Tizta Degfie - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Tizta Degfie

Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 2020

Use of hospitals for essential primary care services Catherine Arsenault et al. Table 1. Type of ... more Use of hospitals for essential primary care services Catherine Arsenault et al. Table 1. Type of facility used for services offered in primary care settings in 56 low-and middle-income countries Country (year of survey) Income group a No. (%) of respondents using service Contraceptives Antenatal care Childhood diarrhoea

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2020

Background: Despite unrelenting global efforts to contain its spread, Coronavirus disease 2019 (C... more Background: Despite unrelenting global efforts to contain its spread, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is still causing unprecedented crises globally with no proven vaccine or cure so far. Ethiopia reported its first case on 13 March 2020 but has an accelerated increase in caseload and geographic distribution since recently. We now describe the epidemiology of COVID-19 in Oromia Regional State, the largest and most populous region in Ethiopia, during the early months of the outbreak.Methods: We analyzed data from the COVID-19 surveillance database of the Oromia Regional Health Bureau. We included RT-PCR confirmed COVID-19 cases diagnosed at healthcare facilities across the region during the period of 13 March to 13 September 2020.Findings: COVID-19 was confirmed in 8955 (5·5%) of 164206 individuals tested during the surveillance period. The test positivity rate increased from an average of 1·0% in the first three months to 6·3% in August and September. About 70% (6230) of the cases were male;the mean age was 30·0 years (SD=13·3) and 87·8% were between 10 and 49 years of age. Only 64 (0·7%) of the cases had symptoms at diagnosis. Among symptomatic cases, cough was the most common, reported in 48 (75·0%) and fever the least common, reported in 11 (17·2%) of cases. Moreover, only 6 (0·1%) cases presented with severe disease. Overall, 4346 (48·5%) have recovered from the virus and a total of 52 deaths were reported with a case fatality rate of 1·2%. However, the reported case fatality rate should be interpreted cautiously since in 44 (84·6%) of those reported as COVID-19 death, the virus was detected from a dead body.Interpretation: The COVID-19 infection rate in the Oromia Region of Ethiopia is surging six months after the onset of the pandemic in the country. So far, the proportion of symptomatic cases and severe diseases besides the fatality rate are lower than reports from most other developing and developed countries. This epidemiologic profile might have prevented the anticipated health system crisis to date, but it can hinder efforts to contain the outbreak.Funding: NoneDeclaration of Interests: The authors declare no competing interests.Ethics Approval Statement: The authors have obtained authorization to use the surveillance data from Oromia Regional Health Bureau Public Health Emergency Management and Health Research Directorate

The Lancet, 2018

Background Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sust... more Background Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of "leaving no one behind", it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the healthrelated SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2•5th percentile and 100 as the 97•5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59•4 (IQR 35•4-67•3), ranging from a low of 11•6 (95% uncertainty interval 9•6-14•0) to a high of 84•9 (83•1-86•7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030.

The Lancet, 2017

Background The scale-up of tobacco control, especially after the adoption of the Framework Conven... more Background The scale-up of tobacco control, especially after the adoption of the Framework Convention for Tobacco Control, is a major public health success story. Nonetheless, smoking remains a leading risk for early death and disability worldwide, and therefore continues to require sustained political commitment. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) offers a robust platform through which global, regional, and national progress toward achieving smoking-related targets can be assessed. Methods We synthesised 2818 data sources with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and produced estimates of daily smoking prevalence by sex, age group, and year for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We analysed 38 risk-outcome pairs to generate estimates of smoking-attributable mortality and disease burden, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). We then performed a cohort analysis of smoking prevalence by birth-year cohort to better understand temporal age patterns in smoking. We also did a decomposition analysis, in which we parsed out changes in all-cause smoking-attributable DALYs due to changes in population growth, population ageing, smoking prevalence, and risk-deleted DALY rates. Finally, we explored results by level of development using the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Worldwide, the age-standardised prevalence of daily smoking was 25•0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 24•2-25•7) for men and 5•4% (5•1-5•7) for women, representing 28•4% (25•8-31•1) and 34•4% (29•4-38•6) reductions, respectively, since 1990. A greater percentage of countries and territories achieved significant annualised rates of decline in smoking prevalence from 1990 to 2005 than in between 2005 and 2015; however, only four countries had significant annualised increases in smoking prevalence between 2005 and 2015 (Congo [Brazzaville] and Azerbaijan for men and Kuwait and Timor-Leste for women). In 2015, 11•5% of global deaths (6•4 million [95% UI 5•7-7•0 million]) were attributable to smoking worldwide, of which 52•2% took place in four countries (China, India, the USA, and Russia). Smoking was ranked among the five leading risk factors by DALYs in 109 countries and territories in 2015, rising from 88 geographies in 1990. In terms of birth cohorts, male smoking prevalence followed similar age patterns across levels of SDI, whereas much more heterogeneity was found in age patterns for female smokers by level of development. While smoking prevalence and risk-deleted DALY rates mostly decreased by sex and SDI quintile, population growth, population ageing, or a combination of both, drove rises in overall smokingattributable DALYs in low-SDI to middle-SDI geographies between 2005 and 2015. Interpretation The pace of progress in reducing smoking prevalence has been heterogeneous across geographies, development status, and sex, and as highlighted by more recent trends, maintaining past rates of decline should not be taken for granted, especially in women and in low-SDI to middle-SDI countries. Beyond the effect of the tobacco industry and societal mores, a crucial challenge facing tobacco control initiatives is that demographic forces are poised to heighten smoking's global toll, unless progress in preventing initiation and promoting cessation can be substantially accelerated. Greater success in tobacco control is possible but requires effective, comprehensive, and adequately implemented and enforced policies, which might in turn require global and national levels of political commitment beyond what has been achieved during the past 25 years. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Bloomberg Philanthropies.

