Toni Lyn Morelli - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Toni Lyn Morelli

The purpose of this Northeast Climate Science Center-led (NE CSC) cooperative report is to provid... more The purpose of this Northeast Climate Science Center-led (NE CSC) cooperative report is to provide a synthesis of what is known and what is uncertain about climate change and its impacts across the NE CSC region, with a particular focus on the responses and vulnerabilities of Regional Species of Greatest Conservation Need (RSGCN) and the habitats they depend on. Another goal is to describe a range of climate change adaptation approaches, processes, tools, and potential partnerships that are available to State natural resource managers across the Northeast and Midwest regions of the United States. Through illustrative case studies submitted by the NE CSC and partners, the report discusses climate change adaptation efforts being explored and implemented across local and large-landscape scales.

Biological Invasions

Effective natural resource management and policy is contingent on information generated by resear... more Effective natural resource management and policy is contingent on information generated by research. Conversely, the applicability of research depends on whether it is responsive to the needs and constraints of resource managers and policy makers. However, many scientific fields including invasion ecology suffer from a disconnect between research and practice. Despite strong socio-political imperatives, evidenced by extensive funding dedicated to addressing invasive species, the pairing of invasion ecology with stakeholder needs to support effective management and policy is lacking. As a potential solution, we propose translational invasion ecology (TIE). As an extension of translational ecology, as a framework to increase collaboration among scientists, practitioners, and policy makers to reduce negative impacts of invasive species. As an extension of translational ecology, TIE is an approach that embodies an intentional and inclusive process in which researchers, stakeholders, and...

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment

A nthropogenic climate change is predicted to impose an assortment of dramatic effects on society... more A nthropogenic climate change is predicted to impose an assortment of dramatic effects on society and ecosystems across the globe, prompting resource managers to look for place-based solutions to minimize associated biodiversity losses. The identification, protection, and management of climate-change refugia-generally defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change (see WebPanel 1 for a glossary of specialist terms)-has increasingly been proposed as a focus of climate adaptation actions to support the persistence of species, communities, and ecosystems, as well as sociocultural values (Keppel et al. 2015; Morelli et al. 2016). Since the refugia concept was first explored in a modern climate-change adaptation context (Ashcroft 2010; Dobrowski 2011; Keppel et al. 2012), technological and theoretical advances, as well as better recognition of practical applications (Anderson et al. 2014; Suggitt et al. 2018), have created more nuanced ways to identify and conserve these areas (Keppel et al. 2015; Morelli et al. 2016). Here, we explain not only how conservation strategies that focus on climate-change refugia increasingly incorporate ecological complexity, including issues of scale and the spectrum of climate-change vulnerability, but also how to consider objectives for climate-change refugia beyond their original static definition. The papers included in this Special Issue discuss how this burgeoning area of study is focused on improving conservation in the face of climate change. We take an inclusive view of climate-change refugia that recognizes the simultaneous importance of conservation in place ("in situ") and beyond ("ex situ") (Figure 1). Conservation of in situ refugia can help ensure some continuation of ecosystem services in the near term and preserve unique biodiversity (Keppel et al. 2015). Anticipatory planning for ex situ refugia recognizes, for example, the value of locations outside of a species' current native range that act as "stepping-stones", aiding long-term efforts to help species track their climatic niche by means of

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment

A healthy tension exists in climate-change research between developing concepts and insights with... more A healthy tension exists in climate-change research between developing concepts and insights with broad implications and providing information that can be applied to specific locations by conservation practitioners (eg Cook et al. 2013; Meadow et al. 2015). Models and broader theory regarding the spatial patterns of biodiversity can convey important insights into how those patterns might affect species' survival in a changing environment (Thuiller et al. 2008; Franklin et al. 2017). However, conservation practitioners urgently need additional direction on what they can do on the ground to stem, or at least slow, climate-change-related biodiversity loss. While broader implications are typically analyzed at large scales, meeting the needs of conservation practitioners requires data at finer scales, with clearly delineated boundaries to confirm and refine understanding of processes implied by larger-scale analyses (Hannah et al. 2014; Keppel and Wardell-Johnson 2015). Climate-change refugia are areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change that enable the persistence of valued physical, ecological, and sociocultural resources (Keppel et al. 2015; Morelli et al. 2016). An initial step to managing refugia for climate adaptation is identifying where they exist. This initial identification represents a spatial hypothesis constructed through various methods. Examples include comparing the current distribution of suitable habitat for a particular species with the modeled distribution of that habitat, given climate-change projections (Maher et al. 2017; Sweet et al. 2019), and mapping topographic features that buffer species from regional climate extremes (McCullough et al. 2016; Schwantes et al. 2018). However, these methods merely establish a spatial hypothesis of where climate buffering may occur, which is not an end in itself but rather a starting point toward ensuring that natural lands managers can identify, protect, and manage climate-change refugia. Morelli et al. (2016) illustrated the sequence of necessary tasks through the development of

Environmental Evidence

Background: Among the most widely anticipated climate-related impacts to biodiversity are geograp... more Background: Among the most widely anticipated climate-related impacts to biodiversity are geographic range shifts, whereby species shift their spatial distribution in response to changing climate conditions. In particular, a series of commonly articulated hypotheses have emerged: species are expected to shift their distributions to higher latitudes, greater elevations, and deeper depths in response to climate change, reflecting an underlying hypothesis that species will move to cooler locations to track spatial changes in the temperature of their current range. Yet, many species are not demonstrating range shifts consistent with these hypotheses. Resolving this discrepancy and providing effective explanations for the observed variability in species' range shifts is urgently needed to help support a range of natural resource management decisions. Here, we propose a protocol to review the body of evidence for commonly-held climate change range shift hypotheses at the species level focusing on observed latitudinal, longitudinal, elevational, and depth shifts in response to temperature and precipitation changes. We aim to answer the question: what is the impact of anthropogenic climate change (specifically changes in temperature and precipitation) on species ranges? Methods: In this review protocol, we propose to conduct a systematic search of literature from internet databases and search engines in English. Articles will be screened in a two-stage process (title/abstract and full text) to evaluate whether they meet a list of eligibility criteria (e.g., presents species-level data, compares > 1 time period). Initial data coding and extraction will be completed by four reviewers and checked by a secondary reviewer from among our co-authors. We will perform a formal meta-analysis to document estimated effect size using the subset of available range-shift data expressed in distance per time (e.g., km/decade). We will also use multinomial logistic regression models to assess the probability that species are shifting in a direction that supports our hypotheses (i.e. towards higher latitudes, greater elevations, and deeper depths). We will account for study methodology as a potential source of variation.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment

Ecography

Recent technological and methodological advances have revolutionized wildlife monitoring. Althoug... more Recent technological and methodological advances have revolutionized wildlife monitoring. Although most biodiversity monitoring initiatives are geared towards focal species of conservation concern, researchers are increasingly studying entire communities, specifically the spatiotemporal drivers of community size and structure and interactions among species. This has resulted in the emergence of multi-species occupancy models (MSOMs) as a promising and efficient approach for the study of community ecology. Given the potential of MSOMs for conservation and management action, it is critical to know whether study design and model assumptions are consistent with inference objectives. This is especially true for studies that are designed for a focal species but can give insights about a community. Here, we review the recent literature on MSOMs, identify areas of improvement in the multi-species study workflow, and provide a reference model for best practices for focal species and community monitoring study design. We reviewed 92 studies published between 2009 and early 2018, spanning 27 countries and a variety of taxa. There is a consistent under-reporting of details that are central to determining the adequacy of designs for generating data that can be used to make inferences about community-level patterns of occupancy, including the spatial and temporal extent, types of detectors used, covariates considered, and choice of field methods and statistical tools. This reporting bias could consequently result in skewed estimates, affecting conservation actions and management plans. On the other hand, comprehensive reporting is likely to help researchers working on MSOMs assess the robustness of inferences, in addition to making strides in terms of reproducibility and reusability of data. We use our literature review to inform a roadmap with best practices for MSOM studies, from simulations to design considerations and reporting, for the collection of new data as well as those involving existing datasets.

Journal of Animal Ecology

Abstract A central theme of range‐limit theory (RLT) posits that abiotic factors form high‐latitu... more Abstract A central theme of range‐limit theory (RLT) posits that abiotic factors form high‐latitude/altitude limits, whereas biotic interactions create lower limits. This hypothesis, often credited to Charles Darwin, is a pattern widely assumed to occur in nature. However, abiotic factors can impose constraints on both limits and there is scant evidence to support the latter prediction. Deviations from these predictions may arise from correlations between abiotic factors and biotic interactions, as a lack of data to evaluate the hypothesis, or be an artifact of scale. Combining two tenets of ecology—niche theory and predator–prey theory—provides an opportunity to understand how biotic interactions influence range limits and how this varies by trophic level. We propose an expansion of RLT, interactive RLT (iRLT), to understand the causes of range limits and predict range shifts. Incorporating the main predictions of Darwin's hypothesis, iRLT hypothesizes that abiotic and biotic factors can interact to impact both limits of a species’ range. We summarize current thinking on range limits and perform an integrative review to evaluate support for iRLT and trophic differences along range margins, surveying the mammal community along the boreal‐temperate and forest‐tundra ecotones of North America. Our review suggests that range‐limit dynamics are more nuanced and interactive than classically predicted by RLT. Many (57 of 70) studies indicate that biotic factors can ameliorate harsh climatic conditions along high‐latitude/altitude limits. Conversely, abiotic factors can also mediate biotic interactions along low‐latitude/altitude limits (44 of 68 studies). Both scenarios facilitate range expansion, contraction or stability depending on the strength and the direction of the abiotic or biotic factors. As predicted, biotic interactions most often occurred along lower limits, yet there were trophic differences. Carnivores were only limited by competitive interactions (n = 25), whereas herbivores were more influenced by predation and parasitism (77%; 55 of 71 studies). We highlight how these differences may create divergent range patterns along lower limits. We conclude by (a) summarizing iRLT; (b) contrasting how our model system and others fit this hypothesis and (c) suggesting future directions for evaluating iRLT.

Forest Ecology and Management

Abstract In our recent article, we use in situ ecophysiological data from individual sugar maple ... more Abstract In our recent article, we use in situ ecophysiological data from individual sugar maple trees across the species’ range to identify climate conditions that maximize the volume and sugar concentration of sap. Houle and Duchesne present a critique of our research that hinges on their own analysis of industry aggregate data on syrup production, from within the latitudinal range where the industry is currently concentrated. Their approach falls short of both a proper validation of our ecological model and a rigorous comparison of two potentially complementary contributions. Notably, the aggregate dataset that Houle and Duchesne analyze includes an arbitrary mix of traditional gravity tapping and vacuum tubing extraction of sap, where the latter can maintain sap flow in the absence of freeze/thaw dynamics. In contrast, we hold the collection method constant, avoiding the confounding effects of vacuum tubing collection. Thus, their model conflates historical climate data with ongoing changes in sap extraction methods, and thereby masks relationships between climate and the volume and sugar concentration of sap. Moreover, by using regionally constrained aggregate data, Houle and Duchesne fail to capture the breadth of the species’ responses to climate, which are represented in our dataset by populations at the edges of the species range. By ignoring these and other deep methodological discrepancies between their analysis and ours, Houle and Duchesne inappropriately put forth their own study as ‘validation’ of our ecological model. Unfortunately, this approach distracts from collaborative interdisciplinary discourse that could help refine predictions about sugar maple responses to climate. In our reply below, we refute Houle and Duchesne’s unfounded ad hominem claims that our paper predicts a collapse of the maple syrup industry or is ‘alarmist’ in any way, and we clarify our contribution where they otherwise mischaracterize or misunderstand our work. We maintain that our model suggests a climate optimum for syrup production, based on range-wide data on the underlying ecophysiological responses of individual trees. We further point out where future research could address gaps in our knowledge of climate effects on tree physiology (the focus of our research) and on the syrup industry itself (which appears to be the aim of Houle and Duchesne’s analysis here). We close by inviting researchers and syrup producers to join ACER-net, our collaborative science and outreach platform for understanding sugar maple and its ecosystem services in a changing world.

Biological Invasions

The article Incorporating climate change into invasive species management: insights from managers... more The article Incorporating climate change into invasive species management: insights from managers, written by Evelyn M. Beaury

Nature Climate Change

Accounting for within-species variability in the relationship between occurrence and climate is e... more Accounting for within-species variability in the relationship between occurrence and climate is essential to forecasting species' responses to climate change. Few climate-vulnerability assessments explicitly consider intraspecific variation, and those that do typically assume that variability is best explained by genetic affinity. Here, we evaluate how well heterogeneity in responses to climate by a cold-adapted mammal, the American pika (Ochotona princeps), aligns with subdivisions of the geographic range by phylogenetic lineage, physiography, elevation or ecoregion. We find that variability in climate responses is most consistently explained by an ecoregional subdivision paired with background sites selected from a broad spatial extent indicative of long-term (millennial-scale) responses to climate. Our work challenges the common assumption that intraspecific variation in climate responses aligns with genetic affinity. Accounting for the appropriate context and scale of heterogeneity in species' responses to climate will be critical for informing climate-adaptation management strategies at the local (spatial) extents at which such actions are typically implemented.

Climate Change Responses

Background: Climate change refugia, areas buffered from climate change relative to their surround... more Background: Climate change refugia, areas buffered from climate change relative to their surroundings, are of increasing interest as natural resource managers seek to prioritize climate adaptation actions. However, evidence that refugia buffer the effects of anthropogenic climate change is largely missing. Methods: Focusing on the climate-sensitive Belding's ground squirrel (Urocitellus beldingi), we predicted that highly connected Sierra Nevada meadows that had warmed less or shown less precipitation change over the last century would have greater population persistence, as measured by short-term occupancy, fewer extirpations over the twentieth century, and long-term persistence measured through genetic diversity. Results: Across California, U. beldingi were more likely to persist over the last century in meadows with high connectivity that were defined as refugial based on a suite of temperature and precipitation factors. In Yosemite National Park, highly connected refugial meadows were more likely to be occupied by U. beldingi. More broadly, populations inhabiting Sierra Nevada meadows with colder mean winter temperatures had higher values of allelic richness at microsatellite loci, consistent with higher population persistence in temperature-buffered sites. Furthermore, both allelic richness and gene flow were higher in meadows that had higher landscape connectivity, indicating the importance of metapopulation processes. Conversely, anthropogenic refugia, sites where populations appeared to persist due to food or water supplementation, had lower connectivity, genetic diversity, and gene flow, and thus might act as ecological traps. This study provides evidence that validates the climate change refugia concept in a contemporary context and illustrates how to integrate field observations and genetic analyses to test the effectiveness of climate change refugia and connectivity. Conclusions: Climate change refugia will be important for conserving populations as well as genetic diversity and evolutionary potential. Our study shows that in-depth modeling paired with rigorous fieldwork can identify functioning climate change refugia for conservation.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment

We define a translational ecologist as a professional ecologist with diverse disciplinary experti... more We define a translational ecologist as a professional ecologist with diverse disciplinary expertise and skill sets, as well as a suitable personal disposition, who engages across social, professional, and disciplinary boundaries to partner with decision makers to achieve practical environmental solutions. Becoming a translational ecologist requires specific attention to obtaining critical non-scientific disciplinary breadth and skills that are not typically gained through graduate-level education. Here, we outline a need for individuals with broad training in interdisciplinary skills, use our personal experiences as a basis for assessing the types of interdisciplinary skills that would benefit potential translational ecologists, and present steps that interested ecologists may take toward becoming translational. Skills relevant to translational ecologists may be garnered through personal experiences, informal training, short courses, fellowships, and graduate programs, among others. We argue that a translational ecology workforce is needed to bridge the gap between science and natural resource decisions. Furthermore, we argue that this task is a cooperative responsibility of individuals interested in pursuing these careers, educational institutions interested in training scientists for professional roles outside of academia, and employers seeking to hire skilled workers who can foster stakeholder-engaged decision making.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment

In a nutshell: • Translational ecology (TE) is an approach in which ecologists, stakeholders, and... more In a nutshell: • Translational ecology (TE) is an approach in which ecologists, stakeholders, and decision makers work together to develop research that addresses the sociological, ecological, and political contexts of an environmental problem • A TE strategy is characterized by extended commitment to real-world outcomes by ecologists, decision makers, and their associated institutions • Successful TE increases the likelihood that ecological science will inform and improve decision making for environmental management and conservation

Open-File Report

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has a long history of advancing the traditional Earth science d... more The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has a long history of advancing the traditional Earth science disciplines and identifying opportunities to integrate USGS science across disciplines to address complex societal problems. The USGS science strategy for 2007-2017 laid out key challenges in disciplinary and interdisciplinary arenas, culminating in a call for increased focus on a number of crosscutting science directions. Ten years on, to further the goal of integrated science and at the request of the Executive Leadership Team (ELT), a workshop with three dozen invited scientists spanning different disciplines and career stages in the Bureau convened on February 7-10, 2017, at the USGS John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis in Fort Collins, Colorado. The Department of Interior, and the Nation in general, have a vast array of information needs. The USGS meets these needs by having a broadly trained and agile scientific workforce. Encouraging and supporting cross-discipline engagement would position the USGS to tackle complex and multifaceted scientific and societal challenges in the 21st Century. Crosscutting Issues In workshop discussions, numerous crosscutting issues emerged related to completing well-integrated, interdisciplinary science within the Bureau, and to the importance and difficulty of communicating and delivering science information and products to those who can benefit from them. We want to deliver the right products to the right people at the right time. As we address the grand challenges, we should strive to build internal capabilities, processes, governance, and tools that will continue to improve our ability to deliver trusted and useful science to the Nation. Possible Next Steps We identified possible next steps for each of the grand challenges, but further work will be required to define clear research goals and project strategies. Each grand challenge is well suited to be a topic of a "design charrette," an intensive, collaborative planning effort focused on generating concepts (designs) for solutions to the grand challenge. Workshop participants were enthusiastic about pursuing multiple grand challenges in parallel, creating opportunities to learn through experience and experimentation about the most effective ways to work together to foster integrated science.

Ecosphere, 2017

Climate refugia management has been proposed as a climate adaptation strategy in the face of glob... more Climate refugia management has been proposed as a climate adaptation strategy in the face of global change. Key to this strategy is identification of these areas as well as an understanding of how they are connected on the landscape. Focusing on meadows of the Sierra Nevada in California, we examined multiple factors affecting connectivity using circuit theory, and determined how patches have been and are expected to be affected by climate change. Connectivity surfaces varied depending upon the underlying hypothesis, although meadow area and elevation were important features for higher connectivity. Climate refugia that would promote population persistence were identified from downscaled climate layers, based on locations with minimal climatic change from historical conditions. This approach was agnostic to specific species, yielding a broad perspective about changes and localized habitats. Connectivity was not a consistent predictor of refugial status in the 20th century, but expected future climate refugia tended to have higher connectivity than those that recently deviated from historical conditions. Climate change is projected to reduce the number of refugial meadows on a variety of climate axes, resulting in a sparser network of potential refugia across elevations. Our approach provides a straightforward method that can be used as a tool to prioritize places for climate adaptation.

The purpose of this Northeast Climate Science Center-led (NE CSC) cooperative report is to provid... more The purpose of this Northeast Climate Science Center-led (NE CSC) cooperative report is to provide a synthesis of what is known and what is uncertain about climate change and its impacts across the NE CSC region, with a particular focus on the responses and vulnerabilities of Regional Species of Greatest Conservation Need (RSGCN) and the habitats they depend on. Another goal is to describe a range of climate change adaptation approaches, processes, tools, and potential partnerships that are available to State natural resource managers across the Northeast and Midwest regions of the United States. Through illustrative case studies submitted by the NE CSC and partners, the report discusses climate change adaptation efforts being explored and implemented across local and large-landscape scales.

Biological Invasions

Effective natural resource management and policy is contingent on information generated by resear... more Effective natural resource management and policy is contingent on information generated by research. Conversely, the applicability of research depends on whether it is responsive to the needs and constraints of resource managers and policy makers. However, many scientific fields including invasion ecology suffer from a disconnect between research and practice. Despite strong socio-political imperatives, evidenced by extensive funding dedicated to addressing invasive species, the pairing of invasion ecology with stakeholder needs to support effective management and policy is lacking. As a potential solution, we propose translational invasion ecology (TIE). As an extension of translational ecology, as a framework to increase collaboration among scientists, practitioners, and policy makers to reduce negative impacts of invasive species. As an extension of translational ecology, TIE is an approach that embodies an intentional and inclusive process in which researchers, stakeholders, and...

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment

A nthropogenic climate change is predicted to impose an assortment of dramatic effects on society... more A nthropogenic climate change is predicted to impose an assortment of dramatic effects on society and ecosystems across the globe, prompting resource managers to look for place-based solutions to minimize associated biodiversity losses. The identification, protection, and management of climate-change refugia-generally defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change (see WebPanel 1 for a glossary of specialist terms)-has increasingly been proposed as a focus of climate adaptation actions to support the persistence of species, communities, and ecosystems, as well as sociocultural values (Keppel et al. 2015; Morelli et al. 2016). Since the refugia concept was first explored in a modern climate-change adaptation context (Ashcroft 2010; Dobrowski 2011; Keppel et al. 2012), technological and theoretical advances, as well as better recognition of practical applications (Anderson et al. 2014; Suggitt et al. 2018), have created more nuanced ways to identify and conserve these areas (Keppel et al. 2015; Morelli et al. 2016). Here, we explain not only how conservation strategies that focus on climate-change refugia increasingly incorporate ecological complexity, including issues of scale and the spectrum of climate-change vulnerability, but also how to consider objectives for climate-change refugia beyond their original static definition. The papers included in this Special Issue discuss how this burgeoning area of study is focused on improving conservation in the face of climate change. We take an inclusive view of climate-change refugia that recognizes the simultaneous importance of conservation in place ("in situ") and beyond ("ex situ") (Figure 1). Conservation of in situ refugia can help ensure some continuation of ecosystem services in the near term and preserve unique biodiversity (Keppel et al. 2015). Anticipatory planning for ex situ refugia recognizes, for example, the value of locations outside of a species' current native range that act as "stepping-stones", aiding long-term efforts to help species track their climatic niche by means of

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment

A healthy tension exists in climate-change research between developing concepts and insights with... more A healthy tension exists in climate-change research between developing concepts and insights with broad implications and providing information that can be applied to specific locations by conservation practitioners (eg Cook et al. 2013; Meadow et al. 2015). Models and broader theory regarding the spatial patterns of biodiversity can convey important insights into how those patterns might affect species' survival in a changing environment (Thuiller et al. 2008; Franklin et al. 2017). However, conservation practitioners urgently need additional direction on what they can do on the ground to stem, or at least slow, climate-change-related biodiversity loss. While broader implications are typically analyzed at large scales, meeting the needs of conservation practitioners requires data at finer scales, with clearly delineated boundaries to confirm and refine understanding of processes implied by larger-scale analyses (Hannah et al. 2014; Keppel and Wardell-Johnson 2015). Climate-change refugia are areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change that enable the persistence of valued physical, ecological, and sociocultural resources (Keppel et al. 2015; Morelli et al. 2016). An initial step to managing refugia for climate adaptation is identifying where they exist. This initial identification represents a spatial hypothesis constructed through various methods. Examples include comparing the current distribution of suitable habitat for a particular species with the modeled distribution of that habitat, given climate-change projections (Maher et al. 2017; Sweet et al. 2019), and mapping topographic features that buffer species from regional climate extremes (McCullough et al. 2016; Schwantes et al. 2018). However, these methods merely establish a spatial hypothesis of where climate buffering may occur, which is not an end in itself but rather a starting point toward ensuring that natural lands managers can identify, protect, and manage climate-change refugia. Morelli et al. (2016) illustrated the sequence of necessary tasks through the development of

Environmental Evidence

Background: Among the most widely anticipated climate-related impacts to biodiversity are geograp... more Background: Among the most widely anticipated climate-related impacts to biodiversity are geographic range shifts, whereby species shift their spatial distribution in response to changing climate conditions. In particular, a series of commonly articulated hypotheses have emerged: species are expected to shift their distributions to higher latitudes, greater elevations, and deeper depths in response to climate change, reflecting an underlying hypothesis that species will move to cooler locations to track spatial changes in the temperature of their current range. Yet, many species are not demonstrating range shifts consistent with these hypotheses. Resolving this discrepancy and providing effective explanations for the observed variability in species' range shifts is urgently needed to help support a range of natural resource management decisions. Here, we propose a protocol to review the body of evidence for commonly-held climate change range shift hypotheses at the species level focusing on observed latitudinal, longitudinal, elevational, and depth shifts in response to temperature and precipitation changes. We aim to answer the question: what is the impact of anthropogenic climate change (specifically changes in temperature and precipitation) on species ranges? Methods: In this review protocol, we propose to conduct a systematic search of literature from internet databases and search engines in English. Articles will be screened in a two-stage process (title/abstract and full text) to evaluate whether they meet a list of eligibility criteria (e.g., presents species-level data, compares > 1 time period). Initial data coding and extraction will be completed by four reviewers and checked by a secondary reviewer from among our co-authors. We will perform a formal meta-analysis to document estimated effect size using the subset of available range-shift data expressed in distance per time (e.g., km/decade). We will also use multinomial logistic regression models to assess the probability that species are shifting in a direction that supports our hypotheses (i.e. towards higher latitudes, greater elevations, and deeper depths). We will account for study methodology as a potential source of variation.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment

Ecography

Recent technological and methodological advances have revolutionized wildlife monitoring. Althoug... more Recent technological and methodological advances have revolutionized wildlife monitoring. Although most biodiversity monitoring initiatives are geared towards focal species of conservation concern, researchers are increasingly studying entire communities, specifically the spatiotemporal drivers of community size and structure and interactions among species. This has resulted in the emergence of multi-species occupancy models (MSOMs) as a promising and efficient approach for the study of community ecology. Given the potential of MSOMs for conservation and management action, it is critical to know whether study design and model assumptions are consistent with inference objectives. This is especially true for studies that are designed for a focal species but can give insights about a community. Here, we review the recent literature on MSOMs, identify areas of improvement in the multi-species study workflow, and provide a reference model for best practices for focal species and community monitoring study design. We reviewed 92 studies published between 2009 and early 2018, spanning 27 countries and a variety of taxa. There is a consistent under-reporting of details that are central to determining the adequacy of designs for generating data that can be used to make inferences about community-level patterns of occupancy, including the spatial and temporal extent, types of detectors used, covariates considered, and choice of field methods and statistical tools. This reporting bias could consequently result in skewed estimates, affecting conservation actions and management plans. On the other hand, comprehensive reporting is likely to help researchers working on MSOMs assess the robustness of inferences, in addition to making strides in terms of reproducibility and reusability of data. We use our literature review to inform a roadmap with best practices for MSOM studies, from simulations to design considerations and reporting, for the collection of new data as well as those involving existing datasets.

Journal of Animal Ecology

Abstract A central theme of range‐limit theory (RLT) posits that abiotic factors form high‐latitu... more Abstract A central theme of range‐limit theory (RLT) posits that abiotic factors form high‐latitude/altitude limits, whereas biotic interactions create lower limits. This hypothesis, often credited to Charles Darwin, is a pattern widely assumed to occur in nature. However, abiotic factors can impose constraints on both limits and there is scant evidence to support the latter prediction. Deviations from these predictions may arise from correlations between abiotic factors and biotic interactions, as a lack of data to evaluate the hypothesis, or be an artifact of scale. Combining two tenets of ecology—niche theory and predator–prey theory—provides an opportunity to understand how biotic interactions influence range limits and how this varies by trophic level. We propose an expansion of RLT, interactive RLT (iRLT), to understand the causes of range limits and predict range shifts. Incorporating the main predictions of Darwin's hypothesis, iRLT hypothesizes that abiotic and biotic factors can interact to impact both limits of a species’ range. We summarize current thinking on range limits and perform an integrative review to evaluate support for iRLT and trophic differences along range margins, surveying the mammal community along the boreal‐temperate and forest‐tundra ecotones of North America. Our review suggests that range‐limit dynamics are more nuanced and interactive than classically predicted by RLT. Many (57 of 70) studies indicate that biotic factors can ameliorate harsh climatic conditions along high‐latitude/altitude limits. Conversely, abiotic factors can also mediate biotic interactions along low‐latitude/altitude limits (44 of 68 studies). Both scenarios facilitate range expansion, contraction or stability depending on the strength and the direction of the abiotic or biotic factors. As predicted, biotic interactions most often occurred along lower limits, yet there were trophic differences. Carnivores were only limited by competitive interactions (n = 25), whereas herbivores were more influenced by predation and parasitism (77%; 55 of 71 studies). We highlight how these differences may create divergent range patterns along lower limits. We conclude by (a) summarizing iRLT; (b) contrasting how our model system and others fit this hypothesis and (c) suggesting future directions for evaluating iRLT.

