Taweewat Wiangkham - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Taweewat Wiangkham

The Lancet Global Health, Dec 1, 2022

Background Health-care needs change throughout the life course. It is thus crucial to assess whet... more Background Health-care needs change throughout the life course. It is thus crucial to assess whether health systems provide access to quality health care for all ages. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019), we measured the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index overall and for select age groups in 204 locations from 1990 to 2019. Methods We distinguished the overall HAQ Index (ages 0-74 years) from scores for select age groups: the young (ages 0-14 years), working (ages 15-64 years), and post-working (ages 65-74 years) groups. For GBD 2019, HAQ Index construction methods were updated to use the arithmetic mean of scaled mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs) and risk-standardised death rates (RSDRs) for 32 causes of death that should not occur in the presence of timely, quality health care. Across locations and years, MIRs and RSDRs were scaled from 0 (worst) to 100 (best) separately, putting the HAQ Index on a different relative scale for each age group. We estimated absolute convergence for each group on the basis of whether the HAQ Index grew faster in absolute terms between 1990 and 2019 in countries with lower 1990 HAQ Index scores than countries with higher 1990 HAQ Index scores and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. SDI is a summary metric of overall development. Findings Between 1990 and 2019, the HAQ Index increased overall (by 19•6 points, 95% uncertainty interval 17•9-21•3), as well as among the young (22•5, 19•9-24•7), working (17•2, 15•2-19•1), and post-working (15•1, 13•2-17•0) age groups. Large differences in HAQ Index scores were present across SDI levels in 2019, with the overall index ranging from 30•7 (28•6-33•0) on average in low-SDI countries to 83•4 (82•4-84•3) on average in high-SDI countries. Similarly large ranges between low-SDI and high-SDI countries, respectively, were estimated in the HAQ Index for the young (40•4-89•0), working (33•8-82•8), and post-working (30•4-79•1) groups. Absolute convergence in HAQ Index was estimated in the young group only. In contrast, divergence was estimated among the working and post-working groups, driven by slow progress in low-SDI countries. Interpretation Although major gaps remain across levels of social and economic development, convergence in the young group is an encouraging sign of reduced disparities in health-care access and quality. However, divergence in the working and post-working groups indicates that health-care access and quality is lagging at lower levels of social and economic development. To meet the needs of ageing populations, health systems need to improve health-care access and quality for working-age adults and older populations while continuing to realise gains among the young. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Background Low back pain is highly prevalent and the main cause of years lived with disability (Y... more Background Low back pain is highly prevalent and the main cause of years lived with disability (YLDs). We present the most up-to-date global, regional, and national data on prevalence and YLDs for low back pain from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021. Methods Population-based studies from 1980 to 2019 identified in a systematic review, international surveys, US medical claims data, and dataset contributions by collaborators were used to estimate the prevalence and YLDs for low back pain from 1990 to 2020, for 204 countries and territories. Low back pain was defined as pain between the 12th ribs and the gluteal folds that lasted a day or more; input data using alternative definitions were adjusted in a network meta-regression analysis. Nested Bayesian meta-regression models were used to estimate prevalence and YLDs by age, sex, year, and location. Prevalence was projected to 2050 by running a regression on prevalence rates using Socio-demographic Index as a predictor, then multiplying them by projected population estimates. Findings In 2020, low back pain affected 619 million (95% uncertainty interval 554-694) people globally, with a projection of 843 million (759-933) prevalent cases by 2050. In 2020, the global age-standardised rate of YLDs was 832 per 100 000 (578-1070). Between 1990 and 2020, age-standardised rates of prevalence and YLDs decreased by 10•4% (10•9-10•0) and 10•5% (11•1-10•0), respectively. A total of 38•8% (28•7-47•0) of YLDs were attributed to occupational factors, smoking, and high BMI. Interpretation Low back pain remains the leading cause of YLDs globally, and in 2020, there were more than half a billion prevalent cases of low back pain worldwide. While age-standardised rates have decreased modestly over the past three decades, it is projected that globally in 2050, more than 800 million people will have low back pain. Challenges persist in obtaining primary country-level data on low back pain, and there is an urgent need for more high-quality, primary, country-level data on both prevalence and severity distributions to improve accuracy and monitor change.

Disability and Rehabilitation

Disability and Rehabilitation

Physiotherapy Theory and Practice

BACKGROUND The modified STarT Back Screening Tool (mSBST) can be used to classify individuals wit... more BACKGROUND The modified STarT Back Screening Tool (mSBST) can be used to classify individuals with neck pain (NP) into low, medium, and high risk for chronicity. However, the mSBST-Thai version (mSBST-TH) for NP does not exist. OBJECTIVES The aims of this study were to adapt the SBST-TH into the mSBST-TH and evaluate its psychometric properties. METHODS The adaptation process committee included one researcher, one musculoskeletal physical therapist, and one Thai linguistic expert. A total of 261 participants (aged 20-70 years) with NP in Phitsanulok Province were invited to complete the mSBST-TH, visual analogue scale, neck disability index, fear-avoidance beliefs questionnaire (FABQ), pain catastrophizing scale, EuroQol five-dimensions five-levels questionnaire (EQ5D-5L), and EQ5D-5L-visual analogue scale (EQ5D-5L-VAS). Fifty participants completed the mSBST-TH twice, with an interval of 48 hours to perform test-retest reliability. RESULTS The Cronbach's alpha coefficient of the mSBST-TH total score was 0.73. Factor analysis revealed two components, psychosocial and physical. The intraclass correlation coefficient of test-retest reliability was found to be 0.81 for the total score. Moderate correlations were found between the mSBST-TH and all questionnaires, except for the FABQ-work. The discriminative validity was excellent between the mSBST-TH total score and the EQ5D-5L-VAS. The standard error of measurement and minimal detectable change of the mSBST-TH total score were 0.56 and 1.56, respectively. No significant floor and ceiling effects were found. CONCLUSION The mSBST-TH was successfully adapted with no ambiguity reported. Furthermore, the mSBST-TH has presented acceptable psychometric evaluation.

