Nadia Tahir - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Nadia Tahir

Pakistan Business Review, Aug 23, 2021

Competitiveness review, Oct 21, 2019

Lahore Journal of Economics, Jul 1, 2008

Lahore Journal of Economics, Jul 1, 2010

The objective of this paper is to assess the conditions for inflation targeting in Pakistan. The ... more The objective of this paper is to assess the conditions for inflation targeting in Pakistan. The recent inflationary surge in Pakistan calls for rethinking monetary policy afresh. This paper argues the case for inflation targeting in Pakistan as a policy option to achieve price stability. The country experienced an inflation rate of just below 10 percent during 1970-2009, which makes it a potential candidate for inflation targeting. Applying the VAR technique to data for the same period, inflation is shown to be adaptive in nature, leading us to reject the accelerationist hypothesis. The Lucas critique holds as people are found to use forward-looking models in forming expectations about inflation. The paper also sheds some light on the State Bank of Pakistan's level of preparedness for the possibility of adopting inflation targeting, for which transparency and autonomy are prerequisites. The interest rate channel can play the role of a nominal anchor in the long run.

Témoigner. Entre histoire et mémoire, 2014

Après les dictatures qui règnent sur l' Argentine, le Chili et l'Uruguay des années 1970 jusqu'en... more Après les dictatures qui règnent sur l' Argentine, le Chili et l'Uruguay des années 1970 jusqu'en 1990, le processus de résolution démocratique de ces histoires de terreur semble nécessairement en passer par la construction de récits et, ce faisant, de mémoires qui reconfigurent le passé. Au coeur de ces processus propres à chacun des pays, s'impose la figure de la victime que viennent questionner les textes rassemblés par Claudia Feld,

Background: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease with acute exacerbation is an important health ... more Background: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease with acute exacerbation is an important health burden. It is accompanied by hypoxia, hypercapnia and acidosis which cause vital functions to deteriorate in the body Objective:To determine the frequency of respiratory insufficiency in patients of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease with acute exacerbation. Study Design:It is a descriptive study of cross sectional. Duration and Setting:Study Conducted for the period of 0ne year from February 2014 to January 2015 in Pulmonology Department Jinnah post Graduate Medical Centre, Karachi. Subjects and Methods:The total number of patients included in the study was 383 and acute COPD exacerbation was present. Arterial blood sample was immediately collected at presentation, partial pressures of carbon dioxide, oxygen, pH and HCO3 were analyzed using an arterial blood gas analyzer and analyzed with Social...

The research intends to explore correlation between morale and satisfaction of teachers working a... more The research intends to explore correlation between morale and satisfaction of teachers working at universities. Moreover, it also intends to measure the difference of job satisfaction and morale on gender basis. This research was conducted on teachers from three public universities. 150 teachers were asked to provide their responses regarding the research, among them 72 university teachers provided their responses. For data collection two research tools, Job Satisfaction Scale and Morale scale, were adopted and used. Analysis of data was done through (SPSS) and Pearson r was used to find out correlation of morale and satisfaction from the job from universities of Pakistan. The results of the study show that both variables job satisfaction and morale were positively correlated. It shows that high satisfaction from the job enhances the morale and vice versa.

This paper sheds light on some problems of using Consumer Price Index (CPI) as the official measu... more This paper sheds light on some problems of using Consumer Price Index (CPI) as the official measure of inflation in Paldstan. It is observed that CPI has not only an upward bias but also has methodological deficiencies. Further, the paper investigates the direction of causation between CPI, money supply, exchange rate, interest rate, oil prices and fiscal deficit. Annual time series data of these variables for the period 1972-2007 and modified Granger Causality Test are used for determining the causation. The paper concludes that there exists bidirectional causality between CPI, broad money supply growth, market exchange rate, real GDP and fiscal deficit. This study shows for the first time in the case of Paldstan that the impact of real variables and shocks on CPI is significant.

The global research-policy-action network Women in Informal Employment: Globalizing and Organizin... more The global research-policy-action network Women in Informal Employment: Globalizing and Organizing (WIEGO) launched this dedicated urban policies research report series in October 2009. The series profiles content that makes either an empirical or theoretical contribution to existing knowledge about the urban working poor, their living and work environments and/or their organisations. Particular attention is paid to examining policy and planning paradigms and practice. The series includes statistical profiles of urban informal work and critical analysis of data gathering techniques. Attention is paid to methodological issues and innovations as well as suggestions for future research. All papers are peer reviewed. This Series is co-ordinated by WIEGO’s Urban Policies Programme Director, Caroline Skinner, who is based at the African

The available evidence in Pakistan suggests that inflation is a monetary phenomena. This paper ex... more The available evidence in Pakistan suggests that inflation is a monetary phenomena. This paper examines the relationship between the determinants of inflation and its volatility by using monthly data for 1990:M1-2007:M5. The determinants of inflation are estimated by a VAR analysis, which shows that inflation, the interest rate and money supply move together. A VAR model assumes constant error variance. We relaxed this assumption by employing an ARCH/GARCH model and conclude that inflation is volatile in nature. For measuring the qualitative nature of the inflationary process we used an EGARCH model. It confirms that the time effect model is significant. It also suggests that in the first four months of the calendar year, the inflationary shock is negative and it can, therefore, hamper growth.

