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Papers by safieh javadinejad

Safety in Extreme Environments, 2020

In this study, in addition to considering the two dominant climatic domains during extreme condit... more In this study, in addition to considering the two dominant climatic domains during extreme condition in the study area, temperature and humidity, and determining the correlation and correlation of these two factors with the prevalence of rotavirus gastroenteritis, a statistical model was proposed to predict the prevalence of the disease. Although this research, like many earlier studies, has been based on statistical data for a period of three years, according to its primary objectives, the short-term risk of the disease has been zoned using GIS software, and this point is new. The distinction between the present study and previous studies is considered. Previous studies did not consider the relationship between climate change and gastroenteritis GE. So, the purpose of this study was to investigate the correlation between the number of patients admitted in the hospital with symptoms of gastroenteritis GE and the monthly climatic variables of temperature and humidity of rotavirus, maximum, mean during extreme condition, at least in the city of Ahvaz, in three levels and its suburbs. The results showed a high prevalence of rotavirus infection in children in Ahvaz at low temperature. The maximum rotavirus activity was determined at 13°C. Also, the highest number of patients with symptoms of rotavirus gastroenteritis was observed in autumn and early winter. It is suggested that the results of this study should be considered in determining the timing of vaccination during extreme condition.

Springer, 2022

Sustainability in land management depends on agricultural factors, environment factors, socioecon... more Sustainability in land management depends on agricultural factors, environment factors, socioeconomic factors and the sustainability can effect on crop efficiency and food security. The aim of this research is to provide a framework in order to investigate the relationship between sustainable land management, human factors, agricultural crop efficiency and food security. The common tool that can use to understand the relationship is using questionnaire. Statistical population include agriculture households in Middle East area. The novelty of this study based on a statistical method with using t-test and Cochran formula. The results showed that among all methods of sustainable land management, the methods of plowing the land perpendicular to the direction of the gradient, creating a dam upstream of the land and use of animal manure had the most effects on crop efficiency. Also, the most significant methods that can affect on food security include; forms of cultivation, soil fertility, soil sustainability, and water management in land. The results indicated that the farmers that use multi methods, had simple access to food supply and had high food security. Therefore, in order to get high crop efficiency, high food security and secure investment, support services for agricultures should increase. So, regards to the support, farmers can cooperate to the plans for proper sustainable land management and food security.

Today, one of the most important issues is that to understand how the severity of heavy precipita... more Today, one of the most important issues is that to understand how the severity of heavy precipitation and floods can change in future time in comparison with the current period. The aim of this research is to realize the effect of future climate change on storm water and probability of maximum flood for future time period. Zayandeh rud river basin in Iran is selected as a case study. Prediction of future climatic parameters based on temperature and precipitation of the upcoming period (2006-2040) is done with using the HadCM3 model and based on RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 emission patterns. Also, climate change model is downscaled statistically with using LARS-WG. In the next step, the probable of maximum precipitation is assessed through synoptic method and then, in order to model maximum storm water under the climate change effects, the HEC-HMS for simulating rainfall-runoff model is used. Also, the Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) is used to simulate snow melting. The results of this resear...

Water supplies in the word especially in developing areas have become strained because of alterat... more Water supplies in the word especially in developing areas have become strained because of alterations in climate outlines (Haydar et al. 2016). The water supplies of areas which affected by climate change usually characterize through two seasons, a mild, wet winter and a hot, dry summer (Döll et al. 2015). In recent years, several regions have become at risk to the effects of extreme climate happenings. The effects of the extreme events on water resources has become more distinct (Chen et al. 2015). The effects of climate change on water supplies is not only involved surface water, however, groundwater can affect by climate change (Meixner et al. 2016). Groundwater can be a more reliable water resource than the surface water supply (Kurylyk et al. 2015). Nevertheless, this is only sustainable where, over the long term, extractions keep well below recharge, whereas care should also be taken to prevent extreme decline of groundwater outflow to rivers (Snyder et al. 2015). The shortage...