The Lancet Global Health

Background Health-care needs change throughout the life course. It is thus crucial to assess whet... more Background Health-care needs change throughout the life course. It is thus crucial to assess whether health systems provide access to quality health care for all ages. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019), we measured the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index overall and for select age groups in 204 locations from 1990 to 2019. Methods We distinguished the overall HAQ Index (ages 0-74 years) from scores for select age groups: the young (ages 0-14 years), working (ages 15-64 years), and post-working (ages 65-74 years) groups. For GBD 2019, HAQ Index construction methods were updated to use the arithmetic mean of scaled mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs) and risk-standardised death rates (RSDRs) for 32 causes of death that should not occur in the presence of timely, quality health care. Across locations and years, MIRs and RSDRs were scaled from 0 (worst) to 100 (best) separately, putting the HAQ Index on a different relative scale for each age group. We estimated absolute convergence for each group on the basis of whether the HAQ Index grew faster in absolute terms between 1990 and 2019 in countries with lower 1990 HAQ Index scores than countries with higher 1990 HAQ Index scores and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. SDI is a summary metric of overall development. Findings Between 1990 and 2019, the HAQ Index increased overall (by 19•6 points, 95% uncertainty interval 17•9-21•3), as well as among the young (22•5, 19•9-24•7), working (17•2, 15•2-19•1), and post-working (15•1, 13•2-17•0) age groups. Large differences in HAQ Index scores were present across SDI levels in 2019, with the overall index ranging from 30•7 (28•6-33•0) on average in low-SDI countries to 83•4 (82•4-84•3) on average in high-SDI countries. Similarly large ranges between low-SDI and high-SDI countries, respectively, were estimated in the HAQ Index for the young (40•4-89•0), working (33•8-82•8), and post-working (30•4-79•1) groups. Absolute convergence in HAQ Index was estimated in the young group only. In contrast, divergence was estimated among the working and post-working groups, driven by slow progress in low-SDI countries. Interpretation Although major gaps remain across levels of social and economic development, convergence in the young group is an encouraging sign of reduced disparities in health-care access and quality. However, divergence in the working and post-working groups indicates that health-care access and quality is lagging at lower levels of social and economic development. To meet the needs of ageing populations, health systems need to improve health-care access and quality for working-age adults and older populations while continuing to realise gains among the young. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The Lancet Public Health

Background Globally, transport and unintentional injuries persist as leading preventable causes o... more Background Globally, transport and unintentional injuries persist as leading preventable causes of mortality and morbidity for adolescents. We sought to report comprehensive trends in injury-related mortality and morbidity for adolescents aged 10-24 years during the past three decades. Methods Using the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2019 Study, we analysed mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributed to transport and unintentional injuries for adolescents in 204 countries. Burden is reported in absolute numbers and age-standardised rates per 100 000 population by sex, age group (10-14, 15-19, and 20-24 years), and sociodemographic index (SDI) with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We report percentage changes in deaths and DALYs between 1990 and 2019. Findings In 2019, 369 061 deaths (of which 214 337 [58%] were transport related) and 31•1 million DALYs (of which 16•2 million [52%] were transport related) among adolescents aged 10-24 years were caused by transport and unintentional injuries combined. If compared with other causes, transport and unintentional injuries combined accounted for 25% of deaths and 14% of DALYs in 2019, and showed little improvement from 1990 when such injuries accounted for 26% of adolescent deaths and 17% of adolescent DALYs. Throughout adolescence, transport and unintentional injury fatality rates increased by age group. The unintentional injury burden was higher among males than females for all injury types, except for injuries related to fire, heat, and hot substances, or to adverse effects of medical treatment. From 1990 to 2019, global mortality rates declined by 34•4% (from 17•5 to 11•5 per 100 000) for transport injuries, and by 47•7% (from 15•9 to 8•3 per 100 000) for unintentional injuries. However, in low-SDI nations the absolute number of deaths increased (by 80•5% to 42 774 for transport injuries and by 39•4% to 31 961 for unintentional injuries). In the high-SDI quintile in 2010-19, the rate per 100 000 of transport injury DALYs was reduced by 16•7%, from 838 in 2010 to 699 in 2019. This was a substantially slower pace of reduction compared with the 48•5% reduction between 1990 and 2010, from 1626 per 100 000 in 1990 to 838 per 100 000 in 2010. Between 2010 and 2019, the rate of unintentional injury DALYs per 100 000 also remained largely unchanged in high-SDI countries (555 in 2010 vs 554 in 2019; 0•2% reduction). The number and rate of adolescent deaths and DALYs owing to environmental heat and cold exposure increased for the high-SDI quintile during 2010-19. Interpretation As other causes of mortality are addressed, inadequate progress in reducing transport and unintentional injury mortality as a proportion of adolescent deaths becomes apparent. The relative shift in the burden of injury from high-SDI countries to low and low-middle-SDI countries necessitates focused action, including global donor, government, and industry investment in injury prevention. The persisting burden of DALYs related to transport and unintentional injuries indicates a need to prioritise innovative measures for the primary prevention of adolescent injury. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

BMJ Open

IntroductionNeck pain (NP) is a common musculoskeletal complaint and is increasing in prevalence.... more IntroductionNeck pain (NP) is a common musculoskeletal complaint and is increasing in prevalence. Current clinical practice guidelines and systematic reviews recommended conservative, pharmacological and invasive interventions for individuals with NP. However, optimal management specifically for those who are middle-aged or older adults (≥45 years) is not available; and important considering our ageing population.Methods and analysisA systematic review with network meta-analysis (NMA) will be conducted following the Cochrane guidelines. Eligibility criteria include randomised controlled/clinical trials evaluating any of acute (<3 months) or chronic (≥3 months) non-specific NP, whiplash associated disorders, cervical radiculopathy and cervicogenic headache. Any interventions and outcome measures detailed within The International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health domains will be included. Two independent reviewers will search key databases (AMED, CENTRAL, CINAHL,...

