N. Sitter - Profile on Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by N. Sitter

Comparative Social Research, 2021

It is often said that we live in a time of crisis for social democracy. Many of the West European... more It is often said that we live in a time of crisis for social democracy. Many of the West European centre-left parties that seemed the natural parties of government in the second half of the twentieth century, are in decline. The most common long-term explanations centre on a shrinking working class, a widening gap between the party elite and their core voters, and the challenges from new populist parties and/or greens. Short-term policy factors include the failure to address the recent financial and refugee crises. None of these factors carry much explanatory weight for developments in Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic in the three decades since the transition from communism. We find that much of the explanation for the rise and the fall of the five social democratic parties in these countries lies in the dynamics of party competition and party system change. All parties face dilemmas of policy, electoral appeal and coalition-building. The Central European cases suggest that it is how social democrats handle such challenges, and make difficult choices about strategy and tactics, that ultimately shapes their long-term fate. Centre-left parties are stronger masters of their fortunes than much of the literature on the decline of social democracy suggests. Consequently, seeking a common structural explanation for the rise and decline of social democratic parties might be a double fallacy: both empirically misleading and a poor base for policy advice.

The thesis approaches the development, stability and change of party systems in Hungary, Poland a... more The thesis approaches the development, stability and change of party systems in Hungary, Poland and the Czech and Slovak Republics since the collapse of communism from a comparative politics perspective, thereby raising questions about whether party systems have developed, about the peculiarity of these systems and about the factors that drive party system development and change. The analysis of East Central European party systems therefore invites questions about party systems theory in general, hypothesising that parties are becoming increasingly independent of extra-parliamentary constraints. Applied to East Central Europe, this suggests that party system development has been driven by the parties, principally their strategic choices under conditions of economic and political transition. Nationalism provides a further dimension without which post-communist party competition and coalition building cannot be fully understood. The comparative politics analysis of the four East Centr...

Public administration and policy in the European Union: an overview

Handbook of Public Administration and Policy in the European Union, 2005

This part presents an introduction to the volume Handbook of Public Administration and Policy in ... more This part presents an introduction to the volume Handbook of Public Administration and Policy in the European Union. It provides an overview of the volume as such.

Perspectives on Politics, 2020

In the academic literature, Hungary and Poland are often cited as paradigmatic cases of democrati... more In the academic literature, Hungary and Poland are often cited as paradigmatic cases of democratic backsliding. However, as the backsliding narrative gained traction, the term has been applied to the rest of the post-communist region, including the Czech Republic and Slovakia. We suggest that this diagnosis is in part based on conceptual stretching, and set out to rescue the concept as an analytical tool. We then assess the extent of backsliding in the four Visegrád countries, explaining backsliding (and the relative lack of it) in terms of motive, opportunity, and the strength or weakness of opposing or constraining forces. We conclude that the situation is not as desperate as some commentators would have it: democratic backsliding in Hungary and Poland was contingent on a few exceptional factors, and EU leaders therefore need not be paralysed by the fear of contagion when they contemplate forceful action against backsliding member states.

East European Politics, 2013

During the first two decades after the collapse of communism 37 political parties won representat... more During the first two decades after the collapse of communism 37 political parties won representation in the Czech, Slovak or Hungarian Parliaments. By 2012, 22 of these parties had failed in the sense that they have fallen below the five-percent electoral threshold at least once. This set of failed parties includes a wide range of parties, from the far right and nationalist flanks to unreconstructed communists, including centre, green, agrarian, Christian and social democrat parties. Some were represented in parliament for one term only, others were in parliament for two decades. In this article we explore how and why these parties fell out of parliament. Beyond the obvious answer -that they failed to win enough votes -five factors involve particularly high political risk for political parties. Two system-level factors are somewhat beyond the control of the smaller parties: changes in the salience of cleavages and the electoral system. However, the other three are directly linked to the parties' strategies for competition: whether they participate in coalition government as a junior partner, how they manage internal dissent, and the party's organisational strength.

