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Papers by Slobodan Kotlica

Industrija, 2020

This paper analyzes the current key processes in the global economy: decline in international tra... more This paper analyzes the current key processes in the global economy: decline in international trade, rising protectionism and shortening of global production chains. The specific aim is to determine the effects of these
global trends on Serbian foreign trade. The proposed hypotheses are 1) Decline in the volume of Serbian foreign trade can be expected to be sharper than global indicators and 2) The reduced volume of trade both in Serbia and globally will tend to continue for many years to come. Using statistical analysis for different types of data, linear regression and case study, the research has confirmed the first hypothesis. The coefficients obtained bz linear regression were applied to the WTO projections for global trade in 2020 and 2021. It was found that the expected decline in Serbia's foreign trade is almost twice the world average. The second hypothesis is proven by the analysis of the economic causes of the main global trends, which have proven to be structural to the greatest extent, hence long-term.

Industrija,, 2018

The intensive globalization of production at the end of the 20th and the beginning of the 21st ce... more The intensive globalization of production at the end of the 20th and the beginning of the 21st century led to a significant distortion of statistical data of the volume of international trade. The usage of these data in quantitative research does not provide reliable information regarding the development potential of a particular export route (orientation) or products. The specific methodological procedure has been proposed in order to correct these data, prior to their application in known econometric models. It includes standard procedures for separation of inter-industry from intra-industry trade, and then the differentiation of horizontal and vertical form of intra-industry exchange. In the last step, the disputed value of exports is identified by marking unusual situation of higher export price of undeveloped economies to the developed ones. This is a result of the multiple crossing of the border of the same products. The obtained corrected value of statistical data can be successfully applied in existing econometric models. The methodological procedure was applied to the selected Serbian export groups of products and several of its key export partner countries. The results show that the statistical value of export is 10% to 40% higher than the real one. Apstrakt: Intenzivna globalizacija proizvodnje krajem XX i početkom XXI veka dovela je do značajne distorzije statističkih podataka o obimu međunarodne trgovine. Primena ovih podataka u kvantitativnim istraživanjima ne daje pouzdane informacije u pogledu razvojnog potencijala određenog izvoznog pravca (orijentacije) ili proizvoda. Radi korekcije ovih podataka, pre njihove primene u poznatim ekonometrijskim modelima, predložen je specifičan metodološki postupak On uključuje standardne postupke za razgraničavanje inter-industrijske i intra-industrijske trgovine, a potom razdvajanje horizontalne i vertikalne u okviru intra-industrijske razmene. U poslednjem koraku, na osnovu utvrđivanja nelogičnosti između izvozne cene i smera trgovine između razvijenih i nerazvijenih privreda, izdvaja se sporna vrednost izvoza, koja je rezultat višestrukog prelaska granice istih proizvoda. Tako dobijena korigovana vrednost statističkih podataka može se dalje uspešno primenjivati u postojećim ekonometrijskim modelima. Metodološki postupak je primenjen na odabrane izvozne grupe proizvoda Srbije i nekoliko njenih ključnih izvoznih zemalja partnera. Rezultati pokazuju da je statistička vrednost izvoza 10% do 40% veća od realne za analizirane proizvode. Ključne reči: međunarodna trgovina, ekonometrija, statistički podaci, metodologija.

Scientific Bulletin, International Scientific Journals, 2015

Proceedings of the 8th International Conference on Urban Planning and Transportation (UPT '15), Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Management, Marketing, Tourism, Retail, Finance and Computer Applications (MATREFC '15), Tenerife, Canary Islands, Spain, January 10-12,, 2015

Information technology and activities are considered as a key factor for necessary revitalization... more Information technology and activities are considered as a key factor for necessary revitalization and modernization of economic structure of transition countries of Central and East Europe at the beginning of the 21 st century. Information sector is not only a sector of economy that is supposed to increase its share in the gross domestic product and employment more and faster. The role of information and the complex of surrounding activities is to initiate the changes of nature of economic and social life as a whole and successful transition from an industrial towards the information society and economy.

Zbornik Matice srpske za društvene nauke, 2015

Megatrend review Megatrend revija, 2013

ADVANCES in ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE and ENERGY PLANNING, Tenerife, Canary Islands, Spain, January 10-12, 2015

Purpose of this study is to determine whether cash flow impacts business failure prediction using... more Purpose of this study is to determine whether cash flow impacts business failure prediction using the BP models (Altman z-score, or Neural Network, or any of the BP models which could be implemented having objective to predict the financial distress or more complex financial failure-bankruptcy of the banks or companies). Units of analysis are financial ratios derived from raw financial data: B/S, P&L statements (income statements) and cash flow statements of both failed and non-failed companies/corporates that have been collected from the auditing resources and reports performed. A number of these studies examined whether a cash flow improve the prediction of business failure. The authors would have the objective to show the evidence and usefulness and efficacy of statistical models such as Altman Z-score discriminant analysis bankruptcy predictive models to assess client on going concern status. Failed and non-failed companies were selected for analysis to determine whether the cash flow improves the business failure prediction aiming to proof that the cash flow certainly makes better financial distress and bankruptcy prediction possible.

СЕРБСКИЕ НАУЧНЫЕ ИССЛЕДОВАНИЯ 2012, Сборник научных статей, Moskva, 2012

The role of information is transformation of the character of economy and society on the whole. I... more The role of information is transformation of the character of economy and society on the whole. Information technology and activities are considered as a key factor for necessary revitalization and modernization of Serbian economic structure at the beginning of the 21 st century. Information sector is not only a sector of Serbian economy structure that is supposed to increase its share in the GDp and employment more and faster. The role of information and the complex of surrounding activities is to influence the changes of nature of economic and social life in Serbia as a whole and, as soon as possible, successful transition from an industrial towards the information society and economy.

Zbornik Matice srpske za društvene nauke, 2002

Books by Slobodan Kotlica

Razvoj malih zemalja u uslovima globalizacije, ANRS, SANU, 2019

Economies of small countries, which strive to be an open, successful and integral part of global ... more Economies of small countries, which strive to be an open,
successful and integral part of global economy, must intensively cooperate and communicate with those of its subjects which have better and more qualitative solutions in technological, economic and organizational area. Increasing significance is being gained by intra-company relations which also modify the action of market legalities and principles. Globalization of business activity has led to a significant distortion of statistical data about the size of international trade. The application of these data in quantitative research does not give reliable information in respect of developmental potential of a certain export direction or product. For the purpose of correction of these data, before its application in well-known conometric models, a specific methodological procedure is proposed. It includes standard procedures for limiting
inter-industrial and intra-industrial trades, and then horizontal and vertical trades within intra-industrial exchange. On the basis of determining of illogicalities between the export price and the direction of trade between developed and undeveloped economies, in the last step, the disputed value of export stands out, which is a result of multiple crossing of the limit of one product.
In that way we get a corrected value of statistical data and we can further successfully apply it in econometric models. The methodological procedure is applied on selected export groups of products of the economy of Serbia and a few of its key export partners. Results show that the statistical value of export is 10% to 40% greater than the real.

Institute of Economic Sciences, Belgrade, 1997

Izdavač zadržava sva prava. Reprodukcija pojedinih delova ili celine ove publikacije nije dozvolj... more Izdavač zadržava sva prava. Reprodukcija pojedinih delova ili celine ove publikacije nije dozvoljena! ISBN 978-86-7747-498-0 Odlukom Komisije za izdavačku delatnost Megatrend univerziteta, broj 404/62 (9.

Copyright: © Visoka škola akademskih studija "Dositej"-Beograd Izdavač zadržava sva prava. Reprod... more Copyright: © Visoka škola akademskih studija "Dositej"-Beograd Izdavač zadržava sva prava. Reprodukcija pojedinih delova ili celine ove publikacije nije dozvoljena! ISBN 978-86-920965-3-2 Odlukom Komisije za izdavačku delatnost Visoka škola akademskih studija "Dositej" -Beograd,broj 1064/02 od 27.09.2017. rukopis je odobren za štampu i upotrebu u nastavi kao monografija