Reiner RC Jr, Hay SI. Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mor... more Reiner RC Jr, Hay SI. Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2020; 395: 1779–801—In this Article, the author byline has been amended to Local Burden of Disease Diarrhoea Collaborators. This correction has been made to the online version as of June 4, 2020, and the printed version is correct

Background: Sacroiliac joint dysfunction (SJD) is an important cause of low back pain (LBP), comm... more Background: Sacroiliac joint dysfunction (SJD) is an important cause of low back pain (LBP), commonly overlooked. Although the association of leg length discrepancy (LLD) and LBP was established, no study has examined the association between LLD and asymptomatic SJD (ASJD). Objective: To examine the correlation between LLD and ASJD in young males. Methods: One hundred subjects wearing a comfortable and thin uniform were randomized into three rooms (consisting of leg length measurement, palpation and special test rooms). One high valid and reliable assessor was allocated in each room. All subjects were assessed three times (one time a room and then randomly assigned by a project manager to other rooms until reaching three times a test) to reduce potential biases and errors. Logistic regression was used to examine the association between the degree of LLD and ASJD. The association between ASJD and affected leg was examined by Chi-square test. Results: The mean age and LLD of subjects were 20.3  1.4 years and 6.3  3.8 mm., respectively. The number of structural and functional LLD were found (50 subjects each type). The ASJD was found in 95 (46 structural, 49 functional) subjects. There was no significant correlation between the degree of LLD and ASJD (odds ratio = 0.99 (95% confident interval (0.78, 1.26), P = 0.94). However, the affected leg (short leg) associated with ASJD (P < 0.001). Conclusions: Young males with mild LLD can have ASJD. The study suggests that the shorter leg in people with mild LLD could have higher chance for ASJD. Shoe lifts may be an optional procedure to prevent symptomatic SJD, especially structural LLD.

Whiplash-associated disorder (WAD) causes substantial social and economic burden, with ≥70% patie... more Whiplash-associated disorder (WAD) causes substantial social and economic burden, with ≥70% patients classified as WADII. Effective management in the acute stage is required to prevent development of chronicity for approximately 60% patients. A novel Active Behavioural Physiotherapy Intervention (ABPI) addressing both physical and psychological components of WAD was developed and evaluated as a complex intervention for acute WADII through a sequential multiphase project. Each phase was conducted using rigorous, precise and transparent methodologies according to pre-defined protocols. A systematic review and meta-analysis found that the combination of active physiotherapy and behavioural interventions may be a useful strategy. A modified Delphi study (international research and UK clinical whiplash experts) identified the underlying principles, and physiotherapy and behavioural treatment components of the ABPI. As no underpinning psychological theory was identified, the ABPI was furt...

Scandinavian Journal of Pain, 2020

Objectives Fear-avoidance beliefs questionnaire (FABQ) is a self-report, valid and reliable quest... more Objectives Fear-avoidance beliefs questionnaire (FABQ) is a self-report, valid and reliable questionnaire to quantify fear and avoidance beliefs related to physical activity and work. Furthermore, it can be used to predict prolong disability in patients with non-specific neck pain. Although it was originally developed to manage patients with low back pain, it has also been studied in individuals with neck pain. This questionnaire was translated into several languages following reports of potential benefits in patients with neck pain. Recently, Thai neck clinical trials, international multi-centre trials and data sharing are growing throughout the world but no validated Thai version of the FABQ is available for clinical and research uses. Our objectives were to translate and cross-culturally adapt the FABQ into Thai version and evaluate its psychometric properties in Thai patients with non-specific neck pain. Methods Cross-cultural translation and adaptation of the FABQ were conducte...

Nature Medicine, 2021

Anemia is a globally widespread condition in women and is associated with reduced economic produc... more Anemia is a globally widespread condition in women and is associated with reduced economic productivity and increased mortality worldwide. Here we map annual 2000–2018 geospatial estimates of anemia prevalence in women of reproductive age (15–49 years) across 82 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), stratify anemia by severity and aggregate results to policy-relevant administrative and national levels. Additionally, we provide subnational disparity analyses to provide a comprehensive overview of anemia prevalence inequalities within these countries and predict progress toward the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target (WHO GNT) to reduce anemia by half by 2030. Our results demonstrate widespread moderate improvements in overall anemia prevalence but identify only three LMICs with a high probability of achieving the WHO GNT by 2030 at a national scale, and no LMIC is expected to achieve the target in all their subnational administrative units. Our maps show where lar...

The Lancet, 2020

Background In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable disease... more Background In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990-2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0-9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10-24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10-24 years were also in the top ten in the 25-49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50-74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and development investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The Lancet Global Health, 2020