Party Politics, 2015

Ilter Turan examines the place of independent candidates (pp. 157-177). As a whole, Massicard and... more Ilter Turan examines the place of independent candidates (pp. 157-177). As a whole, Massicard and Watts' volume addresses some of the commonly ignored fundamental dynamics of Turkish party politics and interrogates some of the widespread assumptions of the mainstream literature. Through innovative approaches and a critical engagement with the centre-periphery paradigm, the studies in this volume have implied the pervasiveness of the personalisation of politics in Turkey beyond the level of national leadership. In conclusion, these two works together represent the plurality of perspectives on political parties in Turkey despite the persistent centrality of the centre-periphery paradigm and party system approach. The second volume in particular makes it clear that new directions and research agendas are finding their feet in the scholarship on political parties in Turkey.

DISC Seminar: The Patterns of Party Relations: Methodological and Regional Analyses

Global Re-ordering: Evolution through European Networks (GR: EEN)

The liberalisation of European Union Energy Markets: Common Policy and Plural Institutions

Page 1. The Liberalisation of European Union Energy Markets: Common Policy and Plural Institution... more Page 1. The Liberalisation of European Union Energy Markets: Common Policy and Plural Institutions NICK SITTER Department of International Relations and European Studies, Central European University, Budapest e-mail: Sittern@CEU.hu ...

The politics of opposition and European integration in Scandinavia: Is Euro‐scepticism a government‐opposition dynamic?

West European Politics, 2001

... to European integration is therefore linked inextricably to the party system and patterns of ... more ... to European integration is therefore linked inextricably to the party system and patterns of competition. While this explains the broad range of Euro-scepticism in Western Europe, it also hints at a possible broader relationship between government-opposition competition and ...

West European Politics, 2006

after four years in opposition, Jens Stoltenberg led the Norwegian Labour Party to electoral vict... more after four years in opposition, Jens Stoltenberg led the Norwegian Labour Party to electoral victory at the head of a 'red-green' alliance that included the Socialist Left and the rural Centre Party. This brought about the first (peace-time) Labour-led coalition, the first majority government for 20 years, and the first coalition to include the far left. The centre-right coalition of the Conservatives, the Christian People's Party and the Liberals lost badly, and the populist right-wing Progress Party became the second largest party. Four years earlier (Norway uses a fixed-term electoral cycle) Stoltenberg had fought the 2001 election as a modernising prime minister cast in the Tony Blair mould, defending a record of public sector modernisation and privatisation, and lost badly. 1 Labour's 2005 campaign was a stark contrast. The Blairite 'third way' rhetoric was replaced by criticism of the centre-right's public sector reforms; underscored by the new alliance. Was this, then, the triumph of the return to 'second way' social democracy?

Political Studies, 2009

Over the last three decades many Western European social democratic parties have been challenged ... more Over the last three decades many Western European social democratic parties have been challenged by populist radical right parties. The growth and success of parties on the right flank of the party system represents a triple challenge to the social democrats: they increase the salience of issues traditionally ‘owned’ by the right; they appeal to working-class voters who traditionally support the centre left; and they may facilitate the formation of centre-right governments. This article explores social democratic parties’ strategic options in the face of this challenge, and tests the widespread assumption that the centre-left parties respond by taking a tougher stance on issues related to immigration and integration. Comparative analysis of developments in Austria, Denmark, the Netherlands and Norway reveals significant variation in the substance, scope and pace of the strategic responses of their social democratic parties. And it suggests that those responses are influenced not onl...

Perspectives on European Politics and Society, 2002

This article analyses the development of competitive party politics in post-communist East Centra... more This article analyses the development of competitive party politics in post-communist East Central Europe from a comparative perspective. The central concerns are party system stabilisation and change in Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, and implications for comparative theory. Starting from Lipset and Rokkan's 'cleavage model', the article assesses the relevance of their key variables for party politics in the 1990s. Although there are considerable similarities (particularly in termsof choice of electoral systems), the cleavages, relationships between voters and parties, and the very nature of parties all differ considerably from the early Twentieth Century West European cases. Party strategy emerges as the key variable in explaining patterns of party system stability and change. Variations result from: (i) the prevalence of catch-all type strategies; (ii) interest representation strategies; and (iii) the presence of parties that have staked out positions on the anks of the system. The conclusions concerning the central role of party strategy are not con ned to East Central Europe, but are also pertinent to the study of party system change in Western Europe.