Reproductive Health, 2014

Objectives: To assess spousal agreement levels regarding fertility preference and spousal communi... more Objectives: To assess spousal agreement levels regarding fertility preference and spousal communication, and to look at how it affects contraceptive use by couples. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study to collect quantitative data from March to May 2010 in Jimma zone, Ethiopia, using a multistage sampling design covering six districts. In each of the 811 couples included in the survey, both spouses were interviewed. Concordance between the husband and wife was assessed using different statistics and tests including concordance rates, ANOVA, Cohen's Κ and McNemar's test for paired samples. Multivariate analysis was computed to ascertain factors associated with contraceptive use. Results: Over half of the couples wanted more children and 27.8% of the spouses differed about the desire for more children. In terms of sex preference, there was a 48.7% discord in couples who wanted to have more children. At large, spousal concordance on the importance of family planning was positive. However, it was the husband's favourable attitude towards family planning that determined a couple's use of contraception. Overall, contraceptive prevalence was 42.9%. Among the groups with the highest level of contraceptive users, were couples where the husband does not want any more children. Spousal communication about the decision to use contraception showed a positive association with a couple's contraceptive prevalence. Conclusions: Family planning programs aiming to increase contraceptive uptake could benefit from findings on spousal agreement regarding fertility desire, because the characteristics of each spouse influences the couple's fertility level. Disparities between husband and wife about the desire for more children sustain the need for male consideration while analysing the unmet need for contraception. Moreover, men play a significant role in the decision making concerning contraceptive use. Accordingly, involving men in family planning programs could increase a couple's contraceptive practice in the future.

PLoS ONE, 2012

Background: Diabetes mellitus is a chronic disease that requires lifelong medical treatments and ... more Background: Diabetes mellitus is a chronic disease that requires lifelong medical treatments and a life style adjustment. To prevent serious morbidity and mortality, it requires dedication to demanding self-care behaviors in multiple domains. The objective of this study was to identify predictors of self care behaviors among patients with diabetes. Methods: From a total of 425 follow up diabetic patients, a quantitative cross sectional study was conducted among 222 of them from three different hospitals in Harar town, from March to April, 2011. The sample was taken using simple random sampling method. Data was collected using pretested questionnaire. Descriptive statistics multiple logistic regression analysis were also used to assess the predicators of self care behaviors among patients with diabetes. Result: Majority of the study respondents 134 (60.4%) were female and the mean age was 49.7 (SD614.7) years. More than half 147(66.2%) of them were medically diagnosed with type-2 diabetes. 208(93.7%) had general knowledge about diabetes and specific knowledge about diabetes self care 207(93.2%). Large proportion of them had moderate perceived susceptibility 174(78.4%) and severity 112(50.5%). More than half of the respondents 149(67.1%) had less perceived barrier while only 30 (13.5%) of them had high self efficacy to self care practices related to diabetes mellitus. Only 87(39.2%) followed the recommended self care practices on diabetes. Conclusions: Patients with less frequent information were less likely to take diabetes self care. Patients who were more educated, middle income, had high perceived severity of diabetes and less perceived barrier to self care were more likely to take diabetes self care. To increase the self care behavior, diabetes messages should focus on severity of diabetes and how to overcome barriers for self care by segmenting the audiences based on income and educational status with increasing the frequency and reach of message on diabetes.

BMC Public Health, 2011

Background Women in developing countries are either under collective decision making with their p... more Background Women in developing countries are either under collective decision making with their partners or completely rely on the male partner's decision on issues that affect their reproductive live. Identifying the major barriers of married women's decision making power on contraceptive use has significant relevance for planning contextually appropriate family planning interventions. The objective of this study was to determine current modern contraceptive practices and decision making power among married women in Tercha Town and surrounding rural areas of Dawro zone, Southern Ethiopia. Methods Community based comparative cross-sectional design with both quantitative and Qualitative study has been employed in March and April 2010. The respondents were 699 married women of child bearing age from urban and rural parts of Dawro zone. After conducting census, we took the sample using simple random sampling technique. Results Current modern contraceptive use among married wome...

BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth, 2012

Background Ethiopia is the second most populous country in Sub-Saharan Africa. Total Fertility Ra... more Background Ethiopia is the second most populous country in Sub-Saharan Africa. Total Fertility Rate of Ethiopia is 5.4 children per women, population growth rate is estimated to be 2.7% per year and contraceptive prevalence rate is only 15% while the unmet need for family planning is 34%. Overall awareness of Family Planning methods is high, at 87%. The prevalence of long acting and permanent contraceptive methods (LAPMs) in Tigray region was very low which accounts for 0.1% for implants and no users for intra-uterine contraceptive device (IUCD) and female sterilization. Moreover almost all modern contraceptive use in Ethiopia is dependent on short acting contraceptive methods. The objective of this study was to assess factors associated with utilization of long acting and permanent contraceptive methods (LAPM) among married women of reproductive age group in Mekelle town. Methods A cross sectional community based survey was conducted from March 9-20, 2011. Multistage sample techniq...

