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This chapter is built around 5 outlines: - All climate scenarios for Flanders clearly indicate an... more This chapter is built around 5 outlines: - All climate scenarios for Flanders clearly indicate an increase in the ambient temperature (e.g. by 1.5 °C to 4.4 °C in the winter and by 2.4 °C to 7.2 °C in the summer), a higher evaporation in the winter and summer and finally more precipitation during the winter by 2100. The sea level at the Flemish coast may rise by 20 to 200 cm this century. - The majority of climate scenarios indicate a drop in the average summer precipitation for Flanders. Combined with higher evaporation this will decrease the lowest river flows during dry summers by over 50 % by the end of the 21st century. The chances of severe water shortages increase as a result. - Despite a drop in summer precipitation, an increase in the number of extreme summer storms may be expected in Flanders. This increases the probability of flooding of sewers. - The risk of financial damage due to flooding varies greatly, depending on the various climate scenarios for Flanders: from a d...
Flooding is a natural phenomenon and is highly unpredictable, therefore inundations are always po... more Flooding is a natural phenomenon and is highly unpredictable, therefore inundations are always possible. In Flanders, the organization responsible for the management of fl ooding of navigable waterways is the Waterways and Marine Affairs Administration (AWZ). They believe that a good approach in dealing with fl ooding takes into account the actual effects of the inundation by analyzing risk. Damage calculation is used as an essential element in risk calculations, where risk is defi ned as a mathematical combination of the potential damage and the frequency of fl ooding. The calculated risk maps are used as a basic input in (social) cost-benefi t analysis because they allow an objective comparison of different alternatives in different hydrographical catchments. This paper describes the state of the art AWZ Flood Risk model and some applications where risk calculation is used to assess changes in time and as a tool for planning infrastructure in the future.
available at: http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/climate-impacts-and-vulnerability-2012
Het Europese Interreg-project Amice brengt 17 partners bij elkaar die betrokken zijn bij het behe... more Het Europese Interreg-project Amice brengt 17 partners bij elkaar die betrokken zijn bij het beheer van de Maas. Onder meer het Waterbouwkundig Laboratorium en nv De Scheepvaart nemen aan het project deel. Disclaimer and terms of use for full text at http://documentatiecentrum.watlab.be/owa/imis.php?module=ref&refid=206415
Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 2014
Peeters1 and W o u te r V anneuville3 1 Flanders H ydrau lic Research, M in isterie van de V laam... more Peeters1 and W o u te r V anneuville3 1 Flanders H ydrau lic Research, M in isterie van de V laam se G e m e en sch ap Berchem lei 1 1 5, B -2 1 4 0 B o rg e rh o u t, Belgium E -m ail: to o n .v e rw a e s t@ lin .v la a n d e re n .b e 2 C oa sta l D ivisio n, M in iste rie van de V laam se G e m e en sch ap V rijh a ve n stra a t 3 , B -8 4 0 0 O o s te n d e , Belgium 3 V a kg ro e p G e o g ra fie , U niversiteit G e n t K rijgslaan 281 (S8), B -9 0 0 0 G e n t, Belgium SAFECoast is an Interreg lllb project with 9 p artner organisations from the N etherlands, Flanders, D enm ark, G erm any and the U.K. It focuses on the consequences o f clim ate change and future spatial developm ents in flo o d risk m anagem ent. The general question is 'H o w to m anage o u r N orth Sea coasts in 2 0 5 0 ? '. An overview o f the actions can be fou n d on w w w .sa fe coa st.o rg . In the 'C o m p a riso n between different coastal flo o d risk m e th o d o lo g