Steinar Holden - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Steinar Holden

Research paper thumbnail of No Institutional Policy Positions

We gratefully acknowledge the support and hospitality of our hosts, the European Central Bank. Th... more We gratefully acknowledge the support and hospitality of our hosts, the European Central Bank. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author(s) and not those of the funding organization(s) nor of CEPR, which takes

Research paper thumbnail of General Distribution Ocde/gd(97)28 the Unemployment Problem -a Norwegian Perspective

RÉSUMÉ ............................................................................................. more RÉSUMÉ ............................................................................................................................ 2 THE UNEMPLOYMENT PROBLEM A NORWEGIAN PERSPECTIVE................................ .......... 5

Research paper thumbnail of Rating agencies : The logic of self-defeating optimism

What is the economic role of credit rating agencies (CRAs), and how should they be paid? We study... more What is the economic role of credit rating agencies (CRAs), and how should they be paid? We study how credit rating agencies (CRAs) can serve as coordination device, and thereby prevent or cause ineffi cient liquidation of projects with a long horizon. We show that if CRAs can impact real outcomes, then their reputation concerns hamper truthful revelation of information, and, as a consequence, limit their ratings’informational content. We then show that equilibrium behavior is shaped by two prominent regimes: (i) an ‘optimistic’regime in which CRAs tend to give good ratings, and (ii) a ‘pessimistic’regime in which CRAs tend to give bad ratings. But both regimes are self-defeating: (i) only bad ratings do affect investors’ behavior in an optimistic regime while (ii) only good ratings affect investors’ behavior in a pessimistic regime. Existing evidence on the environment preceding the financial turmoil starting in 2007-2008 fits with our characterization of an optimistic regime. Henc...

Research paper thumbnail of The Oil market as an oligopoly

This paper treats the oil market as an oligopoly with a competitive fringe. The oligopoly is assu... more This paper treats the oil market as an oligopoly with a competitive fringe. The oligopoly is assumed to consist of Egypt, Oman, Mexico, Malaysia and Norway plus all OPEC members. The remaining oil producing countries are included in a fringe which by assumption takes the oil price development as exogenously given. Outcomes with varying degrees of collusion within the oligopoly are specified. Intermediate cases are also studied, such as complete or partial cooperation within OPEC, but no cooperation between OPEC and any other countries in the oligopoly. The model is implemented in the PCbased MODLER software, and empirical results from the simulations on the different model versions are presented. Not to be quoted without permission from author(s). Comments welcome. THE OIL MARKET AS AN OLIGOPOLY Kjell Berger, Michael Hoel, Steinar Holden and . Øystein Olsen *

Research paper thumbnail of Successful Fiscal Adjustments. Does Choice of Fiscal Instrument Matter?

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2013

Research paper thumbnail of An Equilibrium Model of Credit Rating Agencies

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2012

Research paper thumbnail of Monetary Regime and the Co-Ordination of Wage Setting

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000

Research paper thumbnail of Implications of Insights from Behavioral Economics for Macroeconomic Models

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2012

Research paper thumbnail of Wage Rigidity, Institutions, and Inflation

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2009

Research paper thumbnail of Indebtedness and Unemployment: A Durable Relationship

SSRN Electronic Journal, 1998

Research paper thumbnail of Do Government Purchases Affect Unemployment?

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2011

Research paper thumbnail of Behavioral Economics and Macroeconomic Models

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2014

Research paper thumbnail of Coordination, Fair Treatment and Inflation Persistence

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2003

Research paper thumbnail of Discrimination and Employment Protection

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2011

Research paper thumbnail of Økt sysselsetting krever en helhetligpolitikk med styrket kompetanse, gode insentiver og økt etterspørsel– svar til Kristian Heggebø

Tidsskrift for samfunnsforskning

Research paper thumbnail of Large’ vs. ‘small’ players: A closer look at the dynamics of speculative attacks.” mimeo, SIFR and Norwegian School of Management

What is the role of “large players”, e.g., hedge funds, in speculative attacks? Recent work sugge... more What is the role of “large players”, e.g., hedge funds, in speculative attacks? Recent work suggests that large players move early to induce smaller agents to attack. However, many observers argue that large players move late so as to benefit from interest rate differentials. We propose a model where large players can do both. Using data on currency trading by foreign (large) and local (small) players, we find that foreign players moved last in three attacks on the Norwegian krone during the 1990s. During the attack on the Swedish krona after the Russian moratorium in 1998, foreign players moved early. Gains by delaying attack were small, however, since interest rates did not increase.