The Lancet, 2018

Background Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to... more Background Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10-54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10-14 years and 50-54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15-19 years and 45-49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49•4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46•4-52•0). The TFR decreased from 4•7 livebirths (4•5-4•9) to 2•4 livebirths (2•2-2•5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10-19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34-40) to 22 livebirths (19-24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83•8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197•2% (193•3-200•8) since 1950, from 2•6 billion (2•5-2•6) to 7•6 billion (7•4-7•9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2•0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1•1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2•5% in 1963 to 0•7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2•7%. The global average age increased from 26•6 years in 1950 to 32•1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15-64 years) increased from 59•9% to 65•3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1•0 livebirths (95% UI 0•9-1•2) in Cyprus to a high of 7•1 livebirths (6•8-7•4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0•08 livebirths (0•07-0•09) in South Korea to 2•4 livebirths (2•2-2•6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0•3 livebirths (0•3-0•4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3•1 livebirths (3•0-3•2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2•0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger.

The Lancet, 2018

Background Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmark... more Background Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017. Methods The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries-Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and causespecific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised. Findings At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73•4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72•5-74•1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 18•6% (17•9-19•6), and injuries 8•0% (7•7-8•2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22•7% (21•5-23•9), representing an additional 7•61 million (7•20-8•01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7•9% (7•0-8•8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 22•2% (20•0-24•0) and the death rate by 31•8% (30•1-33•3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2•3% (0•5-4•0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13•7% (12•2-15•1) to 57•9 deaths (55•9-59•2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000-289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000-363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118•0% (88•8-148•6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36•4% (32•2-40•6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33•6% (31•2-36•1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990-neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases-were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases.

Inquiry: A Journal of Medical Care Organization, Provision and Financing, 2021

With the promising efforts in increasing institutional delivery yet, maternal and child mortality... more With the promising efforts in increasing institutional delivery yet, maternal and child mortality is high in Ethiopia. One of the strategies used to minimize this problem was the introduction of Maternity Waiting Homes (MWH). MWHs are residential facilities for pregnant women near a qualified medical facility. The introduction of MWHs has improved institutional delivery in many countries. In Ethiopia however, the contribution of MWHs was rarely studied. To fill this gap, we have conducted a community-based unmatched case-control study from March 1 to April 20, 2016, in Southwestern Ethiopia. Mothers who delivered at a health facility within 1 year were considered as cases while mothers delivered at home were controls. We used simple random sampling to identify study participants from the pool of cases and controls who were identified by census. Data were analyzed using SPSS Version 20. Binary logistic regression was used to identify significant predictors. A total of 140 cases and 2...

PLoS ONE, 2020

Introduction The dynamics of intimate partner violence (IPV)—one of the world’s leading public he... more Introduction The dynamics of intimate partner violence (IPV)—one of the world’s leading public health problems—in urban Africa remain poorly understood. Yet, urban areas are key to the future of women’s health in Africa. Study objectives We explored survivor-, partner-, and household-level correlates of prevalence rates for types of IPV in urban SSA women. Method The study uses DHS data from 42,143 urban women aged 15–49 in 27 SSA countries. Associations at the bivariate level were examined using the Pearson Chi-square test. The modified Poisson regression test estimated the relative prevalence of IPV subtypes in the study population at the multivariate level. Results Approximately 36% of women in urban SSA experienced at least one form of IPV; 12.8% experienced two types; and 4.6% experienced all three types. SSA urban women who had only primary-level education, had 3 or more living children, were informally employed, were in polygynous unions, or who approved of wife-beating simil...

BMJ Open, 2021

Introduction Despite unrelenting efforts to contain its spread, COVID-19 is still causing unprece... more Introduction Despite unrelenting efforts to contain its spread, COVID-19 is still causing unprecedented global crises. Ethiopia reported its first case on 13 March 2020 but has an accelerated case load and geographical distribution recently. In this article, we described the epidemiology of COVID-19 in Oromia Region, the largest and most populous region in Ethiopia, during the early months of the outbreak. Methods We analysed data from the COVID-19 surveillance database of the Oromia Regional Health Bureau. We included all reverse transcription-PCR-confirmed cases reported from the region between 13 March and 13 September 2020. Results COVID-19 was confirmed in 8955 (5.5%) of 164 206 tested individuals. The test positivity rate increased from an average of 1.0% in the first 3 months to 6.3% in August and September. About 70% (6230) of the cases were men; the mean age was 30.0 years (SD=13.3), and 90.5% were <50 years of age. Only 64 (0.7%) of the cases had symptoms at diagnosis. ...

Introduction : Worldwide, the number of maternal deaths in 2010 amounted to 287,000; almost 90% o... more Introduction : Worldwide, the number of maternal deaths in 2010 amounted to 287,000; almost 90% occurred in developing countries where rural areas typically share the highest proportion of it. In Ethiopia, the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) was 676/100,000 live births in 2011, contraceptive prevalence was 28.6% and the unmet need for family planning 25%. This is echoed in the country’s population growth which does not match the country´s development, as illustrated by the poor living condition among women. Since poor access to and low use of contraceptives exist, it is essential for further family planning interventions to ascertain determinant factors of effectiveness in order to obtain a more efficient use of family planning services. In that perspective, some studies have recommended focusing on couple level analysis in fertility research because it gives a better predictive power of relationships between family planning and couple´s fertility desire. The decision to use contrace...

