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Papers by Wayne Davies

Research paper thumbnail of Acknowledgements I would like to thank the Department of Transport and Main Roads ’ Project Evaluation Team

for their support and provision of resources. The regular occurrence and the high costs of floodi... more for their support and provision of resources. The regular occurrence and the high costs of flooding to both road agencies and communities is a strong impetus to investigate the methodologies applied to evaluating flood immunity road projects. Very little literature exists on methods of evaluating the benefits of improving flood immunity through better road infrastructure. This paper attempts to address some of the numerous issues hindering the accurate evaluation of flood immunity road projects. The methodologies presented in this paper are designed to evaluate benefits that are not normally included or not fully considered in evaluations. The application of these methodologies is demonstrated in an example of a typical rural network subjected to regular flooding.

Research paper thumbnail of Program Evaluation: An Applied Case Study 1

Transport and Main Roads (TMR) Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) Team conducted the economic evaluation... more Transport and Main Roads (TMR) Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) Team conducted the economic evaluation of most of the projects proposed in a TMR strategic plan. The evaluation included almost 200 overtaking lanes, over 400kms of road widening and shoulder sealing in various locations, over 50 capacity focused projects and over 15 flood immunity projects (TMR 2013). The total projected capital costs of all projects proposed as part of this strategic plan amounted to several billion dollars. The program evaluation conducted, due to the short timeframes, lack of available data and strategic nature of the plan, has been ‘coined’ a strategic evaluation. This paper focuses on the economic evaluation methodology applied to the projects proposed in the strategic plan. A TMR designed project/program evaluation model (CARP V1.0 2 ) was used to evaluate the majority of the proposed projects. The model produces streams of discounted benefits and costs of the projects in the plan using limited and in...

Research paper thumbnail of Upgrading Rural Bridges for Improved Freight Efficiency

This paper focuses on the methods and approaches of evaluating the benefits of upgrading bridges ... more This paper focuses on the methods and approaches of evaluating the benefits of upgrading bridges that are currently structurally deficient to carry vehicles above certain tonnage or do not cater for certain heavy vehicle dimensions. Many of these bridges are located in rural areas where traffic volumes tend to be low. Benefits for most road projects are driven by traffic volume. If a project has high capital costs and low traffic volumes, a cost benefit analysis (CBA) would normally imply the project is not economically viable. The extent traffic volume is a causation of benefits for bridge upgrades is not as obvious as for other road project types. In this paper, the key determinants for deriving benefits for these bridge upgrades are discussed in some detail. These key determinants include the number of heavy vehicles, extent of restrictions (tonnage, size and length), length of diversion route required by heavy vehicles to avoid load and size restricted bridges, total distance he...

Research paper thumbnail of Advanced Methods of Evaluating Benefits from Improved Flood Immunity in Queensland

Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture, 2013

Research paper thumbnail of The Bruce Highway Action Plan Program Evaluation

Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture, 2015

Research paper thumbnail of Proposed Modifications to the Cost-Benefit Analysis Decision Criteria for Road Project Evaluation to Improve Decisionmaking

Transportation Journal, 2012

The Australian Transport Council (ATC) have identified that the benefit cost ratio (BCR), the net... more The Australian Transport Council (ATC) have identified that the benefit cost ratio (BCR), the net present value (NPV), and first-year rate of return (FYRR) decision criteria are appropriate inputs to project prioritization, mutual exclusive project selection, and optimal timing, respectively. This article suggests the net benefit investment ratio (NBIR), the incremental net benefit investment ratio (INBIR), and the internal rate of return (IRR) subject to decision criteria incorporating the marginal project as alternatives to those proposed by the ATC. The proposed decision criteria aim to reduce the impact of uncertainty surrounding discount rates and opportunity costs of capital, hence improving the quality of the quantitative inputs provided to decisionmakers.

Research paper thumbnail of Acknowledgements I would like to thank the Department of Transport and Main Roads ’ Project Evaluation Team

for their support and provision of resources. The regular occurrence and the high costs of floodi... more for their support and provision of resources. The regular occurrence and the high costs of flooding to both road agencies and communities is a strong impetus to investigate the methodologies applied to evaluating flood immunity road projects. Very little literature exists on methods of evaluating the benefits of improving flood immunity through better road infrastructure. This paper attempts to address some of the numerous issues hindering the accurate evaluation of flood immunity road projects. The methodologies presented in this paper are designed to evaluate benefits that are not normally included or not fully considered in evaluations. The application of these methodologies is demonstrated in an example of a typical rural network subjected to regular flooding.

Research paper thumbnail of Program Evaluation: An Applied Case Study 1

Transport and Main Roads (TMR) Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) Team conducted the economic evaluation... more Transport and Main Roads (TMR) Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) Team conducted the economic evaluation of most of the projects proposed in a TMR strategic plan. The evaluation included almost 200 overtaking lanes, over 400kms of road widening and shoulder sealing in various locations, over 50 capacity focused projects and over 15 flood immunity projects (TMR 2013). The total projected capital costs of all projects proposed as part of this strategic plan amounted to several billion dollars. The program evaluation conducted, due to the short timeframes, lack of available data and strategic nature of the plan, has been ‘coined’ a strategic evaluation. This paper focuses on the economic evaluation methodology applied to the projects proposed in the strategic plan. A TMR designed project/program evaluation model (CARP V1.0 2 ) was used to evaluate the majority of the proposed projects. The model produces streams of discounted benefits and costs of the projects in the plan using limited and in...

Research paper thumbnail of Upgrading Rural Bridges for Improved Freight Efficiency

This paper focuses on the methods and approaches of evaluating the benefits of upgrading bridges ... more This paper focuses on the methods and approaches of evaluating the benefits of upgrading bridges that are currently structurally deficient to carry vehicles above certain tonnage or do not cater for certain heavy vehicle dimensions. Many of these bridges are located in rural areas where traffic volumes tend to be low. Benefits for most road projects are driven by traffic volume. If a project has high capital costs and low traffic volumes, a cost benefit analysis (CBA) would normally imply the project is not economically viable. The extent traffic volume is a causation of benefits for bridge upgrades is not as obvious as for other road project types. In this paper, the key determinants for deriving benefits for these bridge upgrades are discussed in some detail. These key determinants include the number of heavy vehicles, extent of restrictions (tonnage, size and length), length of diversion route required by heavy vehicles to avoid load and size restricted bridges, total distance he...

Research paper thumbnail of Advanced Methods of Evaluating Benefits from Improved Flood Immunity in Queensland

Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture, 2013

Research paper thumbnail of The Bruce Highway Action Plan Program Evaluation

Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture, 2015

Research paper thumbnail of Proposed Modifications to the Cost-Benefit Analysis Decision Criteria for Road Project Evaluation to Improve Decisionmaking

Transportation Journal, 2012

The Australian Transport Council (ATC) have identified that the benefit cost ratio (BCR), the net... more The Australian Transport Council (ATC) have identified that the benefit cost ratio (BCR), the net present value (NPV), and first-year rate of return (FYRR) decision criteria are appropriate inputs to project prioritization, mutual exclusive project selection, and optimal timing, respectively. This article suggests the net benefit investment ratio (NBIR), the incremental net benefit investment ratio (INBIR), and the internal rate of return (IRR) subject to decision criteria incorporating the marginal project as alternatives to those proposed by the ATC. The proposed decision criteria aim to reduce the impact of uncertainty surrounding discount rates and opportunity costs of capital, hence improving the quality of the quantitative inputs provided to decisionmakers.

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