The last quarter of a century has seen two broad waves of regulatory reform. The first wave, whic... more The last quarter of a century has seen two broad waves of regulatory reform. The first wave, which started in the 1980s, was predicated on the assumption that privatization and liberalization would engender increased economic efficiency, and that this twin process would involve considerable deregulation. In the event this proved both unrealistic and impractical. Regulatory agencies that were established on a temporary basis have turned into permanent organizations, and the establishment of effective competition in markets that were previously dominated by public monopolies has required considerable re-regulation. The second, current, wave of regulatory reform duly focuses on the proper design of regulatory authorities, and in particular the question of agencies' independence from political interference. The present paper reviews the normative and positive literature on independent regulatory agencies, addressing why they have been deemed desirable and why they have been established. The motive for establishing independent regulators is directly related to how they are expected to operate, and in turn how they in actually operate. In contrast to earlier suggestions that degrees of independence reflect the quest for efficient regulation, or that they reflect compromises between commitments to credibility and political oversight, the present paper suggests that regulatory reform may be driven other motives as well. To some extent, regulatory independence reflects the degree to which politicians seek to bind their successors or obfuscate the responsibility for risky decisions. If so, the democratic challenge is deliberate institutional choices, not runaway agencies.

DAVID REDVALDSEN. The Labour Party in Britain and Norway: Elections and the Pursuit of Power between the World Wars. (International Library of Political Studies, number 50.) New York: I. B. Tauris. 2011. Pp. xxiv, 206. 56.50

The American Historical Review, 2012

Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics, 2019

Democratic backsliding in European Union (EU) member states is not only a policy challenge for th... more Democratic backsliding in European Union (EU) member states is not only a policy challenge for the EU, but also a potential existential crisis. If the EU does too little to deal with member state regimes that go back on their commitments to democracy and the rule of law, this risks undermining the EU from within. On the other hand, if the EU takes drastic action, this might split the EU. This article explores the nature and dynamics of democratic backsliding in EU member states, and analyses the EU’s capacity, policy tools and political will to address the challenge. Empirically it draws on the cases that have promoted serious criticism from the Commission and the European Parliament: Hungary, Poland, and to a lesser extent, Romania. After reviewing the literature and defining backsliding as a gradual, deliberate, but open-ended process of de-democratization, the article analyzes the dynamics of backsliding and the EU’s difficulties in dealing with this challenge to liberal democrac...

In the two decades that have passed since the collapse of communism, 39 parties crossed the elect... more In the two decades that have passed since the collapse of communism, 39 parties crossed the electoral threshold in the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary. Of these, 23 subsequently failed. Only two parties managed to return on their own (one failed again). One is represented as part of an electoral alliance. Some have merged with other parties, some have ceased to exist, and some maintain a twilight existence. We map and analyse the fate of parties that have fallen below the electoral threshold, and explore why some parties cease operations relatively quickly while others soldier on or maintain a 'zombie-like' existence. The core factors are the opportunity structures provided by other parties in terms of offers of alliances, mergers and/or new homes for the party elites; the existence of alternative arenas for competition than the national legislature (or national party lists); and the organisational strength of the party that falls below the threshold.

Books by N. Sitter

Social Democracy in the 21st Century (Comparative Social Research, Vol. 35), 2021

It is often said that we live in a time of crisis for social democracy. Many of the West European... more It is often said that we live in a time of crisis for social democracy. Many of the West European centre-left parties that seemed the natural parties of government in the second half of the twentieth century, are in decline. The most common long-term explanations centre on a shrinking working class, a widening gap between the party elite and their core voters, and the challenges from new populist parties and/or greens. Short-term policy factors include the failure to address the recent financial and refugee crises. None of these factors carry much explanatory weight for developments in Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic in the three decades since the transition from communism. We find that much of the explanation for the rise and the fall of the five social democratic parties in these countries lies in the dynamics of party competition and party system change. All parties face dilemmas of policy, electoral appeal and coalition-building. The Central European cases suggest that it is how social democrats handle such challenges, and make difficult choices about strategy and tactics, that ultimately shapes their long-term fate. Centre-left parties are stronger masters of their fortunes than much of the literature on the decline of social democracy suggests. Consequently, seeking a common structural explanation for the rise and decline of social democratic parties might be a double fallacy: both empirically misleading and a poor base for policy advice.

