Steven Kamin - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by Steven Kamin
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
Restructuring Japanese Business for Growth, 1999
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
Much has been written about prospects for U.S. current account adjustment, including the possibil... more Much has been written about prospects for U.S. current account adjustment, including the possibility of what is sometimes referred to as a "disorderly correction": a sharp fall in the exchange rate that boosts interest rates, depresses stock prices, and weakens economic activity. This paper assesses some of the empirical evidence bearing on the likelihood of the disorderly correction scenario, drawing
Among the various explanations for the runup in oil and commodity prices of recent years, one sto... more Among the various explanations for the runup in oil and commodity prices of recent years, one story focuses on the role of monetary policy in the United States and in developing economies. In this view, developing countries that peg their currencies to the dollar were forced to ease their monetary policies after reductions in U.S. interest rates, leading to economic
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
11 The Impact of Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates during Financial Crises David Gould and Steven... more 11 The Impact of Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates during Financial Crises David Gould and Steven Kamin 11.1 INTRODUCTION One of the most controversial issues that has emerged in the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis has been the appropriate response of mon ...
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
Financial Crises in Emerging Markets, 2001
11 The Impact of Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates during Financial Crises David Gould and Steven... more 11 The Impact of Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates during Financial Crises David Gould and Steven Kamin 11.1 INTRODUCTION One of the most controversial issues that has emerged in the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis has been the appropriate response of mon ...
Journal of International Money and Finance, 2011
In the past decade, some observers have noted an unusual aspect of the Mexican peso’s behavior: D... more In the past decade, some observers have noted an unusual aspect of the Mexican peso’s behavior: During periods when the U.S. dollar has risen (fallen) against other major currencies such as the euro, the peso has risen (fallen) against the dollar. Very few other currencies display this behavior. In this paper, we attempt to explain the unusual pattern of the
A broad array of domestic institutional factors--including problems with the originate-to-distrib... more A broad array of domestic institutional factors--including problems with the originate-to-distribute model for mortgage loans, deteriorating lending standards, deficiencies in risk management, conflicting incentives for the GSEs, and shortcomings of supervision and regulation--were the primary sources of the U.S. housing boom and bust and the associated financial crisis. In addition, the extended rise in U.S. house prices was likely also
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
Review of International Economics, 2009
AbstractBuilding on the panel-regression approach of Chinn and Prasad (2003) and Gruber and Kamin... more AbstractBuilding on the panel-regression approach of Chinn and Prasad (2003) and Gruber and Kamin (2007), we assess whether differences in financial development can explain the large developing-country surpluses or large US deficits. We find little evidence to support these hypotheses. We also assess whether differences in asset returns, an alternative measure of the attractiveness of financial assets, can explain the
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
ABSTRACT : The simultaneous occurrence of devaluation and recession in Mexico in 1995, as well as... more ABSTRACT : The simultaneous occurrence of devaluation and recession in Mexico in 1995, as well as in the East Asian economies more recently, appears to contradict the conventional view that devaluations are expansionary. Moreover, a sizeable theoretical and empirical literature also argues that, contrary to the predictions of textbook analysis, exchange rate devaluations may be contractionary rather than expansionary. However, prior statistical analyses of the effects of exchange rate devaluation on output have been subject to several limitations: (i) they have failed to distinguish adequately between short and long-run effects; (ii) they have not controlled for the full range of external shocks; and (iii) they have not considered whether the effects of devaluation might differ between different regions of the world. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the impact of devaluation on output for 27 countries while attempting to address these limitations in previous empirical analyses...
Considerable research has focused on explaining why currencies appreciate in real terms after the... more Considerable research has focused on explaining why currencies appreciate in real terms after the nominal exchange rate is stabilized, but this research generally has taken a theoretical approach, and rarely has tested its hypotheses empirically. In this paper I estimate a simple error-correction model for Mexico, based on the Salter-Swan framework, in which inflation is determined by (1) the gap between the actual real exchange rate and the exchange rate that clears the market for non-traded goods, and (2) persistence effects of past inflation. Using this model, I decompose the excess of Mexican inflation in 1988-94 over peso-adjusted international inflation rates--that is, the real appreciation of the peso--into that part attributable to the initial undervaluation of the peso, that part explained by the subsequent expansion of domestic demand, and that part attributable to inertial inflation. The results indicate that the effects of inertial inflation in appreciating the real exch...
Journal of International Money and Finance - J INT MONEY FINAN, 1999
This paper surveys a broad array of data to compare the scope and impact of three emerging market... more This paper surveys a broad array of data to compare the scope and impact of three emerging market financial crises: the debt crisis of the 1980s, the Mexican financial crisis of 1994–95, and the current international financial crisis. While certain conventional views regarding the three episodes are supported by the data examined in this paper, we find that in several respects, the current crisis is more similar to prior emerging market crisis episodes than is commonly believed.
The International Executive, 1996
This paper assesses some of the explanations that have been put forward for the global pattern of... more This paper assesses some of the explanations that have been put forward for the global pattern of current account imbalances that has emerged in recent years: in particular, the large U.S. current account deficit and the large surpluses of the Asian developing economies. Based on the approach developed by Chinn and Prasad (2003), we use data for 61 countries during 1982-2003 to estimate panel regression models for the ratio of the current account balance to GDP. We find that a model that includes as its explanatory variables the standard determinants of current accounts proposed in the literature-–per capita income, relative growth rates, the fiscal balance, demographic variables, and economic openness-–can account for neither the large U.S. deficit nor large Asian surpluses of the 1997-2003 period. However, when we include a variable representing financial crises, which might be expected to restrain domestic demand and boost the current account balance, the model explains much of d...
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
Restructuring Japanese Business for Growth, 1999
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
Much has been written about prospects for U.S. current account adjustment, including the possibil... more Much has been written about prospects for U.S. current account adjustment, including the possibility of what is sometimes referred to as a "disorderly correction": a sharp fall in the exchange rate that boosts interest rates, depresses stock prices, and weakens economic activity. This paper assesses some of the empirical evidence bearing on the likelihood of the disorderly correction scenario, drawing
Among the various explanations for the runup in oil and commodity prices of recent years, one sto... more Among the various explanations for the runup in oil and commodity prices of recent years, one story focuses on the role of monetary policy in the United States and in developing economies. In this view, developing countries that peg their currencies to the dollar were forced to ease their monetary policies after reductions in U.S. interest rates, leading to economic
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
11 The Impact of Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates during Financial Crises David Gould and Steven... more 11 The Impact of Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates during Financial Crises David Gould and Steven Kamin 11.1 INTRODUCTION One of the most controversial issues that has emerged in the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis has been the appropriate response of mon ...
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
Financial Crises in Emerging Markets, 2001
11 The Impact of Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates during Financial Crises David Gould and Steven... more 11 The Impact of Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates during Financial Crises David Gould and Steven Kamin 11.1 INTRODUCTION One of the most controversial issues that has emerged in the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis has been the appropriate response of mon ...
Journal of International Money and Finance, 2011
In the past decade, some observers have noted an unusual aspect of the Mexican peso’s behavior: D... more In the past decade, some observers have noted an unusual aspect of the Mexican peso’s behavior: During periods when the U.S. dollar has risen (fallen) against other major currencies such as the euro, the peso has risen (fallen) against the dollar. Very few other currencies display this behavior. In this paper, we attempt to explain the unusual pattern of the
A broad array of domestic institutional factors--including problems with the originate-to-distrib... more A broad array of domestic institutional factors--including problems with the originate-to-distribute model for mortgage loans, deteriorating lending standards, deficiencies in risk management, conflicting incentives for the GSEs, and shortcomings of supervision and regulation--were the primary sources of the U.S. housing boom and bust and the associated financial crisis. In addition, the extended rise in U.S. house prices was likely also
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
Review of International Economics, 2009
AbstractBuilding on the panel-regression approach of Chinn and Prasad (2003) and Gruber and Kamin... more AbstractBuilding on the panel-regression approach of Chinn and Prasad (2003) and Gruber and Kamin (2007), we assess whether differences in financial development can explain the large developing-country surpluses or large US deficits. We find little evidence to support these hypotheses. We also assess whether differences in asset returns, an alternative measure of the attractiveness of financial assets, can explain the
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
ABSTRACT : The simultaneous occurrence of devaluation and recession in Mexico in 1995, as well as... more ABSTRACT : The simultaneous occurrence of devaluation and recession in Mexico in 1995, as well as in the East Asian economies more recently, appears to contradict the conventional view that devaluations are expansionary. Moreover, a sizeable theoretical and empirical literature also argues that, contrary to the predictions of textbook analysis, exchange rate devaluations may be contractionary rather than expansionary. However, prior statistical analyses of the effects of exchange rate devaluation on output have been subject to several limitations: (i) they have failed to distinguish adequately between short and long-run effects; (ii) they have not controlled for the full range of external shocks; and (iii) they have not considered whether the effects of devaluation might differ between different regions of the world. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the impact of devaluation on output for 27 countries while attempting to address these limitations in previous empirical analyses...
Considerable research has focused on explaining why currencies appreciate in real terms after the... more Considerable research has focused on explaining why currencies appreciate in real terms after the nominal exchange rate is stabilized, but this research generally has taken a theoretical approach, and rarely has tested its hypotheses empirically. In this paper I estimate a simple error-correction model for Mexico, based on the Salter-Swan framework, in which inflation is determined by (1) the gap between the actual real exchange rate and the exchange rate that clears the market for non-traded goods, and (2) persistence effects of past inflation. Using this model, I decompose the excess of Mexican inflation in 1988-94 over peso-adjusted international inflation rates--that is, the real appreciation of the peso--into that part attributable to the initial undervaluation of the peso, that part explained by the subsequent expansion of domestic demand, and that part attributable to inertial inflation. The results indicate that the effects of inertial inflation in appreciating the real exch...
Journal of International Money and Finance - J INT MONEY FINAN, 1999
This paper surveys a broad array of data to compare the scope and impact of three emerging market... more This paper surveys a broad array of data to compare the scope and impact of three emerging market financial crises: the debt crisis of the 1980s, the Mexican financial crisis of 1994–95, and the current international financial crisis. While certain conventional views regarding the three episodes are supported by the data examined in this paper, we find that in several respects, the current crisis is more similar to prior emerging market crisis episodes than is commonly believed.
The International Executive, 1996
This paper assesses some of the explanations that have been put forward for the global pattern of... more This paper assesses some of the explanations that have been put forward for the global pattern of current account imbalances that has emerged in recent years: in particular, the large U.S. current account deficit and the large surpluses of the Asian developing economies. Based on the approach developed by Chinn and Prasad (2003), we use data for 61 countries during 1982-2003 to estimate panel regression models for the ratio of the current account balance to GDP. We find that a model that includes as its explanatory variables the standard determinants of current accounts proposed in the literature-–per capita income, relative growth rates, the fiscal balance, demographic variables, and economic openness-–can account for neither the large U.S. deficit nor large Asian surpluses of the 1997-2003 period. However, when we include a variable representing financial crises, which might be expected to restrain domestic demand and boost the current account balance, the model explains much of d...