Does aid cause conflict or promote human development? Pakistan has been a major aid recipient as ... more Does aid cause conflict or promote human development? Pakistan has been a major aid recipient as a strategic US ally since the cold war. Growth followed but with increasing inequalities and social tensions. Soviet-Afghan war brought arms and drugs culture. War on terrorism has produced ethnic and religious fractionalization. The relationship between aid, conflict and human development suffers from reverse moral hazard. On the basis of multinomial log it regression, we conclude that donors’ pursuit of strategic agenda creates conflict and low human development. Donors demand diligence and impose conditions to win cooperation and trust, while the recipient struggles with the after effects of aid shocks and waits for more aid to undertake expensive reforms.

The papers says that the informal sector in developing countries seems not only to be growing but... more The papers says that the informal sector in developing countries seems not only to be growing but also contributing to economic growth and linked with the formal sector of the economy.

This paper examines the relationship between foreign aid and conflict in Pakistan. The country ha... more This paper examines the relationship between foreign aid and conflict in Pakistan. The country has witnessed many internal and external conflicts from 1961-2013, the period of analysis. By applying Heckman selection procedure, the study finds that aid increases conflict. Given the fungibility of aid, the results show that aid and military expenditure increase the probability of conflict and inflation, but decrease the probability of tax mobilisation. The paper concludes that strategic objectives of donors create rifts and insecurity in the recipient society which in turn increases military expenditure and arms import. It further reduces the capability to govern and reform.

A recent amendment in Pakistan’s federal constitution allows provinces to borrow domestically and... more A recent amendment in Pakistan’s federal constitution allows provinces to borrow domestically and abroad. There is a concern that it may generate unsustainable debt burden, considering the country’s delinquent monetary policy and a historical deficit bias. The objective of this paper is to assess sustainability of public debt. First, we use Cecchetti, et al. (2010) methodology to regress public debt on indicators of fiscal stance i.e. primary deficit and structural deficit at federal level for the period 1976-2011. We conclude that fiscal stance remained opportunistically expansionary. Next, we look at debt sustainability and its implications for macroeconomic management at provincial level by separating the effects of growth and inflation on provincial public debt, interest payments, and primary balance by using the framework of Liu, et al. (2009). Our findings suggest declining debt sustainability at provincial level, which calls for a strong regulatory framework and coordination ...

This study examines inflation and the choice of monetary policy regime in Pakistan. Using the ann... more This study examines inflation and the choice of monetary policy regime in Pakistan. Using the annual series of 1970-71 to 2008-09 and the monthly series of 1990:M1-2007:M9, the study employs unstructured VAR, Time Varying Parameter and State Space models for understanding the dynamics of inflation and monetary policy in Pakistan. It is observed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the official measure of inflation in Pakistan, has not only an upward bias but also has methodological deficiencies.Further, the study investigates the direction of causation between the CPI, money supply, exchange rate, interest rate, oil prices, and fiscal deficit to conclude that there exists bidirectional causality between the CPI and call money rate.Analysis of determinants of inflation shows that inflation in Pakisan is monetary in nature: inflation, interest rate and money supply move together.The study then goes on to find that inflation generates negative shocks and it can, therefore, hamper growt...

The Pakistan Development Review, 2009

After six decades of its existence, Pakistan finds itself in an educational quagmire. There is no... more After six decades of its existence, Pakistan finds itself in an educational quagmire. There is not much to show in terms of national, provincial and local indicators of a standard variety. At the international level, the country has earned the notoriety of being regularly lower down on all known indices and league tables on human development, competitiveness and governance. Neglect of education lies at the heart of the problem. This is surprising because the thinking on the nature of the educational system required for the newly emerging country had started quite early. An All Pakistan Educational Conference was held on November 27, 1947 in Karachi. Education thus was the subject of the very first professional conference held in the country, bringing together all the stakeholders. The Father of the Nation set the guidelines in his detailed message: “Under foreign rule for over a century, in the very nature of things, I regret, sufficient attention has not been paid to the education ...

Pakistan Business Review, Aug 23, 2021

Competitiveness review, Oct 21, 2019

Lahore Journal of Economics, Jul 1, 2008

Lahore Journal of Economics, Jul 1, 2010

Témoigner. Entre histoire et mémoire, 2014

The Pakistan Development Review, 2009