Thomas Marsh - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by Thomas Marsh
In order to estimate the effects of changing SPS barriers to trade on Washington State apples in ... more In order to estimate the effects of changing SPS barriers to trade on Washington State apples in China, India, Mexico and Taiwan, we started by characterizing the full export model. The SPS costs elasticities obtained from the export supply equations were used in the revenue simulation.
Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 2015
We calculate the welfare effects of the WSU wheat breeding programs for producers and consumers i... more We calculate the welfare effects of the WSU wheat breeding programs for producers and consumers in Washington State, Oregon, Idaho, the United States and the rest of the world. We develop a partial equilibrium multi-region, multi-product, multi-variety trade model for wheat that provides consumer, producer and total surplus for each wheat class and region. Our results provide evidence suggesting that WSU wheat breeding programs have increased welfare in Washington State, in the United States and the rest of the world.
The purpose of this paper was to derive an applicable method to test the hypothesis of rent shift... more The purpose of this paper was to derive an applicable method to test the hypothesis of rent shifting behavior in the international market for differentiated products. The two stage empirical procedure is outlined and the empirical analysis for the first stage is presented. We find statistical support for the presence of market power in the international malting barley market. The next stage of the research will be to test the second stage null hypothesis that the prepayment structures in Canada and Australia do not affect the product market outcome and thus would not support the rent shifting argument.
Nonlinear Dynamics Psychology and Life Sciences, Apr 1, 2012
This paper applies the techniques of phase space reconstruction and recurrence quantification ana... more This paper applies the techniques of phase space reconstruction and recurrence quantification analysis to investigate U.S. livestock cycles in relation to recent literature on the business cycle. Results are presented for pork and cattle cycles, providing empirical evidence that the cycles themselves have slowly diminished. By comparing the evolution of production processes for the two livestock cycles we argue that the major cause for this moderation is largely endogenous. The analysis suggests that previous theoretical models relying solely on exogenous shocks to create cyclical patterns do not fully capture changes in system dynamics. Specifically, the biological constraint in livestock dynamics has become less significant while technology and information are relatively more significant. Concurrently, vertical integration of the supply chain may have improved inventory management, all resulting in a small, less deterministic, cyclical effect.
American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Feb 1, 2000
This paper introduces a new specification to the economic pest management literature designed to ... more This paper introduces a new specification to the economic pest management literature designed to optimally manage vector-virus-plant interactions for a single crop. The viral, insect-vector, and plant-host stocks are treated as renewable resources and conjunctively controlled in a discrete-time control framework subject to crop quality standards established in marketing contracts. The result is a conceptual integrated pest management model providing optimal insecticide scheduling and dynamic decision-making thresholds in a novel economic pest management context. Model results are compared qualitatively with those from previous specifications. The model is applied empirically to control potato leafroll virus net necrosis in commercial potato production.
American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Feb 1, 2006
The lack of transparency in the pricing and operational activities of state trading enterprises (... more The lack of transparency in the pricing and operational activities of state trading enterprises (STEs) has caused WTO members to express concern that certain countries' STEs might circumvent Uruguay Round commitments on export subsidies, domestic support, or market access. The purpose of this study is to examine the market structure of the differentiated world malting barley market in which two STEs (the Canadian Wheat Board and Australian Barley Board) maintain jointly a very large share of the export market. In particular, this study focuses on the exclusive procuring and pricing policies used by both STEs to test if these intra-country mechanisms can generate leadership and shift rent from other exporting countries. A conceptual and empirical framework is also provided to test if STEs set their initial payments at optimal levels. Four key results are forthcoming from this research. First, we found strong support that the global malting barley market operates in a quantity setting oligopolistic structure. Second, both STEs and other exporting countries were in Cournot competition, and thus held the potential to exercise rentshifting behavior using their initial payment structures. Third, while some distortionary impacts from the STE prepayment systems were possible, we did not find evidence that it was a tool either STE employed. Empirical results from the precommitment stage show that both STEs did not set their initial payments low enough to maximize their profits. Fourth, It appears that the strong anecdotal and statistical evidence of product differentiation dampened significantly the desire/ability of malting barley STEs to pursue a rentshifting objective.
This paper develops an econometric model of natural gas supply at the state-level using New Mexic... more This paper develops an econometric model of natural gas supply at the state-level using New Mexico as a case study. The supply model is estimated using annual time series observations on production levels, delivered prices, proved reserves, existing wells, and extraction costs. The authors validate the model against historical data and then use it to consider the fiscal impacts on
Lia Nogueira Ph.D. Student School of Economic Sciences Washington State University PO Box 646210 ... more Lia Nogueira Ph.D. Student School of Economic Sciences Washington State University PO Box 646210 Pullman, WA, 99164-6210 E-mail: lia_nogueira@wsu.edu Telephone: (509) 338-5823 Fax: (509) 335-1173 ... Hayley H. Chouinard Assistant Professor School of Economic ...