ie s' action the overall g oa l is to execute different risk m e thodologies existing in the N orth Sea area on the same coastal region. A first aim is building up know ledge o f the sensitivity o f the different scientific risk m ethodologies used. A second g oa l is exchanging know ledge and experiences o f the different m e thodologies in the p artner countries so they can all im prove th e ir own m etho d olog y by learning from each other, know ing they all have different physical, so cio -eco n om ic and legal preconditions. Several elements have to be taken into a ccou n t when c o m p a rin g different num erical flo o d risk assessment methods. The flo o d risk is a m athem atical co m b in a tio n o f hazard and vu ln erability. To m ake an estim ation o f the hazard, the p ro b a b ility o f flo o d in g , the flo o d e d area, the w a ter depth etc. have to be described in a num erical way. Therefore it is necessary to obtain detailed know ledge a b o u t the tim e -d e pe n de n t failu re m echanism s. The vu lnerability, defined as 'the expected loss to the elements at risk in a specific area, as a possible consequence in the specific hazard situ a tio n ' (Blum and Thorenz, 2 0 0 5 ) is derived from land use maps, g eo -co d e d spatial statistics and several so cio -e co n o m ic data sets. Finally, co m b ining several hazard situations and the co rresponding vu lnerability, the risk can be calculated as an average value o f the loss due to flo o d in g in a specific area in a year. The im proved Flemish m e tho d olog y will be executed on an extensive test site alo ng the Belgian coast in the 'In tegrated m aster plan fo r Flanders coastal safety' a ction. C lim ate change and evolutions in spatial planning in the coastal area make it necessary to be prepared when flo o d in g occurs. C o n tro llin g future risks needs translation o f scientific results in a policy with the focus on integrated coastal zone m anagem ent. This will be w orked o ut in a m aster plan, where all stakeholders have to be involved in. References Blum H. and F. Thorenz. 2 0 0 5 . C O M R is k SP9 Pilot Study L a n g e o o g , N LW KN N o rd e n -N o rd e rn e y, G e rm a n y, pp. 1 15 (w w w .c o m ris k .o rg ). -64 -
Tijdens het congres "W a te r en K lim aat ve ra n d e rin g " op 14 en 15 o k to b e r 2008 in A... more Tijdens het congres "W a te r en K lim aat ve ra n d e rin g " op 14 en 15 o k to b e r 2008 in A n tw e rp e n w erden concrete resultaten gepresenteerd over de invloed van klim aatverandering op hydrologische en hydraulische extrem en (hoog-en laagw ater) langs Vlaamse rivieren en langs de kust. Ze zijn gebaseerd op de tussentijdse resultaten van drie lopende onderzoeks projecten v o o r de Federale en Vlaamse Overheid. V oorliggend artikel g e e ft een sam envattend overzicht van de bevindingen. Patrick W illem s, Toon Verwaest, W o u ter Vanneuville, Jean Berlam ont & Jaak M onbaliu Invloed van kUmaatverand D e hydrologische en hydraulische Im pactresultaten zijn gebaseerd op kllm aatveranderlngscenarlo's vo o r neerslag, ve rdam ping, zeespiegelstijging, w ln d k llm a a t en g o lfk llm a a t to t h e t jaar 2100. De scena rio's zijn afgeleld via h e t statistisch analyseren van sim ula ties m e t regionale Europese klim aatm odellen (CCI-HYDR onderzoeksproject v o o r Federaal W etenschapsbeleid; zie o o k H et Ingenleursblad nr. 1 2 0 0 7 [n). De sim ulaties ge ven een Indicatie van de verandering In h e t klim a a t ten gevolge van de to e kom stig e evoluties In de u its to o t van broeikasgassen. S chattingen In deze to e kom stig e u its to o t zijn g e m a a kt d o o r de Intergouvernem entele W e rkgro e p rond Klim aatverandering (IPCC). Ze zijn gebaseerd op to e ko m stve rw a ch tin ge n van de evolutie van de w e relde co nom ie, van de bevolkingstoenam e, van h e t g e b ru ik van m aterialen, van