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Papers by Syed hassan Raza

Journal of Biology, Agriculture and Healthcare, 2015

Basic purpose of this paper is to check the effect of climate on the rice production of Punjab Pa... more Basic purpose of this paper is to check the effect of climate on the rice production of Punjab Pakistan. Secondary data of rice crop production of seven districts of Punjab were used for analysis. These districts are Multan, Bahawalpur, Faisalabad, Lahore, Jhelum, Sialkot and Sargodha which are selected on the bases of high rice production. Data is taken from Pakistan Bureau of Statistic and Pakistan Meteorological development. Fixed Effect model was used to analysis the data. The finding shows that temperature has positive effect on rice but it became harmful after the optimum point .Rainfall does not affect the any stage of rice production of Punjab.

Journal of Finance and Economics, 2014

International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, 2016

The main objective of this study was to check the effect of tax evasion on tax in Pakistan for th... more The main objective of this study was to check the effect of tax evasion on tax in Pakistan for the period of 1980-2014. Total Tax is taken as dependent variable and Export, Tax evasion and GDP are taken as independent variables in this study. Data was taken from World development Indicators (WDI), Handbook of Statistics and International Financial Statistics (IFS). ADF test was used to check the integrated order of the variables. Johansen Co-integration and error correction models were used to find out the long run and short run relationship among the variables. The empirical results showed that there is a statistically significant long-run negative relationship between total tax and tax evasion (illegal money) in Pakistan.

Journal of Finance and Economics, 2014

The study examined the relationship between Budget deficit and Trade deficit for the economy of P... more The study examined the relationship between Budget deficit and Trade deficit for the economy of Pakistan. Time series data was used from the period 1972 to 2011. Augmented Dickey Fuller Test used to check the stationary of the variables and found that all variables were stationary at first difference. Johansen Co-integration used to find the long relationship and found that budget deficit has positive effect on trade deficit in long run. Error correction model indicated the convergence or divergence of the economy in short run to long run. The ECM results showed that 30.88% convergence occur within year. Granger causality test used to check the direction of causality between the budget deficit and trade deficit and results was indicated that there is bi-directional between the variables.

Basic purpose of this paper is to check the effect of climate on the rice production of Punjab Pa... more Basic purpose of this paper is to check the effect of climate on the rice production of Punjab Pakistan. Secondary data of rice crop production of seven districts of Punjab were used for analysis. These districts are Multan, Bahawalpur, Faisalabad, Lahore, Jhelum, Sialkot and Sargodha which are selected on the bases of high rice production. Data is taken from Pakistan Bureau of Statistic and Pakistan Meteorological development. Fixed Effect model was used to analysis the data. The finding shows that temperature has positive effect on rice but it became harmful after the optimum point .Rainfall does not affect the any stage of rice production of Punjab.

This research paper investigates the determinants of financial development. Credit to private sec... more This research paper investigates the determinants of financial development. Credit to private sector is used as proxy of financial development in this study. Panel data from 1990 to 2012 on 27 developed and 30 developing countries has been used. The main interest of the research paper is to explore how different variables or indicators affect the credit to private sector as percentage of GDP (CPS) 1. The Hausman test is used to check weather fixed effect model is more appropriate or random effect model. Hausman test is in favor of Fixed Effect Model. The role of different important variables which effect the financial development have been found by using fixed effect model. It is concluded from empirical results that all exogenous variables except NFDI and RL have significant effect on financial development. Section I: Introduction The importance of financial development and economic growth have become more pronounced in recent years; in addition to other vital factors, the long term economic growth and welfare are correlated with the degree of financial development. There are different indicators to measure financial development such as size, depth, access, efficiency and stability of a financial system. The financial systems include markets, intermediaries, range of assets, institutions and regulations. A strong financial system guarantees the high capital accumulation (the rate of investment), trading, hedging, insurance services, diversified saving and portfolio choices etc. which facilitate and encourage the inflow of foreign capital and technological innovation. The greater financial development leads to poverty reduction, income inequality, mobilization of savings, better access of the poor to finance, high return investment, promotion of sound cooperate governance and enhancement of economic growth as well as welfare. The key importance of financial development and economic growth is generally acknowledged in the literature. However, the area of public sector borrowing from domestic banks and its impact on financial development and credit to private sector is still under-research. The public debt is often seen as a burden for both developing and developed countries. Since the early 1990s, there has been a fiscal improvement in both developing and developed countries due to restricted public debt; however, the fiscal adjustment in developed countries has been more noticeable than developing countries (World Economic Outlook, 2001). In recent years, the public debt in advanced countries has been falling while the emerging market countries do not follow the same trend. It is because advanced countries preferred to give credit to private sector than the public sector to avoid the crowding out situation. The crowding out situation limited the excess of private sector on credit from domestic banks both in developed and developing countries. The supply and demand of credit to the public and private sectors depends upon the macroeconomic conditions. If the level of public debt is high in the economy and macroeconomic variables indicate that the country's economic situation is vulnerable, domestic banks may be expected to prefer to finance public sector instead of private sector, which is more risky borrower. Thus, the private sector credit by the domestic banks may decline in such economies (IMF, Research Department, 2004), The credit to private sector is essential for the private investment and development in an economy. The domestic banks play a pivotal role in increasing employment, efficiency, productivity and inducing growth in an economy. However, in large emerging countries than advanced ones, the domestic banks mostly prefer to finance public sector to private sector. Thus, the private sector faces problems in finding credit for investment in form of crowding out systematically (Caballero and Krishnamurthy, 2004). The importance of financial sector cannot be denied as efficient financial system is a perquisite condition for 1 We use credit to private sector as percent of GDP (CPS) as proxy of financial development.

