Sherman Robinson - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Sherman Robinson

Journal of Development Economics, 1982

This study develops an analytical framework to account for sources of rapid economic growth in Ch... more This study develops an analytical framework to account for sources of rapid economic growth in China. The traditional Solow approach includes only two sources, i.e. increased use of inputs and technical change. We expanded the approach to include a third source of economic growth—structural change. The empirical results show that structural change has contributed to growth significantly by reallocating resources from low productivity to high productivity sectors, especially by moving labor from agricultural production to rural enterprises. We also found that the returns to capital investment in both agricultural production and rural enterprises are much higher than those in urban sectors, indicating underinvestment in rural areas. On the other hand, labor productivity in the agricultural sector remains low, a result of the still large surpluses of labor in the sector. Therefore, the further development of rural enterprises and increase in labor flow among sectors and across regions ...

This study quantitatively analyzes the general equilibrium effects of declines in world demand fo... more This study quantitatively analyzes the general equilibrium effects of declines in world demand for tobacco products. The study finds that tobacco exports and production in the three developing countries, Malawi, Zimbabwe, and Turkey, would be badly hit if world tobacco prices fall due to the decline in tobacco demand. Moreover, for a given decrease in the world tobacco price, the more important the tobacco sector is in an economy, the worse the tobacco sector is hit. Tobacco is quite important to the Malawian and Zimbabwean economies as tobacco production and trade accounted for, respectively, 17% and 43% of agricultural GDP and tobacco exports accounted for 50% and 35% of national exports in these two countries. The negative effects of a decline in world tobacco prices on the Malawian and Zimbabwean economies are much larger than that on the Turkish economy. In the case of China, tobacco production, marketing, cigarette processing, distribution, and foreign trade are strictly contr...

Much of the debate over whether or not developing countries gain from regional trade agreements (... more Much of the debate over whether or not developing countries gain from regional trade agreements (RTA's) has focused on two characteristics that are common to developing countries: their relatively high tariffs and their high trade dependencies on one or a few developed trade partners. In this paper, we address a third common characteristic: their use of distorting domestic policies that are closely linked to trade restrictions. We argue that participation in an RTA can create pressures for domestic policy reforms. We analyze the case of a small country, Mexico, forming an RTA with two larger countries, the U.S. and Canada, in the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Mexico exhibits all three characteristics of a developing country: relatively high tariffs, a high trade dependency on the U.S., and an extensive and pervasive system of farm support that was linked to the restriction of trade. For the analysis, we use a 26- sector, multi-country, computable general equilibri...

In this paper, we present a comparative analysis of the extent to which indirect taxes, tariffs, ... more In this paper, we present a comparative analysis of the extent to which indirect taxes, tariffs, and exchange rates affected relative price incentives for agricultural production in a representative sample of 15 developing countries in the 1990s. Empirical studies from the 1980s, using partial equilibrium methodologies, supported the view that policies in many developing countries imparted a major incentive bias against agriculture. Eliminating this bias was one of the goals of policy reform strategies, including structural adjustment programs, supported by the World Bank and others; and many countries undertook such reforms in the 1990s. In our sample, general equilibrium analysis indicates that, in the 1990s, the economywide system of indirect taxes, including tariffs and export taxes, significantly discriminated against agriculture in only one country, was largely neutral in five, provided a moderate subsidy to agriculture in four, and strongly favored agriculture in five. Earlie...

The effects of a world oil price shock on U.S. agriculture are analyzed in an economywide environ... more The effects of a world oil price shock on U.S. agriculture are analyzed in an economywide environment. We use an input-output model to analyze the direct and indirect cost linkages between energy and other sectors of the economy. Then, to allow sectoral output adjustment and the effects on the U.S. current account, we use the U.S. Department of Agricultural/Economic Research Service Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze the sectoral effects under three different macro adjustment scenarios. The effects on agriculture are not limited to the direct and indirect energy costs and government support programs for agricultural also matter.

There is a continuing debate about whether international trade is responsible for the observed sk... more There is a continuing debate about whether international trade is responsible for the observed skilled-unskilled wage gap. In this paper we present a general equilibrium trade model with differentiated goods. We begin with an analytical model and show how changes in relative factor returns can be decomposed into changes in commodity prices, changes in the trade balance, and changes in the factor endowment Then we use a computable general equilibrium (CGE) trade model calibrated to the U.S. economy in 1982 to analyze the effects of these shocks, as well as technology changes, observed in the U.S. in the 1980's.