World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology, International Journal of Environmental and Ecological Engineering, 2017

Climate change will have important effects on development, poverty mitigation and reaching the mi... more Climate change will have important effects on development, poverty mitigation and reaching the millennium development objectives (specific objectives could be economic conditions (Stocker, 2014)). Some hard-fought improvements made to achieve these global objectives can reduce or even invert climate change threats to water, agricultural production, nutrition, food security, and public health Fitchett et al. [1]. Countries and districts that fail to adjust to climate change will cause global insecurity by dispersing disease, conflicts over supplies, and destruction of the economic systems Eisenack et al. [2].

Springer, Cham, 2019

The government established several strategies to decline the hazards of climate alteration. The m... more The government established several strategies to decline the hazards of climate alteration. The most signiﬁcant of these strategies which usually neglected is recognizing the variances between several communities with regard to resilience indicators against these impacts and improving proper strategy for each of them. This research aims to examine the alteration between urban and rural communities with regard to resilience in the extreme event of climate change. The present research is applied in a practical way, and all possible methods (such as numerical/analytical modeling and statistical analysis) which are necessary for estimating the value of resilience or monitoring spatial-temporal characteristics of resilience have been used. The results displayed that there is an important difference between the resilience elements in urban and rural districts. Resilience in urban regions usually is inﬂuenced by economic parameters. However, social parameters are the most signiﬁcant elemen...

Water supplies have been meeting strict experiments all over the world and the tendencies of redu... more Water supplies have been meeting strict experiments all over the world and the tendencies of reducing precipitations and rising temperatures in the arid and semi-arid of the Middle-East region (such as Iran) aggravate this condition during the last few decades. A proper water planning needs productive Integrated Water Resource Management models that can respond these complicated troubles. The aim of this study was to develop a structure for applicable and efficient risk control of water supplies through drought. This management structure combines hydrological, socio-economic and water organization models. The methodology has three factors: 1) the statistical possessions of drought characterisation and drought trend in terms of space-time were examined and thresholds of drought warning are evaluated to assist as drivers for control programmes. 2) A water-planning model was applied to combine water accessibility and demand and examine the reliability of the water system to deliver the...

Encyclopedia of Earth Sciences Series

Resources Environment and Information Engineering, 2021

Nowadays, one of the most significant problems is that to recognize how the severity of heavy pre... more Nowadays, one of the most significant problems is that to recognize how the severity of heavy precipitation and floods may alter in future time in comparison with the current period. The purpose of this research is to understand the impact of future climate change on storm water and probability of maximum flood for future time period. Zayandeh rud river basin in Iran is selected as a case study. Forecast of future climatic parameters based on temperature and precipitation of the upcoming period (2006-2040) is completed with using the HadCM3 model and based on RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 emission patterns. Also, climate change model is downscaled statistically with applying LARS-WG. In the next step, the probable of maximum precipitation is measured through synoptic method and then, in order to model maximum storm water under the climate change effects, the HEC-HMS for simulating rainfall-runoff model is used. Also, the Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) is applied to model snow melting. The results of this research indicate the maximum of probable precipitation in the basin for the period of 2006-2040 under the scenario RCP 2.6, can rise by 5% and by the scenarios of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 can decrease by 5% and 10%, respectively in comparison with the current period 1970-2005.

Resources Environment and Information Engineering, 2021

Providing fresh water suitable for drinking and farming and living organisms in the ecosystem is ... more Providing fresh water suitable for drinking and farming and living organisms in the ecosystem is essential. To evaluate water quality, qualitative indicators are often employed for managing water resources and water quality protection and pollution abatement. This study evaluated the quality of Borkhar basin water resources using three different water quality indices, including National Institutes of Health Water Quality Index (NIHWQI) having nine parameters, the Oregon Water Quality Index (OWQI) having eight parameters, and the Canadian Water Quality Indices (CWQI) with 22 main parameters. Using data for a period of 30 years, NIHWQI, OWQI and CWQI were used. To analyze water quality of the entire basin for current and future time. Results showed that water quality of the basin was in a very moderate range according to NSFWQI, and was in a very bad range accordingly to OWQI. Water quality forecasts showed that future water quality would be bad, based on OWQI and moderate based on NSFWQI, whereas based on CWQI, it will be good for drinking, and bad for aquatic animals, recreation, irrigation, and livestock use.