The Lancet

Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Dev... more Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of "leaving no one behind", it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also im...

The Lancet

Background Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to... more Background Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10-54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10-14 years and 50-54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15-19 years and 45-49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49•4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46•4-52•0). The TFR decreased from 4•7 livebirths (4•5-4•9) to 2•4 livebirths (2•2-2•5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10-19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34-40) to 22 livebirths (19-24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83•8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197•2% (193•3-200•8) since 1950, from 2•6 billion (2•5-2•6) to 7•6 billion (7•4-7•9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2•0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1•1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2•5% in 1963 to 0•7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2•7%. The global average age increased from 26•6 years in 1950 to 32•1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15-64 years) increased from 59•9% to 65•3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1•0 livebirths (95% UI 0•9-1•2) in Cyprus to a high of 7•1 livebirths (6•8-7•4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0•08 livebirths (0•07-0•09) in South Korea to 2•4 livebirths (2•2-2•6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0•3 livebirths (0•3-0•4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3•1 livebirths (3•0-3•2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2•0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger.

Bulletin of the World Health Organization

Abstract Objective To estimate the use of hospitals for four essential primary care services offe... more Abstract Objective To estimate the use of hospitals for four essential primary care services offered in health centres in low- and middle-income countries and to explore differences in quality between hospitals and health centres. Methods We extracted data from all demographic and health surveys conducted since 2010 on the type of facilities used for obtaining contraceptives, routine antenatal care and care for minor childhood diarrhoea and cough or fever. Using mixed-effects logistic regression models we assessed associations between hospital use and individual and country-level covariates. We assessed competence of care based on the receipt of essential clinical actions during visits. We also analysed three indicators of user experience from countries with available service provision assessment survey data. Findings On average across 56 countries, public hospitals were used as the sole source of care by 16.9% of 126 012 women who obtained contraceptives, 23.1% of 418 236 women who received routine antenatal care, 19.9% of 47 677 children with diarrhoea and 18.5% of 82 082 children with fever or cough. Hospital use was more common in richer countries with higher expenditures on health per capita and among urban residents and wealthier, better-educated women. Antenatal care quality was higher in hospitals in 44 countries. In a subset of eight countries, people using hospitals tended to spend more, report more problems and be somewhat less satisfied with the care received. Conclusion As countries work towards achieving ambitious health goals, they will need to assess care quality and user preferences to deliver effective primary care services that people want to use.

The Lancet, 2017

Background The scale-up of tobacco control, especially after the adoption of the Framework Conven... more Background The scale-up of tobacco control, especially after the adoption of the Framework Convention for Tobacco Control, is a major public health success story. Nonetheless, smoking remains a leading risk for early death and disability worldwide, and therefore continues to require sustained political commitment. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) offers a robust platform through which global, regional, and national progress toward achieving smoking-related targets can be assessed. Methods We synthesised 2818 data sources with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and produced estimates of daily smoking prevalence by sex, age group, and year for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We analysed 38 risk-outcome pairs to generate estimates of smoking-attributable mortality and disease burden, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). We then performed a cohort analysis of smoking prevalence by birth-year cohort to better understand temporal age patterns in smoking. We also did a decomposition analysis, in which we parsed out changes in all-cause smoking-attributable DALYs due to changes in population growth, population ageing, smoking prevalence, and risk-deleted DALY rates. Finally, we explored results by level of development using the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Worldwide, the age-standardised prevalence of daily smoking was 25•0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 24•2-25•7) for men and 5•4% (5•1-5•7) for women, representing 28•4% (25•8-31•1) and 34•4% (29•4-38•6) reductions, respectively, since 1990. A greater percentage of countries and territories achieved significant annualised rates of decline in smoking prevalence from 1990 to 2005 than in between 2005 and 2015; however, only four countries had significant annualised increases in smoking prevalence between 2005 and 2015 (Congo [Brazzaville] and Azerbaijan for men and Kuwait and Timor-Leste for women). In 2015, 11•5% of global deaths (6•4 million [95% UI 5•7-7•0 million]) were attributable to smoking worldwide, of which 52•2% took place in four countries (China, India, the USA, and Russia). Smoking was ranked among the five leading risk factors by DALYs in 109 countries and territories in 2015, rising from 88 geographies in 1990. In terms of birth cohorts, male smoking prevalence followed similar age patterns across levels of SDI, whereas much more heterogeneity was found in age patterns for female smokers by level of development. While smoking prevalence and risk-deleted DALY rates mostly decreased by sex and SDI quintile, population growth, population ageing, or a combination of both, drove rises in overall smokingattributable DALYs in low-SDI to middle-SDI geographies between 2005 and 2015. Interpretation The pace of progress in reducing smoking prevalence has been heterogeneous across geographies, development status, and sex, and as highlighted by more recent trends, maintaining past rates of decline should not be taken for granted, especially in women and in low-SDI to middle-SDI countries. Beyond the effect of the tobacco industry and societal mores, a crucial challenge facing tobacco control initiatives is that demographic forces are poised to heighten smoking's global toll, unless progress in preventing initiation and promoting cessation can be substantially accelerated. Greater success in tobacco control is possible but requires effective, comprehensive, and adequately implemented and enforced policies, which might in turn require global and national levels of political commitment beyond what has been achieved during the past 25 years. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Bloomberg Philanthropies.

Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 2020

Use of hospitals for essential primary care services Catherine Arsenault et al. Table 1. Type of ... more Use of hospitals for essential primary care services Catherine Arsenault et al. Table 1. Type of facility used for services offered in primary care settings in 56 low-and middle-income countries Country (year of survey) Income group a No. (%) of respondents using service Contraceptives Antenatal care Childhood diarrhoea

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2020

Background: Despite unrelenting global efforts to contain its spread, Coronavirus disease 2019 (C... more Background: Despite unrelenting global efforts to contain its spread, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is still causing unprecedented crises globally with no proven vaccine or cure so far. Ethiopia reported its first case on 13 March 2020 but has an accelerated increase in caseload and geographic distribution since recently. We now describe the epidemiology of COVID-19 in Oromia Regional State, the largest and most populous region in Ethiopia, during the early months of the outbreak.Methods: We analyzed data from the COVID-19 surveillance database of the Oromia Regional Health Bureau. We included RT-PCR confirmed COVID-19 cases diagnosed at healthcare facilities across the region during the period of 13 March to 13 September 2020.Findings: COVID-19 was confirmed in 8955 (5·5%) of 164206 individuals tested during the surveillance period. The test positivity rate increased from an average of 1·0% in the first three months to 6·3% in August and September. About 70% (6230) of the cases were male;the mean age was 30·0 years (SD=13·3) and 87·8% were between 10 and 49 years of age. Only 64 (0·7%) of the cases had symptoms at diagnosis. Among symptomatic cases, cough was the most common, reported in 48 (75·0%) and fever the least common, reported in 11 (17·2%) of cases. Moreover, only 6 (0·1%) cases presented with severe disease. Overall, 4346 (48·5%) have recovered from the virus and a total of 52 deaths were reported with a case fatality rate of 1·2%. However, the reported case fatality rate should be interpreted cautiously since in 44 (84·6%) of those reported as COVID-19 death, the virus was detected from a dead body.Interpretation: The COVID-19 infection rate in the Oromia Region of Ethiopia is surging six months after the onset of the pandemic in the country. So far, the proportion of symptomatic cases and severe diseases besides the fatality rate are lower than reports from most other developing and developed countries. This epidemiologic profile might have prevented the anticipated health system crisis to date, but it can hinder efforts to contain the outbreak.Funding: NoneDeclaration of Interests: The authors declare no competing interests.Ethics Approval Statement: The authors have obtained authorization to use the surveillance data from Oromia Regional Health Bureau Public Health Emergency Management and Health Research Directorate

The Lancet, 2018

Background Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sust... more Background Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of "leaving no one behind", it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the healthrelated SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2•5th percentile and 100 as the 97•5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59•4 (IQR 35•4-67•3), ranging from a low of 11•6 (95% uncertainty interval 9•6-14•0) to a high of 84•9 (83•1-86•7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030.

The Lancet, 2017

Background The scale-up of tobacco control, especially after the adoption of the Framework Conven... more Background The scale-up of tobacco control, especially after the adoption of the Framework Convention for Tobacco Control, is a major public health success story. Nonetheless, smoking remains a leading risk for early death and disability worldwide, and therefore continues to require sustained political commitment. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) offers a robust platform through which global, regional, and national progress toward achieving smoking-related targets can be assessed. Methods We synthesised 2818 data sources with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and produced estimates of daily smoking prevalence by sex, age group, and year for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We analysed 38 risk-outcome pairs to generate estimates of smoking-attributable mortality and disease burden, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). We then performed a cohort analysis of smoking prevalence by birth-year cohort to better understand temporal age patterns in smoking. We also did a decomposition analysis, in which we parsed out changes in all-cause smoking-attributable DALYs due to changes in population growth, population ageing, smoking prevalence, and risk-deleted DALY rates. Finally, we explored results by level of development using the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Worldwide, the age-standardised prevalence of daily smoking was 25•0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 24•2-25•7) for men and 5•4% (5•1-5•7) for women, representing 28•4% (25•8-31•1) and 34•4% (29•4-38•6) reductions, respectively, since 1990. A greater percentage of countries and territories achieved significant annualised rates of decline in smoking prevalence from 1990 to 2005 than in between 2005 and 2015; however, only four countries had significant annualised increases in smoking prevalence between 2005 and 2015 (Congo [Brazzaville] and Azerbaijan for men and Kuwait and Timor-Leste for women). In 2015, 11•5% of global deaths (6•4 million [95% UI 5•7-7•0 million]) were attributable to smoking worldwide, of which 52•2% took place in four countries (China, India, the USA, and Russia). Smoking was ranked among the five leading risk factors by DALYs in 109 countries and territories in 2015, rising from 88 geographies in 1990. In terms of birth cohorts, male smoking prevalence followed similar age patterns across levels of SDI, whereas much more heterogeneity was found in age patterns for female smokers by level of development. While smoking prevalence and risk-deleted DALY rates mostly decreased by sex and SDI quintile, population growth, population ageing, or a combination of both, drove rises in overall smokingattributable DALYs in low-SDI to middle-SDI geographies between 2005 and 2015. Interpretation The pace of progress in reducing smoking prevalence has been heterogeneous across geographies, development status, and sex, and as highlighted by more recent trends, maintaining past rates of decline should not be taken for granted, especially in women and in low-SDI to middle-SDI countries. Beyond the effect of the tobacco industry and societal mores, a crucial challenge facing tobacco control initiatives is that demographic forces are poised to heighten smoking's global toll, unless progress in preventing initiation and promoting cessation can be substantially accelerated. Greater success in tobacco control is possible but requires effective, comprehensive, and adequately implemented and enforced policies, which might in turn require global and national levels of political commitment beyond what has been achieved during the past 25 years. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Bloomberg Philanthropies.

