Wolfgang Lutz - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by Wolfgang Lutz
BMJ open, Jan 23, 2017
To project the proportion of population 65+ years with severe long-term activity limitations from... more To project the proportion of population 65+ years with severe long-term activity limitations from 2017 to 2047. Large population study. Population living in private households of the European Union (EU) and neighbouring countries. Participants from the EU Statistics on Income and Living Conditions aged 55 years and older and living in one of 26 EU and neighbouring countries, who answered the health section of the questionnaire. Prevalence of severe long-term activity limitations of particular subpopulations (ie, 55+, 65+, 75+ and 85+ years) by sex and country. We find a huge variation in the prevalence of self-reported severe long-term limitations across Europe for both sexes. However, in 2017, about 20% of the female population aged 65 years and above and about 16% of their male counterparts are expected to report severe long-term activity limitations after accounting for differences in reporting. Accounting for cultural differences in reporting, we expect that European countries w...
The effect of changes in age structure on economic growth has been widely studied in the demograp... more The effect of changes in age structure on economic growth has been widely studied in the demography and population economics literature. The beneficial effect of changes in age structure after a decrease in fertility has become known as the demographic dividend. In this paper we first present the motivation for also explicitly addressing changes in education in addition to and age structure and then reassess the empirical evidence on the associations among economic growth, changes in age structure, labor force participation and new data on educational attainment. Using a global panel of countries, we find that once the effect of human capital dynamics is controlled for there is no evidence that changes in age structure affect labor productivity. Our results imply that improvements in educational attainment are not only drivers of fertility decline and hence age structural changes but are also key to explaining productivity and income growth.
Population study cannot proceed without data, and demographers hasten to seize on any pieces of d... more Population study cannot proceed without data, and demographers hasten to seize on any pieces of data they can find. They use the kind of ingenuity in reconstructing the demographic record from inadequate materials that we expect from a paleontologist who finds a few bones in a cave and gives us a model of the whole animal. The present work is an example. For the Ukraine, the demographic record is especially spotty, with gaps due to wars and internal difficulties; so much so that as the material stands, it is not usable directly t o deduce the important facts of fertility and mortality. The authors of this paper ingeniously adapted standard methods to provide a complete and consistent set of estimates year by year. Starting with period datai.e. by age for each calendar year for which there was a recordthey rearranged the series according to cohortsi.e. following the life course of groups of individuals born at a given time. For each cohort they were able to take the available points spotted through the several ages and fill out the intervening ages, thus obtaining a complete cohort record. This they then reassembled into periods. Some analysis of the results appears in the paper, but much more can be done to relate the figures to the social and economic history of the Ukraine.
Population, Space and Place, 2005
The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis is an interdisciplinary, nongovernmental... more The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis is an interdisciplinary, nongovernmental research institution founded in 1972 by leading scientific organizations in 12 countries. Situated near Vienna, in the center of Europe, IIASA has been producing valuable scientific ...
The scientific analysis of the interactions between the human population and its natural environm... more The scientific analysis of the interactions between the human population and its natural environment is highly complex and full of traps. Studies in this field often focus on just one specific mechanism by which population changes impact on environmental changes (or vice versa) in very specific settings. A broad variety of analytical tools, ranging from GIS-based studies over qualitative/anthropological research to computer simulation models, and the fact that these studies need to draw on several scientific disciplines, tend to make such studies less straightforward than the more conventional studies within one discipline. The combination of this analytical complexity with the fact that population-environment interdependencies are often perceived as being of greatest importance for the future makes this field particularly vulnerable to advocacy groups that have another agenda than the scientific one. In this presentation I will try to review the field and summarize the findings of ...