This research work is on the topic of an empirical estimation of Okun's law in context of Pakista... more This research work is on the topic of an empirical estimation of Okun's law in context of Pakistan. Coefficient of Okun's law is estimated to check whether this law exist in Pakistan's economy or not. Okun's law shows three to one link between real GDP and rate of unemployment. Time series data of real GDP and rate of unemployment of Pakistan have been used to find the validity of Okun's law. Duration of data is 1972-2012. Different three versions of Okun's law gap version, difference version and dynamic version are used to calculate the Okun's coefficient. Ordinary least square method is applied for anaylsis. The empirical results show that there is no existence of Okun's law in Pakistan's economy. Coefficients estimated by using all the three versions are very small and reject the presence of this law in Pakistan. • INTRODUCTION Arther Okun in 1962 presented a law about the relationship between real GDP and unemployment rate. He suggested a three percent growth in output is related with a one percent decrease in the rate of unemployment, ceteris paribus. When there will increase in production, more workers will be required to produce extra units. And there will be reduction in unemployment, so with the increase in the GDP, unemployment will decrease. But both the variables do not change with same proportion. GDP changes more rapidly rather than to change in unemployment. At the earlier studies Okun estimated the three present increase in GDP cause one present decrees in unemployment. But the later studies which were based on the latest data showed that two present GDP growths are associated with one present decrease in unemployment. The value of the coefficient may vary from country to country and economy to economy depending on the circumstances and economic situations. (Lal at el. 2010) Estimation of Okun's coefficient which is a measure of the responsiveness of unemployment to output growth is important because it shows the cost of unemployment in terms of output. Okun's law is often used as a scale for computing the cost of unemployment. However, it is also essential to examine and watch out if the impact of the variations in the country's growth to the variations of unemployment is harmful to the citizen of Pakistan and in which the appropriate policies are needed. This paper aimed at the estimation of the coefficient of Okun's law to check the existence of Okun's law from Pakistan economy and to give some policy recommendations in the light of estimated coefficient. The purpose of this paper is to calculate Okun's coefficient, and discover the validity of Okun's law for Pakistan. The inspiration for doing this work is straight forward, if Okun's law is valid for Pakistan this will give an idea about the kind of unemployment which would then suggest whether or not unemployment can be decreased by increasing growth. This research paper estimates the validity of Okun's law in Pakistan's economy whether both unemployment rate and GDP growth are linked with each other or not to find the intensity of this relationship as well as direction of association. According to Okun's formulation, GDP growth causes diminishing trend in unemployment rate. The growth in GDP means an increase in real GDP over time and real GDP means value of all goods and services formed in any economy adjusted for price changes. This research is important not only in order to know how much the output of this country causes changes in unemployment rate but also the mechanism through which these effects take place. For a country that has suffered considerably from the persistence of high regional unemployment dispersion, the knowledge of this relationship for is important from the point of view of the implementation of appropriate economic policies. This paper includes the three versions of Okun's law. Dynamic version is also used for the estimation of coefficient. This version has not been used by any researcher before in context of Pakistan's economy. Extended time period from 1972 to 2012 is used. The implementation of adequate policies to continue with the reduction of unemployment and then with a higher growth of output is one of the main goals of Pakistani national and regional policy makers. In order to devise these policies it would be essential to explain if there is a relationship