Lia Nogueira Ph.D. Student School of Economic Sciences Washington State University PO Box 646210 ... more Lia Nogueira Ph.D. Student School of Economic Sciences Washington State University PO Box 646210 Pullman, WA, 99164-6210 E-mail: lia_nogueira@wsu.edu Telephone: (509) 338-5823 Fax: (509) 335-1173 ... Hayley H. Chouinard Assistant Professor School of Economic ...
The objective of this article is to analyze the domestic and international effects of a hypotheti... more The objective of this article is to analyze the domestic and international effects of a hypothetical foot and mouth disease outbreak in the Mexican cattle industry. A discrete time dynamic optimization model of the Mexican cattle sector is specified, and linked to domestic and international markets. Economic consequences of foot and mouth disease outbreaks are simulated over time and under different scenarios. Specific findings and general policy recommendations are provided. The study reports a range of outbreaks from localized to large scale and suggests that changes in economic surplus due to foot and mouth disease range from a positive net gain of 0.89to0.89 to 0.89to1.6 billion to a net loss of about $67 billion, depending on the specific scenario.
The lack of transparency in the pricing and operational activities of state trading enterprises (... more The lack of transparency in the pricing and operational activities of state trading enterprises (STEs) has caused members of the World Trade Organization to express concern that certain countries' STEs might circumvent Uruguay Round commitments on export subsidies, domestic support, or market access. The purpose of this study is to examine the market structure of the differentiated world malting barley market in which two STEs (the Canadian Wheat Board and the Australian Barley Board) maintain jointly a very large share of the export market. In particular, this study focuses on the exclusive procuring and pricing policies used by both STEs to test if these intra-country mechanisms can generate leadership and shift rent from other exporting countries. A conceptual and empirical framework is also provided to test if STEs set their initial payments at optimal levels. The study suggests that two STEs and other exporting countries were in Cournot competition. While some distortionary impacts from the STE prepayment systems are possible, it does not appear to be a tool that either STE employs.
In order to estimate the effects of changing SPS barriers to trade on Washington State apples in ... more In order to estimate the effects of changing SPS barriers to trade on Washington State apples in China, India, Mexico and Taiwan, we started by characterizing the full export model. The SPS costs elasticities obtained from the export supply equations were used in the revenue simulation.
Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 2015
We calculate the welfare effects of the WSU wheat breeding programs for producers and consumers i... more We calculate the welfare effects of the WSU wheat breeding programs for producers and consumers in Washington State, Oregon, Idaho, the United States and the rest of the world. We develop a partial equilibrium multi-region, multi-product, multi-variety trade model for wheat that provides consumer, producer and total surplus for each wheat class and region. Our results provide evidence suggesting that WSU wheat breeding programs have increased welfare in Washington State, in the United States and the rest of the world.
The purpose of this paper was to derive an applicable method to test the hypothesis of rent shift... more The purpose of this paper was to derive an applicable method to test the hypothesis of rent shifting behavior in the international market for differentiated products. The two stage empirical procedure is outlined and the empirical analysis for the first stage is presented. We find statistical support for the presence of market power in the international malting barley market. The next stage of the research will be to test the second stage null hypothesis that the prepayment structures in Canada and Australia do not affect the product market outcome and thus would not support the rent shifting argument.
Nonlinear Dynamics Psychology and Life Sciences, Apr 1, 2012
This paper applies the techniques of phase space reconstruction and recurrence quantification ana... more This paper applies the techniques of phase space reconstruction and recurrence quantification analysis to investigate U.S. livestock cycles in relation to recent literature on the business cycle. Results are presented for pork and cattle cycles, providing empirical evidence that the cycles themselves have slowly diminished. By comparing the evolution of production processes for the two livestock cycles we argue that the major cause for this moderation is largely endogenous. The analysis suggests that previous theoretical models relying solely on exogenous shocks to create cyclical patterns do not fully capture changes in system dynamics. Specifically, the biological constraint in livestock dynamics has become less significant while technology and information are relatively more significant. Concurrently, vertical integration of the supply chain may have improved inventory management, all resulting in a small, less deterministic, cyclical effect.