Forest Ecology and Management

Abstract In our recent article, we use in situ ecophysiological data from individual sugar maple ... more Abstract In our recent article, we use in situ ecophysiological data from individual sugar maple trees across the species’ range to identify climate conditions that maximize the volume and sugar concentration of sap. Houle and Duchesne present a critique of our research that hinges on their own analysis of industry aggregate data on syrup production, from within the latitudinal range where the industry is currently concentrated. Their approach falls short of both a proper validation of our ecological model and a rigorous comparison of two potentially complementary contributions. Notably, the aggregate dataset that Houle and Duchesne analyze includes an arbitrary mix of traditional gravity tapping and vacuum tubing extraction of sap, where the latter can maintain sap flow in the absence of freeze/thaw dynamics. In contrast, we hold the collection method constant, avoiding the confounding effects of vacuum tubing collection. Thus, their model conflates historical climate data with ongoing changes in sap extraction methods, and thereby masks relationships between climate and the volume and sugar concentration of sap. Moreover, by using regionally constrained aggregate data, Houle and Duchesne fail to capture the breadth of the species’ responses to climate, which are represented in our dataset by populations at the edges of the species range. By ignoring these and other deep methodological discrepancies between their analysis and ours, Houle and Duchesne inappropriately put forth their own study as ‘validation’ of our ecological model. Unfortunately, this approach distracts from collaborative interdisciplinary discourse that could help refine predictions about sugar maple responses to climate. In our reply below, we refute Houle and Duchesne’s unfounded ad hominem claims that our paper predicts a collapse of the maple syrup industry or is ‘alarmist’ in any way, and we clarify our contribution where they otherwise mischaracterize or misunderstand our work. We maintain that our model suggests a climate optimum for syrup production, based on range-wide data on the underlying ecophysiological responses of individual trees. We further point out where future research could address gaps in our knowledge of climate effects on tree physiology (the focus of our research) and on the syrup industry itself (which appears to be the aim of Houle and Duchesne’s analysis here). We close by inviting researchers and syrup producers to join ACER-net, our collaborative science and outreach platform for understanding sugar maple and its ecosystem services in a changing world.

Biological Invasions

The article Incorporating climate change into invasive species management: insights from managers... more The article Incorporating climate change into invasive species management: insights from managers, written by Evelyn M. Beaury

Nature Climate Change

Accounting for within-species variability in the relationship between occurrence and climate is e... more Accounting for within-species variability in the relationship between occurrence and climate is essential to forecasting species' responses to climate change. Few climate-vulnerability assessments explicitly consider intraspecific variation, and those that do typically assume that variability is best explained by genetic affinity. Here, we evaluate how well heterogeneity in responses to climate by a cold-adapted mammal, the American pika (Ochotona princeps), aligns with subdivisions of the geographic range by phylogenetic lineage, physiography, elevation or ecoregion. We find that variability in climate responses is most consistently explained by an ecoregional subdivision paired with background sites selected from a broad spatial extent indicative of long-term (millennial-scale) responses to climate. Our work challenges the common assumption that intraspecific variation in climate responses aligns with genetic affinity. Accounting for the appropriate context and scale of heterogeneity in species' responses to climate will be critical for informing climate-adaptation management strategies at the local (spatial) extents at which such actions are typically implemented.

Climate Change Responses

Background: Climate change refugia, areas buffered from climate change relative to their surround... more Background: Climate change refugia, areas buffered from climate change relative to their surroundings, are of increasing interest as natural resource managers seek to prioritize climate adaptation actions. However, evidence that refugia buffer the effects of anthropogenic climate change is largely missing. Methods: Focusing on the climate-sensitive Belding's ground squirrel (Urocitellus beldingi), we predicted that highly connected Sierra Nevada meadows that had warmed less or shown less precipitation change over the last century would have greater population persistence, as measured by short-term occupancy, fewer extirpations over the twentieth century, and long-term persistence measured through genetic diversity. Results: Across California, U. beldingi were more likely to persist over the last century in meadows with high connectivity that were defined as refugial based on a suite of temperature and precipitation factors. In Yosemite National Park, highly connected refugial meadows were more likely to be occupied by U. beldingi. More broadly, populations inhabiting Sierra Nevada meadows with colder mean winter temperatures had higher values of allelic richness at microsatellite loci, consistent with higher population persistence in temperature-buffered sites. Furthermore, both allelic richness and gene flow were higher in meadows that had higher landscape connectivity, indicating the importance of metapopulation processes. Conversely, anthropogenic refugia, sites where populations appeared to persist due to food or water supplementation, had lower connectivity, genetic diversity, and gene flow, and thus might act as ecological traps. This study provides evidence that validates the climate change refugia concept in a contemporary context and illustrates how to integrate field observations and genetic analyses to test the effectiveness of climate change refugia and connectivity. Conclusions: Climate change refugia will be important for conserving populations as well as genetic diversity and evolutionary potential. Our study shows that in-depth modeling paired with rigorous fieldwork can identify functioning climate change refugia for conservation.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment

We define a translational ecologist as a professional ecologist with diverse disciplinary experti... more We define a translational ecologist as a professional ecologist with diverse disciplinary expertise and skill sets, as well as a suitable personal disposition, who engages across social, professional, and disciplinary boundaries to partner with decision makers to achieve practical environmental solutions. Becoming a translational ecologist requires specific attention to obtaining critical non-scientific disciplinary breadth and skills that are not typically gained through graduate-level education. Here, we outline a need for individuals with broad training in interdisciplinary skills, use our personal experiences as a basis for assessing the types of interdisciplinary skills that would benefit potential translational ecologists, and present steps that interested ecologists may take toward becoming translational. Skills relevant to translational ecologists may be garnered through personal experiences, informal training, short courses, fellowships, and graduate programs, among others. We argue that a translational ecology workforce is needed to bridge the gap between science and natural resource decisions. Furthermore, we argue that this task is a cooperative responsibility of individuals interested in pursuing these careers, educational institutions interested in training scientists for professional roles outside of academia, and employers seeking to hire skilled workers who can foster stakeholder-engaged decision making.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment

In a nutshell: • Translational ecology (TE) is an approach in which ecologists, stakeholders, and... more In a nutshell: • Translational ecology (TE) is an approach in which ecologists, stakeholders, and decision makers work together to develop research that addresses the sociological, ecological, and political contexts of an environmental problem • A TE strategy is characterized by extended commitment to real-world outcomes by ecologists, decision makers, and their associated institutions • Successful TE increases the likelihood that ecological science will inform and improve decision making for environmental management and conservation

Open-File Report

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has a long history of advancing the traditional Earth science d... more The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has a long history of advancing the traditional Earth science disciplines and identifying opportunities to integrate USGS science across disciplines to address complex societal problems. The USGS science strategy for 2007-2017 laid out key challenges in disciplinary and interdisciplinary arenas, culminating in a call for increased focus on a number of crosscutting science directions. Ten years on, to further the goal of integrated science and at the request of the Executive Leadership Team (ELT), a workshop with three dozen invited scientists spanning different disciplines and career stages in the Bureau convened on February 7-10, 2017, at the USGS John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis in Fort Collins, Colorado. The Department of Interior, and the Nation in general, have a vast array of information needs. The USGS meets these needs by having a broadly trained and agile scientific workforce. Encouraging and supporting cross-discipline engagement would position the USGS to tackle complex and multifaceted scientific and societal challenges in the 21st Century. Crosscutting Issues In workshop discussions, numerous crosscutting issues emerged related to completing well-integrated, interdisciplinary science within the Bureau, and to the importance and difficulty of communicating and delivering science information and products to those who can benefit from them. We want to deliver the right products to the right people at the right time. As we address the grand challenges, we should strive to build internal capabilities, processes, governance, and tools that will continue to improve our ability to deliver trusted and useful science to the Nation. Possible Next Steps We identified possible next steps for each of the grand challenges, but further work will be required to define clear research goals and project strategies. Each grand challenge is well suited to be a topic of a "design charrette," an intensive, collaborative planning effort focused on generating concepts (designs) for solutions to the grand challenge. Workshop participants were enthusiastic about pursuing multiple grand challenges in parallel, creating opportunities to learn through experience and experimentation about the most effective ways to work together to foster integrated science.

Ecosphere, 2017

Climate refugia management has been proposed as a climate adaptation strategy in the face of glob... more Climate refugia management has been proposed as a climate adaptation strategy in the face of global change. Key to this strategy is identification of these areas as well as an understanding of how they are connected on the landscape. Focusing on meadows of the Sierra Nevada in California, we examined multiple factors affecting connectivity using circuit theory, and determined how patches have been and are expected to be affected by climate change. Connectivity surfaces varied depending upon the underlying hypothesis, although meadow area and elevation were important features for higher connectivity. Climate refugia that would promote population persistence were identified from downscaled climate layers, based on locations with minimal climatic change from historical conditions. This approach was agnostic to specific species, yielding a broad perspective about changes and localized habitats. Connectivity was not a consistent predictor of refugial status in the 20th century, but expected future climate refugia tended to have higher connectivity than those that recently deviated from historical conditions. Climate change is projected to reduce the number of refugial meadows on a variety of climate axes, resulting in a sparser network of potential refugia across elevations. Our approach provides a straightforward method that can be used as a tool to prioritize places for climate adaptation.