This paper presents the outline of a new project which was recently approved as an Advanced Grant... more This paper presents the outline of a new project which was recently approved as an Advanced Grant by the European Research Council (ERC). It will apply two distinctly demographic concepts to address questions that go far beyond demography. It will study the indicators of and the conditions for sustainable human wellbeing. The wellbeing indicators proposed here will be based on life table methods and the recently operationalized concept of Demographic Metabolism – modelling social change through the replacement of generations – will be used to get a quantitative analytical handle on the temporal dynamics of improving human wellbeing. The project will theoretically develop, empirically estimate, test and forecast indicators of human wellbeing that are based on life table methods and hence reflect the basic – but often overlooked fact – that being alive is a necessary prerequisite for enjoying any quality of life. But since mere survival is not sufficient as an ultimate goal for most p...
Finnish Yearbook of Population Research, 1992
The population of Finland is projected along eleven different scenarios assuming widely diverging... more The population of Finland is projected along eleven different scenarios assuming widely diverging alternative trends in fertility, mortality and migration up to the year 2100. The definitions of these scenarios follow those of a recent study (Lutz, 1991) on Europe and North America. They range from constant rates to assuming replacement fertility versus a Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 1.1, mortality stagnation versus a strong increase in life expectancy, and no immigration versus 30,000 migrants per year. The results show that no matter what scenario is chosen, the next 30 years will bring an enormous increase of the population over age 65. The proportion in working age will be relatively stable up to the year 2010 and then strongly decline under all conditions, which is a consequence of the Finnish baby boom of the late 1940s. Projected total population sizes in 2050 will range from 3.5 million in the fertility decline scenario to 6.6 million in the high immigration scenario.
This report was produced by the Pew Research Center's Forum on Religion & Public Life. The Pew Re... more This report was produced by the Pew Research Center's Forum on Religion & Public Life. The Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan fact tank that provides information on the issues, attitudes and trends shaping America and the world. The center conducts public opinion polling, demographic studies, content analysis and other empirical social science research. It does not take positions on policy issues. The Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life is a project of the Pew Research Center; it delivers timely, impartial information on the issues at the intersection of religion and public affairs in the U.S. and around the world. The Pew Research Center is an independently operated subsidiary of The Pew Charitable Trusts. This report is part of the Pew-Templeton Global Religious Futures project, which is jointly and generously funded by The Pew Charitable Trusts and the John Templeton Foundation. The project analyzes religious change and its impact on societies around the world. The report is a collaborative effort based on the input and analysis of the following individuals:
World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century, 2014
This paper makes the case for systematically adding education to age and sex as a third standard ... more This paper makes the case for systematically adding education to age and sex as a third standard demographic dimension. It directly addresses the question whether the pervasive association of education with demographic outcomes reflects a causal relationship. Based on the notion of functional causality, the paper reviews theoretical and empirical approaches for assessing this question according to three criteria. It also explores possible alternative explanations such as reverse causality and self-selection, concluding that a functional causal relationship between education and health-and fertility-related outcomes is supported by the evidence. The paper then describes the book's expert argument-based approach for defining assumptions for population projections and compares this approach with how European national statistical offices now make and use their assumptions for population projections. Against this background the approach chosen for this study combines a structured substantive inquiry among hundreds of international experts with formal statistical models.
This paper focuses on the approach to population projections that has been labeled scenario analy... more This paper focuses on the approach to population projections that has been labeled scenario analysis. It looks at the original meaning of "scenario" and then discusses its appropriate usage in population projections with respect to several criteria, especially that of consistency of assumptions. Next, the paper describes the practical considerations and actual experiences in an IIASA effort to define alternative scenarios for 12 world regions to the year 2030 through discussions of a group of experts. Because of differential expertise and an uneasiness of experts to numerically define alternative scenarios, an interactive group process was chosen rather than a larger Delphi. On practical and theoretical grounds it became apparent that individual responsibility and judgement of the authors cannot be replaced by an anonymous "objective" entity making the assumptions. Finally, the paper discusses what kind of alternative variants (or scenarios) the users can handle and do expect. It is exemplified through the specific question whether the UN should change its current practice of making population projections. Pro and contra arguments are listed concerning the proposal to include alternative mortality assumptions into the three main variants that are widely publicized. What Do the Users Expect in Terms of Information That Goes Beyond One Most Likely Variant (or Scenario)? References ' An international meeting on the broad issue of basic approaches to international population projections is planned to be held at IIASA in January 1996 as a component of IIASA's new International Population Projection Workshop (IPPW). This meeting will also include various groups of users.