The Asian financial crisis led to a major devaluation of the Indonesian exchange rate, macro inst... more The Asian financial crisis led to a major devaluation of the Indonesian exchange rate, macro instability, and the need for a "structural adjustment" program. The real devaluation affects prices throughout the economy and has a major impact on growth, production, deforestation, and income distribution in the Sumatera region. This paper uses computable general equilibrium (CGE) models —a national model and a regional model of Sumatera— that focus on agriculture to explore the impact of a real devaluation on the economy of Sumatera. The model incorporates commodity and factor market linkages between Sumatera, the rest of Indonesia, and the world (through commodity trade). Simulations are conducted for the short and medium run under alternative scenarios of macro adjustment. Structural adjustment causes Sumatera's economy to contract in both the short and medium run. Devaluation leads to increases in the prices of tradable goods. Regional exports increase, mainly from the ...

New advances in biotechnology have enhanced production of maize, soybeans, and cotton. Consumer r... more New advances in biotechnology have enhanced production of maize, soybeans, and cotton. Consumer reactions to the new technology have been mixed. Both the supply shock, from an increase in productivity or a reduction in input use, and the demand shock, which is determined by the consumer response to consuming GM foods, affect production, trade, and prices of GM foods. In this paper, we survey models that analyze the market effects of GM technology. The results depend on a number of important issues such as the cost of market segmentation and labeling, the nature of the productivity shock to producers of GM products, and the extent of any adverse reaction to GM products by consumers. The results from global trade models indicate that, if costs of labelling and market segmentation are not large, world markets can adjust to the various scenarios without generating extreme price differentials between GM and non-GM commodities or extreme changes in the pattern of world production and trad...

No abstract is available for this item. ... To our knowledge, this item is not available for down... more No abstract is available for this item. ... To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options: 1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online. 2. Check on the ...

US agricultural economic growth in this century has been characterized by a slow rise in the dema... more US agricultural economic growth in this century has been characterized by a slow rise in the demand for food and faster growth in farm output as against nonfarm productivity. In such an environment, one expects the size of the farm sector to decline as a share of the rest of the economy. What is not so clear is the effectiveness of the price system in signaling the appropriate resource adjustments or of the resource market in responding to available signals. We examine four terms-of-trade measures conceptually and, since 1929, empirically. We find that even distortions from farm programs have not offset the long-term trend of declining terms of trade. Labor and capital markets respond, albeit imperfectly and slowly.

This paper uses a two-country, computable general equilibrium (CGE), trade model to analyze the i... more This paper uses a two-country, computable general equilibrium (CGE), trade model to analyze the impact on Mexico and the U.S. of the precipitous peso depreciation in late 1994 and early 1995, and of the policy response to the crisis. The model includes explicit treatment of agricultural policies in the two countries, and of labor-market linkages, including rural-urban migration within Mexico and Mexico-U.S. migration. We explore "hard," "medium," and "soft" landing scenarios, which differ in the extent of assumed unemployment and fall in capacity utilization, and in the nature of the structural adjustment program in Mexico. For each scenario, we consider a range of balance-of-trade adjustments, and resulting changes in the equilibrium real exchange rate. The results indicate that both countries benefit from Mexico achieving a soft landing. It is important to achieve a new equilibrium exchange rate quickly, and overshooting is costly for both countries. ...

Does a restrictive foreign trade regime reduce the effectiveness of agricultural productivity gro... more Does a restrictive foreign trade regime reduce the effectiveness of agricultural productivity growth in promoting overall income growth and equity? Based on counterfactual simulations using a multi-sector, computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Philippine economy, this paper investigates quantitatively the economywide income and equity effects of crop productivity growth during the "green revolution period" 1965-80 under alternative trade policies. The results indicate an inequitable distribution of household income gains under the historical, highly restrictive, trade regime. Trade liberalization is found to favor rural over urban households; small-farm households are the biggest gainers among the five household groups, while Metro Manila households are the biggest losers. Such positive redistributive impact is larger the greater is the extent of trade liberalization. The effect on gross domestic product is also significantly positive, so that the movement towa...

Journal of Development Economics, 1982

This study develops an analytical framework to account for sources of rapid economic growth in Ch... more This study develops an analytical framework to account for sources of rapid economic growth in China. The traditional Solow approach includes only two sources, i.e. increased use of inputs and technical change. We expanded the approach to include a third source of economic growth—structural change. The empirical results show that structural change has contributed to growth significantly by reallocating resources from low productivity to high productivity sectors, especially by moving labor from agricultural production to rural enterprises. We also found that the returns to capital investment in both agricultural production and rural enterprises are much higher than those in urban sectors, indicating underinvestment in rural areas. On the other hand, labor productivity in the agricultural sector remains low, a result of the still large surpluses of labor in the sector. Therefore, the further development of rural enterprises and increase in labor flow among sectors and across regions ...

This study quantitatively analyzes the general equilibrium effects of declines in world demand fo... more This study quantitatively analyzes the general equilibrium effects of declines in world demand for tobacco products. The study finds that tobacco exports and production in the three developing countries, Malawi, Zimbabwe, and Turkey, would be badly hit if world tobacco prices fall due to the decline in tobacco demand. Moreover, for a given decrease in the world tobacco price, the more important the tobacco sector is in an economy, the worse the tobacco sector is hit. Tobacco is quite important to the Malawian and Zimbabwean economies as tobacco production and trade accounted for, respectively, 17% and 43% of agricultural GDP and tobacco exports accounted for 50% and 35% of national exports in these two countries. The negative effects of a decline in world tobacco prices on the Malawian and Zimbabwean economies are much larger than that on the Turkish economy. In the case of China, tobacco production, marketing, cigarette processing, distribution, and foreign trade are strictly contr...

Much of the debate over whether or not developing countries gain from regional trade agreements (... more Much of the debate over whether or not developing countries gain from regional trade agreements (RTA's) has focused on two characteristics that are common to developing countries: their relatively high tariffs and their high trade dependencies on one or a few developed trade partners. In this paper, we address a third common characteristic: their use of distorting domestic policies that are closely linked to trade restrictions. We argue that participation in an RTA can create pressures for domestic policy reforms. We analyze the case of a small country, Mexico, forming an RTA with two larger countries, the U.S. and Canada, in the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Mexico exhibits all three characteristics of a developing country: relatively high tariffs, a high trade dependency on the U.S., and an extensive and pervasive system of farm support that was linked to the restriction of trade. For the analysis, we use a 26- sector, multi-country, computable general equilibri...

In this paper, we present a comparative analysis of the extent to which indirect taxes, tariffs, ... more In this paper, we present a comparative analysis of the extent to which indirect taxes, tariffs, and exchange rates affected relative price incentives for agricultural production in a representative sample of 15 developing countries in the 1990s. Empirical studies from the 1980s, using partial equilibrium methodologies, supported the view that policies in many developing countries imparted a major incentive bias against agriculture. Eliminating this bias was one of the goals of policy reform strategies, including structural adjustment programs, supported by the World Bank and others; and many countries undertook such reforms in the 1990s. In our sample, general equilibrium analysis indicates that, in the 1990s, the economywide system of indirect taxes, including tariffs and export taxes, significantly discriminated against agriculture in only one country, was largely neutral in five, provided a moderate subsidy to agriculture in four, and strongly favored agriculture in five. Earlie...

The effects of a world oil price shock on U.S. agriculture are analyzed in an economywide environ... more The effects of a world oil price shock on U.S. agriculture are analyzed in an economywide environment. We use an input-output model to analyze the direct and indirect cost linkages between energy and other sectors of the economy. Then, to allow sectoral output adjustment and the effects on the U.S. current account, we use the U.S. Department of Agricultural/Economic Research Service Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze the sectoral effects under three different macro adjustment scenarios. The effects on agriculture are not limited to the direct and indirect energy costs and government support programs for agricultural also matter.

There is a continuing debate about whether international trade is responsible for the observed sk... more There is a continuing debate about whether international trade is responsible for the observed skilled-unskilled wage gap. In this paper we present a general equilibrium trade model with differentiated goods. We begin with an analytical model and show how changes in relative factor returns can be decomposed into changes in commodity prices, changes in the trade balance, and changes in the factor endowment Then we use a computable general equilibrium (CGE) trade model calibrated to the U.S. economy in 1982 to analyze the effects of these shocks, as well as technology changes, observed in the U.S. in the 1980's.