energiebronnen, enzovoort. Deze evolutie kan m eer o f m in de r duurzaam verlopen, al dan n ie t sterk rekening h o udend m e t ecologische aspecten, en m eer m ondiaal o f m eer regionaal georiënteerd. Ais gevolg hier van kunnen de concentraties van de broeikasgassen In de a tm osfeer verder blijven toenem en to t h e t jaar 2 100 m et In h e t m eest pessimistische scenario een verdrievoudiging van de CO, u itsto ot. Een ander scenario Is d a t deze eerst to enem en to t h e t m idden van de volgende e e u w en daar na o p n ie u w dalen. In h e t CCI-HYDR pro je ct zijn zo 5 sce nario's en 31 sim ulaties m e t 10 regionale klim a a tm o d e l len geanalyseerd. De brede w a a ie r aan sim ulatieresultaten w e rd na statistische ve rw erkin g sam engevat In een "la a gscenarlo" (= m inst pessimistisch scenario), "m ld d e n sce n arlo " en "h o o g sce n a rlo " (= m eest pessimistisch scenario). 2 I H e t In g e n ie u rs b la d 11-12/2008 Figuur 3: Lokaal overstromingsgebied met een gemiddelde herhallngstljd van 1 keer op de 100 jaar, voor en na klimaatverandering (Achtergrond: topografische kaart 1:10000, Nationaal Geografisch Instituut). |Hoog s o n r i o , p rta iv o o to n \ Alkftiajiscearaio Tantiwal¿:.dVoeren ] "^^c r t o p i i t i o v e V i ,* J P .*■< • •' Á--Fí ñ * f T T 1 rL?,-JÍE F t r r i f . ■ :i ; huidig klimaat ; klimaat 21 Cia * 1 I. * hnman*Mriri 4 I H e t In g e n ïe u rs b la d 11-12/2008 Klimaatverandering Meer informatie • www.kuleuven.be/hydr/CCI-HYDR CCI-HYDR onderzoeksproject over "In vlo ed van klim aa t verandering op hydrologische extremen langs rivieren en rio le ringe n" van K.U.Leuven en KMI voor Federaal W eten schapsbeleid1 41, en Onderzoeksproject over het "E ffect van klim aa tw ijzig in gen op afvoerdebieten in hoog-en laagw atersituaties en op de globale w aterbeschikbaarheid" van K.U.Leuven -A fdeling Hydraulica voor het W ater bouw kundig Laboratorium van de Vlaamse O verheid151. De auteurs Patrick WILLEMS; Jean BERLAMONT en Jaak MONBALIU z ijn w e rk z a a m bij d e K a th o lie k e U n lv e rs lte lt Leuven, A fd e lin g H y d ra u lica , K a s te e lp a rk A re n b e rg 4 0 , B E -3001 H everlee. Toon VERWAEST en Wouter VANNEUVILLE w e rk e n bij h e t W a te r b o u w k u n d ig L a b o ra to riu m van de V la a m s e O v e rh e id , B e rch e m le l 115 , B E -2 1 4 0 B o rg e rh o u t.
K a n u it een h o o g w a a r d i g D E M een b e t r o u w b a a r s t r o o m m o d e l w o r ... more K a n u it een h o o g w a a r d i g D E M een b e t r o u w b a a r s t r o o m m o d e l w o r d e n a f g e l e i d ?
Même si on rehausse toutes les digues afin de se mettre à l'abri des crues maximales historiques ... more Même si on rehausse toutes les digues afin de se mettre à l'abri des crues maximales historiques un certain danger reste toujours réel. De ce fait une autre approche de lutte contre les inondations devient actuellement compléter l'approche traditionnelle de protection contre les hauteurs d'alerte. Une estimation des dégâts est utilisée comme élément essentiel du calcul de risque. Le niveau de ce risque peut se chiffrer selon une équation, contenant la sommation de la fréquence de l'inondation observée multipliée par le montant des dégâts causés. En d'autres termes, le montant supplémentaire des dégâts causés par une inondation d'une période de retour déterminée se calcule par rapport au montant des dégâts d'une période de retour moindre. L'utilité pour la société résulte d'une comparaison objective du sentiment de sécurité, déterminé par la méthode, dans différents bassins hydrographiques. Un autre avantage se situe dans la possibilité de calculer le risque aussi bien en fonction des changements futurs apportés à l'aspect morphologique et bathymétrique du système fluvial (dragages, construction de digues, etc.), qu'en fonction des changements de l'occupation des sols du domaine inondable.