Today more than half of the world population has fertility below the replacement level, i.e., les... more Today more than half of the world population has fertility below the replacement level, i.e., less than two surviving children per woman; and there are now several countries where fertility has dropped to levels that are of serious concern to policy-makers. All major population projections currently assume that fertility in the countries with the lowest levels will recover or at least not decline any further. Should birth rates, however, defy these projections and continue to decline, then these populations would shrink and age much more rapidly than currently assumed. The "low fertility trap hypothesis" discussed in this contribution gives plausible reasons why indeed fewer and fewer people may want to have children in the future.
This paper proposes a new approach for defining the assumptions in population projections. It is ... more This paper proposes a new approach for defining the assumptions in population projections. It is based on a broad discussion and argumentation exercise which critically assesses the science basis of alternative arguments that relate to the forces which jointly shape the future trends in fertility, mortality and migration. It starts by discussing the results of a recent Eurostat survey among all EU national statistical offices in which there appears a clear consensus that the current practice of defining assumptions for population projections should be improved through stronger interactions with the scientific community. As an instrument for such interactions, the paper goes on to propose an interactive spreadsheet in which more than 100 arguments relating to the forces shaping future fertility, mortality and migration have been formulated. Invited experts then evaluate these arguments with respect to their validity and their potential impacts on the force under consideration. This interactive questionnaire has already been used to define the assumptions in the official UK population projections and with an international group of 17 mortality experts. With further fine tuning, this approach can be used to collect and synthesize the expertise of large numbers of experts for defining median assumptions and the associated ranges of uncertainty. It has the potential to become a standard tool for the future production of national and international population projections.
A review is provided of the future prospects for the conservation of biodiversity in Namibia to t... more A review is provided of the future prospects for the conservation of biodiversity in Namibia to the middle of the 21st century. I consider the biodiversity of Namibia within a biophysical and social environmental framework. Namibia is a large, semi-arid to arid ...
BMJ open, Jan 23, 2017
To project the proportion of population 65+ years with severe long-term activity limitations from... more To project the proportion of population 65+ years with severe long-term activity limitations from 2017 to 2047. Large population study. Population living in private households of the European Union (EU) and neighbouring countries. Participants from the EU Statistics on Income and Living Conditions aged 55 years and older and living in one of 26 EU and neighbouring countries, who answered the health section of the questionnaire. Prevalence of severe long-term activity limitations of particular subpopulations (ie, 55+, 65+, 75+ and 85+ years) by sex and country. We find a huge variation in the prevalence of self-reported severe long-term limitations across Europe for both sexes. However, in 2017, about 20% of the female population aged 65 years and above and about 16% of their male counterparts are expected to report severe long-term activity limitations after accounting for differences in reporting. Accounting for cultural differences in reporting, we expect that European countries w...
The effect of changes in age structure on economic growth has been widely studied in the demograp... more The effect of changes in age structure on economic growth has been widely studied in the demography and population economics literature. The beneficial effect of changes in age structure after a decrease in fertility has become known as the demographic dividend. In this paper we first present the motivation for also explicitly addressing changes in education in addition to and age structure and then reassess the empirical evidence on the associations among economic growth, changes in age structure, labor force participation and new data on educational attainment. Using a global panel of countries, we find that once the effect of human capital dynamics is controlled for there is no evidence that changes in age structure affect labor productivity. Our results imply that improvements in educational attainment are not only drivers of fertility decline and hence age structural changes but are also key to explaining productivity and income growth.