Research paper thumbnail of 2NON-COOPERATIVE Wage Bargatntng

The paper argtues that the Rubinstein perfect informat ion inf in j- te-hor izon al- ternat ing-o... more The paper argtues that the Rubinstein perfect informat ion inf in j- te-hor izon al- ternat ing-of fers model is problemat ic when appl ied to wage negot iat ions. A str ike or any other industr iaf act ion is not an automat ic consequence of a delay in reaching an agreement, because product ion can cont inue as normal- a l-so when negot iat ions take place. An inf in i te-hor izon al ternat ing-of fers model incorporat ing the choice of cal l ing a str ike is devel-oped. I t is shown that in th is model there j-s no longer a unique subgame perfect equi l ibr ium, and that str ikes wi th a length in real t i rne can occur in equi l ibr ium.

Research paper thumbnail of Wage Differentiation via Subsidised General Training ∗

We provide a new explanation for why firms pay for general training in a competitive labor market... more We provide a new explanation for why firms pay for general training in a competitive labor market. If firms are unable to tailor individual wages to ability, for informational or institutional reasons, they will pay for general training in order to attract better quality workers. The market provision of training may well exceed the first best level. Our explanation relies on wage compression within skill categories, while imperfect competition based explanations rely on wage compression across skill categories. JEL Categories: J31, D82. ∗Thanks to Alison Booth, Espen Moen and seminar participants at Essex for useful comments. V. Bhaskar thanks the Economic and Social Research Council, UK for its

Research paper thumbnail of The interaction of labor markets and inflation: micro evidence from the international wage flexibility project. mimeo

We gratefully acknowledge the support and hospitality of our hosts, the European Central Bank.

Research paper thumbnail of No. 07‐6 How Strong is the Macroeconomic Case for Downward Real Wage Rigidity?

This paper explores the existence of downward real wage rigidity (DRWR) in 19 OECD countries, ove... more This paper explores the existence of downward real wage rigidity (DRWR) in 19 OECD countries, over the period 1973–1999, using data for hourly nominal earnings at the industry level. Based on a nonparametric statistical method, which allows for country ‐ and year‐ specific variation in both the median and the dispersion of industry wage changes, we find evidence of some DRWR in OECD countries overall, as well as for specific geographical regions and time periods. There is some evidence that real wage cuts are less prevalent in countries with strict employment protection legislation and high union density. Generally, we find stronger evidence for downward nominal wage rigidity than for downward real wage rigidity.

Research paper thumbnail of No Institutional Policy Positions

We gratefully acknowledge the support and hospitality of our hosts, the European Central Bank. Th... more We gratefully acknowledge the support and hospitality of our hosts, the European Central Bank. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author(s) and not those of the funding organization(s) nor of CEPR, which takes

Research paper thumbnail of General Distribution Ocde/gd(97)28 the Unemployment Problem -a Norwegian Perspective

RÉSUMÉ ............................................................................................. more RÉSUMÉ ............................................................................................................................ 2 THE UNEMPLOYMENT PROBLEM A NORWEGIAN PERSPECTIVE................................ .......... 5

Research paper thumbnail of Rating agencies : The logic of self-defeating optimism

What is the economic role of credit rating agencies (CRAs), and how should they be paid? We study... more What is the economic role of credit rating agencies (CRAs), and how should they be paid? We study how credit rating agencies (CRAs) can serve as coordination device, and thereby prevent or cause ineffi cient liquidation of projects with a long horizon. We show that if CRAs can impact real outcomes, then their reputation concerns hamper truthful revelation of information, and, as a consequence, limit their ratings’informational content. We then show that equilibrium behavior is shaped by two prominent regimes: (i) an ‘optimistic’regime in which CRAs tend to give good ratings, and (ii) a ‘pessimistic’regime in which CRAs tend to give bad ratings. But both regimes are self-defeating: (i) only bad ratings do affect investors’ behavior in an optimistic regime while (ii) only good ratings affect investors’ behavior in a pessimistic regime. Existing evidence on the environment preceding the financial turmoil starting in 2007-2008 fits with our characterization of an optimistic regime. Henc...

Research paper thumbnail of The Oil market as an oligopoly

This paper treats the oil market as an oligopoly with a competitive fringe. The oligopoly is assu... more This paper treats the oil market as an oligopoly with a competitive fringe. The oligopoly is assumed to consist of Egypt, Oman, Mexico, Malaysia and Norway plus all OPEC members. The remaining oil producing countries are included in a fringe which by assumption takes the oil price development as exogenously given. Outcomes with varying degrees of collusion within the oligopoly are specified. Intermediate cases are also studied, such as complete or partial cooperation within OPEC, but no cooperation between OPEC and any other countries in the oligopoly. The model is implemented in the PCbased MODLER software, and empirical results from the simulations on the different model versions are presented. Not to be quoted without permission from author(s). Comments welcome. THE OIL MARKET AS AN OLIGOPOLY Kjell Berger, Michael Hoel, Steinar Holden and . Øystein Olsen *

Research paper thumbnail of Successful Fiscal Adjustments. Does Choice of Fiscal Instrument Matter?

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2013

Research paper thumbnail of An Equilibrium Model of Credit Rating Agencies

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2012

Research paper thumbnail of Monetary Regime and the Co-Ordination of Wage Setting

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000

Research paper thumbnail of Implications of Insights from Behavioral Economics for Macroeconomic Models

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2012

Research paper thumbnail of Wage Rigidity, Institutions, and Inflation

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2009

Research paper thumbnail of Indebtedness and Unemployment: A Durable Relationship

SSRN Electronic Journal, 1998

Research paper thumbnail of Do Government Purchases Affect Unemployment?

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2011

Research paper thumbnail of Behavioral Economics and Macroeconomic Models

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2014

Research paper thumbnail of Coordination, Fair Treatment and Inflation Persistence

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2003

Research paper thumbnail of Discrimination and Employment Protection

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2011

Research paper thumbnail of Økt sysselsetting krever en helhetligpolitikk med styrket kompetanse, gode insentiver og økt etterspørsel– svar til Kristian Heggebø

Tidsskrift for samfunnsforskning

Research paper thumbnail of Large’ vs. ‘small’ players: A closer look at the dynamics of speculative attacks.” mimeo, SIFR and Norwegian School of Management

What is the role of “large players”, e.g., hedge funds, in speculative attacks? Recent work sugge... more What is the role of “large players”, e.g., hedge funds, in speculative attacks? Recent work suggests that large players move early to induce smaller agents to attack. However, many observers argue that large players move late so as to benefit from interest rate differentials. We propose a model where large players can do both. Using data on currency trading by foreign (large) and local (small) players, we find that foreign players moved last in three attacks on the Norwegian krone during the 1990s. During the attack on the Swedish krona after the Russian moratorium in 1998, foreign players moved early. Gains by delaying attack were small, however, since interest rates did not increase.

Research paper thumbnail of 2NON-COOPERATIVE Wage Bargatntng

The paper argtues that the Rubinstein perfect informat ion inf in j- te-hor izon al- ternat ing-o... more The paper argtues that the Rubinstein perfect informat ion inf in j- te-hor izon al- ternat ing-of fers model is problemat ic when appl ied to wage negot iat ions. A str ike or any other industr iaf act ion is not an automat ic consequence of a delay in reaching an agreement, because product ion can cont inue as normal- a l-so when negot iat ions take place. An inf in i te-hor izon al ternat ing-of fers model incorporat ing the choice of cal l ing a str ike is devel-oped. I t is shown that in th is model there j-s no longer a unique subgame perfect equi l ibr ium, and that str ikes wi th a length in real t i rne can occur in equi l ibr ium.

Research paper thumbnail of Wage Differentiation via Subsidised General Training ∗

We provide a new explanation for why firms pay for general training in a competitive labor market... more We provide a new explanation for why firms pay for general training in a competitive labor market. If firms are unable to tailor individual wages to ability, for informational or institutional reasons, they will pay for general training in order to attract better quality workers. The market provision of training may well exceed the first best level. Our explanation relies on wage compression within skill categories, while imperfect competition based explanations rely on wage compression across skill categories. JEL Categories: J31, D82. ∗Thanks to Alison Booth, Espen Moen and seminar participants at Essex for useful comments. V. Bhaskar thanks the Economic and Social Research Council, UK for its

Research paper thumbnail of The interaction of labor markets and inflation: micro evidence from the international wage flexibility project. mimeo

We gratefully acknowledge the support and hospitality of our hosts, the European Central Bank.

Research paper thumbnail of No. 07‐6 How Strong is the Macroeconomic Case for Downward Real Wage Rigidity?

This paper explores the existence of downward real wage rigidity (DRWR) in 19 OECD countries, ove... more This paper explores the existence of downward real wage rigidity (DRWR) in 19 OECD countries, over the period 1973–1999, using data for hourly nominal earnings at the industry level. Based on a nonparametric statistical method, which allows for country ‐ and year‐ specific variation in both the median and the dispersion of industry wage changes, we find evidence of some DRWR in OECD countries overall, as well as for specific geographical regions and time periods. There is some evidence that real wage cuts are less prevalent in countries with strict employment protection legislation and high union density. Generally, we find stronger evidence for downward nominal wage rigidity than for downward real wage rigidity.