Susan van 't Klooster - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by Susan van 't Klooster
B en M - Beleid en Maatschappij, 2003
Futures, 2011
1. The scenario challenge: accommodating change In theory, scenario development is a way to consi... more 1. The scenario challenge: accommodating change In theory, scenario development is a way to consider and prepare for future change. When drivers of change are not only multiple but also mutable, it is not sensible to extrapolate the future from data and relationships of the past. It is often argued that scenarios can provide a heuristic for identifying, understanding and responding to future change. Berkhout et al. [1] argue that, ''scenarios provide a response to the problems of discontinuity'' (p. 8). Adam and Groves [2] describe the ambitions of foresight by means of scenarios as recognising the problem of uncertainty, avoiding illusions about a knowable future and understanding ''emerging situations while they are still in flux'' (p. 32). Burt [3] even stated that ''all scenario project outcomes should reveal discontinuity, and the systemic sources of such discontinuity, if the project is to be deemed a success'' (p. 747). Similar arguments with regard to the potential of scenarios in terms of understanding new circumstances and challenging assumptions can be found in various textbooks and scholarly writings (see, for example [4-6]). However, despite the basic idea of scenarios as providing a heuristic for identifying, understanding and responding to changed conditions, many scenario studies are criticized for treating the future as an incremental continuation of the past [2,7-18]. It is argued that they fail to analyze what might happen if the future involves differently. In other words, they fail to Futures 43 (2011) 86-98
Futures, 2011
Assessments about the nature, rate, impacts of and responses to climate change deal with change i... more Assessments about the nature, rate, impacts of and responses to climate change deal with change in coupled environmental-human systems. In making future projections of climate variability and change, mitigation and adaptation, assessments are therefore faced with making assumptions about future social and economic changes, often over the longterm [1]. These assumptions will have an important influence on results of assessments, either because they are inputs for emissions scenarios that drive climate models (e.g. [2]), or because they portray the context in which climate change impacts, exposure, vulnerability and adaptation are analysed [3]. Climate models generate scenarios that provide information about e.g. the temperature and precipitation at a certain location in a specific timeframe. But the impacts of climate change can only be assessed if one has knowledge about the vulnerability and coping capacity of future societies. In climate assessments, socioeconomic scenarios are likely to be as important as climate scenarios. For instance, a recent study of flood risk in The Netherlands showed that the main contributor to growing losses in the coming four decades was not due to climate change (due to a growing risk of riverine flooding), but due to socioeconomic changes leading to greater exposure and vulnerability of populations and capital stocks [4]. Scenario planning can be applied to take possible future developments into account in investments, policy and planning. However, it is essential that organizations involved in such policies not only apply scenarios, but also engage in the process of Futures 43 (2011) 488-496
Futures, 2006
Studying the future seems a mission impossible, since both the appearance of the future and its u... more Studying the future seems a mission impossible, since both the appearance of the future and its underlying dynamics are unknown and unknowable. Nevertheless, the future is being studied by professional futurists. So, professional futurists seem to have found ways to structure 'the unknown'. The question is, then, how do they do this? Over the years, professional futurists have developed several types of techniques and methods to structure thinking and discussing the future. The scenario-axes technique, which aims to align divergent perspectives on how the future may unfold, is one such structuring device. In the past 2 years, we did ethnographic research at the Netherlands Institute for Spatial Research (RPB) and followed professional futurists constructing and applying scenario axes in their scenario projects. Our observations illustrate how the scenario axes are practised by professional futurists and show that the scenario axes do not function as a unifying structure fostering alignment of different perspectives in the way that scenario theorists and practitioners often suggest. Instead, not one, but three different applications and interpretations of functional meaning of the scenario axes co-existed: the scenario axes as a 'backbone', as a 'building scaffold' and as 'foundation'.