Background Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential huma... more Background Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the Sustainable Development Goals as crucial for preventing disease and improving human wellbeing. Comprehensive, high-resolution estimates are important to inform progress towards achieving this goal. We aimed to produce highresolution geospatial estimates of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities. Methods We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from 600 sources across more than 88 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) to estimate access to drinking water and sanitation facilities on continuous continent-wide surfaces from 2000 to 2017, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. We estimated mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subcategories of facilities for drinking water (piped water on or off premises, other improved facilities, unimproved, and surface water) and sanitation facilities (septic or sewer sanitation, other improved, unimproved, and open defecation) with use of ordinal regression. We also estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths in children younger than 5 years attributed to unsafe facilities and estimated deaths that were averted by increased access to safe facilities in 2017, and analysed geographical inequality in access within LMICs. Findings Across LMICs, access to both piped water and improved water overall increased between 2000 and 2017, with progress varying spatially. For piped water, the safest water facility type, access increased from 40•0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39•4-40•7) to 50•3% (50•0-50•5), but was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, where access to piped water was mostly concentrated in urban centres. Access to both sewer or septic sanitation and improved sanitation overall also increased across all LMICs during the study period. For sewer or septic sanitation, access was 46•3% (95% UI 46•1-46•5) in 2017, compared with 28•7% (28•5-29•0) in 2000. Although some units improved access to the safest drinking water or sanitation facilities since 2000, a large absolute number of people continued to not have access in several units with high access to such facilities (>80%) in 2017. More than 253 000 people did not have access to sewer or septic sanitation facilities in the city of Harare, Zimbabwe, despite 88•6% (95% UI 87•2-89•7) access overall. Many units were able to transition from the least safe facilities in 2000 to safe facilities by 2017; for units in which populations primarily practised open defecation in 2000, 686 (95% UI 664-711) of the 1830 (1797-1863) units transitioned to the use of improved sanitation. Geographical disparities in access to improved water across units decreased in 76•1% (95% UI 71•6-80•7) of countries from 2000 to 2017, and in 53•9% (50•6-59•6) of countries for access to improved sanitation, but remained evident subnationally in most countries in 2017. Interpretation Our estimates, combined with geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden, identify where efforts to increase access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities are most needed. By highlighting areas with successful approaches or in need of targeted interventions, our estimates can enable precision public health to effectively progress towards universal access to safe water and sanitation. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The Lancet Global Health, 2020

Background Lymphatic filariasis is a neglected tropical disease that can cause permanent disabili... more Background Lymphatic filariasis is a neglected tropical disease that can cause permanent disability through disruption of the lymphatic system. This disease is caused by parasitic filarial worms that are transmitted by mosquitos. Mass drug administration (MDA) of antihelmintics is recommended by WHO to eliminate lymphatic filariasis as a public health problem. This study aims to produce the first geospatial estimates of the global prevalence of lymphatic filariasis infection over time, to quantify progress towards elimination, and to identify geographical variation in distribution of infection. Methods A global dataset of georeferenced surveyed locations was used to model annual 2000-18 lymphatic filariasis prevalence for 73 current or previously endemic countries. We applied Bayesian model-based geostatistics and time series methods to generate spatially continuous estimates of global all-age 2000-18 prevalence of lymphatic filariasis infection mapped at a resolution of 5 km² and aggregated to estimate total number of individuals infected. Findings We used 14 927 datapoints to fit the geospatial models. An estimated 199 million total individuals (95% uncertainty interval 174-234 million) worldwide were infected with lymphatic filariasis in 2000, with totals for WHO regions ranging from 3•1 million (1•6-5•7 million) in the region of the Americas to 107 million (91-134 million) in the SouthEast Asia region. By 2018, an estimated 51 million individuals (43-63 million) were infected. Broad declines in prevalence are observed globally, but focal areas in Africa and southeast Asia remain less likely to have attained infection prevalence thresholds proposed to achieve local elimination. Interpretation Although the prevalence of lymphatic filariasis infection has declined since 2000, MDA is still necessary across large populations in Africa and Asia. Our mapped estimates can be used to identify areas where the probability of meeting infection thresholds is low, and when coupled with large uncertainty in the predictions, indicate additional data collection or intervention might be warranted before MDA programmes cease. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Nature, 2020

The safe, highly effective measles vaccine has been recommended globally since 1974, yet in 2017 ... more The safe, highly effective measles vaccine has been recommended globally since 1974, yet in 2017 there were more than 17 million cases of measles and 83,400 deaths in children under 5 years old, and more than 99% of both occurred in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs)1–4. Globally comparable, annual, local estimates of routine first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) coverage are critical for understanding geographically precise immunity patterns, progress towards the targets of the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP), and high-risk areas amid disruptions to vaccination programmes caused by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)5–8. Here we generated annual estimates of routine childhood MCV1 coverage at 5 × 5-km2pixel and second administrative levels from 2000 to 2019 in 101 LMICs, quantified geographical inequality and assessed vaccination status by geographical remoteness. After widespread MCV1 gains from 2000 to 2010, coverage regressed in more than half of the districts bet...

The Lancet, 2020

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a rules-based... more The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a rules-based synthesis of the available evidence on levels and trends in health outcomes, a diverse set of risk factors, and health system responses. GBD 2019 covered 204 countries and territories, as well as first administrative level disaggregations for 22 countries, from 1990 to 2019. Because GBD is highly standardised and comprehensive, spanning both fatal and non-fatal outcomes, and uses a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of hierarchical disease and injury causes, the study provides a powerful basis for detailed and broad insights on global health trends and emerging challenges. GBD 2019 incorporates data from 281 586 sources and provides more than 3•5 billion estimates of health outcome and health system measures of interest for global, national, and subnational policy dialogue. All GBD estimates are publicly available and adhere to the Guidelines on Accurate and Transparent Health Estimate Reporting. From this vast amount of information, five key insights that are important for health, social, and economic development strategies have been distilled. These insights are subject to the many limitations outlined in each of the component GBD capstone papers.

The Lancet, 2020

Background Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding... more Background Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10-14 and 50-54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed agespecific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings The global TFR decreased from 2•72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2•66-2•79) in 2000 to 2•31 (2•17-2•46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134•5 million (131•5-137•8) in 2000 to a peak of 139•6 million (133•0-146•9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135•3 million (127•2-144•1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2•1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27•1% (95% UI 26•4-27•8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67•2 years (95% UI 66•8-67•6) in 2000 to 73•5 years (72•8-74•3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50•7 million (49•5-51•9) in 2000 to 56•5 million (53•7-59•2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9•6 million (9•1-10•3) in 2000 to 5•0 million (4•3-6•0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25•7%, from 6•2 billion (6•0-6•3) in 2000 to 7•7 billion (7•5-8•0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline.