Comparative Social Research, 2021

It is often said that we live in a time of crisis for social democracy. Many of the West European... more It is often said that we live in a time of crisis for social democracy. Many of the West European centre-left parties that seemed the natural parties of government in the second half of the twentieth century, are in decline. The most common long-term explanations centre on a shrinking working class, a widening gap between the party elite and their core voters, and the challenges from new populist parties and/or greens. Short-term policy factors include the failure to address the recent financial and refugee crises. None of these factors carry much explanatory weight for developments in Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic in the three decades since the transition from communism. We find that much of the explanation for the rise and the fall of the five social democratic parties in these countries lies in the dynamics of party competition and party system change. All parties face dilemmas of policy, electoral appeal and coalition-building. The Central European cases suggest that it is how social democrats handle such challenges, and make difficult choices about strategy and tactics, that ultimately shapes their long-term fate. Centre-left parties are stronger masters of their fortunes than much of the literature on the decline of social democracy suggests. Consequently, seeking a common structural explanation for the rise and decline of social democratic parties might be a double fallacy: both empirically misleading and a poor base for policy advice.

The thesis approaches the development, stability and change of party systems in Hungary, Poland a... more The thesis approaches the development, stability and change of party systems in Hungary, Poland and the Czech and Slovak Republics since the collapse of communism from a comparative politics perspective, thereby raising questions about whether party systems have developed, about the peculiarity of these systems and about the factors that drive party system development and change. The analysis of East Central European party systems therefore invites questions about party systems theory in general, hypothesising that parties are becoming increasingly independent of extra-parliamentary constraints. Applied to East Central Europe, this suggests that party system development has been driven by the parties, principally their strategic choices under conditions of economic and political transition. Nationalism provides a further dimension without which post-communist party competition and coalition building cannot be fully understood. The comparative politics analysis of the four East Centr...

Public administration and policy in the European Union: an overview

Handbook of Public Administration and Policy in the European Union, 2005

This part presents an introduction to the volume Handbook of Public Administration and Policy in ... more This part presents an introduction to the volume Handbook of Public Administration and Policy in the European Union. It provides an overview of the volume as such.

Perspectives on Politics, 2020

In the academic literature, Hungary and Poland are often cited as paradigmatic cases of democrati... more In the academic literature, Hungary and Poland are often cited as paradigmatic cases of democratic backsliding. However, as the backsliding narrative gained traction, the term has been applied to the rest of the post-communist region, including the Czech Republic and Slovakia. We suggest that this diagnosis is in part based on conceptual stretching, and set out to rescue the concept as an analytical tool. We then assess the extent of backsliding in the four Visegrád countries, explaining backsliding (and the relative lack of it) in terms of motive, opportunity, and the strength or weakness of opposing or constraining forces. We conclude that the situation is not as desperate as some commentators would have it: democratic backsliding in Hungary and Poland was contingent on a few exceptional factors, and EU leaders therefore need not be paralysed by the fear of contagion when they contemplate forceful action against backsliding member states.

East European Politics, 2013

During the first two decades after the collapse of communism 37 political parties won representat... more During the first two decades after the collapse of communism 37 political parties won representation in the Czech, Slovak or Hungarian Parliaments. By 2012, 22 of these parties had failed in the sense that they have fallen below the five-percent electoral threshold at least once. This set of failed parties includes a wide range of parties, from the far right and nationalist flanks to unreconstructed communists, including centre, green, agrarian, Christian and social democrat parties. Some were represented in parliament for one term only, others were in parliament for two decades. In this article we explore how and why these parties fell out of parliament. Beyond the obvious answer -that they failed to win enough votes -five factors involve particularly high political risk for political parties. Two system-level factors are somewhat beyond the control of the smaller parties: changes in the salience of cleavages and the electoral system. However, the other three are directly linked to the parties' strategies for competition: whether they participate in coalition government as a junior partner, how they manage internal dissent, and the party's organisational strength.

Party Politics, 2015

Ilter Turan examines the place of independent candidates (pp. 157-177). As a whole, Massicard and... more Ilter Turan examines the place of independent candidates (pp. 157-177). As a whole, Massicard and Watts' volume addresses some of the commonly ignored fundamental dynamics of Turkish party politics and interrogates some of the widespread assumptions of the mainstream literature. Through innovative approaches and a critical engagement with the centre-periphery paradigm, the studies in this volume have implied the pervasiveness of the personalisation of politics in Turkey beyond the level of national leadership. In conclusion, these two works together represent the plurality of perspectives on political parties in Turkey despite the persistent centrality of the centre-periphery paradigm and party system approach. The second volume in particular makes it clear that new directions and research agendas are finding their feet in the scholarship on political parties in Turkey.

DISC Seminar: The Patterns of Party Relations: Methodological and Regional Analyses

Global Re-ordering: Evolution through European Networks (GR: EEN)

The liberalisation of European Union Energy Markets: Common Policy and Plural Institutions

Page 1. The Liberalisation of European Union Energy Markets: Common Policy and Plural Institution... more Page 1. The Liberalisation of European Union Energy Markets: Common Policy and Plural Institutions NICK SITTER Department of International Relations and European Studies, Central European University, Budapest e-mail: Sittern@CEU.hu ...

The politics of opposition and European integration in Scandinavia: Is Euro‐scepticism a government‐opposition dynamic?

West European Politics, 2001

... to European integration is therefore linked inextricably to the party system and patterns of ... more ... to European integration is therefore linked inextricably to the party system and patterns of competition. While this explains the broad range of Euro-scepticism in Western Europe, it also hints at a possible broader relationship between government-opposition competition and ...

West European Politics, 2006

after four years in opposition, Jens Stoltenberg led the Norwegian Labour Party to electoral vict... more after four years in opposition, Jens Stoltenberg led the Norwegian Labour Party to electoral victory at the head of a 'red-green' alliance that included the Socialist Left and the rural Centre Party. This brought about the first (peace-time) Labour-led coalition, the first majority government for 20 years, and the first coalition to include the far left. The centre-right coalition of the Conservatives, the Christian People's Party and the Liberals lost badly, and the populist right-wing Progress Party became the second largest party. Four years earlier (Norway uses a fixed-term electoral cycle) Stoltenberg had fought the 2001 election as a modernising prime minister cast in the Tony Blair mould, defending a record of public sector modernisation and privatisation, and lost badly. 1 Labour's 2005 campaign was a stark contrast. The Blairite 'third way' rhetoric was replaced by criticism of the centre-right's public sector reforms; underscored by the new alliance. Was this, then, the triumph of the return to 'second way' social democracy?

Political Studies, 2009

Over the last three decades many Western European social democratic parties have been challenged ... more Over the last three decades many Western European social democratic parties have been challenged by populist radical right parties. The growth and success of parties on the right flank of the party system represents a triple challenge to the social democrats: they increase the salience of issues traditionally ‘owned’ by the right; they appeal to working-class voters who traditionally support the centre left; and they may facilitate the formation of centre-right governments. This article explores social democratic parties’ strategic options in the face of this challenge, and tests the widespread assumption that the centre-left parties respond by taking a tougher stance on issues related to immigration and integration. Comparative analysis of developments in Austria, Denmark, the Netherlands and Norway reveals significant variation in the substance, scope and pace of the strategic responses of their social democratic parties. And it suggests that those responses are influenced not onl...

Perspectives on European Politics and Society, 2002

This article analyses the development of competitive party politics in post-communist East Centra... more This article analyses the development of competitive party politics in post-communist East Central Europe from a comparative perspective. The central concerns are party system stabilisation and change in Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, and implications for comparative theory. Starting from Lipset and Rokkan's 'cleavage model', the article assesses the relevance of their key variables for party politics in the 1990s. Although there are considerable similarities (particularly in termsof choice of electoral systems), the cleavages, relationships between voters and parties, and the very nature of parties all differ considerably from the early Twentieth Century West European cases. Party strategy emerges as the key variable in explaining patterns of party system stability and change. Variations result from: (i) the prevalence of catch-all type strategies; (ii) interest representation strategies; and (iii) the presence of parties that have staked out positions on the anks of the system. The conclusions concerning the central role of party strategy are not con ned to East Central Europe, but are also pertinent to the study of party system change in Western Europe.

The last quarter of a century has seen two broad waves of regulatory reform. The first wave, whic... more The last quarter of a century has seen two broad waves of regulatory reform. The first wave, which started in the 1980s, was predicated on the assumption that privatization and liberalization would engender increased economic efficiency, and that this twin process would involve considerable deregulation. In the event this proved both unrealistic and impractical. Regulatory agencies that were established on a temporary basis have turned into permanent organizations, and the establishment of effective competition in markets that were previously dominated by public monopolies has required considerable re-regulation. The second, current, wave of regulatory reform duly focuses on the proper design of regulatory authorities, and in particular the question of agencies' independence from political interference. The present paper reviews the normative and positive literature on independent regulatory agencies, addressing why they have been deemed desirable and why they have been established. The motive for establishing independent regulators is directly related to how they are expected to operate, and in turn how they in actually operate. In contrast to earlier suggestions that degrees of independence reflect the quest for efficient regulation, or that they reflect compromises between commitments to credibility and political oversight, the present paper suggests that regulatory reform may be driven other motives as well. To some extent, regulatory independence reflects the degree to which politicians seek to bind their successors or obfuscate the responsibility for risky decisions. If so, the democratic challenge is deliberate institutional choices, not runaway agencies.

DAVID REDVALDSEN. The Labour Party in Britain and Norway: Elections and the Pursuit of Power between the World Wars. (International Library of Political Studies, number 50.) New York: I. B. Tauris. 2011. Pp. xxiv, 206. 56.50

The American Historical Review, 2012

Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics, 2019

Democratic backsliding in European Union (EU) member states is not only a policy challenge for th... more Democratic backsliding in European Union (EU) member states is not only a policy challenge for the EU, but also a potential existential crisis. If the EU does too little to deal with member state regimes that go back on their commitments to democracy and the rule of law, this risks undermining the EU from within. On the other hand, if the EU takes drastic action, this might split the EU. This article explores the nature and dynamics of democratic backsliding in EU member states, and analyses the EU’s capacity, policy tools and political will to address the challenge. Empirically it draws on the cases that have promoted serious criticism from the Commission and the European Parliament: Hungary, Poland, and to a lesser extent, Romania. After reviewing the literature and defining backsliding as a gradual, deliberate, but open-ended process of de-democratization, the article analyzes the dynamics of backsliding and the EU’s difficulties in dealing with this challenge to liberal democrac...

In the two decades that have passed since the collapse of communism, 39 parties crossed the elect... more In the two decades that have passed since the collapse of communism, 39 parties crossed the electoral threshold in the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary. Of these, 23 subsequently failed. Only two parties managed to return on their own (one failed again). One is represented as part of an electoral alliance. Some have merged with other parties, some have ceased to exist, and some maintain a twilight existence. We map and analyse the fate of parties that have fallen below the electoral threshold, and explore why some parties cease operations relatively quickly while others soldier on or maintain a 'zombie-like' existence. The core factors are the opportunity structures provided by other parties in terms of offers of alliances, mergers and/or new homes for the party elites; the existence of alternative arenas for competition than the national legislature (or national party lists); and the organisational strength of the party that falls below the threshold.

Social Democracy in the 21st Century (Comparative Social Research, Vol. 35), 2021

It is often said that we live in a time of crisis for social democracy. Many of the West European... more It is often said that we live in a time of crisis for social democracy. Many of the West European centre-left parties that seemed the natural parties of government in the second half of the twentieth century, are in decline. The most common long-term explanations centre on a shrinking working class, a widening gap between the party elite and their core voters, and the challenges from new populist parties and/or greens. Short-term policy factors include the failure to address the recent financial and refugee crises. None of these factors carry much explanatory weight for developments in Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic in the three decades since the transition from communism. We find that much of the explanation for the rise and the fall of the five social democratic parties in these countries lies in the dynamics of party competition and party system change. All parties face dilemmas of policy, electoral appeal and coalition-building. The Central European cases suggest that it is how social democrats handle such challenges, and make difficult choices about strategy and tactics, that ultimately shapes their long-term fate. Centre-left parties are stronger masters of their fortunes than much of the literature on the decline of social democracy suggests. Consequently, seeking a common structural explanation for the rise and decline of social democratic parties might be a double fallacy: both empirically misleading and a poor base for policy advice.