Journal of Biology, Agriculture and Healthcare, 2015

Basic purpose of this paper is to check the effect of climate on the rice production of Punjab Pa... more Basic purpose of this paper is to check the effect of climate on the rice production of Punjab Pakistan. Secondary data of rice crop production of seven districts of Punjab were used for analysis. These districts are Multan, Bahawalpur, Faisalabad, Lahore, Jhelum, Sialkot and Sargodha which are selected on the bases of high rice production. Data is taken from Pakistan Bureau of Statistic and Pakistan Meteorological development. Fixed Effect model was used to analysis the data. The finding shows that temperature has positive effect on rice but it became harmful after the optimum point .Rainfall does not affect the any stage of rice production of Punjab.

Journal of Finance and Economics, 2014

International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, 2016

The main objective of this study was to check the effect of tax evasion on tax in Pakistan for th... more The main objective of this study was to check the effect of tax evasion on tax in Pakistan for the period of 1980-2014. Total Tax is taken as dependent variable and Export, Tax evasion and GDP are taken as independent variables in this study. Data was taken from World development Indicators (WDI), Handbook of Statistics and International Financial Statistics (IFS). ADF test was used to check the integrated order of the variables. Johansen Co-integration and error correction models were used to find out the long run and short run relationship among the variables. The empirical results showed that there is a statistically significant long-run negative relationship between total tax and tax evasion (illegal money) in Pakistan.

Journal of Finance and Economics, 2014

The study examined the relationship between Budget deficit and Trade deficit for the economy of P... more The study examined the relationship between Budget deficit and Trade deficit for the economy of Pakistan. Time series data was used from the period 1972 to 2011. Augmented Dickey Fuller Test used to check the stationary of the variables and found that all variables were stationary at first difference. Johansen Co-integration used to find the long relationship and found that budget deficit has positive effect on trade deficit in long run. Error correction model indicated the convergence or divergence of the economy in short run to long run. The ECM results showed that 30.88% convergence occur within year. Granger causality test used to check the direction of causality between the budget deficit and trade deficit and results was indicated that there is bi-directional between the variables.

Basic purpose of this paper is to check the effect of climate on the rice production of Punjab Pa... more Basic purpose of this paper is to check the effect of climate on the rice production of Punjab Pakistan. Secondary data of rice crop production of seven districts of Punjab were used for analysis. These districts are Multan, Bahawalpur, Faisalabad, Lahore, Jhelum, Sialkot and Sargodha which are selected on the bases of high rice production. Data is taken from Pakistan Bureau of Statistic and Pakistan Meteorological development. Fixed Effect model was used to analysis the data. The finding shows that temperature has positive effect on rice but it became harmful after the optimum point .Rainfall does not affect the any stage of rice production of Punjab.

This research paper investigates the determinants of financial development. Credit to private sec... more This research paper investigates the determinants of financial development. Credit to private sector is used as proxy of financial development in this study. Panel data from 1990 to 2012 on 27 developed and 30 developing countries has been used. The main interest of the research paper is to explore how different variables or indicators affect the credit to private sector as percentage of GDP (CPS) 1. The Hausman test is used to check weather fixed effect model is more appropriate or random effect model. Hausman test is in favor of Fixed Effect Model. The role of different important variables which effect the financial development have been found by using fixed effect model. It is concluded from empirical results that all exogenous variables except NFDI and RL have significant effect on financial development. Section I: Introduction The importance of financial development and economic growth have become more pronounced in recent years; in addition to other vital factors, the long term economic growth and welfare are correlated with the degree of financial development. There are different indicators to measure financial development such as size, depth, access, efficiency and stability of a financial system. The financial systems include markets, intermediaries, range of assets, institutions and regulations. A strong financial system guarantees the high capital accumulation (the rate of investment), trading, hedging, insurance services, diversified saving and portfolio choices etc. which facilitate and encourage the inflow of foreign capital and technological innovation. The greater financial development leads to poverty reduction, income inequality, mobilization of savings, better access of the poor to finance, high return investment, promotion of sound cooperate governance and enhancement of economic growth as well as welfare. The key importance of financial development and economic growth is generally acknowledged in the literature. However, the area of public sector borrowing from domestic banks and its impact on financial development and credit to private sector is still under-research. The public debt is often seen as a burden for both developing and developed countries. Since the early 1990s, there has been a fiscal improvement in both developing and developed countries due to restricted public debt; however, the fiscal adjustment in developed countries has been more noticeable than developing countries (World Economic Outlook, 2001). In recent years, the public debt in advanced countries has been falling while the emerging market countries do not follow the same trend. It is because advanced countries preferred to give credit to private sector than the public sector to avoid the crowding out situation. The crowding out situation limited the excess of private sector on credit from domestic banks both in developed and developing countries. The supply and demand of credit to the public and private sectors depends upon the macroeconomic conditions. If the level of public debt is high in the economy and macroeconomic variables indicate that the country's economic situation is vulnerable, domestic banks may be expected to prefer to finance public sector instead of private sector, which is more risky borrower. Thus, the private sector credit by the domestic banks may decline in such economies (IMF, Research Department, 2004), The credit to private sector is essential for the private investment and development in an economy. The domestic banks play a pivotal role in increasing employment, efficiency, productivity and inducing growth in an economy. However, in large emerging countries than advanced ones, the domestic banks mostly prefer to finance public sector to private sector. Thus, the private sector faces problems in finding credit for investment in form of crowding out systematically (Caballero and Krishnamurthy, 2004). The importance of financial sector cannot be denied as efficient financial system is a perquisite condition for 1 We use credit to private sector as percent of GDP (CPS) as proxy of financial development.