The Lancet Global Health, Dec 1, 2022

Background Health-care needs change throughout the life course. It is thus crucial to assess whet... more Background Health-care needs change throughout the life course. It is thus crucial to assess whether health systems provide access to quality health care for all ages. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019), we measured the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index overall and for select age groups in 204 locations from 1990 to 2019. Methods We distinguished the overall HAQ Index (ages 0-74 years) from scores for select age groups: the young (ages 0-14 years), working (ages 15-64 years), and post-working (ages 65-74 years) groups. For GBD 2019, HAQ Index construction methods were updated to use the arithmetic mean of scaled mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs) and risk-standardised death rates (RSDRs) for 32 causes of death that should not occur in the presence of timely, quality health care. Across locations and years, MIRs and RSDRs were scaled from 0 (worst) to 100 (best) separately, putting the HAQ Index on a different relative scale for each age group. We estimated absolute convergence for each group on the basis of whether the HAQ Index grew faster in absolute terms between 1990 and 2019 in countries with lower 1990 HAQ Index scores than countries with higher 1990 HAQ Index scores and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. SDI is a summary metric of overall development. Findings Between 1990 and 2019, the HAQ Index increased overall (by 19•6 points, 95% uncertainty interval 17•9-21•3), as well as among the young (22•5, 19•9-24•7), working (17•2, 15•2-19•1), and post-working (15•1, 13•2-17•0) age groups. Large differences in HAQ Index scores were present across SDI levels in 2019, with the overall index ranging from 30•7 (28•6-33•0) on average in low-SDI countries to 83•4 (82•4-84•3) on average in high-SDI countries. Similarly large ranges between low-SDI and high-SDI countries, respectively, were estimated in the HAQ Index for the young (40•4-89•0), working (33•8-82•8), and post-working (30•4-79•1) groups. Absolute convergence in HAQ Index was estimated in the young group only. In contrast, divergence was estimated among the working and post-working groups, driven by slow progress in low-SDI countries. Interpretation Although major gaps remain across levels of social and economic development, convergence in the young group is an encouraging sign of reduced disparities in health-care access and quality. However, divergence in the working and post-working groups indicates that health-care access and quality is lagging at lower levels of social and economic development. To meet the needs of ageing populations, health systems need to improve health-care access and quality for working-age adults and older populations while continuing to realise gains among the young. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Background Low back pain is highly prevalent and the main cause of years lived with disability (Y... more Background Low back pain is highly prevalent and the main cause of years lived with disability (YLDs). We present the most up-to-date global, regional, and national data on prevalence and YLDs for low back pain from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021. Methods Population-based studies from 1980 to 2019 identified in a systematic review, international surveys, US medical claims data, and dataset contributions by collaborators were used to estimate the prevalence and YLDs for low back pain from 1990 to 2020, for 204 countries and territories. Low back pain was defined as pain between the 12th ribs and the gluteal folds that lasted a day or more; input data using alternative definitions were adjusted in a network meta-regression analysis. Nested Bayesian meta-regression models were used to estimate prevalence and YLDs by age, sex, year, and location. Prevalence was projected to 2050 by running a regression on prevalence rates using Socio-demographic Index as a predictor, then multiplying them by projected population estimates. Findings In 2020, low back pain affected 619 million (95% uncertainty interval 554-694) people globally, with a projection of 843 million (759-933) prevalent cases by 2050. In 2020, the global age-standardised rate of YLDs was 832 per 100 000 (578-1070). Between 1990 and 2020, age-standardised rates of prevalence and YLDs decreased by 10•4% (10•9-10•0) and 10•5% (11•1-10•0), respectively. A total of 38•8% (28•7-47•0) of YLDs were attributed to occupational factors, smoking, and high BMI. Interpretation Low back pain remains the leading cause of YLDs globally, and in 2020, there were more than half a billion prevalent cases of low back pain worldwide. While age-standardised rates have decreased modestly over the past three decades, it is projected that globally in 2050, more than 800 million people will have low back pain. Challenges persist in obtaining primary country-level data on low back pain, and there is an urgent need for more high-quality, primary, country-level data on both prevalence and severity distributions to improve accuracy and monitor change.

Disability and Rehabilitation

Disability and Rehabilitation

Physiotherapy Theory and Practice

BACKGROUND The modified STarT Back Screening Tool (mSBST) can be used to classify individuals wit... more BACKGROUND The modified STarT Back Screening Tool (mSBST) can be used to classify individuals with neck pain (NP) into low, medium, and high risk for chronicity. However, the mSBST-Thai version (mSBST-TH) for NP does not exist. OBJECTIVES The aims of this study were to adapt the SBST-TH into the mSBST-TH and evaluate its psychometric properties. METHODS The adaptation process committee included one researcher, one musculoskeletal physical therapist, and one Thai linguistic expert. A total of 261 participants (aged 20-70 years) with NP in Phitsanulok Province were invited to complete the mSBST-TH, visual analogue scale, neck disability index, fear-avoidance beliefs questionnaire (FABQ), pain catastrophizing scale, EuroQol five-dimensions five-levels questionnaire (EQ5D-5L), and EQ5D-5L-visual analogue scale (EQ5D-5L-VAS). Fifty participants completed the mSBST-TH twice, with an interval of 48 hours to perform test-retest reliability. RESULTS The Cronbach's alpha coefficient of the mSBST-TH total score was 0.73. Factor analysis revealed two components, psychosocial and physical. The intraclass correlation coefficient of test-retest reliability was found to be 0.81 for the total score. Moderate correlations were found between the mSBST-TH and all questionnaires, except for the FABQ-work. The discriminative validity was excellent between the mSBST-TH total score and the EQ5D-5L-VAS. The standard error of measurement and minimal detectable change of the mSBST-TH total score were 0.56 and 1.56, respectively. No significant floor and ceiling effects were found. CONCLUSION The mSBST-TH was successfully adapted with no ambiguity reported. Furthermore, the mSBST-TH has presented acceptable psychometric evaluation.