Peeters1 and W o u te r V anneuville3 1 Flanders H ydrau lic Research, M in isterie van de V laam... more Peeters1 and W o u te r V anneuville3 1 Flanders H ydrau lic Research, M in isterie van de V laam se G e m e en sch ap Berchem lei 1 1 5, B -2 1 4 0 B o rg e rh o u t, Belgium E -m ail: to o n .v e rw a e s t@ lin .v la a n d e re n .b e 2 C oa sta l D ivisio n, M in iste rie van de V laam se G e m e en sch ap V rijh a ve n stra a t 3 , B -8 4 0 0 O o s te n d e , Belgium 3 V a kg ro e p G e o g ra fie , U niversiteit G e n t K rijgslaan 281 (S8), B -9 0 0 0 G e n t, Belgium SAFECoast is an Interreg lllb project with 9 p artner organisations from the N etherlands, Flanders, D enm ark, G erm any and the U.K. It focuses on the consequences o f clim ate change and future spatial developm ents in flo o d risk m anagem ent. The general question is 'H o w to m anage o u r N orth Sea coasts in 2 0 5 0 ? '. An overview o f the actions can be fou n d on w w w .sa fe coa st.o rg . In the 'C o m p a riso n between different coastal flo o d risk m e th o d o lo g ie s' action the overall g oa l is to execute different risk m e thodologies existing in the N orth Sea area on the same coastal region. A first aim is building up know ledge o f the sensitivity o f the different scientific risk m ethodologies used. A second g oa l is exchanging know ledge and experiences o f the different m e thodologies in the p artner countries so they can all im prove th e ir own m etho d olog y by learning from each other, know ing they all have different physical, so cio -eco n om ic and legal preconditions. Several elements have to be taken into a ccou n t when c o m p a rin g different num erical flo o d risk assessment methods. The flo o d risk is a m athem atical co m b in a tio n o f hazard and vu ln erability. To m ake an estim ation o f the hazard, the p ro b a b ility o f flo o d in g , the flo o d e d area, the w a ter depth etc. have to be described in a num erical way. Therefore it is necessary to obtain detailed know ledge a b o u t the tim e -d e pe n de n t failu re m echanism s. The vu lnerability, defined as 'the expected loss to the elements at risk in a specific area, as a possible consequence in the specific hazard situ a tio n ' (Blum and Thorenz, 2 0 0 5 ) is derived from land use maps, g eo -co d e d spatial statistics and several so cio -e co n o m ic data sets. Finally, co m b ining several hazard situations and the co rresponding vu lnerability, the risk can be calculated as an average value o f the loss due to flo o d in g in a specific area in a year. The im proved Flemish m e tho d olog y will be executed on an extensive test site alo ng the Belgian coast in the 'In tegrated m aster plan fo r Flanders coastal safety' a ction. C lim ate change and evolutions in spatial planning in the coastal area make it necessary to be prepared when flo o d in g occurs. C o n tro llin g future risks needs translation o f scientific results in a policy with the focus on integrated coastal zone m anagem ent. This will be w orked o ut in a m aster plan, where all stakeholders have to be involved in. References Blum H. and F. Thorenz. 2 0 0 5 . C O M R is k SP9 Pilot Study L a n g e o o g , N LW KN N o rd e n -N o rd e rn e y, G e rm a n y, pp. 1 15 (w w w .c o m ris k .o rg ). -64 -
This chapter is built around 5 outlines: - All climate scenarios for Flanders clearly indicate an... more This chapter is built around 5 outlines: - All climate scenarios for Flanders clearly indicate an increase in the ambient temperature (e.g. by 1.5 °C to 4.4 °C in the winter and by 2.4 °C to 7.2 °C in the summer), a higher evaporation in the winter and summer and finally more precipitation during the winter by 2100. The sea level at the Flemish coast may rise by 20 to 200 cm this century. - The majority of climate scenarios indicate a drop in the average summer precipitation for Flanders. Combined with higher evaporation this will decrease the lowest river flows during dry summers by over 50 % by the end of the 21st century. The chances of severe water shortages increase as a result. - Despite a drop in summer precipitation, an increase in the number of extreme summer storms may be expected in Flanders. This increases the probability of flooding of sewers. - The risk of financial damage due to flooding varies greatly, depending on the various climate scenarios for Flanders: from a d...