American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Feb 1, 2000
This paper introduces a new specification to the economic pest management literature designed to ... more This paper introduces a new specification to the economic pest management literature designed to optimally manage vector-virus-plant interactions for a single crop. The viral, insect-vector, and plant-host stocks are treated as renewable resources and conjunctively controlled in a discrete-time control framework subject to crop quality standards established in marketing contracts. The result is a conceptual integrated pest management model providing optimal insecticide scheduling and dynamic decision-making thresholds in a novel economic pest management context. Model results are compared qualitatively with those from previous specifications. The model is applied empirically to control potato leafroll virus net necrosis in commercial potato production.
American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Feb 1, 2006
The lack of transparency in the pricing and operational activities of state trading enterprises (... more The lack of transparency in the pricing and operational activities of state trading enterprises (STEs) has caused WTO members to express concern that certain countries' STEs might circumvent Uruguay Round commitments on export subsidies, domestic support, or market access. The purpose of this study is to examine the market structure of the differentiated world malting barley market in which two STEs (the Canadian Wheat Board and Australian Barley Board) maintain jointly a very large share of the export market. In particular, this study focuses on the exclusive procuring and pricing policies used by both STEs to test if these intra-country mechanisms can generate leadership and shift rent from other exporting countries. A conceptual and empirical framework is also provided to test if STEs set their initial payments at optimal levels. Four key results are forthcoming from this research. First, we found strong support that the global malting barley market operates in a quantity setting oligopolistic structure. Second, both STEs and other exporting countries were in Cournot competition, and thus held the potential to exercise rentshifting behavior using their initial payment structures. Third, while some distortionary impacts from the STE prepayment systems were possible, we did not find evidence that it was a tool either STE employed. Empirical results from the precommitment stage show that both STEs did not set their initial payments low enough to maximize their profits. Fourth, It appears that the strong anecdotal and statistical evidence of product differentiation dampened significantly the desire/ability of malting barley STEs to pursue a rentshifting objective.
This paper develops an econometric model of natural gas supply at the state-level using New Mexic... more This paper develops an econometric model of natural gas supply at the state-level using New Mexico as a case study. The supply model is estimated using annual time series observations on production levels, delivered prices, proved reserves, existing wells, and extraction costs. The authors validate the model against historical data and then use it to consider the fiscal impacts on
Lia Nogueira Ph.D. Student School of Economic Sciences Washington State University PO Box 646210 ... more Lia Nogueira Ph.D. Student School of Economic Sciences Washington State University PO Box 646210 Pullman, WA, 99164-6210 E-mail: lia_nogueira@wsu.edu Telephone: (509) 338-5823 Fax: (509) 335-1173 ... Hayley H. Chouinard Assistant Professor School of Economic ...
Lia Nogueira Ph.D. Student School of Economic Sciences Washington State University PO Box 646210 ... more Lia Nogueira Ph.D. Student School of Economic Sciences Washington State University PO Box 646210 Pullman, WA, 99164-6210 E-mail: lia_nogueira@wsu.edu Telephone: (509) 338-5823 Fax: (509) 335-1173 ... Hayley H. Chouinard Assistant Professor School of Economic ...
The objective of this article is to analyze the domestic and international effects of a hypotheti... more The objective of this article is to analyze the domestic and international effects of a hypothetical foot and mouth disease outbreak in the Mexican cattle industry. A discrete time dynamic optimization model of the Mexican cattle sector is specified, and linked to domestic and international markets. Economic consequences of foot and mouth disease outbreaks are simulated over time and under different scenarios. Specific findings and general policy recommendations are provided. The study reports a range of outbreaks from localized to large scale and suggests that changes in economic surplus due to foot and mouth disease range from a positive net gain of 0.89to0.89 to 0.89to1.6 billion to a net loss of about $67 billion, depending on the specific scenario.
The lack of transparency in the pricing and operational activities of state trading enterprises (... more The lack of transparency in the pricing and operational activities of state trading enterprises (STEs) has caused members of the World Trade Organization to express concern that certain countries' STEs might circumvent Uruguay Round commitments on export subsidies, domestic support, or market access. The purpose of this study is to examine the market structure of the differentiated world malting barley market in which two STEs (the Canadian Wheat Board and the Australian Barley Board) maintain jointly a very large share of the export market. In particular, this study focuses on the exclusive procuring and pricing policies used by both STEs to test if these intra-country mechanisms can generate leadership and shift rent from other exporting countries. A conceptual and empirical framework is also provided to test if STEs set their initial payments at optimal levels. The study suggests that two STEs and other exporting countries were in Cournot competition. While some distortionary impacts from the STE prepayment systems are possible, it does not appear to be a tool that either STE employs.