The Lancet Global Health

Background Health-care needs change throughout the life course. It is thus crucial to assess whet... more Background Health-care needs change throughout the life course. It is thus crucial to assess whether health systems provide access to quality health care for all ages. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019), we measured the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index overall and for select age groups in 204 locations from 1990 to 2019. Methods We distinguished the overall HAQ Index (ages 0-74 years) from scores for select age groups: the young (ages 0-14 years), working (ages 15-64 years), and post-working (ages 65-74 years) groups. For GBD 2019, HAQ Index construction methods were updated to use the arithmetic mean of scaled mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs) and risk-standardised death rates (RSDRs) for 32 causes of death that should not occur in the presence of timely, quality health care. Across locations and years, MIRs and RSDRs were scaled from 0 (worst) to 100 (best) separately, putting the HAQ Index on a different relative scale for each age group. We estimated absolute convergence for each group on the basis of whether the HAQ Index grew faster in absolute terms between 1990 and 2019 in countries with lower 1990 HAQ Index scores than countries with higher 1990 HAQ Index scores and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. SDI is a summary metric of overall development. Findings Between 1990 and 2019, the HAQ Index increased overall (by 19•6 points, 95% uncertainty interval 17•9-21•3), as well as among the young (22•5, 19•9-24•7), working (17•2, 15•2-19•1), and post-working (15•1, 13•2-17•0) age groups. Large differences in HAQ Index scores were present across SDI levels in 2019, with the overall index ranging from 30•7 (28•6-33•0) on average in low-SDI countries to 83•4 (82•4-84•3) on average in high-SDI countries. Similarly large ranges between low-SDI and high-SDI countries, respectively, were estimated in the HAQ Index for the young (40•4-89•0), working (33•8-82•8), and post-working (30•4-79•1) groups. Absolute convergence in HAQ Index was estimated in the young group only. In contrast, divergence was estimated among the working and post-working groups, driven by slow progress in low-SDI countries. Interpretation Although major gaps remain across levels of social and economic development, convergence in the young group is an encouraging sign of reduced disparities in health-care access and quality. However, divergence in the working and post-working groups indicates that health-care access and quality is lagging at lower levels of social and economic development. To meet the needs of ageing populations, health systems need to improve health-care access and quality for working-age adults and older populations while continuing to realise gains among the young. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The Lancet Public Health

Background Globally, transport and unintentional injuries persist as leading preventable causes o... more Background Globally, transport and unintentional injuries persist as leading preventable causes of mortality and morbidity for adolescents. We sought to report comprehensive trends in injury-related mortality and morbidity for adolescents aged 10-24 years during the past three decades. Methods Using the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2019 Study, we analysed mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributed to transport and unintentional injuries for adolescents in 204 countries. Burden is reported in absolute numbers and age-standardised rates per 100 000 population by sex, age group (10-14, 15-19, and 20-24 years), and sociodemographic index (SDI) with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We report percentage changes in deaths and DALYs between 1990 and 2019. Findings In 2019, 369 061 deaths (of which 214 337 [58%] were transport related) and 31•1 million DALYs (of which 16•2 million [52%] were transport related) among adolescents aged 10-24 years were caused by transport and unintentional injuries combined. If compared with other causes, transport and unintentional injuries combined accounted for 25% of deaths and 14% of DALYs in 2019, and showed little improvement from 1990 when such injuries accounted for 26% of adolescent deaths and 17% of adolescent DALYs. Throughout adolescence, transport and unintentional injury fatality rates increased by age group. The unintentional injury burden was higher among males than females for all injury types, except for injuries related to fire, heat, and hot substances, or to adverse effects of medical treatment. From 1990 to 2019, global mortality rates declined by 34•4% (from 17•5 to 11•5 per 100 000) for transport injuries, and by 47•7% (from 15•9 to 8•3 per 100 000) for unintentional injuries. However, in low-SDI nations the absolute number of deaths increased (by 80•5% to 42 774 for transport injuries and by 39•4% to 31 961 for unintentional injuries). In the high-SDI quintile in 2010-19, the rate per 100 000 of transport injury DALYs was reduced by 16•7%, from 838 in 2010 to 699 in 2019. This was a substantially slower pace of reduction compared with the 48•5% reduction between 1990 and 2010, from 1626 per 100 000 in 1990 to 838 per 100 000 in 2010. Between 2010 and 2019, the rate of unintentional injury DALYs per 100 000 also remained largely unchanged in high-SDI countries (555 in 2010 vs 554 in 2019; 0•2% reduction). The number and rate of adolescent deaths and DALYs owing to environmental heat and cold exposure increased for the high-SDI quintile during 2010-19. Interpretation As other causes of mortality are addressed, inadequate progress in reducing transport and unintentional injury mortality as a proportion of adolescent deaths becomes apparent. The relative shift in the burden of injury from high-SDI countries to low and low-middle-SDI countries necessitates focused action, including global donor, government, and industry investment in injury prevention. The persisting burden of DALYs related to transport and unintentional injuries indicates a need to prioritise innovative measures for the primary prevention of adolescent injury. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

BMJ Open

IntroductionNeck pain (NP) is a common musculoskeletal complaint and is increasing in prevalence.... more IntroductionNeck pain (NP) is a common musculoskeletal complaint and is increasing in prevalence. Current clinical practice guidelines and systematic reviews recommended conservative, pharmacological and invasive interventions for individuals with NP. However, optimal management specifically for those who are middle-aged or older adults (≥45 years) is not available; and important considering our ageing population.Methods and analysisA systematic review with network meta-analysis (NMA) will be conducted following the Cochrane guidelines. Eligibility criteria include randomised controlled/clinical trials evaluating any of acute (<3 months) or chronic (≥3 months) non-specific NP, whiplash associated disorders, cervical radiculopathy and cervicogenic headache. Any interventions and outcome measures detailed within The International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health domains will be included. Two independent reviewers will search key databases (AMED, CENTRAL, CINAHL,...