Global Environmental Change, 2018
Adaptive plans aim to anticipate uncertain future changes by combining low-regret short-term acti... more Adaptive plans aim to anticipate uncertain future changes by combining low-regret short-term actions with longterm options to adapt, if necessary. Monitoring and timely detection of relevant changes, and critical transitions or tipping points is crucial to ensure successful and timely implementation and reassessment of the plan. Although efforts have been made to identify signposts to monitor, the question remains how to design a signal monitoring system that detects and anticipates (future) change to support adaptive planning. For example, to support water related infrastructure investments under uncertain climate change. What are good signposts to monitor and how to wisely analyse them to get timely and reliable signals for adaptation? In this paper, we present a framework for designing and using a monitoring plan as part of the Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) approach for decision making under uncertainty. We use the following criteria to evaluate signposts and their critical signal values: measurability, timeliness, reliability, convincibility and institutional connectivity. We illustrate the approach based on the signal monitoring system for the adaptive plan developed by the Delta Programme in the Netherlands. Approaches for adaptive plans have strong roots in the fields of water and infrastructure management, transport, and defence. The related idea of adaptive management (Holling, 1978, 2001) originates from ecosystem management (Swanson et al., 2010). Adaptive management focuses on increasing adaptive capacity of the system by learning from experiments (Arvai et al., 2006; Bormann et al., 1994; Pahl-Wostl et al., 2007). This suggests an important role for monitoring the performance of the system. Adaptive planning uses monitoring for decision making on follow-up actions of a plan. The success of adaptive plans thus depends on monitoring and
River Research and Applications, 2004
Abstract Flood management of the Rhine and Meuse is surrounded by major uncertainties. The centra... more Abstract Flood management of the Rhine and Meuse is surrounded by major uncertainties. The central question is then: given the uncertainties, what is the best management strategy? Moreover, flood management cannot be considered independently from other river ...
How do professional futurists contend with prognostic uncertainty? There is an impressive body of... more How do professional futurists contend with prognostic uncertainty? There is an impressive body of medical-sociological research on how medical staff deals with uncertainty. We have used these insights to study patterns and manners in foresight practice that might not be evident otherwise. The question ''Do professional futurists use approaches to deal with uncertainty that resemble those of medical staff?'' is addressed by ongoing ethnographic research in Dutch foresight practice. The observed manners are grouped into four analytic categories: the construction of solidity, numeric discourse, communication habits and experience as anchor. In this paper, the construction of solidity and experience as anchor are described in detail. It is further more suggested that ''certainification'' is a possible upshot of these manners in use. r
Http Dx Doi Org 10 1080 1366879022000020185, Jul 2, 2010
Governments are in need of anticipating systems changes to reduce risks and stimulate desired dev... more Governments are in need of anticipating systems changes to reduce risks and stimulate desired developments. Although policy-oriented foresight proves to be helpful and increasingly important for governments stimulate a forward-looking attitude, there is little reflection on how do futurists deal with policy in policy-oriented foresight. The text books state that future policy should not be included in the scenarios to allow policy-makers to "wind-tunnel" future policies. Based upon ethnographic analysis in the Netherlands and on a review of internationally developed scenarios, we examine futurists' strategies and struggles with the policy-free ideal. Policy-oriented foresight, foresight in action, ethnographic research, policy-free ideal, scenarios
How do professional futurists contend with prognostic uncertainty? There is an impressive body of... more How do professional futurists contend with prognostic uncertainty? There is an impressive body of medical–sociological research on how medical staff deals with uncertainty. We have used these insights to study patterns and manners in foresight practice that might not be evident otherwise. The question ''Do professional futurists use approaches to deal with uncertainty that resemble those of medical staff?'' is addressed by ongoing ethnographic research in Dutch foresight practice. The observed manners are grouped into four analytic categories: the construction of solidity, numeric discourse, communication habits and experience as anchor. In this paper, the construction of solidity and experience as anchor are described in detail. It is further more suggested that ''certainification'' is a possible upshot of these manners in use.