Flooding is a natural phenomenon and is highly unpredictable, therefore inundations are always po... more Flooding is a natural phenomenon and is highly unpredictable, therefore inundations are always possible. In Flanders, the organization responsible for the management of fl ooding of navigable waterways is the Waterways and Marine Affairs Administration (AWZ). They believe that a good approach in dealing with fl ooding takes into account the actual effects of the inundation by analyzing risk. Damage calculation is used as an essential element in risk calculations, where risk is defi ned as a mathematical combination of the potential damage and the frequency of fl ooding. The calculated risk maps are used as a basic input in (social) cost-benefi t analysis because they allow an objective comparison of different alternatives in different hydrographical catchments. This paper describes the state of the art AWZ Flood Risk model and some applications where risk calculation is used to assess changes in time and as a tool for planning infrastructure in the future.
available at: http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/climate-impacts-and-vulnerability-2012
Het Europese Interreg-project Amice brengt 17 partners bij elkaar die betrokken zijn bij het behe... more Het Europese Interreg-project Amice brengt 17 partners bij elkaar die betrokken zijn bij het beheer van de Maas. Onder meer het Waterbouwkundig Laboratorium en nv De Scheepvaart nemen aan het project deel. Disclaimer and terms of use for full text at http://documentatiecentrum.watlab.be/owa/imis.php?module=ref&refid=206415
Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 2014
Peeters1 and W o u te r V anneuville3 1 Flanders H ydrau lic Research, M in isterie van de V laam... more Peeters1 and W o u te r V anneuville3 1 Flanders H ydrau lic Research, M in isterie van de V laam se G e m e en sch ap Berchem lei 1 1 5, B -2 1 4 0 B o rg e rh o u t, Belgium E -m ail: to o n .v e rw a e s t@ lin .v la a n d e re n .b e 2 C oa sta l D ivisio n, M in iste rie van de V laam se G e m e en sch ap V rijh a ve n stra a t 3 , B -8 4 0 0 O o s te n d e , Belgium 3 V a kg ro e p G e o g ra fie , U niversiteit G e n t K rijgslaan 281 (S8), B -9 0 0 0 G e n t, Belgium SAFECoast is an Interreg lllb project with 9 p artner organisations from the N etherlands, Flanders, D enm ark, G erm any and the U.K. It focuses on the consequences o f clim ate change and future spatial developm ents in flo o d risk m anagem ent. The general question is 'H o w to m anage o u r N orth Sea coasts in 2 0 5 0 ? '. An overview o f the actions can be fou n d on w w w .sa fe coa st.o rg . In the 'C o m p a riso n between different coastal flo o d risk m e th o d o lo g ie s' action the overall g oa l is to execute different risk m e thodologies existing in the N orth Sea area on the same coastal region. A first aim is building up know ledge o f the sensitivity o f the different scientific risk m ethodologies used. A second g oa l is exchanging know ledge and experiences o f the different m e thodologies in the p artner countries so they can all im prove th e ir own m etho d olog y by learning from each other, know ing they all have different physical, so cio -eco n om ic and legal preconditions. Several elements have to be taken into a ccou n t when c o m p a rin g different num erical flo o d risk assessment methods. The flo o d risk is a m athem atical co m b in a tio n o f hazard and vu ln erability. To m ake an estim ation o f the hazard, the p ro b a b ility o f flo o d in g , the flo o d e d area, the w a ter depth etc. have to be described in a num erical way. Therefore it is necessary to obtain detailed know ledge a b o u t the tim e -d e pe n de n t failu re m echanism s. The vu lnerability, defined as 'the expected loss to the elements at risk in a specific area, as a possible consequence in the specific hazard situ a tio n ' (Blum and Thorenz, 2 0 0 5 ) is derived from land use maps, g eo -co d e d spatial statistics and several so cio -e co n o m ic data sets. Finally, co m b ining several hazard situations and the co rresponding vu lnerability, the risk can be calculated as an average value o f the loss due to flo o d in g in a specific area in a year. The im proved Flemish m e tho d olog y will be executed on an extensive test site alo ng the Belgian coast in the 'In tegrated m aster plan fo r Flanders coastal safety' a ction. C lim ate change and evolutions in spatial planning in the coastal area make it necessary to be prepared when flo o d in g occurs. C o n tro llin g future risks needs translation o f scientific results in a policy with the focus on integrated coastal zone m anagem ent. This will be w orked o ut in a m aster plan, where all stakeholders have to be involved in. References Blum H. and F. Thorenz. 2 0 0 5 . C O M R is k SP9 Pilot Study L a n g e o o g , N LW KN N o rd e n -N o rd e rn e y, G e rm a n y, pp. 1 15 (w w w .c o m ris k .o rg ). -64 -
Tijdens het congres "W a te r en K lim aat ve ra n d e rin g " op 14 en 15 o k to b e r 2008 in A... more Tijdens het congres "W a te r en K lim aat ve ra n d e rin g " op 14 en 15 o k to b e r 2008 in A n tw e rp e n w erden concrete resultaten gepresenteerd over de invloed van klim aatverandering op hydrologische en hydraulische extrem en (hoog-en laagw ater) langs Vlaamse rivieren en langs de kust. Ze zijn gebaseerd op de tussentijdse resultaten van drie lopende onderzoeks projecten v o o r de Federale en Vlaamse Overheid. V oorliggend artikel g e e ft een sam envattend overzicht van de bevindingen. Patrick W illem s, Toon Verwaest, W o u ter Vanneuville, Jean Berlam ont & Jaak M onbaliu Invloed van kUmaatverand D e hydrologische en hydraulische Im pactresultaten zijn gebaseerd op kllm aatveranderlngscenarlo's vo o r neerslag, ve rdam ping, zeespiegelstijging, w ln d k llm a a t en g o lfk llm a a t to t h e t jaar 2100. De scena rio's zijn afgeleld via h e t statistisch analyseren van sim ula ties m e t regionale Europese klim aatm odellen (CCI-HYDR onderzoeksproject v o o r Federaal W etenschapsbeleid; zie o o k H et Ingenleursblad nr. 1 2 0 0 7 [n). De sim ulaties ge ven een Indicatie van de verandering In h e t klim a a t ten gevolge van de to e kom stig e evoluties In de u its to o t van broeikasgassen. S chattingen In deze to e kom stig e u its to o t zijn g e m a a kt d o o r de Intergouvernem entele W e rkgro e p rond Klim aatverandering (IPCC). Ze zijn gebaseerd op to e ko m stve rw a ch tin ge n van de evolutie van de w e relde co nom ie, van de bevolkingstoenam e, van h e t g e b ru ik van m aterialen, van energiebronnen, enzovoort. Deze evolutie kan m eer o f m in de r duurzaam verlopen, al dan n ie t sterk rekening h o udend m e t ecologische aspecten, en m eer m ondiaal o f m eer regionaal georiënteerd. Ais gevolg hier van kunnen de concentraties van de broeikasgassen In de a tm osfeer verder blijven toenem en to t h e t jaar 2 100 m et In h e t m eest pessimistische scenario een verdrievoudiging van de CO, u itsto ot. Een ander scenario Is d a t deze eerst to enem en to t h e t m idden van de volgende e e u w en daar na o p n ie u w dalen. In h e t CCI-HYDR pro je ct zijn zo 5 sce nario's en 31 sim ulaties m e t 10 regionale klim a a tm o d e l len geanalyseerd. De brede w a a ie r aan sim ulatieresultaten w e rd na statistische ve rw erkin g sam engevat In een "la a gscenarlo" (= m inst pessimistisch scenario), "m ld d e n sce n arlo " en "h o o g sce n a rlo " (= m eest pessimistisch scenario). 2 I H e t In g e n ie u rs b la d 11-12/2008 Figuur 3: Lokaal overstromingsgebied met een gemiddelde herhallngstljd van 1 keer op de 100 jaar, voor en na klimaatverandering (Achtergrond: topografische kaart 1:10000, Nationaal Geografisch Instituut). |Hoog s o n r i o , p rta iv o o to n \ Alkftiajiscearaio Tantiwal¿:.dVoeren ] "^^c r t o p i i t i o v e V i ,* J P .*■< • •' Á--Fí ñ * f T T 1 rL?,-JÍE F t r r i f . ■ :i ; huidig klimaat ; klimaat 21 Cia * 1 I. * hnman*Mriri 4 I H e t In g e n ïe u rs b la d 11-12/2008 Klimaatverandering Meer informatie • www.kuleuven.be/hydr/CCI-HYDR CCI-HYDR onderzoeksproject over "In vlo ed van klim aa t verandering op hydrologische extremen langs rivieren en rio le ringe n" van K.U.Leuven en KMI voor Federaal W eten schapsbeleid1 41, en Onderzoeksproject over het "E ffect van klim aa tw ijzig in gen op afvoerdebieten in hoog-en laagw atersituaties en op de globale w aterbeschikbaarheid" van K.U.Leuven -A fdeling Hydraulica voor het W ater bouw kundig Laboratorium van de Vlaamse O verheid151. De auteurs Patrick WILLEMS; Jean BERLAMONT en Jaak MONBALIU z ijn w e rk z a a m bij d e K a th o lie k e U n lv e rs lte lt Leuven, A fd e lin g H y d ra u lica , K a s te e lp a rk A re n b e rg 4 0 , B E -3001 H everlee. Toon VERWAEST en Wouter VANNEUVILLE w e rk e n bij h e t W a te r b o u w k u n d ig L a b o ra to riu m van de V la a m s e O v e rh e id , B e rch e m le l 115 , B E -2 1 4 0 B o rg e rh o u t.
K a n u it een h o o g w a a r d i g D E M een b e t r o u w b a a r s t r o o m m o d e l w o r ... more K a n u it een h o o g w a a r d i g D E M een b e t r o u w b a a r s t r o o m m o d e l w o r d e n a f g e l e i d ?
Même si on rehausse toutes les digues afin de se mettre à l'abri des crues maximales historiques ... more Même si on rehausse toutes les digues afin de se mettre à l'abri des crues maximales historiques un certain danger reste toujours réel. De ce fait une autre approche de lutte contre les inondations devient actuellement compléter l'approche traditionnelle de protection contre les hauteurs d'alerte. Une estimation des dégâts est utilisée comme élément essentiel du calcul de risque. Le niveau de ce risque peut se chiffrer selon une équation, contenant la sommation de la fréquence de l'inondation observée multipliée par le montant des dégâts causés. En d'autres termes, le montant supplémentaire des dégâts causés par une inondation d'une période de retour déterminée se calcule par rapport au montant des dégâts d'une période de retour moindre. L'utilité pour la société résulte d'une comparaison objective du sentiment de sécurité, déterminé par la méthode, dans différents bassins hydrographiques. Un autre avantage se situe dans la possibilité de calculer le risque aussi bien en fonction des changements futurs apportés à l'aspect morphologique et bathymétrique du système fluvial (dragages, construction de digues, etc.), qu'en fonction des changements de l'occupation des sols du domaine inondable.
Peeters1 and W o u te r V anneuville3 1 Flanders H ydrau lic Research, M in isterie van de V laam... more Peeters1 and W o u te r V anneuville3 1 Flanders H ydrau lic Research, M in isterie van de V laam se G e m e en sch ap Berchem lei 1 1 5, B -2 1 4 0 B o rg e rh o u t, Belgium E -m ail: to o n .v e rw a e s t@ lin .v la a n d e re n .b e 2 C oa sta l D ivisio n, M in iste rie van de V laam se G e m e en sch ap V rijh a ve n stra a t 3 , B -8 4 0 0 O o s te n d e , Belgium 3 V a kg ro e p G e o g ra fie , U niversiteit G e n t K rijgslaan 281 (S8), B -9 0 0 0 G e n t, Belgium SAFECoast is an Interreg lllb project with 9 p artner organisations from the N etherlands, Flanders, D enm ark, G erm any and the U.K. It focuses on the consequences o f clim ate change and future spatial developm ents in flo o d risk m anagem ent. The general question is 'H o w to m anage o u r N orth Sea coasts in 2 0 5 0 ? '. An overview o f the actions can be fou n d on w w w .sa fe coa st.o rg . In the 'C o m p a riso n between different coastal flo o d risk m e th o d o lo g ie s' action the overall g oa l is to execute different risk m e thodologies existing in the N orth Sea area on the same coastal region. A first aim is building up know ledge o f the sensitivity o f the different scientific risk m ethodologies used. A second g oa l is exchanging know ledge and experiences o f the different m e thodologies in the p artner countries so they can all im prove th e ir own m etho d olog y by learning from each other, know ing they all have different physical, so cio -eco n om ic and legal preconditions. Several elements have to be taken into a ccou n t when c o m p a rin g different num erical flo o d risk assessment methods. The flo o d risk is a m athem atical co m b in a tio n o f hazard and vu ln erability. To m ake an estim ation o f the hazard, the p ro b a b ility o f flo o d in g , the flo o d e d area, the w a ter depth etc. have to be described in a num erical way. Therefore it is necessary to obtain detailed know ledge a b o u t the tim e -d e pe n de n t failu re m echanism s. The vu lnerability, defined as 'the expected loss to the elements at risk in a specific area, as a possible consequence in the specific hazard situ a tio n ' (Blum and Thorenz, 2 0 0 5 ) is derived from land use maps, g eo -co d e d spatial statistics and several so cio -e co n o m ic data sets. Finally, co m b ining several hazard situations and the co rresponding vu lnerability, the risk can be calculated as an average value o f the loss due to flo o d in g in a specific area in a year. The im proved Flemish m e tho d olog y will be executed on an extensive test site alo ng the Belgian coast in the 'In tegrated m aster plan fo r Flanders coastal safety' a ction. C lim ate change and evolutions in spatial planning in the coastal area make it necessary to be prepared when flo o d in g occurs. C o n tro llin g future risks needs translation o f scientific results in a policy with the focus on integrated coastal zone m anagem ent. This will be w orked o ut in a m aster plan, where all stakeholders have to be involved in. References Blum H. and F. Thorenz. 2 0 0 5 . C O M R is k SP9 Pilot Study L a n g e o o g , N LW KN N o rd e n -N o rd e rn e y, G e rm a n y, pp. 1 15 (w w w .c o m ris k .o rg ). -64 -