Population study cannot proceed without data, and demographers hasten to seize on any pieces of d... more Population study cannot proceed without data, and demographers hasten to seize on any pieces of data they can find. They use the kind of ingenuity in reconstructing the demographic record from inadequate materials that we expect from a paleontologist who finds a few bones in a cave and gives us a model of the whole animal. The present work is an example. For the Ukraine, the demographic record is especially spotty, with gaps due to wars and internal difficulties; so much so that as the material stands, it is not usable directly t o deduce the important facts of fertility and mortality. The authors of this paper ingeniously adapted standard methods to provide a complete and consistent set of estimates year by year. Starting with period datai.e. by age for each calendar year for which there was a recordthey rearranged the series according to cohortsi.e. following the life course of groups of individuals born at a given time. For each cohort they were able to take the available points spotted through the several ages and fill out the intervening ages, thus obtaining a complete cohort record. This they then reassembled into periods. Some analysis of the results appears in the paper, but much more can be done to relate the figures to the social and economic history of the Ukraine.
Population, Space and Place, 2005
The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis is an interdisciplinary, nongovernmental... more The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis is an interdisciplinary, nongovernmental research institution founded in 1972 by leading scientific organizations in 12 countries. Situated near Vienna, in the center of Europe, IIASA has been producing valuable scientific ...
The scientific analysis of the interactions between the human population and its natural environm... more The scientific analysis of the interactions between the human population and its natural environment is highly complex and full of traps. Studies in this field often focus on just one specific mechanism by which population changes impact on environmental changes (or vice versa) in very specific settings. A broad variety of analytical tools, ranging from GIS-based studies over qualitative/anthropological research to computer simulation models, and the fact that these studies need to draw on several scientific disciplines, tend to make such studies less straightforward than the more conventional studies within one discipline. The combination of this analytical complexity with the fact that population-environment interdependencies are often perceived as being of greatest importance for the future makes this field particularly vulnerable to advocacy groups that have another agenda than the scientific one. In this presentation I will try to review the field and summarize the findings of ...
This paper presents the outline of a new project which was recently approved as an Advanced Grant... more This paper presents the outline of a new project which was recently approved as an Advanced Grant by the European Research Council (ERC). It will apply two distinctly demographic concepts to address questions that go far beyond demography. It will study the indicators of and the conditions for sustainable human wellbeing. The wellbeing indicators proposed here will be based on life table methods and the recently operationalized concept of Demographic Metabolism – modelling social change through the replacement of generations – will be used to get a quantitative analytical handle on the temporal dynamics of improving human wellbeing. The project will theoretically develop, empirically estimate, test and forecast indicators of human wellbeing that are based on life table methods and hence reflect the basic – but often overlooked fact – that being alive is a necessary prerequisite for enjoying any quality of life. But since mere survival is not sufficient as an ultimate goal for most p...
Finnish Yearbook of Population Research, 1992
The population of Finland is projected along eleven different scenarios assuming widely diverging... more The population of Finland is projected along eleven different scenarios assuming widely diverging alternative trends in fertility, mortality and migration up to the year 2100. The definitions of these scenarios follow those of a recent study (Lutz, 1991) on Europe and North America. They range from constant rates to assuming replacement fertility versus a Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 1.1, mortality stagnation versus a strong increase in life expectancy, and no immigration versus 30,000 migrants per year. The results show that no matter what scenario is chosen, the next 30 years will bring an enormous increase of the population over age 65. The proportion in working age will be relatively stable up to the year 2010 and then strongly decline under all conditions, which is a consequence of the Finnish baby boom of the late 1940s. Projected total population sizes in 2050 will range from 3.5 million in the fertility decline scenario to 6.6 million in the high immigration scenario.