Research in Ecology, 2021

Different sets of dry spell length such as complete series, monthly maximum, seasonal maximum, an... more Different sets of dry spell length such as complete series, monthly maximum, seasonal maximum, and annual maximum are applied and modeled with different probability distribution functions (such as Gumbel Max, generalized extreme value, Log-Logistic, generalized logistic, inverse Gaussian, Log-Pearson 3, generalized Pareto) to recognize in which duration, dry spells cause drought. The drought situation and temporal analysis in the North of Iraq region were done using the SPI index and by software of DrinC at a time scale of 3.6 and 12 months. Because of applicability, availability of data and the aim of the study, SPI is selected to analyze the dry spells in this study. Based on the maximum length of the available statistical period, the statistics for the years 1980 to 2019 were used from nine meteorological stations for analysis. The results of the study showed the severity of drought during the study period which related to dry spells. The results of this research confirm the variation of drought occurrence with varying degrees in different time and different dry spells condition in Iraq.

Biogeneric Science and Research, 2021

Hydrologic classification is the method of scientifically arranging streams, rivers or catchments... more Hydrologic classification is the method of scientifically arranging streams, rivers or catchments into groups with the most similarity of flow regime features and use it to recognize hydrologically homogenous areas. Previous homogeneous attempts were depended on overabundance of hydrologic metrics that considers features of variability of flows that are supposed to be meaningful in modelling physical progressions in the basins. This research explains the techniques of hydrological homogeneity through comparing past and existing methods; in addition, it provides a practical framework for hydrological homogeneity that illustrates serious elements of the classification process.

Iraqi Geological Journal , 2021

The aim of this study was to analyze the climatic data parameters in an interesting catchment, no... more The aim of this study was to analyze the climatic data parameters in an interesting catchment, northern Iraq, the Koysinjaq catchment. The climatic conditions were further utilized in the water balance technique. The investigated periods (2000-2019) of meteorological data were used to assess the climatic and drought conditions in Koysinjaq Basin. In terms of water availability, the mean annual rainfall was 595mm and relative humidity was 50.3%, whereas regarding the water losses elements, the total monthly evaporation is 2058.3 mm, temperature, wind speed and sunshine were 22.3 oC, 2 m/sec, and 7.8 hr/day respectively. Kharrufa method was employed to define potential evapotranspiration, and identify periods of water surplus and deficit. The results indicated that total potential evapotranspiration, water surplus and deficit are 2209.04 mm, 258.2 mm, and 1872.4 mm respectively. Different methods were used for climate classification like Mather, Unep, and Al-Kubaisi, the results of these classifications show that climate is dry-sub humid according to the first classification, semi-arid according to the second classification, and humid to moist according to the third classification. Keyword: Water balance; Climatic classification; Koysinjaq meteorological station

Iraqi Geological Journal, 2020

In order to develop a valued decision-support system for climate alteration policy and planning, ... more In order to develop a valued decision-support system for climate alteration policy and planning, recognizing the regionally-specific features of the climate change, energy-water nexus, and the history of the current and possible future climate, water and energy supply systems is necessary. This paper presents an integrated climate change, water/energy modeling platform which allows tailored climate alteration and water-energy assessments. This modelling platform is established and described in details based on particular regional circumstances. The modeling platform involves linking three different models, including the climate change model from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 under the most severe scenario (Representative Concentration Pathways, Water Evaluation and Planning system and the Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning system). This is to understand the impacts of climate variability (changes in temperature and precipitation) on water and electricity consumption in Zayandeh Rud River Basin (Central Iran) for current (1971-2005) and future time period (2006-2040). Climate models have projected that the temperature will increase by 7 °C and precipitation will decrease by 44%, it is also proposed that electricity imports will rise during severe dry scenario in the basin, while power generation will decrease around 8%.