Reiner RC Jr, Hay SI. Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mor... more Reiner RC Jr, Hay SI. Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2020; 395: 1779–801—In this Article, the author byline has been amended to Local Burden of Disease Diarrhoea Collaborators. This correction has been made to the online version as of June 4, 2020, and the printed version is correct

Background: Sacroiliac joint dysfunction (SJD) is an important cause of low back pain (LBP), comm... more Background: Sacroiliac joint dysfunction (SJD) is an important cause of low back pain (LBP), commonly overlooked. Although the association of leg length discrepancy (LLD) and LBP was established, no study has examined the association between LLD and asymptomatic SJD (ASJD). Objective: To examine the correlation between LLD and ASJD in young males. Methods: One hundred subjects wearing a comfortable and thin uniform were randomized into three rooms (consisting of leg length measurement, palpation and special test rooms). One high valid and reliable assessor was allocated in each room. All subjects were assessed three times (one time a room and then randomly assigned by a project manager to other rooms until reaching three times a test) to reduce potential biases and errors. Logistic regression was used to examine the association between the degree of LLD and ASJD. The association between ASJD and affected leg was examined by Chi-square test. Results: The mean age and LLD of subjects were 20.3  1.4 years and 6.3  3.8 mm., respectively. The number of structural and functional LLD were found (50 subjects each type). The ASJD was found in 95 (46 structural, 49 functional) subjects. There was no significant correlation between the degree of LLD and ASJD (odds ratio = 0.99 (95% confident interval (0.78, 1.26), P = 0.94). However, the affected leg (short leg) associated with ASJD (P < 0.001). Conclusions: Young males with mild LLD can have ASJD. The study suggests that the shorter leg in people with mild LLD could have higher chance for ASJD. Shoe lifts may be an optional procedure to prevent symptomatic SJD, especially structural LLD.

Whiplash-associated disorder (WAD) causes substantial social and economic burden, with ≥70% patie... more Whiplash-associated disorder (WAD) causes substantial social and economic burden, with ≥70% patients classified as WADII. Effective management in the acute stage is required to prevent development of chronicity for approximately 60% patients. A novel Active Behavioural Physiotherapy Intervention (ABPI) addressing both physical and psychological components of WAD was developed and evaluated as a complex intervention for acute WADII through a sequential multiphase project. Each phase was conducted using rigorous, precise and transparent methodologies according to pre-defined protocols. A systematic review and meta-analysis found that the combination of active physiotherapy and behavioural interventions may be a useful strategy. A modified Delphi study (international research and UK clinical whiplash experts) identified the underlying principles, and physiotherapy and behavioural treatment components of the ABPI. As no underpinning psychological theory was identified, the ABPI was furt...

Scandinavian Journal of Pain, 2020

Objectives Fear-avoidance beliefs questionnaire (FABQ) is a self-report, valid and reliable quest... more Objectives Fear-avoidance beliefs questionnaire (FABQ) is a self-report, valid and reliable questionnaire to quantify fear and avoidance beliefs related to physical activity and work. Furthermore, it can be used to predict prolong disability in patients with non-specific neck pain. Although it was originally developed to manage patients with low back pain, it has also been studied in individuals with neck pain. This questionnaire was translated into several languages following reports of potential benefits in patients with neck pain. Recently, Thai neck clinical trials, international multi-centre trials and data sharing are growing throughout the world but no validated Thai version of the FABQ is available for clinical and research uses. Our objectives were to translate and cross-culturally adapt the FABQ into Thai version and evaluate its psychometric properties in Thai patients with non-specific neck pain. Methods Cross-cultural translation and adaptation of the FABQ were conducte...

Nature Medicine, 2021

Anemia is a globally widespread condition in women and is associated with reduced economic produc... more Anemia is a globally widespread condition in women and is associated with reduced economic productivity and increased mortality worldwide. Here we map annual 2000–2018 geospatial estimates of anemia prevalence in women of reproductive age (15–49 years) across 82 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), stratify anemia by severity and aggregate results to policy-relevant administrative and national levels. Additionally, we provide subnational disparity analyses to provide a comprehensive overview of anemia prevalence inequalities within these countries and predict progress toward the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target (WHO GNT) to reduce anemia by half by 2030. Our results demonstrate widespread moderate improvements in overall anemia prevalence but identify only three LMICs with a high probability of achieving the WHO GNT by 2030 at a national scale, and no LMIC is expected to achieve the target in all their subnational administrative units. Our maps show where lar...

The Lancet, 2020

Background In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable disease... more Background In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990-2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0-9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10-24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10-24 years were also in the top ten in the 25-49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50-74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and development investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The Lancet Global Health, 2020