A B S T R A C T Adaptive plans aim to anticipate uncertain future changes by combining low-regret... more A B S T R A C T Adaptive plans aim to anticipate uncertain future changes by combining low-regret short-term actions with long-term options to adapt, if necessary. Monitoring and timely detection of relevant changes, and critical transitions or tipping points is crucial to ensure successful and timely implementation and reassessment of the plan. Although efforts have been made to identify signposts to monitor, the question remains how to design a signal monitoring system that detects and anticipates (future) change to support adaptive planning. For example, to support water related infrastructure investments under uncertain climate change. What are good signposts to monitor and how to wisely analyse them to get timely and reliable signals for adaptation? In this paper, we present a framework for designing and using a monitoring plan as part of the Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) approach for decision making under uncertainty. We use the following criteria to evaluate signposts and their critical signal values: measurability, timeliness, reliability, convincibility and institutional connectivity. We illustrate the approach based on the signal monitoring system for the adaptive plan developed by the Delta Programme in the Netherlands.
River Research and …, Jan 1, 2004
Flood management of the Rhine and Meuse is surrounded by major uncertainties. The central questio... more Flood management of the Rhine and Meuse is surrounded by major uncertainties. The central question is then: given the uncertainties, what is the best management strategy? Moreover, flood management cannot be considered independently from other river functions such as nature, agriculture, inland navigation and landscape values. This raises the need for integrated scenarios that consider possible futures in a coherent and consistent way. In the present project a scenario study was carried out in which physical modelling has been combined with socio-cultural theory. The focus of the study was on flood risk management. Existing climate, land use and socio-economic scenarios, as well as water management strategies have been structured using the Perspectives method. This resulted in integrated scenarios for water management, each representing a different view of the future, together with the corresponding water management style. These were put in a scenario matrix with combinations of world views and management styles, where these both match and mis-match. Using a suite of existing modelling tools the implications of each scenario for the water systems were evaluated. Finally, a comparison of different water management styles under different possible futures was made, showing the risk, cost and benefits of different strategies. The scenario analyses demonstrate that-at the scale of the entire Rhine basin-the influence of climate change on extreme floods is much stronger than the influence of land use changes. Flood risk management in the lower river deltas should not fully rely on flood mitigation measures in the upstream basin. It also becomes clear that no flood risk management strategy is superior in all respects and in all circumstances and that safety versus societal costs is really a policy dilemma: win-win situations cannot always be attained. Under changing climate conditions, the present-day type of management in the lower river reaches runs the risk of becoming an expensive attempt to fully control flood risk problems, while trying to avoid real choices, without actually solving the problems in a long-term view.
Futures, 2011
Despite the basic idea of scenarios as providing a heuristic for identifying, understanding and r... more Despite the basic idea of scenarios as providing a heuristic for identifying, understanding and responding to changed conditions, many scenario studies are criticized for treating the future as an incremental continuation of the past. To understand this discrepancy between theoretical ambitions and actual practice with regard to accommodating change we followed professional futurists around. We observed that futurist curtail and slice time and we identified two temporal repertoires that inhibit different views on how (academic) knowledge about past and present is used in assessing the future: historic determinism and futuristic difference. Our empirically informed analysis is a story about ambitions in line with the futuristic difference, the re-introduction and rise of historic determinism and finally the fall of futuristic difference. Our analysis of foresight in action and foresight output yields that the retreat to historic determinism is a major pitfall for futurists in general. Our story suggest that the futures studies community needs to develop and encourage more adequate responses to the ‘siren’ of historic determinism. Practitioners who aim to employ futuristic difference throughout the foresight endeavour would then be better equipped to succeed in their ambitions.
B En M - Beleid En Maatschappij, 2003
Futures, 2006
Studying the future seems a mission impossible, since both the appearance of the future and its u... more Studying the future seems a mission impossible, since both the appearance of the future and its underlying dynamics are unknown and unknowable. Nevertheless, the future is being studied by professional futurists. So, professional futurists seem to have found ways to structure ‘the unknown’. The question is, then, how do they do this? Over the years, professional futurists have developed several types of techniques and methods to structure thinking and discussing the future. The scenario-axes technique, which aims to align divergent perspectives on how the future may unfold, is one such structuring device.In the past 2 years, we did ethnographic research at the Netherlands Institute for Spatial Research (RPB) and followed professional futurists constructing and applying scenario axes in their scenario projects. Our observations illustrate how the scenario axes are practised by professional futurists and show that the scenario axes do not function as a unifying structure fostering alignment of different perspectives in the way that scenario theorists and practitioners often suggest. Instead, not one, but three different applications and interpretations of functional meaning of the scenario axes co-existed: the scenario axes as a ‘backbone’, as a ‘building scaffold’ and as ‘foundation’.
River Research and Applications, 2004
Flood management of the Rhine and Meuse is surrounded by major uncertainties. The central questio... more Flood management of the Rhine and Meuse is surrounded by major uncertainties. The central question is then: given the uncertainties, what is the best management strategy? Moreover, flood management cannot be considered independently from other river functions such as nature, agriculture, inland navigation and landscape values. This raises the need for integrated scenarios that consider possible futures in a coherent and consistent way. In the present project a scenario study was carried out in which physical modelling has been combined with socio-cultural theory. The focus of the study was on flood risk management. Existing climate, land use and socio-economic scenarios, as well as water management strategies have been structured using the Perspectives method. This resulted in integrated scenarios for water management, each representing a different view of the future, together with the corresponding water management style. These were put in a scenario matrix with combinations of world views and management styles, where these both match and mis-match. Using a suite of existing modelling tools the implications of each scenario for the water systems were evaluated. Finally, a comparison of different water management styles under different possible futures was made, showing the risk, cost and benefits of different strategies. The scenario analyses demonstrate that–at the scale of the entire Rhine basin–the influence of climate change on extreme floods is much stronger than the influence of land use changes. Flood risk management in the lower river deltas should not fully rely on flood mitigation measures in the upstream basin. It also becomes clear that no flood risk management strategy is superior in all respects and in all circumstances and that safety versus societal costs is really a policy dilemma: win–win situations cannot always be attained. Under changing climate conditions, the present-day type of management in the lower river reaches runs the risk of becoming an expensive attempt to fully control flood risk problems, while trying to avoid real choices, without actually solving the problems in a long-term view. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
B en M - Beleid en Maatschappij, 2003
Futures, 2011
1. The scenario challenge: accommodating change In theory, scenario development is a way to consi... more 1. The scenario challenge: accommodating change In theory, scenario development is a way to consider and prepare for future change. When drivers of change are not only multiple but also mutable, it is not sensible to extrapolate the future from data and relationships of the past. It is often argued that scenarios can provide a heuristic for identifying, understanding and responding to future change. Berkhout et al. [1] argue that, ''scenarios provide a response to the problems of discontinuity'' (p. 8). Adam and Groves [2] describe the ambitions of foresight by means of scenarios as recognising the problem of uncertainty, avoiding illusions about a knowable future and understanding ''emerging situations while they are still in flux'' (p. 32). Burt [3] even stated that ''all scenario project outcomes should reveal discontinuity, and the systemic sources of such discontinuity, if the project is to be deemed a success'' (p. 747). Similar arguments with regard to the potential of scenarios in terms of understanding new circumstances and challenging assumptions can be found in various textbooks and scholarly writings (see, for example [4-6]). However, despite the basic idea of scenarios as providing a heuristic for identifying, understanding and responding to changed conditions, many scenario studies are criticized for treating the future as an incremental continuation of the past [2,7-18]. It is argued that they fail to analyze what might happen if the future involves differently. In other words, they fail to Futures 43 (2011) 86-98
Futures, 2011
Assessments about the nature, rate, impacts of and responses to climate change deal with change i... more Assessments about the nature, rate, impacts of and responses to climate change deal with change in coupled environmental-human systems. In making future projections of climate variability and change, mitigation and adaptation, assessments are therefore faced with making assumptions about future social and economic changes, often over the longterm [1]. These assumptions will have an important influence on results of assessments, either because they are inputs for emissions scenarios that drive climate models (e.g. [2]), or because they portray the context in which climate change impacts, exposure, vulnerability and adaptation are analysed [3]. Climate models generate scenarios that provide information about e.g. the temperature and precipitation at a certain location in a specific timeframe. But the impacts of climate change can only be assessed if one has knowledge about the vulnerability and coping capacity of future societies. In climate assessments, socioeconomic scenarios are likely to be as important as climate scenarios. For instance, a recent study of flood risk in The Netherlands showed that the main contributor to growing losses in the coming four decades was not due to climate change (due to a growing risk of riverine flooding), but due to socioeconomic changes leading to greater exposure and vulnerability of populations and capital stocks [4]. Scenario planning can be applied to take possible future developments into account in investments, policy and planning. However, it is essential that organizations involved in such policies not only apply scenarios, but also engage in the process of Futures 43 (2011) 488-496
Futures, 2006
Studying the future seems a mission impossible, since both the appearance of the future and its u... more Studying the future seems a mission impossible, since both the appearance of the future and its underlying dynamics are unknown and unknowable. Nevertheless, the future is being studied by professional futurists. So, professional futurists seem to have found ways to structure 'the unknown'. The question is, then, how do they do this? Over the years, professional futurists have developed several types of techniques and methods to structure thinking and discussing the future. The scenario-axes technique, which aims to align divergent perspectives on how the future may unfold, is one such structuring device. In the past 2 years, we did ethnographic research at the Netherlands Institute for Spatial Research (RPB) and followed professional futurists constructing and applying scenario axes in their scenario projects. Our observations illustrate how the scenario axes are practised by professional futurists and show that the scenario axes do not function as a unifying structure fostering alignment of different perspectives in the way that scenario theorists and practitioners often suggest. Instead, not one, but three different applications and interpretations of functional meaning of the scenario axes co-existed: the scenario axes as a 'backbone', as a 'building scaffold' and as 'foundation'.
Global Environmental Change, 2018
Adaptive plans aim to anticipate uncertain future changes by combining low-regret short-term acti... more Adaptive plans aim to anticipate uncertain future changes by combining low-regret short-term actions with longterm options to adapt, if necessary. Monitoring and timely detection of relevant changes, and critical transitions or tipping points is crucial to ensure successful and timely implementation and reassessment of the plan. Although efforts have been made to identify signposts to monitor, the question remains how to design a signal monitoring system that detects and anticipates (future) change to support adaptive planning. For example, to support water related infrastructure investments under uncertain climate change. What are good signposts to monitor and how to wisely analyse them to get timely and reliable signals for adaptation? In this paper, we present a framework for designing and using a monitoring plan as part of the Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) approach for decision making under uncertainty. We use the following criteria to evaluate signposts and their critical signal values: measurability, timeliness, reliability, convincibility and institutional connectivity. We illustrate the approach based on the signal monitoring system for the adaptive plan developed by the Delta Programme in the Netherlands. Approaches for adaptive plans have strong roots in the fields of water and infrastructure management, transport, and defence. The related idea of adaptive management (Holling, 1978, 2001) originates from ecosystem management (Swanson et al., 2010). Adaptive management focuses on increasing adaptive capacity of the system by learning from experiments (Arvai et al., 2006; Bormann et al., 1994; Pahl-Wostl et al., 2007). This suggests an important role for monitoring the performance of the system. Adaptive planning uses monitoring for decision making on follow-up actions of a plan. The success of adaptive plans thus depends on monitoring and
River Research and Applications, 2004
Abstract Flood management of the Rhine and Meuse is surrounded by major uncertainties. The centra... more Abstract Flood management of the Rhine and Meuse is surrounded by major uncertainties. The central question is then: given the uncertainties, what is the best management strategy? Moreover, flood management cannot be considered independently from other river ...
How do professional futurists contend with prognostic uncertainty? There is an impressive body of... more How do professional futurists contend with prognostic uncertainty? There is an impressive body of medical-sociological research on how medical staff deals with uncertainty. We have used these insights to study patterns and manners in foresight practice that might not be evident otherwise. The question ''Do professional futurists use approaches to deal with uncertainty that resemble those of medical staff?'' is addressed by ongoing ethnographic research in Dutch foresight practice. The observed manners are grouped into four analytic categories: the construction of solidity, numeric discourse, communication habits and experience as anchor. In this paper, the construction of solidity and experience as anchor are described in detail. It is further more suggested that ''certainification'' is a possible upshot of these manners in use. r
Http Dx Doi Org 10 1080 1366879022000020185, Jul 2, 2010
Governments are in need of anticipating systems changes to reduce risks and stimulate desired dev... more Governments are in need of anticipating systems changes to reduce risks and stimulate desired developments. Although policy-oriented foresight proves to be helpful and increasingly important for governments stimulate a forward-looking attitude, there is little reflection on how do futurists deal with policy in policy-oriented foresight. The text books state that future policy should not be included in the scenarios to allow policy-makers to "wind-tunnel" future policies. Based upon ethnographic analysis in the Netherlands and on a review of internationally developed scenarios, we examine futurists' strategies and struggles with the policy-free ideal. Policy-oriented foresight, foresight in action, ethnographic research, policy-free ideal, scenarios
How do professional futurists contend with prognostic uncertainty? There is an impressive body of... more How do professional futurists contend with prognostic uncertainty? There is an impressive body of medical–sociological research on how medical staff deals with uncertainty. We have used these insights to study patterns and manners in foresight practice that might not be evident otherwise. The question ''Do professional futurists use approaches to deal with uncertainty that resemble those of medical staff?'' is addressed by ongoing ethnographic research in Dutch foresight practice. The observed manners are grouped into four analytic categories: the construction of solidity, numeric discourse, communication habits and experience as anchor. In this paper, the construction of solidity and experience as anchor are described in detail. It is further more suggested that ''certainification'' is a possible upshot of these manners in use.
A B S T R A C T Adaptive plans aim to anticipate uncertain future changes by combining low-regret... more A B S T R A C T Adaptive plans aim to anticipate uncertain future changes by combining low-regret short-term actions with long-term options to adapt, if necessary. Monitoring and timely detection of relevant changes, and critical transitions or tipping points is crucial to ensure successful and timely implementation and reassessment of the plan. Although efforts have been made to identify signposts to monitor, the question remains how to design a signal monitoring system that detects and anticipates (future) change to support adaptive planning. For example, to support water related infrastructure investments under uncertain climate change. What are good signposts to monitor and how to wisely analyse them to get timely and reliable signals for adaptation? In this paper, we present a framework for designing and using a monitoring plan as part of the Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) approach for decision making under uncertainty. We use the following criteria to evaluate signposts and their critical signal values: measurability, timeliness, reliability, convincibility and institutional connectivity. We illustrate the approach based on the signal monitoring system for the adaptive plan developed by the Delta Programme in the Netherlands.
River Research and …, Jan 1, 2004
Flood management of the Rhine and Meuse is surrounded by major uncertainties. The central questio... more Flood management of the Rhine and Meuse is surrounded by major uncertainties. The central question is then: given the uncertainties, what is the best management strategy? Moreover, flood management cannot be considered independently from other river functions such as nature, agriculture, inland navigation and landscape values. This raises the need for integrated scenarios that consider possible futures in a coherent and consistent way. In the present project a scenario study was carried out in which physical modelling has been combined with socio-cultural theory. The focus of the study was on flood risk management. Existing climate, land use and socio-economic scenarios, as well as water management strategies have been structured using the Perspectives method. This resulted in integrated scenarios for water management, each representing a different view of the future, together with the corresponding water management style. These were put in a scenario matrix with combinations of world views and management styles, where these both match and mis-match. Using a suite of existing modelling tools the implications of each scenario for the water systems were evaluated. Finally, a comparison of different water management styles under different possible futures was made, showing the risk, cost and benefits of different strategies. The scenario analyses demonstrate that-at the scale of the entire Rhine basin-the influence of climate change on extreme floods is much stronger than the influence of land use changes. Flood risk management in the lower river deltas should not fully rely on flood mitigation measures in the upstream basin. It also becomes clear that no flood risk management strategy is superior in all respects and in all circumstances and that safety versus societal costs is really a policy dilemma: win-win situations cannot always be attained. Under changing climate conditions, the present-day type of management in the lower river reaches runs the risk of becoming an expensive attempt to fully control flood risk problems, while trying to avoid real choices, without actually solving the problems in a long-term view.
Futures, 2011
Despite the basic idea of scenarios as providing a heuristic for identifying, understanding and r... more Despite the basic idea of scenarios as providing a heuristic for identifying, understanding and responding to changed conditions, many scenario studies are criticized for treating the future as an incremental continuation of the past. To understand this discrepancy between theoretical ambitions and actual practice with regard to accommodating change we followed professional futurists around. We observed that futurist curtail and slice time and we identified two temporal repertoires that inhibit different views on how (academic) knowledge about past and present is used in assessing the future: historic determinism and futuristic difference. Our empirically informed analysis is a story about ambitions in line with the futuristic difference, the re-introduction and rise of historic determinism and finally the fall of futuristic difference. Our analysis of foresight in action and foresight output yields that the retreat to historic determinism is a major pitfall for futurists in general. Our story suggest that the futures studies community needs to develop and encourage more adequate responses to the ‘siren’ of historic determinism. Practitioners who aim to employ futuristic difference throughout the foresight endeavour would then be better equipped to succeed in their ambitions.
B En M - Beleid En Maatschappij, 2003
Futures, 2006
Studying the future seems a mission impossible, since both the appearance of the future and its u... more Studying the future seems a mission impossible, since both the appearance of the future and its underlying dynamics are unknown and unknowable. Nevertheless, the future is being studied by professional futurists. So, professional futurists seem to have found ways to structure ‘the unknown’. The question is, then, how do they do this? Over the years, professional futurists have developed several types of techniques and methods to structure thinking and discussing the future. The scenario-axes technique, which aims to align divergent perspectives on how the future may unfold, is one such structuring device.In the past 2 years, we did ethnographic research at the Netherlands Institute for Spatial Research (RPB) and followed professional futurists constructing and applying scenario axes in their scenario projects. Our observations illustrate how the scenario axes are practised by professional futurists and show that the scenario axes do not function as a unifying structure fostering alignment of different perspectives in the way that scenario theorists and practitioners often suggest. Instead, not one, but three different applications and interpretations of functional meaning of the scenario axes co-existed: the scenario axes as a ‘backbone’, as a ‘building scaffold’ and as ‘foundation’.
River Research and Applications, 2004
Flood management of the Rhine and Meuse is surrounded by major uncertainties. The central questio... more Flood management of the Rhine and Meuse is surrounded by major uncertainties. The central question is then: given the uncertainties, what is the best management strategy? Moreover, flood management cannot be considered independently from other river functions such as nature, agriculture, inland navigation and landscape values. This raises the need for integrated scenarios that consider possible futures in a coherent and consistent way. In the present project a scenario study was carried out in which physical modelling has been combined with socio-cultural theory. The focus of the study was on flood risk management. Existing climate, land use and socio-economic scenarios, as well as water management strategies have been structured using the Perspectives method. This resulted in integrated scenarios for water management, each representing a different view of the future, together with the corresponding water management style. These were put in a scenario matrix with combinations of world views and management styles, where these both match and mis-match. Using a suite of existing modelling tools the implications of each scenario for the water systems were evaluated. Finally, a comparison of different water management styles under different possible futures was made, showing the risk, cost and benefits of different strategies. The scenario analyses demonstrate that–at the scale of the entire Rhine basin–the influence of climate change on extreme floods is much stronger than the influence of land use changes. Flood risk management in the lower river deltas should not fully rely on flood mitigation measures in the upstream basin. It also becomes clear that no flood risk management strategy is superior in all respects and in all circumstances and that safety versus societal costs is really a policy dilemma: win–win situations cannot always be attained. Under changing climate conditions, the present-day type of management in the lower river reaches runs the risk of becoming an expensive attempt to fully control flood risk problems, while trying to avoid real choices, without actually solving the problems in a long-term view. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.