Safety in Extreme Environments- Springer, 2021

In response to the climate change, hydrologic and environmental changes and increased uncertainti... more In response to the climate change, hydrologic and environmental changes and increased uncertainties, implication of water resilience in a context of water governance is essential for improved management. This study aims to answer the following questions: 1) what are different types of resilience with regard to its several definitions, 2) what is the relationship between resilience, trend and performance in water governance. This research applied literature reviews (as theoretical approach) and interviews with local water managers (as experimental approach) to develop better resilient plan under extreme events. This study compared the results of reviewed articles with results that we obtained from interviews with water managers in a case study area in order to develop a resilience planning under extreme events. The research has analyzed the resilience for water management based on theoretical and empirical knowledge and also provided some helpful recommendations for building system resilience for the future. The analysis of the findings shows that sufficient resilience in each society depends considerably on water resources planning (implied by the government) and also resilience in water supply infrastructure (designed by engineers). In addition, in order to get a high level of resilience, integration of ecological knowledge, water supplies, government's regulation/ legislation, engineering projects and humans' interaction, is necessary. Moreover, the results indicate that failures and hydrologic catastrophes are mainly as a result of big gaps between these elements and also a lack of integrated approach between water-institutions and the environment in water management.

Resources Environment and Information Engineering, 2020

Citation: Javadinejad S, Dara R and Jafary F. How groundwater level can predict under the effect ... more Citation: Javadinejad S, Dara R and Jafary F. How groundwater level can predict under the effect of climate change by using artificial neural networks of NARX. Resour Environ Inf Eng, 2020, 2(1): 90-99. Abstract: The phenomenon of climate change in recent years has led to significant changes in climatic elements and as a result the status of surface and groundwater resources, especially in arid and semi-arid regions, this issue has sometimes caused a significant decline in groundwater resources. In this paper, the effects of climate change on the status of groundwater resources in Marvdasht plain have been investigated. Water supply of different parts of this region is highly dependent on groundwater resources and therefore the study of groundwater changes in future periods is important in the development of this plain and the management of its water resources. In order to evaluate the effects of climate change, the output of atmospheric circulation models (GCM) has been used. Then, in order to adapt the output scale of these models to the scale required by local studies of climate change, precipitation and temperature data have been downscaled by LARS-WG model. Downscaled information was used to determine the amount of feed and drainage of the aquifer in future periods. To investigate changes in groundwater levels at different stages, a neural network dynamic model has been developed in MATLAB software environment. It is also possible to study and compare other points using other scenarios and mathematical modelling. The results of the study, assuming the current state of development in the region, indicate a downward trend in the volume of the aquifer due to climate change and its effects on resources and uses of the study area. The results also introduce Scenario A2 as the most critical scenario related to climate change, which also shows the largest aquifer decline in neural network modelling.

Journal of Geographical Research, 2020

Increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases causes rising in global warming and carbon dioxi... more Increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases causes rising in global warming and carbon dioxide emissions. With further efforts to reduce carbon dioxide, it is possible to prevent the warming of the earth, but the effects of climate change that we have already created can not be reduced. Recent observed and predicted alterations in the global climate require a double policy to react to the decline in climate alteration and its adjustment (coexistence) to explain the key factors and their effects. Measures to reduce climate alteration through decreasing greenhouse gas releases or removing them from the atmosphere are possible. Execution of more reduction measures at the present time will require less adaptation in the future. Meanwhile, inadequate measures to curb climate change presently increase the risk of catastrophic consequences, so that adjustment costs will rise unreasonably and adaptive capacity will face further constraints. Climate change adaptation measures concentrate in increasing our capability to deal with or prevent damaging effects or the use of new circumstances. Increasing temperature and changes visible today due to climate change mean that adaptation strategies should be applied. In this paper, strategies for reducing climate change and adaptation are reviewed and various strategies are presented. Meanwhile, this paper looks at the economies affected by climate change, our involvement to climate alteration, and the ways in which the economy has influenced climate change and the ways in which it can provide logical options.

Resources Environment and Information Engineering, 2020

The effect of meteorological and hydrological droughts is very important in arid and semi-arid re... more The effect of meteorological and hydrological droughts is very important in arid and semi-arid regions. Analyzing these effects on groundwater supplies plays an important role for water management in those regions. This paper aims to characterize droughts in the Isfahan-Borkhar basin, an arid area of Iran. The observed hydro-climatic data (for the period of 1971-2005) were used for hydro-meteorological projections (for the period of 2006-2040). Meteorological and surface hydrological drought evaluated by Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Runoff Index (SRI), and the effect of hydro-meteorological droughts on groundwater was investigated by Groundwater Resources Index (GRI). Results showed that dry and wet conditions would occur in the region in the initial and subsequent decades, based on the three indices. There was a significant association between SPI, SRI, and GRI at the time scale of 12 months. The SPI estimated using only meteorological variables alone and it is useful for estimating meteorological drought forecasts. However, SRI and GRI can represent hydrological drought that computed using catchment discharge, soil moisture and groundwater level. Results showed a considerable alteration in time of drought outlines across the area and association between the variables of predicted precipitation, temperature and the kind of indices. The projection of all three drought indices indicated drier conditions in the future period (2006-2042). The results provide reasonable management strategy for management of water resources in arid coastal plains.