Reproductive Health, 2014

Objectives: To assess spousal agreement levels regarding fertility preference and spousal communi... more Objectives: To assess spousal agreement levels regarding fertility preference and spousal communication, and to look at how it affects contraceptive use by couples. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study to collect quantitative data from March to May 2010 in Jimma zone, Ethiopia, using a multistage sampling design covering six districts. In each of the 811 couples included in the survey, both spouses were interviewed. Concordance between the husband and wife was assessed using different statistics and tests including concordance rates, ANOVA, Cohen's Κ and McNemar's test for paired samples. Multivariate analysis was computed to ascertain factors associated with contraceptive use. Results: Over half of the couples wanted more children and 27.8% of the spouses differed about the desire for more children. In terms of sex preference, there was a 48.7% discord in couples who wanted to have more children. At large, spousal concordance on the importance of family planning was positive. However, it was the husband's favourable attitude towards family planning that determined a couple's use of contraception. Overall, contraceptive prevalence was 42.9%. Among the groups with the highest level of contraceptive users, were couples where the husband does not want any more children. Spousal communication about the decision to use contraception showed a positive association with a couple's contraceptive prevalence. Conclusions: Family planning programs aiming to increase contraceptive uptake could benefit from findings on spousal agreement regarding fertility desire, because the characteristics of each spouse influences the couple's fertility level. Disparities between husband and wife about the desire for more children sustain the need for male consideration while analysing the unmet need for contraception. Moreover, men play a significant role in the decision making concerning contraceptive use. Accordingly, involving men in family planning programs could increase a couple's contraceptive practice in the future.

PLoS ONE, 2012

Background: Diabetes mellitus is a chronic disease that requires lifelong medical treatments and ... more Background: Diabetes mellitus is a chronic disease that requires lifelong medical treatments and a life style adjustment. To prevent serious morbidity and mortality, it requires dedication to demanding self-care behaviors in multiple domains. The objective of this study was to identify predictors of self care behaviors among patients with diabetes. Methods: From a total of 425 follow up diabetic patients, a quantitative cross sectional study was conducted among 222 of them from three different hospitals in Harar town, from March to April, 2011. The sample was taken using simple random sampling method. Data was collected using pretested questionnaire. Descriptive statistics multiple logistic regression analysis were also used to assess the predicators of self care behaviors among patients with diabetes. Result: Majority of the study respondents 134 (60.4%) were female and the mean age was 49.7 (SD614.7) years. More than half 147(66.2%) of them were medically diagnosed with type-2 diabetes. 208(93.7%) had general knowledge about diabetes and specific knowledge about diabetes self care 207(93.2%). Large proportion of them had moderate perceived susceptibility 174(78.4%) and severity 112(50.5%). More than half of the respondents 149(67.1%) had less perceived barrier while only 30 (13.5%) of them had high self efficacy to self care practices related to diabetes mellitus. Only 87(39.2%) followed the recommended self care practices on diabetes. Conclusions: Patients with less frequent information were less likely to take diabetes self care. Patients who were more educated, middle income, had high perceived severity of diabetes and less perceived barrier to self care were more likely to take diabetes self care. To increase the self care behavior, diabetes messages should focus on severity of diabetes and how to overcome barriers for self care by segmenting the audiences based on income and educational status with increasing the frequency and reach of message on diabetes.

BMC Public Health, 2011

Background Women in developing countries are either under collective decision making with their p... more Background Women in developing countries are either under collective decision making with their partners or completely rely on the male partner's decision on issues that affect their reproductive live. Identifying the major barriers of married women's decision making power on contraceptive use has significant relevance for planning contextually appropriate family planning interventions. The objective of this study was to determine current modern contraceptive practices and decision making power among married women in Tercha Town and surrounding rural areas of Dawro zone, Southern Ethiopia. Methods Community based comparative cross-sectional design with both quantitative and Qualitative study has been employed in March and April 2010. The respondents were 699 married women of child bearing age from urban and rural parts of Dawro zone. After conducting census, we took the sample using simple random sampling technique. Results Current modern contraceptive use among married wome...

BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth, 2012

Background Ethiopia is the second most populous country in Sub-Saharan Africa. Total Fertility Ra... more Background Ethiopia is the second most populous country in Sub-Saharan Africa. Total Fertility Rate of Ethiopia is 5.4 children per women, population growth rate is estimated to be 2.7% per year and contraceptive prevalence rate is only 15% while the unmet need for family planning is 34%. Overall awareness of Family Planning methods is high, at 87%. The prevalence of long acting and permanent contraceptive methods (LAPMs) in Tigray region was very low which accounts for 0.1% for implants and no users for intra-uterine contraceptive device (IUCD) and female sterilization. Moreover almost all modern contraceptive use in Ethiopia is dependent on short acting contraceptive methods. The objective of this study was to assess factors associated with utilization of long acting and permanent contraceptive methods (LAPM) among married women of reproductive age group in Mekelle town. Methods A cross sectional community based survey was conducted from March 9-20, 2011. Multistage sample techniq...

The Lancet, 2018

Background Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to... more Background Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10-54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10-14 years and 50-54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15-19 years and 45-49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49•4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46•4-52•0). The TFR decreased from 4•7 livebirths (4•5-4•9) to 2•4 livebirths (2•2-2•5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10-19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34-40) to 22 livebirths (19-24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83•8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197•2% (193•3-200•8) since 1950, from 2•6 billion (2•5-2•6) to 7•6 billion (7•4-7•9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2•0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1•1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2•5% in 1963 to 0•7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2•7%. The global average age increased from 26•6 years in 1950 to 32•1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15-64 years) increased from 59•9% to 65•3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1•0 livebirths (95% UI 0•9-1•2) in Cyprus to a high of 7•1 livebirths (6•8-7•4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0•08 livebirths (0•07-0•09) in South Korea to 2•4 livebirths (2•2-2•6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0•3 livebirths (0•3-0•4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3•1 livebirths (3•0-3•2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2•0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger.

The Lancet, 2018

Background Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmark... more Background Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017. Methods The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries-Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and causespecific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised. Findings At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73•4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72•5-74•1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 18•6% (17•9-19•6), and injuries 8•0% (7•7-8•2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22•7% (21•5-23•9), representing an additional 7•61 million (7•20-8•01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7•9% (7•0-8•8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 22•2% (20•0-24•0) and the death rate by 31•8% (30•1-33•3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2•3% (0•5-4•0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13•7% (12•2-15•1) to 57•9 deaths (55•9-59•2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000-289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000-363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118•0% (88•8-148•6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36•4% (32•2-40•6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33•6% (31•2-36•1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990-neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases-were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases.

Inquiry: A Journal of Medical Care Organization, Provision and Financing, 2021

With the promising efforts in increasing institutional delivery yet, maternal and child mortality... more With the promising efforts in increasing institutional delivery yet, maternal and child mortality is high in Ethiopia. One of the strategies used to minimize this problem was the introduction of Maternity Waiting Homes (MWH). MWHs are residential facilities for pregnant women near a qualified medical facility. The introduction of MWHs has improved institutional delivery in many countries. In Ethiopia however, the contribution of MWHs was rarely studied. To fill this gap, we have conducted a community-based unmatched case-control study from March 1 to April 20, 2016, in Southwestern Ethiopia. Mothers who delivered at a health facility within 1 year were considered as cases while mothers delivered at home were controls. We used simple random sampling to identify study participants from the pool of cases and controls who were identified by census. Data were analyzed using SPSS Version 20. Binary logistic regression was used to identify significant predictors. A total of 140 cases and 2...

PLoS ONE, 2020

Introduction The dynamics of intimate partner violence (IPV)—one of the world’s leading public he... more Introduction The dynamics of intimate partner violence (IPV)—one of the world’s leading public health problems—in urban Africa remain poorly understood. Yet, urban areas are key to the future of women’s health in Africa. Study objectives We explored survivor-, partner-, and household-level correlates of prevalence rates for types of IPV in urban SSA women. Method The study uses DHS data from 42,143 urban women aged 15–49 in 27 SSA countries. Associations at the bivariate level were examined using the Pearson Chi-square test. The modified Poisson regression test estimated the relative prevalence of IPV subtypes in the study population at the multivariate level. Results Approximately 36% of women in urban SSA experienced at least one form of IPV; 12.8% experienced two types; and 4.6% experienced all three types. SSA urban women who had only primary-level education, had 3 or more living children, were informally employed, were in polygynous unions, or who approved of wife-beating simil...

BMJ Open, 2021

Introduction Despite unrelenting efforts to contain its spread, COVID-19 is still causing unprece... more Introduction Despite unrelenting efforts to contain its spread, COVID-19 is still causing unprecedented global crises. Ethiopia reported its first case on 13 March 2020 but has an accelerated case load and geographical distribution recently. In this article, we described the epidemiology of COVID-19 in Oromia Region, the largest and most populous region in Ethiopia, during the early months of the outbreak. Methods We analysed data from the COVID-19 surveillance database of the Oromia Regional Health Bureau. We included all reverse transcription-PCR-confirmed cases reported from the region between 13 March and 13 September 2020. Results COVID-19 was confirmed in 8955 (5.5%) of 164 206 tested individuals. The test positivity rate increased from an average of 1.0% in the first 3 months to 6.3% in August and September. About 70% (6230) of the cases were men; the mean age was 30.0 years (SD=13.3), and 90.5% were <50 years of age. Only 64 (0.7%) of the cases had symptoms at diagnosis. ...

Introduction : Worldwide, the number of maternal deaths in 2010 amounted to 287,000; almost 90% o... more Introduction : Worldwide, the number of maternal deaths in 2010 amounted to 287,000; almost 90% occurred in developing countries where rural areas typically share the highest proportion of it. In Ethiopia, the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) was 676/100,000 live births in 2011, contraceptive prevalence was 28.6% and the unmet need for family planning 25%. This is echoed in the country’s population growth which does not match the country´s development, as illustrated by the poor living condition among women. Since poor access to and low use of contraceptives exist, it is essential for further family planning interventions to ascertain determinant factors of effectiveness in order to obtain a more efficient use of family planning services. In that perspective, some studies have recommended focusing on couple level analysis in fertility research because it gives a better predictive power of relationships between family planning and couple´s fertility desire. The decision to use contrace...