This report was produced by the Pew Research Center's Forum on Religion & Public Life. The Pew Re... more This report was produced by the Pew Research Center's Forum on Religion & Public Life. The Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan fact tank that provides information on the issues, attitudes and trends shaping America and the world. The center conducts public opinion polling, demographic studies, content analysis and other empirical social science research. It does not take positions on policy issues. The Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life is a project of the Pew Research Center; it delivers timely, impartial information on the issues at the intersection of religion and public affairs in the U.S. and around the world. The Pew Research Center is an independently operated subsidiary of The Pew Charitable Trusts. This report is part of the Pew-Templeton Global Religious Futures project, which is jointly and generously funded by The Pew Charitable Trusts and the John Templeton Foundation. The project analyzes religious change and its impact on societies around the world. The report is a collaborative effort based on the input and analysis of the following individuals:
World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century, 2014
This paper makes the case for systematically adding education to age and sex as a third standard ... more This paper makes the case for systematically adding education to age and sex as a third standard demographic dimension. It directly addresses the question whether the pervasive association of education with demographic outcomes reflects a causal relationship. Based on the notion of functional causality, the paper reviews theoretical and empirical approaches for assessing this question according to three criteria. It also explores possible alternative explanations such as reverse causality and self-selection, concluding that a functional causal relationship between education and health-and fertility-related outcomes is supported by the evidence. The paper then describes the book's expert argument-based approach for defining assumptions for population projections and compares this approach with how European national statistical offices now make and use their assumptions for population projections. Against this background the approach chosen for this study combines a structured substantive inquiry among hundreds of international experts with formal statistical models.
This paper focuses on the approach to population projections that has been labeled scenario analy... more This paper focuses on the approach to population projections that has been labeled scenario analysis. It looks at the original meaning of "scenario" and then discusses its appropriate usage in population projections with respect to several criteria, especially that of consistency of assumptions. Next, the paper describes the practical considerations and actual experiences in an IIASA effort to define alternative scenarios for 12 world regions to the year 2030 through discussions of a group of experts. Because of differential expertise and an uneasiness of experts to numerically define alternative scenarios, an interactive group process was chosen rather than a larger Delphi. On practical and theoretical grounds it became apparent that individual responsibility and judgement of the authors cannot be replaced by an anonymous "objective" entity making the assumptions. Finally, the paper discusses what kind of alternative variants (or scenarios) the users can handle and do expect. It is exemplified through the specific question whether the UN should change its current practice of making population projections. Pro and contra arguments are listed concerning the proposal to include alternative mortality assumptions into the three main variants that are widely publicized. What Do the Users Expect in Terms of Information That Goes Beyond One Most Likely Variant (or Scenario)? References ' An international meeting on the broad issue of basic approaches to international population projections is planned to be held at IIASA in January 1996 as a component of IIASA's new International Population Projection Workshop (IPPW). This meeting will also include various groups of users.
Today more than half of the world population has fertility below the replacement level, i.e., les... more Today more than half of the world population has fertility below the replacement level, i.e., less than two surviving children per woman; and there are now several countries where fertility has dropped to levels that are of serious concern to policy-makers. All major population projections currently assume that fertility in the countries with the lowest levels will recover or at least not decline any further. Should birth rates, however, defy these projections and continue to decline, then these populations would shrink and age much more rapidly than currently assumed. The "low fertility trap hypothesis" discussed in this contribution gives plausible reasons why indeed fewer and fewer people may want to have children in the future.
This paper proposes a new approach for defining the assumptions in population projections. It is ... more This paper proposes a new approach for defining the assumptions in population projections. It is based on a broad discussion and argumentation exercise which critically assesses the science basis of alternative arguments that relate to the forces which jointly shape the future trends in fertility, mortality and migration. It starts by discussing the results of a recent Eurostat survey among all EU national statistical offices in which there appears a clear consensus that the current practice of defining assumptions for population projections should be improved through stronger interactions with the scientific community. As an instrument for such interactions, the paper goes on to propose an interactive spreadsheet in which more than 100 arguments relating to the forces shaping future fertility, mortality and migration have been formulated. Invited experts then evaluate these arguments with respect to their validity and their potential impacts on the force under consideration. This interactive questionnaire has already been used to define the assumptions in the official UK population projections and with an international group of 17 mortality experts. With further fine tuning, this approach can be used to collect and synthesize the expertise of large numbers of experts for defining median assumptions and the associated ranges of uncertainty. It has the potential to become a standard tool for the future production of national and international population projections.
A review is provided of the future prospects for the conservation of biodiversity in Namibia to t... more A review is provided of the future prospects for the conservation of biodiversity in Namibia to the middle of the 21st century. I consider the biodiversity of Namibia within a biophysical and social environmental framework. Namibia is a large, semi-arid to arid ...