Resources Environment and Information Engineering, 2020

In this research, the catchment area of the Karkheh River has been investigated in order to inves... more In this research, the catchment area of the Karkheh River has been investigated in order to investigate the relationship between the sediment and the effect of climate change on the phenomenon of microstrip. In the first step, to determine the relationship between the grains and sediments, it is necessary to determine the origin of sedimentation and its gradation. Accordingly, some sediment samples were taken from the river bed. Sediment aggregate size measurement is an important tool for studying its origin. Currently, for statistical purposes, many samples are used, but these methods are time-consuming and difficult. The size of the sediment in the study of origin, and its relationship with the microorganisms , is an important factor. Therefore, the use of modern methods is essential. In the present study, the data of the sediment samples were introduced into the acetate gradient (statistical analysis program) to determine the texture and granulation of the sediment. The results showed that sand gravel texture is. Then sampling and testing on the microscopes showed that they are also of sandy origin, so it can be assumed that abrupt grafting of microspheres after sediment can cause sediment in the river. In addition, in order to investigate the effect of climate change on the micrographs, the relationship between three climatic parameters including rainfall, minima and relative humidity with the number of days with a rigorous refreshment for two years of 2015 and 2016 were analyzed. The results showed that, with increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation and relative humidity, the number of days with the coarse cutter increases, and as a result, it can be caused by sedimentation as part of sedimentation in the river.

Safety in Extreme Environments, 2020

Springer, 2022

World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology, International Journal of Environmental and Ecological Engineering, 2017

Springer, Cham, 2019

Encyclopedia of Earth Sciences Series

Resources Environment and Information Engineering, 2021

Research in Ecology, 2021

Biogeneric Science and Research, 2021

Iraqi Geological Journal , 2021

Iraqi Geological Journal, 2020

Safety in Extreme Environments- Springer, 2021

Resources Environment and Information Engineering, 2020

Journal of Geographical Research, 2020

Resources Environment and Information Engineering, 2020

Newcastle university, 2011

The town of Morpeth, which lies in the Wansbeck catchment, experienced a catastrophic flood on t... more The town of Morpeth, which lies in the Wansbeck catchment, experienced a catastrophic flood on the 6th September, 2008 which has resulted in this research. Occurrence of similar catastrophic floods around the world has increased the interest of the scientific community in using an alternative method i.e. continuous simulation to estimate flood risk. This method is completely different from current standard methodology [e.g. Flood Estimation Handbook (FEH)] in the UK for estimating flood risk.

So, this study has examined the methodology used to develop a continuous simulation approach for the Wansbeck catchment and then made the model for upstream storage (near Mitford Hall and Font Ford Lodge) to reduce flood risk in the town of Morpeth. A previous study of the catchment has investigated the possibility of utilizing Lightwater storage to reduce flood risks to the town. The approach was to use data from 100 years of rainfall and to simulate the rainfall-runoff model to obtain the most significant flood. Then unsteady 1D hydraulic river model with and without Lightwater storage was modelled. Therefore, in this project, in order to show a fuller picture of a flood hydrograph, 24 ensemble rainfall model (during the event) with high resolution for every 5 minutes has been used to input rainfall- runoff and 1D river model during continuous simulation. During this project, an analysis of rainfall around the Wansbeck catchment has been made by using the 24 forecast ensemble rainfall model. Furthermore, a calibrated SHETRAN model has used the rainfall to simulate a rainfall-runoff model for every 15 minutes. The SHETRAN model was applied because it is a physically based, spatially- distributed modelling system for water flow, sediment and solute transport in the catchment. Hence the peak-flows hydrograph simulated by maximum, medium and minimum rainfall has been used as inputs for the NOAH 1D model with and without storage. Detailed results are shown during the project.