The Asian financial crisis led to a major devaluation of the Indonesian exchange rate, macro inst... more The Asian financial crisis led to a major devaluation of the Indonesian exchange rate, macro instability, and the need for a "structural adjustment" program. The real devaluation affects prices throughout the economy and has a major impact on growth, production, deforestation, and income distribution in the Sumatera region. This paper uses computable general equilibrium (CGE) models —a national model and a regional model of Sumatera— that focus on agriculture to explore the impact of a real devaluation on the economy of Sumatera. The model incorporates commodity and factor market linkages between Sumatera, the rest of Indonesia, and the world (through commodity trade). Simulations are conducted for the short and medium run under alternative scenarios of macro adjustment. Structural adjustment causes Sumatera's economy to contract in both the short and medium run. Devaluation leads to increases in the prices of tradable goods. Regional exports increase, mainly from the ...

New advances in biotechnology have enhanced production of maize, soybeans, and cotton. Consumer r... more New advances in biotechnology have enhanced production of maize, soybeans, and cotton. Consumer reactions to the new technology have been mixed. Both the supply shock, from an increase in productivity or a reduction in input use, and the demand shock, which is determined by the consumer response to consuming GM foods, affect production, trade, and prices of GM foods. In this paper, we survey models that analyze the market effects of GM technology. The results depend on a number of important issues such as the cost of market segmentation and labeling, the nature of the productivity shock to producers of GM products, and the extent of any adverse reaction to GM products by consumers. The results from global trade models indicate that, if costs of labelling and market segmentation are not large, world markets can adjust to the various scenarios without generating extreme price differentials between GM and non-GM commodities or extreme changes in the pattern of world production and trad...

No abstract is available for this item. ... To our knowledge, this item is not available for down... more No abstract is available for this item. ... To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options: 1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online. 2. Check on the ...

US agricultural economic growth in this century has been characterized by a slow rise in the dema... more US agricultural economic growth in this century has been characterized by a slow rise in the demand for food and faster growth in farm output as against nonfarm productivity. In such an environment, one expects the size of the farm sector to decline as a share of the rest of the economy. What is not so clear is the effectiveness of the price system in signaling the appropriate resource adjustments or of the resource market in responding to available signals. We examine four terms-of-trade measures conceptually and, since 1929, empirically. We find that even distortions from farm programs have not offset the long-term trend of declining terms of trade. Labor and capital markets respond, albeit imperfectly and slowly.

This paper uses a two-country, computable general equilibrium (CGE), trade model to analyze the i... more This paper uses a two-country, computable general equilibrium (CGE), trade model to analyze the impact on Mexico and the U.S. of the precipitous peso depreciation in late 1994 and early 1995, and of the policy response to the crisis. The model includes explicit treatment of agricultural policies in the two countries, and of labor-market linkages, including rural-urban migration within Mexico and Mexico-U.S. migration. We explore "hard," "medium," and "soft" landing scenarios, which differ in the extent of assumed unemployment and fall in capacity utilization, and in the nature of the structural adjustment program in Mexico. For each scenario, we consider a range of balance-of-trade adjustments, and resulting changes in the equilibrium real exchange rate. The results indicate that both countries benefit from Mexico achieving a soft landing. It is important to achieve a new equilibrium exchange rate quickly, and overshooting is costly for both countries. ...

Does a restrictive foreign trade regime reduce the effectiveness of agricultural productivity gro... more Does a restrictive foreign trade regime reduce the effectiveness of agricultural productivity growth in promoting overall income growth and equity? Based on counterfactual simulations using a multi-sector, computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Philippine economy, this paper investigates quantitatively the economywide income and equity effects of crop productivity growth during the "green revolution period" 1965-80 under alternative trade policies. The results indicate an inequitable distribution of household income gains under the historical, highly restrictive, trade regime. Trade liberalization is found to favor rural over urban households; small-farm households are the biggest gainers among the five household groups, while Metro Manila households are the biggest losers. Such positive redistributive impact is larger the greater is the extent of trade liberalization. The effect on gross domestic product is also significantly positive, so that the movement towa...