The Lancet

Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Dev... more Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of "leaving no one behind", it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also im...

The Lancet

Background Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to... more Background Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10-54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10-14 years and 50-54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15-19 years and 45-49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49•4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46•4-52•0). The TFR decreased from 4•7 livebirths (4•5-4•9) to 2•4 livebirths (2•2-2•5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10-19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34-40) to 22 livebirths (19-24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83•8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197•2% (193•3-200•8) since 1950, from 2•6 billion (2•5-2•6) to 7•6 billion (7•4-7•9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2•0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1•1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2•5% in 1963 to 0•7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2•7%. The global average age increased from 26•6 years in 1950 to 32•1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15-64 years) increased from 59•9% to 65•3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1•0 livebirths (95% UI 0•9-1•2) in Cyprus to a high of 7•1 livebirths (6•8-7•4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0•08 livebirths (0•07-0•09) in South Korea to 2•4 livebirths (2•2-2•6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0•3 livebirths (0•3-0•4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3•1 livebirths (3•0-3•2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2•0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger.

Bulletin of the World Health Organization

Abstract Objective To estimate the use of hospitals for four essential primary care services offe... more Abstract Objective To estimate the use of hospitals for four essential primary care services offered in health centres in low- and middle-income countries and to explore differences in quality between hospitals and health centres. Methods We extracted data from all demographic and health surveys conducted since 2010 on the type of facilities used for obtaining contraceptives, routine antenatal care and care for minor childhood diarrhoea and cough or fever. Using mixed-effects logistic regression models we assessed associations between hospital use and individual and country-level covariates. We assessed competence of care based on the receipt of essential clinical actions during visits. We also analysed three indicators of user experience from countries with available service provision assessment survey data. Findings On average across 56 countries, public hospitals were used as the sole source of care by 16.9% of 126 012 women who obtained contraceptives, 23.1% of 418 236 women who received routine antenatal care, 19.9% of 47 677 children with diarrhoea and 18.5% of 82 082 children with fever or cough. Hospital use was more common in richer countries with higher expenditures on health per capita and among urban residents and wealthier, better-educated women. Antenatal care quality was higher in hospitals in 44 countries. In a subset of eight countries, people using hospitals tended to spend more, report more problems and be somewhat less satisfied with the care received. Conclusion As countries work towards achieving ambitious health goals, they will need to assess care quality and user preferences to deliver effective primary care services that people want to use.

The Lancet, 2017

Background The scale-up of tobacco control, especially after the adoption of the Framework Conven... more Background The scale-up of tobacco control, especially after the adoption of the Framework Convention for Tobacco Control, is a major public health success story. Nonetheless, smoking remains a leading risk for early death and disability worldwide, and therefore continues to require sustained political commitment. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) offers a robust platform through which global, regional, and national progress toward achieving smoking-related targets can be assessed. Methods We synthesised 2818 data sources with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and produced estimates of daily smoking prevalence by sex, age group, and year for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We analysed 38 risk-outcome pairs to generate estimates of smoking-attributable mortality and disease burden, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). We then performed a cohort analysis of smoking prevalence by birth-year cohort to better understand temporal age patterns in smoking. We also did a decomposition analysis, in which we parsed out changes in all-cause smoking-attributable DALYs due to changes in population growth, population ageing, smoking prevalence, and risk-deleted DALY rates. Finally, we explored results by level of development using the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Worldwide, the age-standardised prevalence of daily smoking was 25•0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 24•2-25•7) for men and 5•4% (5•1-5•7) for women, representing 28•4% (25•8-31•1) and 34•4% (29•4-38•6) reductions, respectively, since 1990. A greater percentage of countries and territories achieved significant annualised rates of decline in smoking prevalence from 1990 to 2005 than in between 2005 and 2015; however, only four countries had significant annualised increases in smoking prevalence between 2005 and 2015 (Congo [Brazzaville] and Azerbaijan for men and Kuwait and Timor-Leste for women). In 2015, 11•5% of global deaths (6•4 million [95% UI 5•7-7•0 million]) were attributable to smoking worldwide, of which 52•2% took place in four countries (China, India, the USA, and Russia). Smoking was ranked among the five leading risk factors by DALYs in 109 countries and territories in 2015, rising from 88 geographies in 1990. In terms of birth cohorts, male smoking prevalence followed similar age patterns across levels of SDI, whereas much more heterogeneity was found in age patterns for female smokers by level of development. While smoking prevalence and risk-deleted DALY rates mostly decreased by sex and SDI quintile, population growth, population ageing, or a combination of both, drove rises in overall smokingattributable DALYs in low-SDI to middle-SDI geographies between 2005 and 2015. Interpretation The pace of progress in reducing smoking prevalence has been heterogeneous across geographies, development status, and sex, and as highlighted by more recent trends, maintaining past rates of decline should not be taken for granted, especially in women and in low-SDI to middle-SDI countries. Beyond the effect of the tobacco industry and societal mores, a crucial challenge facing tobacco control initiatives is that demographic forces are poised to heighten smoking's global toll, unless progress in preventing initiation and promoting cessation can be substantially accelerated. Greater success in tobacco control is possible but requires effective, comprehensive, and adequately implemented and enforced policies, which might in turn require global and national levels of political commitment beyond what has been achieved during the past 25 years. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Bloomberg Philanthropies.