex, gender identity (including gender expression), sexual orientation, disability, age, marital status, family/parental status, income derived from a public assistance program, political beliefs, or reprisal or retaliation for prior civil rights activity, in any program or activity conducted or funded by USDA (not all bases apply to all programs). Remedies and complaint filing deadlines vary by program or incident. Persons with disabilities who require alternative means of communication for program information (e.g., Braille, large print, audiotape, American Sign Language, etc.) should contact the responsible Agency or USDA's TARGET Center at (202) 720-2600 (voice and TTY) or contact USDA through the Federal Relay Service at (800) 877-8339. Additionally, program information may be made available in languages other than English.

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Jul 1, 2014

2001 Conference (45th), January 23-25, 2001, Adelaide, Australia, 2001

Nature reserve planning models to maximize species protection are typically formulated for a sing... more Nature reserve planning models to maximize species protection are typically formulated for a single period using certain data. In practice, however, parcels must be acquired over time. The status of a parcel may change due to conversion to alternate land use. Populations of species to be protected may change, as well. A twostage stochastic program that maximizes expected species protection with annual budget constraints is proposed where parcels available for set aside have associated probabilities of being available for acquisition and species coverage. Runs on hypothetical data show that solutions differ from the single period model and depend strongly on the probability of acquisition in future periods.

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 2001

2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts, 2016

Assessing the Costs to Agriculture Background Each summer a large hypoxic zone forms in the Gulf ... more Assessing the Costs to Agriculture Background Each summer a large hypoxic zone forms in the Gulf of Mexico, where dissolved oxygen is too low for many aquatic species to survive. This hypoxic zone is fueled by nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) runoff from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB). Excessive nutrient loads trigger excessive algae growth that rapidly consumes oxygen during decomposition. This decomposition in bottom waters, coupled with water column stratification that prevents mixing with oxygen-rich water at the surface, results in hypoxic conditions. Much of the nitrogen and phosphorus loads originate from sources relatively far upstream from the Gulf. Sources of nitrogen include agriculture-predominantly row crop agriculture and animal feeding operations-atmospheric deposition, urban runoff, and industrial and municipal discharges. Sources of phosphorus include agriculture, urban runoff, point sources, stream channels, and natural soil deposits. Nutrient enrichment impacts living organisms in a number of ways (Rabalais and Turner, 2001; Diaz and Rosenberg, 2008; Rabalais et al., 2010). Mobile organisms (e.g. fish, shrimp) can often move out of hypoxic zones when oxygen levels start to fall. Bottom-dwelling mobile organisms such as eels are forced towards the surface where oxygen levels are higher, exposing them to greater predation. Benthic or bottom-dwelling organisms show visible signs of stress and eventually die as oxygen levels drop (Baustian, Craig, and Rabalais 2009; Baustian and Rabalais, 2009). In general, benthic communities in seasonally hypoxic waters are less diverse and contain less biomass than a healthy system, providing less food resources for bottom-feeding

Ecological Economics, Apr 1, 2006

The preservation of species diversity generally suggests protection of either the greatest number... more The preservation of species diversity generally suggests protection of either the greatest number of species possible or all species. Requiring representation of each species in at least one parcel in the system and seeking the minimum number of parcels in the reserve system to ...

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs and activi... more The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs and activities on the basis of race, color, national origin, age, disability, and, where applicable, sex, marital status, familial status, parental status, religion, sexual orientation, genetic information, political beliefs, reprisal, or because all or a part of an individual's income is derived from any public assistance program. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (Braille, large print, audiotape, etc.

Amber Waves, Feb 1, 2013

While the impact that climate change will have o n future gro wing co nditio ns in specific areas... more While the impact that climate change will have o n future gro wing co nditio ns in specific areas o f the co untry remains uncertain, the ability o f farmers to adapt to climate change-thro ugh planting decisio ns, farming practices, and use o f techno lo gy-can reduce its impact o n pro ductio n, farm co mmo dity prices, and farmer returns. Evidence suggests that the detrimental impacts o f climate change increase mo destly at the natio nal level by 20 30 under ho tter and drier weather co nditio ns; no netheless,

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 2006

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Nov 1, 2009

The Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007 established specifi c targets for the pro... more The Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007 established specifi c targets for the production of biofuel in the United States. Until advanced technologies become commercially viable, meeting these targets will increase demand for traditional agricultural commodities used to produce ethanol, resulting in land-use, production, and price changes throughout the farm sector. This report summarizes the estimated effects of meeting the EISA targets for 2015 on regional agricultural production and the environment. Meeting EISA targets for ethanol production is estimated to expand U.S. cropped acreage by nearly 5 million acres by 2015, an increase of 1.6 percent over what would otherwise be expected. Much of the growth comes from corn acreage, which increases by 3.5 percent over baseline projections. Water quality and soil carbon will also be affected, in some cases by greater percentages than suggested by changes in the amount of cropped land. The economic and environmental implications of displacing a portion of corn ethanol production with ethanol produced from crop residues are also estimated.

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 2008

Recent legislation has set ambitious targets for cellulosic ethanol to be realized in the not-too... more Recent legislation has set ambitious targets for cellulosic ethanol to be realized in the not-too-distant future. While corn-based ethanol will continue to be the most important supply, its share-but not the quantity-will diminish over time. How agriculture responds to market and environmental challenges will be in large part governed by the evolution and adoption of cellulosic ethanol production technology. One possible scenario is that development of cellulosic production technology occurs more rapidly than expected, before the establishment of alternative cellulosic feedstocks, enabling crop residues to be used in lieu of corn during the transition to dedicated energy crops. This article examines the market and environmental consequences of shifting biofuel production from corn to cellulosic production technology fed by crop residues. Results show that reducing corn required for ethanol by increasing production of crop residuebased cellulosic ethanol shifts crop production and changes tillage and rotation choice. These changes demonstrate mixed effects on key environmental indicators, with benefits and adverse consequences varying regionally.

This dissertation presents models for incorporating the environmental impacts resulting from the ... more This dissertation presents models for incorporating the environmental impacts resulting from the operation and expansion of the electric power sector when there is uncertainty in customer demand and other associated parameters. Novel solution techniques are presented to solve the complex mathematical programming models that result. The models are used to describe and analyze planning problems faced by the power system in India. The first model gives a robust optimization formulation of the capacity planning problem. The robust model model produces solutions which are relatively insensitive to uncertainties in model parameters. Thus, plans which are good independent of future realizations of uncertain parameters can be found. Tradeoffs between the conflicting goals of emissions reduction, excess capacity and unmet demand are addressed. The second model describes a long-term generation and transmission capacity expansion model under demand, supply and cost uncertainty. Policies are introduced to control emissions; an emissions tax, restricting emissions to a fixed level, and limiting expected emissions, given uncertainty. Benders\u27 decomposition is used to solve the resulting mixed integer stochastic program. This modeling approach provides a mechanism for evaluating the tradeoffs between meeting required load, reducing emissions, and allowing some demand to remain unmet. In the third model we investigate the problem of planning for emissions reduction. We develop a multi-area model to optimize emissions reduction control strategies. Like the previous model, it uses Benders\u27 decomposition to solve the resulting mixed integer program. We develop a multi-area probabilistic production costing method to solve the operational subproblems and compute the dual multipliers for use in the master problem. These models are developed in the GAMS modeling environment, and are exercised on data from the power system of India. We contribute to the literature by expanding the treatment of environmental issues in an investment planning framework, and also by gaining insight into how uncertainty drives the solution of the models