This research work is on the topic of an empirical estimation of Okun's law in context of Pakista... more This research work is on the topic of an empirical estimation of Okun's law in context of Pakistan. Coefficient of Okun's law is estimated to check whether this law exist in Pakistan's economy or not. Okun's law shows three to one link between real GDP and rate of unemployment. Time series data of real GDP and rate of unemployment of Pakistan have been used to find the validity of Okun's law. Duration of data is 1972-2012. Different three versions of Okun's law gap version, difference version and dynamic version are used to calculate the Okun's coefficient. Ordinary least square method is applied for anaylsis. The empirical results show that there is no existence of Okun's law in Pakistan's economy. Coefficients estimated by using all the three versions are very small and reject the presence of this law in Pakistan. • INTRODUCTION Arther Okun in 1962 presented a law about the relationship between real GDP and unemployment rate. He suggested a three percent growth in output is related with a one percent decrease in the rate of unemployment, ceteris paribus. When there will increase in production, more workers will be required to produce extra units. And there will be reduction in unemployment, so with the increase in the GDP, unemployment will decrease. But both the variables do not change with same proportion. GDP changes more rapidly rather than to change in unemployment. At the earlier studies Okun estimated the three present increase in GDP cause one present decrees in unemployment. But the later studies which were based on the latest data showed that two present GDP growths are associated with one present decrease in unemployment. The value of the coefficient may vary from country to country and economy to economy depending on the circumstances and economic situations. (Lal at el. 2010) Estimation of Okun's coefficient which is a measure of the responsiveness of unemployment to output growth is important because it shows the cost of unemployment in terms of output. Okun's law is often used as a scale for computing the cost of unemployment. However, it is also essential to examine and watch out if the impact of the variations in the country's growth to the variations of unemployment is harmful to the citizen of Pakistan and in which the appropriate policies are needed. This paper aimed at the estimation of the coefficient of Okun's law to check the existence of Okun's law from Pakistan economy and to give some policy recommendations in the light of estimated coefficient. The purpose of this paper is to calculate Okun's coefficient, and discover the validity of Okun's law for Pakistan. The inspiration for doing this work is straight forward, if Okun's law is valid for Pakistan this will give an idea about the kind of unemployment which would then suggest whether or not unemployment can be decreased by increasing growth. This research paper estimates the validity of Okun's law in Pakistan's economy whether both unemployment rate and GDP growth are linked with each other or not to find the intensity of this relationship as well as direction of association. According to Okun's formulation, GDP growth causes diminishing trend in unemployment rate. The growth in GDP means an increase in real GDP over time and real GDP means value of all goods and services formed in any economy adjusted for price changes. This research is important not only in order to know how much the output of this country causes changes in unemployment rate but also the mechanism through which these effects take place. For a country that has suffered considerably from the persistence of high regional unemployment dispersion, the knowledge of this relationship for is important from the point of view of the implementation of appropriate economic policies. This paper includes the three versions of Okun's law. Dynamic version is also used for the estimation of coefficient. This version has not been used by any researcher before in context of Pakistan's economy. Extended time period from 1972 to 2012 is used. The implementation of adequate policies to continue with the reduction of unemployment and then with a higher growth of output is one of the main goals of Pakistani national and regional policy makers. In order to devise these policies it would be essential to explain if there is a relationship