Gerald Willard - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
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Papers by Gerald Willard
In the past few years, government and industry leaders have been increasingly concerned about the... more In the past few years, government and industry leaders have been increasingly concerned about the protection of the United States critical infrastructure systems. Critical infrastructures of particular concern are the nation's electric power grids, especially in light of the recent Northeast blackout of August 2003 1. At an estimated cost of between 7 and 10 billion dollars for this single event 2 , the need to devise an early warning system for large cascading power failures cannot be overstated. The following article will describe a complex systems modeling approach that would enable the development of just such an early warning system.
Internet Monitoring and Alerting System
This paper presents a new methodology for analyzing complex networks in which the network of inte... more This paper presents a new methodology for analyzing complex networks in which the network of interest is first abstracted to a much simpler (but equivalent) representation, the required analysis is performed using the abstraction, and analytic conclusions are then mapped back to the original network and interpreted there. We begin by identifying a broad and important class of complex networks which admit abstractions that are simultaneously dramatically simplifying and property preserving-we call these aggressive abstractions-and which can therefore be analyzed using the proposed approach. We then introduce and develop two forms of aggressive abstraction: 1.) finite state abstraction, in which dynamical networks with uncountable state spaces are modeled using finite state systems, and 2.) onedimensional abstraction, whereby high dimensional network dynamics are captured in a meaningful way using a single scalar variable. In each case, the property preserving nature of the abstraction process is rigorously established and efficient algorithms are presented for computing the abstraction. The considerable potential of the proposed approach to complex networks analysis is illustrated through case studies involving vulnerability analysis of technological networks and predictive analysis for social processes. Contents v Acronyms BMC bounded model checking BNF Brunovsky normal form CSM complex system matrix DILO deep information from limited observation HDS hybrid dynamical systems ISS indistinguishable starting sets LTL linear temporal logic PCE post/context entropy PEP positive externality processes RYF robust yet fragile SDP social democratic party SI social influence SMT social movement theory SSI state space subsets of interest SDE stochastic differential euqation S-HDS stochastic hybrid dynamical system SOS sum of squares SCFS supervisory control for finite state systems
This article examines the notion of cyber attack-defend co-evolution as a mechanism to better und... more This article examines the notion of cyber attack-defend co-evolution as a mechanism to better understand the influences that the opposing forces have on each other. The concept of co-evolution has been most commonly applied to a biological context involving living organisms and nature-based adaptations, but can be applied to technological domains as well. Cybersecurity strategies based solely on technological features of attack-and-defend adaptations do not immediately reveal a co-evolutionary relationship and are typically seen more as cyber arms races. In order to leverage cyber co-evolution in support of cybersecurity, the human-driven behaviors of cyber attack-and-defend adaptations have to be incorporated. In other words, the mission must serve to drive human motives and goals, and in many cases, limit the scope of an attacker’s adaptations.
Drafts by Gerald Willard
In the past few years, government and industry leaders have been increasingly concerned about the... more In the past few years, government and industry leaders have been increasingly concerned about the protection of the United States critical infrastructure systems. Critical infrastructures of particular concern are the nation’s electric power grids, especially in light of the recent Northeast blackout of August 20031 . At an estimated cost of between 7 and 10 billion dollars for this single event2 , the need to devise an early warning system for large cascading power failures cannot be overstated. The following article will describe a complex systems modeling approach that would enable the development of just such an early warning system.
In the past few years, government and industry leaders have been increasingly concerned about the... more In the past few years, government and industry leaders have been increasingly concerned about the protection of the United States critical infrastructure systems. Critical infrastructures of particular concern are the nation's electric power grids, especially in light of the recent Northeast blackout of August 2003 1. At an estimated cost of between 7 and 10 billion dollars for this single event 2 , the need to devise an early warning system for large cascading power failures cannot be overstated. The following article will describe a complex systems modeling approach that would enable the development of just such an early warning system.
Internet Monitoring and Alerting System
This paper presents a new methodology for analyzing complex networks in which the network of inte... more This paper presents a new methodology for analyzing complex networks in which the network of interest is first abstracted to a much simpler (but equivalent) representation, the required analysis is performed using the abstraction, and analytic conclusions are then mapped back to the original network and interpreted there. We begin by identifying a broad and important class of complex networks which admit abstractions that are simultaneously dramatically simplifying and property preserving-we call these aggressive abstractions-and which can therefore be analyzed using the proposed approach. We then introduce and develop two forms of aggressive abstraction: 1.) finite state abstraction, in which dynamical networks with uncountable state spaces are modeled using finite state systems, and 2.) onedimensional abstraction, whereby high dimensional network dynamics are captured in a meaningful way using a single scalar variable. In each case, the property preserving nature of the abstraction process is rigorously established and efficient algorithms are presented for computing the abstraction. The considerable potential of the proposed approach to complex networks analysis is illustrated through case studies involving vulnerability analysis of technological networks and predictive analysis for social processes. Contents v Acronyms BMC bounded model checking BNF Brunovsky normal form CSM complex system matrix DILO deep information from limited observation HDS hybrid dynamical systems ISS indistinguishable starting sets LTL linear temporal logic PCE post/context entropy PEP positive externality processes RYF robust yet fragile SDP social democratic party SI social influence SMT social movement theory SSI state space subsets of interest SDE stochastic differential euqation S-HDS stochastic hybrid dynamical system SOS sum of squares SCFS supervisory control for finite state systems
This article examines the notion of cyber attack-defend co-evolution as a mechanism to better und... more This article examines the notion of cyber attack-defend co-evolution as a mechanism to better understand the influences that the opposing forces have on each other. The concept of co-evolution has been most commonly applied to a biological context involving living organisms and nature-based adaptations, but can be applied to technological domains as well. Cybersecurity strategies based solely on technological features of attack-and-defend adaptations do not immediately reveal a co-evolutionary relationship and are typically seen more as cyber arms races. In order to leverage cyber co-evolution in support of cybersecurity, the human-driven behaviors of cyber attack-and-defend adaptations have to be incorporated. In other words, the mission must serve to drive human motives and goals, and in many cases, limit the scope of an attacker’s adaptations.
In the past few years, government and industry leaders have been increasingly concerned about the... more In the past few years, government and industry leaders have been increasingly concerned about the protection of the United States critical infrastructure systems. Critical infrastructures of particular concern are the nation’s electric power grids, especially in light of the recent Northeast blackout of August 20031 . At an estimated cost of between 7 and 10 billion dollars for this single event2 , the need to devise an early warning system for large cascading power failures cannot be overstated. The following article will describe a complex systems modeling approach that would enable the development of just such an early warning system.