Background Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential huma... more Background Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the Sustainable Development Goals as crucial for preventing disease and improving human wellbeing. Comprehensive, high-resolution estimates are important to inform progress towards achieving this goal. We aimed to produce highresolution geospatial estimates of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities. Methods We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from 600 sources across more than 88 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) to estimate access to drinking water and sanitation facilities on continuous continent-wide surfaces from 2000 to 2017, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. We estimated mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subcategories of facilities for drinking water (piped water on or off premises, other improved facilities, unimproved, and surface water) and sanitation facilities (septic or sewer sanitation, other improved, unimproved, and open defecation) with use of ordinal regression. We also estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths in children younger than 5 years attributed to unsafe facilities and estimated deaths that were averted by increased access to safe facilities in 2017, and analysed geographical inequality in access within LMICs. Findings Across LMICs, access to both piped water and improved water overall increased between 2000 and 2017, with progress varying spatially. For piped water, the safest water facility type, access increased from 40•0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39•4-40•7) to 50•3% (50•0-50•5), but was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, where access to piped water was mostly concentrated in urban centres. Access to both sewer or septic sanitation and improved sanitation overall also increased across all LMICs during the study period. For sewer or septic sanitation, access was 46•3% (95% UI 46•1-46•5) in 2017, compared with 28•7% (28•5-29•0) in 2000. Although some units improved access to the safest drinking water or sanitation facilities since 2000, a large absolute number of people continued to not have access in several units with high access to such facilities (>80%) in 2017. More than 253 000 people did not have access to sewer or septic sanitation facilities in the city of Harare, Zimbabwe, despite 88•6% (95% UI 87•2-89•7) access overall. Many units were able to transition from the least safe facilities in 2000 to safe facilities by 2017; for units in which populations primarily practised open defecation in 2000, 686 (95% UI 664-711) of the 1830 (1797-1863) units transitioned to the use of improved sanitation. Geographical disparities in access to improved water across units decreased in 76•1% (95% UI 71•6-80•7) of countries from 2000 to 2017, and in 53•9% (50•6-59•6) of countries for access to improved sanitation, but remained evident subnationally in most countries in 2017. Interpretation Our estimates, combined with geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden, identify where efforts to increase access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities are most needed. By highlighting areas with successful approaches or in need of targeted interventions, our estimates can enable precision public health to effectively progress towards universal access to safe water and sanitation. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The Lancet Global Health, 2020

Background Lymphatic filariasis is a neglected tropical disease that can cause permanent disabili... more Background Lymphatic filariasis is a neglected tropical disease that can cause permanent disability through disruption of the lymphatic system. This disease is caused by parasitic filarial worms that are transmitted by mosquitos. Mass drug administration (MDA) of antihelmintics is recommended by WHO to eliminate lymphatic filariasis as a public health problem. This study aims to produce the first geospatial estimates of the global prevalence of lymphatic filariasis infection over time, to quantify progress towards elimination, and to identify geographical variation in distribution of infection. Methods A global dataset of georeferenced surveyed locations was used to model annual 2000-18 lymphatic filariasis prevalence for 73 current or previously endemic countries. We applied Bayesian model-based geostatistics and time series methods to generate spatially continuous estimates of global all-age 2000-18 prevalence of lymphatic filariasis infection mapped at a resolution of 5 km² and aggregated to estimate total number of individuals infected. Findings We used 14 927 datapoints to fit the geospatial models. An estimated 199 million total individuals (95% uncertainty interval 174-234 million) worldwide were infected with lymphatic filariasis in 2000, with totals for WHO regions ranging from 3•1 million (1•6-5•7 million) in the region of the Americas to 107 million (91-134 million) in the SouthEast Asia region. By 2018, an estimated 51 million individuals (43-63 million) were infected. Broad declines in prevalence are observed globally, but focal areas in Africa and southeast Asia remain less likely to have attained infection prevalence thresholds proposed to achieve local elimination. Interpretation Although the prevalence of lymphatic filariasis infection has declined since 2000, MDA is still necessary across large populations in Africa and Asia. Our mapped estimates can be used to identify areas where the probability of meeting infection thresholds is low, and when coupled with large uncertainty in the predictions, indicate additional data collection or intervention might be warranted before MDA programmes cease. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Nature, 2020

The safe, highly effective measles vaccine has been recommended globally since 1974, yet in 2017 ... more The safe, highly effective measles vaccine has been recommended globally since 1974, yet in 2017 there were more than 17 million cases of measles and 83,400 deaths in children under 5 years old, and more than 99% of both occurred in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs)1–4. Globally comparable, annual, local estimates of routine first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) coverage are critical for understanding geographically precise immunity patterns, progress towards the targets of the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP), and high-risk areas amid disruptions to vaccination programmes caused by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)5–8. Here we generated annual estimates of routine childhood MCV1 coverage at 5 × 5-km2pixel and second administrative levels from 2000 to 2019 in 101 LMICs, quantified geographical inequality and assessed vaccination status by geographical remoteness. After widespread MCV1 gains from 2000 to 2010, coverage regressed in more than half of the districts bet...

The Lancet, 2020

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a rules-based... more The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a rules-based synthesis of the available evidence on levels and trends in health outcomes, a diverse set of risk factors, and health system responses. GBD 2019 covered 204 countries and territories, as well as first administrative level disaggregations for 22 countries, from 1990 to 2019. Because GBD is highly standardised and comprehensive, spanning both fatal and non-fatal outcomes, and uses a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of hierarchical disease and injury causes, the study provides a powerful basis for detailed and broad insights on global health trends and emerging challenges. GBD 2019 incorporates data from 281 586 sources and provides more than 3•5 billion estimates of health outcome and health system measures of interest for global, national, and subnational policy dialogue. All GBD estimates are publicly available and adhere to the Guidelines on Accurate and Transparent Health Estimate Reporting. From this vast amount of information, five key insights that are important for health, social, and economic development strategies have been distilled. These insights are subject to the many limitations outlined in each of the component GBD capstone papers.

The Lancet, 2020

Background Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding... more Background Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10-14 and 50-54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed agespecific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings The global TFR decreased from 2•72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2•66-2•79) in 2000 to 2•31 (2•17-2•46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134•5 million (131•5-137•8) in 2000 to a peak of 139•6 million (133•0-146•9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135•3 million (127•2-144•1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2•1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27•1% (95% UI 26•4-27•8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67•2 years (95% UI 66•8-67•6) in 2000 to 73•5 years (72•8-74•3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50•7 million (49•5-51•9) in 2000 to 56•5 million (53•7-59•2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9•6 million (9•1-10•3) in 2000 to 5•0 million (4•3-6•0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25•7%, from 6•2 billion (6•0-6•3) in 2000 to 7•7 billion (7•5-8•0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline.